Federal excise tax increase and its effects on U.S. tobacco production

Using the equilibrium displacement model, we examine the impact on tobacco farms of the decrease in cigarette sales due to the increase in prices induced by the federal excise tax hike that went to effect on April 1, 2009. First we estimate the effect of the increase in the federal excise tax on cigarette price and sales. Then, we estimate the effect of the decrease in cigarette sales on tobacco farms. Results suggest that under a scenario of market power implied by a conjectural elasticity of 0.11 manufactures could charge $0.23 per pack more than the federal excise tax increase, which would be enough to offset the estimated 1.42 billion-pack sales decline and to maintain the industry’s revenue net of taxes. This decrease in cigarette sales induced by the increase in the federal excise tax would result in the tobacco leaf output and price declining by 2.85 and 0.41%, respectively. As a result, the tobacco leaf sector would sustain a loss of 3.25% in revenue, amounting to nearly $48.4 million.     

Effects of Local,State, and Federal Minimum Wage on Employment Growth among Teenagers in the Restaurant Industry

Over the last 20 years, local municipalities have been implementing minimum wage ordinances at an accelerated rate. These local changes, along with state and federal minimum wage increases, are included in the examination of the impact of minimum wage hikes on employment growth of teenagers in the food services and drinking places subsector. While most minimum wage research focuses on employment levels, recent contributions highlight the importance of analyzing employment growth. Following this trend, this study focuses on teenagers within the restaurant industry to test for the impact of minimum wages on inexperienced workers. Using a distributed-lag model, the results show that an increase in a minimum wage reduces employment growth for teenagers within this subsector. The effects of minimum wages within this demographic were most strongly felt in the first three years following an increase in minimum wage. Specifically, the results show that a 10% increase in the minimum wage decreases the employment growth rate by approximately 2.27% over a period of three years.

     

A NOTE ON THE NONLINEAR EFFECT OF MINIMUM WAGE INCREASES

We use a labor search model with worker experience to assess the effects of minimum wage increases. Minimum wages can have nonlinear effects on unemployment as higher minimum wages become binding for larger portions of the underlying productivity distribution. The model is used to assess the increases proposed by the Obama Administration from $7.25 an hour to $9.00 and then to $10.10 per hour. We find that minimum wage increases have large effects on youth unemployment. These large effects cast doubt on using past empirical estimates of the effects of minimum wages that do not account for potential nonlinearities. (JEL E24, J08, J24, J64)     

A $15 federal minimum wage is outside historical experience

Many economists and policymakers implicitly assume that “previous, modest increases in the minimum wage” are informative about the effects of a $15 minimum. Economic theory predicts that the employment effects of the minimum wage should vary with the composition of affected occupations and industries. I find that a $15 minimum would affect a far broader set of occupations and industries than prior increases, calling into question whether we can extrapolate from past experience with the minimum wage. I find that the frontier of historical experience is a federal minimum between $9 and $11.     

WHEN IS A GOOD TIME TO RAISE THE MINIMUM WAGE?

I analyze changes in the target efficiency of the federal minimum wage over the past 25 years. Using static simulation methods I find that minimum wage target efficiency is currently close to its 25‐year peak—of the total monetary benefits generated by a 12% increase in the federal minimum wage, 16.8% would flow to workers in poverty. This exceeds the least target efficient year over this period by 4.7 percentage points and is only 0.6 percentage points below the peak. Furthermore, I find a very strong positive relationship between minimum wage target efficiency and the real federal minimum wage. The implication is that, from an efficiency standpoint, a good time to raise the minimum wage is when it is already high. This discovery raises the possibility that the minimum wage increases the employment of low‐skilled poor individuals relative to the employment of low‐skilled non‐poor individuals. Moreover, this discovery may bolster the rationale for an indexed minimum wage whereby it is prevented from falling to less efficient levels. (JEL J21, J31, J38)     

Full wages,part-time employment and the minimum wage

The economic effects of the minimum wage have become increasingly ambiguous. Historically, economists have asserted that increases in the minimum wage result in increases in unemployment. This relationship has been challenged recently by Card and Krueger, Katz and Krueger, and Card. These authors have provided empirical evidence that seems to indicate that there is no relationship between various economic variables (such as level of employment, and product price, among others) and the minimum wage. In addition, these authors have not provided a cogent presentation of the effects of the minimum wage on part-time employment. This study examines, from a theoretical standpoint, the effects of the minimum wage on employment. Furthermore, we emphasize the distinction between money wages and full wages; and the role that part-time employmentplays in the analysis. After incorporating these factors into a theoretical presentation, we provide empirical evidence by way of an OLS regression. We conclude that firms respond to increases in the minimum wage by altering the level of part-time employment. By doing this, firms are able to absorb the minimum wage increase because part timers receive fewer fringe benefits.     

THE SHORT‐RUN EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF RECENT MINIMUM WAGE CHANGES: EVIDENCE FROM THE AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY

This paper presents early evidence on the employment effects of state minimum wage increases enacted between January 2013 and January 2015. As of 2015, we estimate that relatively large minimum wage increases (defined as those exceeding $1) reduced employment among low‐skilled population groups by just over 1 percentage point. Smaller minimum wage increases, as well as increases linked to inflation indexation provisions, appear to have had much smaller (and possibly positive) effects on employment over our sample period. The estimates thus raise the potential importance of nonlinearities in the minimum wage's effects, which are consistent with standard models of the labor market. (JEL H11, J08, J23)     

Flexible Labour,Firm Performance and the Dutch Job Creation Miracle

Unlike internal (‘functional’) forms of flexibility of labour, external (‘numerical’) forms of flexibility (i.e. high shares of people on temporary contract or a high turnover of personnel) yield substantial savings on a firm’s wage bill. Savings on wage bills lead to higher job growth, but do not translate into higher sales growth. Externally flexible labour appears to be related to lower labour productivity growth, the effects being different for innovating vs non‐innovating firms. We discuss these findings from firm‐level and worker‐level data against the background of the Dutch job creation miracle during the 1980s and 1990s. Modest wage increases and flexibilization of labour markets may indeed create lots of jobs. However, this is likely to happen at the expense of labour productivity growth, raising serious doubts about the long‐run sustainability of a low‐productivity–high‐employment growth path.     

THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MINIMUM-WAGE INCREASES IN REDUCING POVERTY: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE

Extending the work of Card and Krueger, we find minimum-wage increases (1988–2003) did not affect poverty rates overall, or among the working poor or among single mothers. Despite employment growth among single mothers, most gainers lived in nonpoor families and most working poor already had wages above the proposed minimums. Simulating a new federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour, we find 87% of workers who benefit live in nonpoor families. Poor single mothers receive 3.8% of all benefits. Expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit would far more effectively reduce poverty, especially for single mothers. ( JEL J21, J31, J38)     

The direct incidence of corporate income tax on wages

A stylised model is provided to show how the direct effect of corporate income tax on wages can be identified in a bargaining framework using cross-company variation in tax liabilities, conditional on value added per employee. Using data on 55,082 companies located in nine European countries over the period 1996–2003, we estimate the long run elasticity of the wage bill with respect to taxation to be ?0.093. Evaluated at the mean, this implies that an exogenous rise of $1 in tax would reduce the wage bill by 49 cents. Only a weak evidence of a difference for multinational companies is found.     

How important are minimum wage increases in increasing the wages of minimum wage workers?

Popular discussion presumes minimum wage increases primarily drive wage gains for minimum wage workers. We investigate this presumption using the Current Population Survey to assess the fraction of minimum wage workers receiving raises after 12 months. This fraction is moderately higher following state minimum wage increases, and positively correlated with several measures of labor market tightness. Finally, wage gains frequently follow industry and/or occupation switches, highlighting the importance of career progression for earnings growth among entry-level workers. Career progression and increases in labor demand rather than minimum wage increases appear to drive most wage gains for minimum wage workers.     

Labor turnover in the U.S. federal bureaucracy

This paper presents an empirical analysis of labor turnover in the U.S. federal bureaucracy. The results indicate that job experience in politically important federal agencies is valued by the private sector. Hence (high-level) bureaucrats employed in these agencies have high turnover probabilities. The analysis also shows that equalization of federal sector and private sector wage rates would lead to a relatively small increase in turnover, but to substantial savings in federal payroll costs.     

The Effects of Germany's Statutory Minimum Wage on Employment and Welfare Dependency

In January 2015, Germany introduced a federal, statutory minimum wage of 8.50 € per hour. This study evaluates the effects of this policy on regular and marginal employment and on welfare dependency. Based on the county‐level administrative data, this study uses the difference‐in‐differences technique, exploiting regional variation in the bite of the minimum wage, i.e., the county‐specific share of employees paid less than 8.50 € before the introduction of the minimum wage. The minimum wage had a considerable negative effect on marginal employment. There is also some indication that regular employment was slightly reduced. Concerning welfare dependency, the minimum wage reduced the number of working welfare recipients, with some indication that about one half of them left welfare receipt due to the minimum wage.     

The employment elasticity in manufacturing: a comment on Mazumdar

We show that Mazumdar's recently proposed methods for estimatingthe elasticity of the wage bill with respect to output growth,and for decomposing the growth rate of the wage rate into anoutput effect, an employment effect, and a price effect, areproblematic. The decomposition proposed is a tautology becauseit can be equally derived from an accounting identity. Likewise,we show that the alleged elasticity of the wage bill with respectto output growth has to take on a value of unity by definition.     

The minimum wage, employment, and the AS-IF methodology: A forecasting approach to evaluating the minimum wage

Out-of-sample employment forecasts for 33 U.S. industries which are likely to be sensitive to the federal minimum wage are, more often than not, more accurate when information about the minimum wage is not taken into account. This is true even in instances where this information improves wage forecasts. When employment forecasts conditional on the minimum wage are better, the improvement is typically small. These results are invariant to the number of workers previously making less than the new minimum wage, and to the value of the minimum wage relative to industry average wages. First version received: August 1999/Final version received: July 2000     

Sharing the Burden? Empirical Evidence on Corporate Tax Incidence

This study investigates the direct incidence of the corporate income tax (CIT) through wage bargaining, using an industry‐region level panel dataset on all corporations in Germany over the period 1998–2006. For the first time we account for employment effects which result from tax‐induced wage changes. Workers share in reductions of the CIT burden; yet, the net effect of wage bargaining on the corporate wage bill, after an exogenous €1 decrease in the CIT burden, is as little as 19–28 cents. This is about half of the effect obtained in prior literature focussing on wages alone.     

Wages in a factor proportions model with energy input

This paper examines US wage adjustment in a structural vector autoregression of the factor proportions model with capital, labor, and energy inputs. Data cover the years 1949 to 2006. The wage adjusts to changes in input levels and output prices over six to eight years. Energy has a more robust wage impact than capital. The wage reacts weakly if at all to the falling price of manufactures and rising price of services during the sample period. Estimates relate directly to factor proportions theory suggesting robust substitution with labor in the middle of the factor intensity ranking.     

The Migratory Worker in American Agriculture

The debate over the minimum wage is often conducted on a technical level, primarily focusing on the effects of wage increases. In recent years the debate has often been between those who maintain that increases in the minimum wage will result in disemployment, particularly among teenagers, on the one hand and those who maintain that increases will offer much needed assistance to the poor on the other. Lost in this focus have been serious discussions of the ethical grounds for such a policy. Core to the issue of the minimum wage are questions of justice and the type of society we would like to create. This article argues that the technical approach to the minimum wage so often taken is an outgrowth of a particular conception of justice, one predicted on liberal neutrality. A different conception of justice would enable us to view the minimum wage as but one tool for achieving other social objectives. Moreover, a justice approach to the minimum wage would enable us to consider our values because we would be required to engage in a more philosophically grounded discussion of the policy and the issues it raises.     

Persistence of Regional Wage Differences in China

Regional wage differences in China appear to be persistent and even to have grown over the past two decades. We study potential explanations for this phenomenon. After adjusting for the difference in the cost of living across provinces, we find that some of the cross‐province differences in real wages could be related to the quality of labour, industry composition and geographic location of provinces. These factors, taken together, explain approximately half of the cross‐province real wage variation. Interestingly, we find that interprovincial government transfers have not offset regional wage differences during the time period we consider. We also demonstrate that interprovincial migration, while driven in part by levels and changes in wage differences across provinces, did not help offset these differences. These results are consistent with findings in the literature that cross‐province labour mobility in China is still limited.     

Staggered contracts and profitable entry deterrence: an application to professional sports

This paper examines an incumbent league's entry-deterrence strategies in a professional-sports market. The strategy of staggering long-term contracts offered to star players is analyzed and shown to reduce the wage bill of an incumbent league. However, if long-term contracting reduces player effort, the incumbent balances the benefits of a lower wage bill with the cost of reduced sales revenues. An optimal contract duration in the presence of such moral hazard is characterized in terms of the parameterization of the model. Extensions to the model are also discussed.