The methodology combination of a national foresight process in Germany

In September 2007, the Federal German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) launched a new foresight process which aimed at four specific targets. To achieve them, a tailor-made combination of methods was applied. This paper focuses on the concept design of the process and explains one of the methods — the future online survey — in more detail.The German Foresight Process of the BMBF delivers results on different levels: broader future fields as well as single future topics. Both kinds are relevant and selected according to a set of criteria. Some of the results of this foresight process will be directly integrated into national policy activities, others are just more indirectly filtered into the innovation system of the specific sectors in the country. The future fields are all cross-cutting issues based on science and technology. All of them are specifically knowledge dynamic fields.     

Future Markets-Radar: A case study of applied strategic foresight

This article describes a project in corporate practice. A large European corporation conducted a project called ‘Future Markets-Radar’ to identify future market opportunities that lie beyond their present attention. The top executives, who were deeply involved in the project, used a systematic process based on the author's Five Futures Glasses and a comprehensive semantic model of objects of thought, called the Eltville Model and a set of appropriate tools to achieve the goals of the project. The results laid the foundation for future success in future markets, solidified and enriched the corporate strategy and increased the future competence of the people involved. This article proposes a model of the corporate disciplines and goals of future management, a definition of what a future market is, key questions on future markets, a process for early recognition of future markets as well as a summary of the project's results and benefits.     

The future of the future: Strategic foresight in Latin America

With few differences in timing, future studies in Latin America were initiated with a linear conception of reality. Orchestrated with techniques such as the Delphi, future studies were supported by mathematical principles of probability. Several countries have surpassed this stage while moving into strategic foresight. Strategic foresight analyzes the future as a multiple reality. In other words, it means thinking differently and not reading reality in a linear manner. It means accepting that there is not one future but several futures and that one question could have more than one answer.This change has demanded a shift in mentality. The presence of the disciplines in universities is of vital importance. For example, the Technological Institute of Monterrey (Mexico) and the Universidad Externado de Colombia (Bogota) offer foresight and strategy programs at the graduate level.This article describes how different individuals, groups, agencies and institutions in Latin America have emerged thanks to the support provided by the science and technology governmental agencies of each country. The author provides examples from different countries including Colombia, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. Currently, strategic foresight is slowly gaining recognition and acceptance as a compass for productive sectors and as a generator of competitiveness.However, despite the contributions of strategic foresight, Latin American countries, with the exception of some of the above-mentioned countries, have struggled to take off into the future. The role of strategic foresight can become the driving force behind this awakening, if the challenge of linking global trends with local contextualization through scenarios is accepted.     

Text mining as a valuable tool in foresight exercises: A study on nanotechnology

Since its inception in 2001, the Center for Management and Strategic Studies (CGEE) has as its main activity the conduct of foresight studies in support of the decision making process related to the establishment of ST&I policies and activities in Brazil. The methodology used by the center combines quantitative and qualitative methods. Explicit and tacit knowledge is mobilized in the process of developing complementary or differentiated visions of the future.Most of the studies conducted by CGEE begin with data monitoring activities, making use of text mining techniques. One case study carried out by CGEE on the field of nanotechnology is presented. In this case, text mining was used at the first stage followed by qualitative techniques. Results were used to guide government agencies to fund nanotechnology R&D to help raise the competitiveness of several sectors of the Brazilian economy.     

The development of technology foresight: A review

The term “foresight” has long been used to describe readiness to deal with long-term issues (especially on the part of governments). This term “Technology Foresight” took off in the 1990s, as European, and then other, countries sought new policy tools to deal with problems in their science, technology and innovation systems. Large-scale exercises drew in numerous stakeholders as sources of knowledge and influence, and the prominence of these exercises led to “foresight” being used much more widely to describe futures activities of many kinds. While few new tools and techniques have been developed in these exercises, they represent an unprecedented diffusion of forecasting, planning and participatory approaches to long-term issues. Futures approaches are, in consequence, far more officially acceptable and legitimate than in the past.     

Systemic analysis of UK foresight results: Joint application of integrated management model and roadmapping

This paper proposes a new systems approach to foresight studies. The paper will first indicate the complex and conflicting nature of long-term decision-making process. Then, the need for systems approach will be highlighted by the analysis of 1995 UK Delphi survey results and the scenarios of 2000 UK foresight scenarios. The paper proposes two methodologies, namely Integrated Management Model (IMM) and Roadmapping, in order to overcome challenges introduced by the multidimensional characteristics and complex nature of foresight studies. Based on systemic approach, IMM offers a useful way of developing long-term normative policies and strategies and their transformations into actions by considering necessary changes in organizational structures and behaviors. In addition, roadmapping is used to capture, manipulate and manage information to decrease complexity in the foresight by constructing roadmaps. In the paper, IMM and roadmapping are employed first to analyze UK foresight results and then to develop a new methodology to formulate Delphi events and scenarios for the successful implementation of foresight. This paper also promotes the integrated use of foresight techniques such as scenarios and Delphi rather than one for another.     

Multiple perspectives on planning for emergencies: An introduction to the special issue on planning and foresight for emergency preparedness and management

This introduction highlights the diversity of national localities, research methods, case studies, and topics covered by the papers selected for inclusion in the special issue on “Planning and foresight methodologies in emergency preparedness and management.” It then provides a detailed summary of each study, emphasizing what the editors feel are the most important contributions. Concluding remarks include a call for future studies that are needed. An example is planning for ways of supporting and integrating citizen participation in all phases of crisis management, a topic that is missing from this collection.     

Strategic foresight and organizational learning: A survey and critical analysis

Learning phenomena are a growing concern for strategic foresight, especially with respect to the question of integration of reflection and action. Although an agreement seems to emerge between practitioners and theorists about strong ties linking strategic foresight and learning (in particular organizational learning), the true nature of this link remains ambiguous. This article seeks to shed light on this link and to analyze the cognitive dimensions of foresight through a critical survey. The investigation follows the original ambivalence between foresight attitude and activity thus underscoring not only the virtues of foresight in learning phenomena, but also the limits of the usual literature.     

Commercial use of GM crop technology: Identifying the drivers using life cycle methodology in a technology foresight framework

The complexity and advanced nature of modern biotechnology, and its extensive implications for society regarding prosperity, risk and ethics, make a view of the future that is comprehensible and transparent to society desirable. The objective of this feasibility study was to investigate methodologies for strategic planning and regulatory decision-making in technologies involving genetically modified (GM) crops. The planning and regulatory decisions of both the biotechnology industry and public authorities are considered. In the study, knowledge and opinion about a well-defined problem complex are systematically brought together in the consultation of a larger number of stakeholders and experts representing as many major perspectives as possible. On the basis of a test case on the development of a GM-ryegrass, this paper suggests a methodological approach to the uncertainties faced by the biotech industry and public authorities when GM crops are commercialized. The method used was a technology foresight (TF) framework, using a life cycle inventory (LCI) to define the problem complex, a stakeholder panel to identify drivers (of change) that influence the direction of future developments, and weighted stakeholder questionnaires to prioritize these drivers. Once quantified, the weighted stakeholder opinion generated a clear criterion for prioritizing drivers that were judged to be important in the future development of a GM-ryegrass but whose precise impact was uncertain. The four drivers prioritized were: being the first to market the GM-ryegrass, an efficient network on biomolecular know-how, public dialogue and participation in regulation procedures and utility value.     

The value contribution of strategic foresight: Insights from an empirical study of large European companies

This paper focuses on exploring the potential and empirically observable value creation of strategic foresight activities in firms. We first review the literature on strategic foresight, innovation management and strategic management in order to identify the potential value contributions. We use survey data from 77 large multinational firms to assess how much value is generated from formalized strategic foresight practices in these firms. We show that it is possible to capture value through (1) an enhanced capacity to perceive change, (2) an enhanced capacity to interpret and respond to change, (3) influencing other actors, (4) and through an enhanced capacity for organizational learning.     

Bridging the gap between foresight and market research: Integrating methods to assess the economic potential of nanotechnology

This paper discusses how to bridge the gap between foresight research oriented to the long-term, and traditional market research oriented to the medium to short term, when applied to an early stage of a technology's life cycle. It proposes using an integrating approach, i.e. a combination of methods and both foresight and traditional market research. A mix of complementary methods for the acquisition and analysis of data is presented in a case study. This helps to overcome the deficits of some qualitative foresight methods and quantitative methods often used in traditional market research and allows us to examine research results from the different methods applied both on their own and as a group. In the absence of a single fully-fledged and accepted economic approach, this paper argues that combined market research and foresight modules are the best possible approach for analyzing the economic potential of emerging technologies like nanotechnology. In the future, similar applications of such market foresight modules may be useful, for example, as elements of foresight. They will also be useful in studies of emerging technologies (e.g. converging technologies, cognitive science and Web 2.0) where traditional market research does not produce a realistic market assessment.     

高技术企业技术与战略融合研究

基于对技术与企业战略的关联机理的剖析,提出高技术企业中两者的融合模式,包括将技术融入战略流程和与技术变革相应的战略变更。详尽阐述了融合过程中需重点考虑的问题及使用的主要技术工具,以及应对多变技术环境所应实施的战略变更。     

Strategic foresight in corporate organizations: Handling the effect and response uncertainty of technology and social drivers of change

Today many companies in many industries put a lot of efforts into monitoring and investigating emerging drivers of change in their business environment, particularly in relation to new technologies and events in the social, economic, political and ecological landscapes which surround their industry. So far scholars in the literature on foresight and future studies focused on the techniques and practices for analysing the “state” uncertainty about the likely path of evolution of emerging drivers of change. Anyway, less attention was devoted to the “effect” uncertainty about the impact of drivers of change on the competitive position of the firm and to the “response” uncertainty about how to take advantage of these drivers. These are the main issues we take into account, through a field research on firms that, notwithstanding they were able to properly assess the likely evolution (state uncertainty) of relevant drivers of change in their industry, either were successful or dramatically failed in handling the effect and response uncertainty of these drivers. Moreover, we carried out multiple case studies of some large companies that have established an organizational unit dedicated to strategic foresight. Overall, the results of our research may contribute to improve the effectiveness of strategic foresight and to increase its value added to the planning process of corporate firms, while providing helpful insight to public organizations that promote foresight exercises for enhancing the competitiveness of local firms.     

Hindsight,insight, and foresight: a multi-level structural variation approach to the study of a scientific field

In this article we introduce a multi-level structural variation approach to the study of a scientific field. The approach is motivated by an explanatory and computational theory of transformative discovery and novel structural variation metrics derived from the theory. We integrate the theoretical framework with a visual analytic process that enables an analyst to study the literature of a scientific field across multiple levels of aggregation and decomposition, including the field as a whole, specialties, topics and predicates. We demonstrate the use of this approach through a study of regenerative medicine.     

Firms as the source of innovation and growth: the evolution of technological competence

It is argued that the firm is the principal source of innovation and growth, a device for the establishment of technological competence, and for its continued development over time. Markets, products and background knowledge may change quite dramatically over time. Yet as a result of the cumulative nature of learning in the production processes of firms, the profile of corporate technological competence will tend to persist over quite long periods, provided there is institutional continuity. Within the same firm, competence may evolve into related areas, but the firm's technological origins will remain identifiable in its subsequent trajectories. However, if the institution itself changes more dramatically, this technological persistence may be disrupted. Supporting evidence is provided from data on the patenting of 30 large US and European companies, which have been continuously active since the interwar period. The science and the knowledge base, and the composition of products and markets may shift quite radically, but the firm's productive and technological system itself is potentially more stable. The firm provides a vehicle for potential institutional continuity and a device for managing transitions within the economic system.     

互补性资产视角下绿色创新与企业绩效关系研究

学术界和企业界对绿色创新与企业绩效的关系一直存在争议,重要原因在于缺乏对企业资源与能力的情境探讨。针对绿色创新实践中遇到的惯例刚性与资源刚性,基于互补性资产视角对黑龙江省装备制造企业进行实证研究,结果表明：绿色创新与企业绩效之间呈U型关系;作为绿色创新投入的互补性资产,协同柔性和非沉淀性冗余资源对绿色创新与企业绩效的关系具有显著的正向调节作用,而资源柔性具有负向影响;非沉淀性冗余资源能够强化协同柔性对绿色创新与企业绩效的正向调节作用。最后,基于实证研究结果,提出了促进企业实现从“绿”到“金”的管理启示。     

治理理论综述——以法律、组织和市场为视角

公司治理研究和解决的问题是如何使资金的提供者按时收回投资并获得合理的回报,其研究视角不仅在于现代的公司组织,还包括了市场和法律体系。本文从法律、组织和市场的角度,对公司治理的相关文献进行回顾。     

Bridging the gap between technological possibilities and people:: Involving people in the early phases of technology development

Technology provides endless promising possibilities to support people's lives. In reality, it is not a matter of what is possible, but rather a matter of how and when technology will be integrated, accepted and adopted by people. However, conventionally within organizations the areas of technology development and market research are not closely related nor applied in the process of innovation and do not always share the same scope. In that sense there is a gap between the potential of technology and humankind's preferences.This paper discusses the current areas of technology development and market research in a business environment and proposes an integrated approach to bridge the gap between technology and people, in which people, rather than market sizes become central in the development of technology. In addition, it also describes how this approach of people-driven innovation is brought into practice through the development of early experience demonstrators. The core focus of this paper is on the processes and practices regarding innovation within an organization, rather than the adoption of innovation by users or the rate of the adoption of a marketed solution (Rogers, 1995 [E.M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations, The Free Press, New York, 1995. [1]]).     

Environmental jolts, entrepreneurial actions and value creation: A case study of Trend Micro

This paper draws on a single longitudinal case study of Trend Micro, a leading anti-virus company, to examine its entrepreneurial, value-creating trajectory. Applying and extending an entrepreneurship perspective, the paper manifests positive effect, rather than negative effect, of environmental jolt on entrepreneurial actions including opportunity identification and opportunity exploitation. We find that environmental jolt is likely to shift customers' cognition, which is an important source of opportunity and, in turn, catalyzes opportunity exploitation through innovations for value creation. The paper concludes with a model of the value-creating trajectory of Trend Micro. Implications for research and practices are discussed.     

On the economics of R&D and technological collaborations: Insights and results from the project colline

Research collaborations involve co-production and exchange of knowledge across organisational boundaries. They involve governance of intellectual property rights and partners' use of collectively produced knowledge. The principal findings arise from case studies of consortia governance in biotechnology and software and substantial variety in arrangements is identified. This variety may be explained by the appropriability of knowledge in particular research domains as well as by the nature of the knowledge generated. Consequences of governance rules are explored for European research consortia and for collective standards making activities. The analysis indicates several policy conclusions: government policy has an important role in overcoming market failures in consortia formation; adoption of any uniform intellectual property rights model for consortia would be likely to reduce research productivity; policies aimed at stimulating consortia formation must take account of the nature of knowledge that is to be exchanged.