Re-evaluation of global innovation index based on a structural equation model

The Global Innovation Index (GII) was proposed to observe the innovation capability and efficiency levels of individual countries using input and output factors. However, it does not consider potential structural relationships among factors affecting the innovation performance of a country. In this study, we proposed a structural equation model (SEM) based on the hypothesised national innovation structure among seven factors representing inputs (institution, human capital and research, infrastructure, market sophistication, and business sophistication) and outputs (knowledge and technology outputs, and creative outputs). Using GII data from 2013, we discovered that business sophistication and infrastructure have the strongest direct and indirect effects on creative output, respectively. In addition, a new ranking is obtained based on the fitted SEM. We provide feedback information to improve innovation capabilities.     

Visioning the regional future: Globalization and regional transformation of Rabat/Casablanca

The mainstream literature on globalization and regional transformation emphasizes two major perspectives. The first perspective combines global city theory with macro theories of transformations with a normative bias often leading to deterministic conceptualisations of globalization links to regional transformation. The other perspective emphasizes economy as the most important if not the only pushing factor for regional transformations with little attention to all transformations involving soft and informal structures The latter may be vital for such transformation. This paper takes a completely new approach namely to analyse local stakeholders' visions of regional transformation of the Rabat/Casablanca region in face the challenges that globalization poses.     

Predicting the pattern of international trade in the neoclassical model: a synthesis

I propose a framework that takes a set of conceivable outcomes as the primitive and a prediction is defined by identifying a subset on the set of conceivable outcomes. This notion of predictability serves as an organizing principle for characterizing pattern of trade predictions in single economy and integrated equilibrium formulations of the neoclassical trade model. I identify allocative efficiency as the unifying subset selection criterion for the different formulations of the neoclassical trade model, ranging from Ricardo’s (in Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, reprinted by J. M. Dent, London, in Everyman’s library, 1817) original comparative advantage formulation to the multi-cone Heckscher–Ohlin specification with multiple countries, goods and factors. I am grateful to comments from Jim Anderson, Chris Starmer, Catia Montagna, Peter Neary, two anonymous referees, as well as participants at the June 2007 GEP Conference on ‘New Directions in International Trade Theory’. I am grateful for financial support from NSF research grant SES-0452991 and from Leverhulme Trust Programme grant F114/BF.     

Markov状态转换机制的GARCH模型研究

为了更好地描述存在结构转换的时间序列的波动性,将马尔科夫链和状态转换机制引入GARCH模型,定义了MRS-GARCH模型,使GARCH模型的预测精度和持续性问题得到改善。鉴于还没有MRS-GARCH模型的稳定性和矩的存在性的相关研究,因此,基于马尔科夫链的理论以及几何遍历性和有限矩的简单假设,并使用漂移函数阐述了MRS-GARCH的稳定性和矩的存在性的充分条件。     

保持党的先进性是中国共产党始终关注的根本性重大课题

中国共产党依靠先进性实现了民族的独立和人民的解放，实现了国家的强盛和人民的富裕。保持先进性是中国共产党建党以来一直十分重视的重大课题，也是党在建设中的长期任务和永恒主题。中国共产党之所以执政并长期执政，最根本的一条就是保持了先进性。中国共产党能否始终保持先进性，关系到党和人民事业的兴旺发达，关系到国家的长治久安，关系到党的执政能力的提高和执政地位的巩固。     

Identification of house price bubbles using user cost in a state space model

This article studies how much variation in house prices results from nonfundamental factors. We propose a relative valuation approach to quantifying a bubble in housing by incorporating the housing User Cost into a state space model. We find that UK house prices were undervalued from January 1995 to May 2001 and subsequently moved into a bubble over the period to October 2012. Our results support the bounded rationality hypothesis in the long run. However, we also find that the irrational and the rational expectation hypotheses can coexist in the short run when explosive bubbles are driven by price dynamics.     

本科生导师式教育模式的研究

实施本科生导师式教育模式是本科教育改革的一种探索。经过本课题组近三年的实践研究,获得了本科生导师式教育模式所带来的积极效果,具体如下：本科生导师式教育模式有利于学生个性的发展、潜能的发展、学业的进步,有利于新生适应大学生活,有利于培养学生的实践能力和创新能力,有利于提高学生的就业能力和创业能力,有利于对学生进行思想和心理的指导;根据学生家庭情况和不同阶段的特点以及适当聘请校外导师和学生导师,可充分发挥本科生导师式教育模式的作用。     

《国际结算》课程教学模式与教学方法综述

国际结算课程是高等院校金融贸易等专业的必修课程,具有很强的实用性和操作性,同时又具有国际性、交叉性的特点,但学生在学习的时候感觉内容枯燥、难以掌握。为了不断适应和满足社会对专业人才素质的要求,以及教学的需要,真正提高课堂教学质量,充分调动学生学习国际结算的潜能和积极性,需要不断地探索和总结合适的教学模式和教学方法。     

石化权证在GARCH模型下的实证检验

股票价格的波动率特征是股票衍生品价格的决定性因素。Black&Scholes假设股票价格服从几何布朗运动,其重要的假设条件是波动率为一个常数。但是,越来越多的实证研究结果表明,股票收益率存在显著的尖峰厚尾现象,其波动率存在明显的时变性特征。因此,放宽波动率恒定条件,并且研究股票波动率的变动特征,对认购权证的正确定价具有重要意义。     

基于模糊综合评判的企业信息化项目风险评价模型

信息经济时代,企业面临的经营环境复杂多变,企业之间的竞争更加剧烈,对企业的应变能力、创新能力、管理水平提出了更高的要求。而信息化项目的实施是企业实现管理创新、提高管理水平、增强核心竞争力的重要途径。企业信息化项目的特性决定了信息化的实施存在较大的风险,对信息化项目进行有效的风险评价是企业信息化项目风险管理的关键所在。本文根据企业信息化项目风险影响因素的分析,建立了企业信息化项目风险因素指标体系,应用模糊综合评判理论构建了企业信息化项目风险的多级模糊综合评价模型,并结合一个应用算例进行了模糊综合评判,结果表明该模型是可行的、有效的,能为企业管理者在信息化项目管理中度量风险和制定防范措施时提供有价值的参考。     

江浙模式及民营经济在全国的发展

Along with the implementation of reform and open up policy in China, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, two provinces have got rapid economic development and greatly contributed to China’s market transition. Jiangsu, Zhejiang together with Shanghai, have shaped China’s economic heartland—the Yangtze River Delta Economic Region. Undoubtedly, the private sector is the driving force for the tremendous economic development in the Yangtze River Delta, particularly for facilitating institutional transition and economic development. Fortunately, this kind of economic development driven by the private sector was not only restricted in the Yangtze River Delta Region, but also across the country as it has been gradually extended nationwide. This paper is to look at the development of the private sector in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas and particularly trace its fantastic effects on nationwide economic development and market transition.      

Economic performance of state‐owned enterprises under the Chinese Communist Party's supervision: Some reflection on China's economic reform

This study examines the economic behaviour of state‐owned enterprises in China with special emphasis on the role of the state's sole party as either an agent (management) or supervisor in the enterprises. It is found that with the construction of an incentive‐compatible compensation design and the Chinese Communist Party orchestrating an appropriate objective guideline for its members to follow, state or socialist capitalism could still achieve efficient economic performance. If party members did not behave prudently or pursued their personal interests instead of the state's overall welfare, there could be grave consequences, including corruption, nepotism or even the breakdown of the system.     

A GM(1,1)–Markov chain combined model with an application to predict the number of Chinese international airlines

In this paper, we propose a new dynamic analysis model which combines the first-order one-variable grey differential equation model (abbreviated as GM(1,1) model) from grey system theory and Markov chain model from stochastic process theory. We abbreviate the combined GM(1,1)–Markov chain (MC) model as MCGM(1,1) model. This combined model takes advantage of the high predictable power of GM(1,1) model and at the same time take advantage of the prediction power of Markov chain modelling on the discretized states based on the GM(1,1) modelling residual sequence. For prediction accuracy improvements, Taylor approximation is applied to MCGM(1,1) model. We call the improved version as T-MCGM(1,1) model. As an example, we use the statistical data of the number of Chinese international airlines from 1985 to 2003 for a validation of the effectiveness of the T-MCGM(1,1) model.     

Porter model of economic development at the back of an envelope

The Porter model of economic development links the phases of development with national competitiveness. His model lies at the heart of the Global Competitiveness Index. It appears, curiously enough, that there is nowhere in the economics literature a concise explanation of the Porter model of economic development. This paper not only fills this gap but also draws the line of separation between formal economic models and narrative economic models; provides a rigorous presentation of Porter model of economic development; distinguishes between the Porter development path and Porter's law of economic development; strips Porter model to its bare essentials in a single picture; and finally, shows that the Porter model satisfies the condition known as the way the world works (www) constraint.     

Compare the model of Iran national quality award and the EFQM model

Nowadays, there are a lot of challenges for global processing in countries economic companies. One of the important reasons is lack of changes that must be with world-class technology for making a competition in industry, and another important reason is lack of organized distinction for managers. Most of high rank managers don＇t have good points for charging and worry about it. In this essay, there have been excellence organized model of EFQM and Iran national quality award which are compared by a case study, and finally, it has suggested using a native model.     

Student-t distribution based VAR-MGARCH: an application of the DCC model on international portfolio risk management

Significant second-moment transmission effects and obvious time-varying patterns of correlation coefficients among major equity and currency markets in the US, Japan and the UK are found to exist. Such observations inspire the time-varying setting of dynamic conditional correlation coefficients in MGARCH models. On the other hand, the multivariate Student-t distribution is suitable for analysing the visible leptokurtosis that is common in financial markets. Both are important for international portfolio risk management. Thus, a comparison on the hedging efficiency of hypothetical portfolios consisting of stock and currency future positions is conducted in order to justify the multivariate Student-t distribution based on the DCC-MGARCH model.     

Derivatives and the financialisation of the Italian state

The existing literature on financialisation has devoted insufficient attention to how governments wield the market-based practices and technologies of financial innovation to pursue statecraft objectives. Because of this inattention, scholars have missed the opportunity to examine a crucial facet of the financialisation of the state. To remedy this limitation, the present article investigates how and why the Italian government designed derivatives-based strategies during the 1993–9 period. It argues that these tactics gained momentum in the context of the political struggles that developed in Italy beginning in the late 1980s. In particular, the study shows how a neoliberal-reformist alliance came to power and used financial innovation to comply with the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) admission criteria. EMU dynamics enhanced the power position of the neoliberal-reformist coalition vis-à-vis the country's traditional political and business establishment. This work offers insights that go beyond the specificities of the Italian case. It encourages further research on how governments in other countries simultaneously exposed state institutions to financial speculation and gained access to a range of new instruments through which they could manage state affairs in a financialised manner.     

The evolution of stock market efficiency in the US: a non-Bayesian time-varying model approach

A non-Bayesian time-varying model is developed by introducing the concept of the degree of market efficiency that varies over time. This model may be seen as a reflection of the idea that continuous technological progress alters the trading environment over time. With new methodologies and a new measure of the degree of market efficiency, we examine whether the US stock market evolves over time. In particular, a time-varying autoregressive (TV-AR) model is employed. Our main findings are: (i) the US stock market has evolved over time and the degree of market efficiency has cyclical fluctuations with a considerably long periodicity, from 30 to 40 years; and (ii) the US stock market has been efficient with the exception of four times in our sample period: during the long recession of 1873–1879; the recession of 1902–1904; the New Deal era; and the recession of 1957–1958 and soon after it. It is then shown that our results are partly consistent with the view of behavioural finance.     

改善我国公共服务不均等状况的财政政策着力点探讨

我国公共服务不均等的状况已经得到了各方面的关注。本文借鉴国内外经验,选择泰尔指数作为衡量公共服务均等化的指标,并通过实证检验指出我国公共服务均等化存在的问题。与过去部分研究结论不同的是,本文认为我国区域内不均等远大于区域间的不均等,省内的不均等远大于省际的不均等,城镇内的不均等远大于农村内的不均等。在此基础上,本文简要分析了区域内、省内与城镇内不均等问题的成因以及财政政策的着力点。     

基于突变级数法的高新技术企业成长性研究

针对湖北省上市高新技术企业成长性问题,分析了影响企业成长性的主要因素,建立起一套企业成长性评价指标体系。根据该指标体系,选取湖北省上市高新技术企业的典型样本,运用突变级数法建立起成长性评价模型,根据模型结果对样本企业的成长性进行分析。