Using simulation experiments to test historical explanations: the development of the German dye industry 1857-1913

In a simulation experiment, building on the abductive simulation approach of Brenner and Werker (2007), we test historical explanations for why German firms came to surpass British and France firms and to dominate the global synthetic dye industry for three decades before World War 1 while the U.S. never achieved large market share despite large home demand. Murmann and Homburg (J Evol Econ 11(2):177–205, 2001) and Murmann (2003) argued that German firms came to dominate the global industry because of (1) the high initial number of chemists in Germany at the start of the industry in 1857, (2) the high responsiveness of the German university system and (3) the late (1877) introduction of a patent regime in Germany as well as the more narrow construction of this regime compared to Britain, France and the U.S. We test the validity of these three potential explanations with the help of simulation experiments. The experiments show that the 2nd explanation—the high responsiveness of the German university system— is the most compelling one because unlike the other two it is true for virtually all plausible historical settings.     

International Terrorism,Domestic Political Instability,and the Escalation Effect

What are the main causes of international terrorism? Despite the meticulous examination of various candidate explanations, existing estimates still diverge in sign, size, and significance. This article puts forward a novel explanation and supporting evidence. We argue that domestic political instability provides the learning environment needed to successfully execute international terror attacks. Using a yearly panel of 123 countries over 1973–2003, we find that the occurrence of civil wars increases fatalities and the number of international terrorist acts by 45%. These results hold for alternative indicators of political instability, estimators, subsamples, subperiods, and accounting for competing explanations.     

Productivity growth of the cities of Jiangsu province,China: a Kaldorian approach

This paper considers the determinants of economic growth of the cities of Jiangsu province, China, adopting a Kaldorian approach. It is found that there is a close correlation between the growth of non-industry and industry (Kaldor’s first law) that provides indirect evidence for the export-base theory. The paper discusses two competing explanations of the foundations of the Verdoorn law (Kaldor’s second law), which, in its simplest form, is the relationship between industrial productivity and output growth. It also considers the static–dynamic Verdoorn law paradox. This arises from the fact that estimating the Verdoorn law in log-levels often gives statistically insignificant estimates of the Verdoorn coefficient while the use of growth rates gives significant values of around one half. The results show that this does not occur when data for the cities are used. A plausible explanation for the paradox is that it results from spatial aggregation bias. It is also found that inter-province urban productivity disparities first increase, but subsequently decrease over the period considered.     

Dominant design or multiple designs: the flash memory card case

Literature suggests that in battles between competing designs, ultimately one design will emerge as dominant to the detriment of the others. Various factors and forces have been identified to explain this phenomenon. Yet, sometimes no dominant design emerges at all and multiple competing designs coexist in the market. The flash memory card industry provides an example of this. In this study, we use this example as a case to investigate the circumstances under which an industry has a tendency toward multiple designs. The case shows that a combination of factors may result in multiple designs and we argue that such a combination of factors will increasingly also apply in other cases.     

Evaluating the participation of an ethnic minority group in informal employment: a product of exit or exclusion?

This paper critically evaluates competing explanations for the participation of ethnic minority groups in informal employment. These interpret their participation either through a structuralist lens arising out of ‘exclusion’ from formal employment or through a neo-liberal and/or post-structuralist lens driven by voluntary ‘exit’ from formal institutions. To evaluate critically these competing explanations, this paper reports a survey of the experiences of Pakistani immigrants in informal employment in Sheffield, including fifty face-to-face interviews and two focus groups. The findings highlight informal employment amongst this Pakistani ethnic minority group is neither universally driven by exclusion nor exit. Instead, some participate mostly due to exclusion, others mostly for exit rationales and some for a combination of the two, with different mixtures across different groups and types of informal employment. The outcome is a call for greater appreciation of the multifarious character of undeclared work and a move beyond simplistic explanations and policy responses.     

Balancing corporate culture: Grid-group and Austrian economics

The aim of this paper is twofold: firstly to discuss the foundations of Grid-Group “Cultural Theory” and highlight the compatibility with Austrian economics, and secondly to apply this framework to the context of organisational culture. My claim is that “Corporate Cultural Theory” provides a rigorous and grounded social anthropological framework to take Austrian economics beyond its traditional uses and improve upon competing explanations of corporate culture.     

Insider-outsider influences on industry wages

The persistence of high rates of unemployment in Europe has focused renewed attention on the wage determination process. One aspect which has received particular attention recently is the extent to which wages are determined by insiders, with outsiders having little impact on the wage bargain. If outsiders are disenfranchised in the wage determination process, they may be unable to underbid themselves into employment. The insider-outsider model, and the associated implication of hysteresis, thus provides a possible explanation for persistent involuntary un-employment. Most empirical work on the importance of the insider-outsider model and hysteresis has been done at the aggregate level, either by testing whether wage growth is related to the level or the change in unemployment, or by testing if employment or unemployment follows a random walk. This paper extends both of these lines of analysis to the industry level. Based on a specification which nests alternative models of the wage determination process, estimation results are presented for fifteen industries using annual data for fourteen industrialized countries, and for pooled time-series cross-country data. The paper also tests the hypothesis that only industry-specific variables are important to the determination of industry wages and considers whether differences in industry wage determination might help to understand cross-country differences in unemployment. The results offer considerable support to the insider view of wage determination. Industries in which wages seem to be determined by a natural rate/Phillips curve model — the primary competing model considered in the paper — appear to be the exception rather than the rule. Moreover, at the industry level hysteresis does not appear to characterise wage formation in the high-unemployment European countries to a greater extent than in North America and Japan.     

Technological regimes and demand structure in the evolution of the pharmaceutical industry

This paper examines how the nature of the technological regime governing innovative activities and the structure of demand interact in determining market structure, with specific reference to the pharmaceutical industry. The key question concerns the observation that—despite high degrees of R&D and marketing-intensity—concentration has been consistently low during the whole evolution of the industry. Standard explanations of this phenomenon refer to the random nature of the innovative process, the patterns of imitation, and the fragmented nature of the market into multiple, independent submarkets. We delve deeper into this issue by using an improved version of our previous “history-friendly” model of the evolution of pharmaceuticals. Thus, we explore the way in which changes in the technological regime and/or in the structure of demand may generate or not substantially higher degrees of concentration. The main results are that, while technological regimes remain fundamental determinants of the patterns of innovation, the demand structure plays a crucial role in preventing the emergence of concentration through a partially endogenous process of discovery of new submarkets. However, it is not simply market fragmentation as such that produces this result, but rather the entity of the “prize” that innovators can gain relative to the overall size of the market. Further, the model shows that emerging industry leaders are innovative early entrants in large submarkets.     

浅释中国地区收入差距:1952-2002

本文对解释中国半个世纪以来地区收入差距演变的各种假说进行了归纳、分析与检验 ,同时提出并检验了 2个主要假说和 4个推论。使用弹性分析与条件收敛分析检验了人力与物质资本、农业生产结构、城乡差距、产业结构、产权结构、政府规模、企业规模、户口结构等多组解释变量对经济增长与收敛的影响 ,并估计了其影响力。上述检验较好地验证了各种竞争性与互补性假说 ,以及本文提出的假说与推论。     

Two studies of women's retirement incomes in Australia: assessing some outcomes of pluralism in economic research

To illustrate the potential use of plural research methods,two studies of Australian women's retirement incomes are examined.The first study employed quantitative microsimulation techniques.Its outcomes emphasised low lifetime earnings as a cause ofwomen's lower retirement incomes. The second study used an inductiveapproach known as grounded theory, and its conclusions emphasisedhousehold decision-making processes as a cause of both women'slow lifetime earnings and lower retirement incomes. Using Runde'scriteria for assessing causal explanations, a comparison ismade of the outcomes of the two studies. The conclusion is that,rather than being seen as competing accounts, the outcomes ofthe two varying research methods can be viewed as complementary.By demonstrating the different insights afforded by contrastingresearch methods, this paper provides some support for pluralismof research methods within the discipline of economics.     

The effects of regulation and competition on the price of AT&T intrastate telephone service

Using data on AT&T intrastate toll prices, this study examines the effect of changing regulatory practices and increased competition on AT&T pricing behavior in the intrastate long-distance telecommunications industry. The results suggest that, with some qualification, the price of AT&T telephone service is lower in states which have the longest history of departure from rate-of-return regulation. Moreover, the regulatory climate has a far more significant effect on AT&T prices than does competition. The paper outlines several possible explanations for these results.     

Catastrophe Theory in Economics

Based on mathematical topology, a newly developed theory called catastrophe theory provides interesting explanations of why apparently stable relations display sudden jumps—discontinuities called catastrophes. This theory readily lends itself to applications in economics where problems of unstable relationships occur. This paper is an introduction to the concepts and terminology of catastrophe theory as used in economics and explains its application in providing deeper insights into the theory of the firm in the intermediate microeconomic theory course.     

Altruism, equity, and reciprocity in a gift-exchange experiment: an encompassing approach

Considerable experimental evidence suggests that non-pecuniary motives must be addressed when modeling behavior in economic contexts. Recent theories of non-pecuniary motives can be classified as altruism-, equity-, or reciprocity-based. We outline the qualitative differences in prediction these alternative explanations yield in a gift-exchange game. We estimate and compare leading approaches in these categories, using experimental data. We then offer a flexible approach that nests the above three approaches, thereby allowing for nested hypothesis testing and for determining the relative strength of each of the competing theories. In addition, the encompassing approach provides a functional form for utility in different settings without the restrictive nature of the approaches nested within it. Using this flexible form for nested tests, we find that intentional reciprocity, distributive concerns, and altruistic considerations all play a significant role in players' decisions.     

MULTIPLE OWNERSHIP,COLLUSION AND UNUSUAL RESULT PATTERNS IN SOCCER

Expanding on the literature on antitrust, multiple ownership, and collusion in sports, this paper finds a very unusual result pattern between two clubs competing in the Croatian soccer league—Lokomotiva and Dinamo Zagreb. Their close sporting and business relationship has raised many questions about the possible collusion between them, potentially affecting the integrity of the competition. We analyze all matchups in the competition's 25‐year history to single out those characterized by biggest under‐ and overperformances by competing clubs. Our findings provide some support to the allegations of a possible collusion between the clubs as Lokomotiva's underperformance against Dinamo is so far in the tail of normal distribution that it has a lower occurrence probability than a random person being hit by lightning. (JEL Z29, K21, L83).     

Utopia competition: a new approach to the micro-foundations of sustainability transitions

We present a new evolutionary political economy approach to the study of transition dynamics based on a co-evolutionary model of differential citizen contributions to competing ‘utopias’—market fundamentalism, socialism, and environmentalism. We model sustainability transitions as an outcome of ‘utopia competition’ in which environmentalism manages to coexist with the market, while socialism vanishes. Our simulation-based framework suggests that the individual economic contributions of citizens to the battle of ideas—both the distribution within a utopia, and the interaction between different utopias—are crucial but much overlooked micro-factors in explaining the dynamics of sustainability transitions.     

Liberalization and the Changing Inter‐industry Wage Structure of the Organized Manufacturing Sector in India, 1973/74–2003/04

This paper examines the inter‐industry wage structure of the organized manufacturing sector in India for the period 1973/74–2003/04 by estimating the growth of average real wages for production workers by industry. Using wage data on 51 three‐digit industries, our estimation procedure obtains estimates of growth of real wages per worker that are wholly deterministic in nature by accounting for any potential structural break(s) associated with the reforms. Our paper identifies three distinct regimes—pre‐reform, first phase reforms and second phase reforms, over which real wages have grown at varying rates for each industry. Our findings suggest that the inter‐industry wage differences have become more pronounced in the post‐reform periods. The paper provides new evidence from India on the need to consider seriously the hypothesis that industry affiliation is potentially an important determinant of wages when studying any relationship between reforms and wages.     

A simple explanation of the relative performance evaluation puzzle

We study a simple moral hazard model in which two risk-neutral owners establish incentives for their risk-averse managers to exert effort. Because the probability distributions over output realizations depend on a common aggregate shock, optimal contracts make the compensation of each manager contingent on own performance but also on a performance benchmark—the performance of the other firm. If the marginal return of effort depends on the aggregate state, optimal contracts are not monotonically decreasing in the performance benchmark. This provides a simple explanation of the Relative Performance Evaluation (RPE) Puzzle—the documented lack of a negative relationship between CEO compensation and comparative performance measures, such as industry or market performance. Our simple model can also explain one-sided RPE—the documented tendency to insulate a CEO's rewards from bad luck, but not from good luck. We clarify that our results are robust in several dimensions and we discuss other applications of our findings.     

Mergers in the Electric Utility Industry in a Deregulatory Environment

We document that the merger announcement returns are positive and significant for targets of acquiring electric utility industry firms, but are not as algebraically large as target returns documented in non-regulated industry merger announcements. Additionally, electric utility acquirer firms earn significant negative announcement returns when acquiring an electric utility. We find announcement returns for acquirers vary significantly based upon the timing of the merger announcement, with mergers announced after the Energy Policy Act of 1992 generating negative returns for acquirers. We also find a significant difference in the percentage change in aggregate entity value around the announcement date for diversifying mergers as compared to non-diversifying mergers, with diversifying merger announcements resulting in a decrease in aggregate entity value.     

The impact of multinational entry on domestic market structure and investment

We model the impact of different modes of multinational entry on the choices of domestic firms. Focusing on the competitive effects of foreign entry for the host country we demonstrate that greenfield investment will increase competition only if it is not countered by anti-competitive reactions on the part of the domestic firms. Together with cross-border mergers and acquisitions the model, thus, provides two alternative explanations for the increase in concentration ratios in industries with mostly horizontal foreign direct investment. Moreover, foreign presence is shown to raise total investment in the local industry at the cost of crowding out domestic investment.     

Research on low-carbon development of electric power industry: from the perspectives of public policy

It is a fundamental way to achieve sustainable development and inclusive growth that China takes the low-carbon development path.And low-carbon development is an effective way to respond to many threats,including global climate anomalies,environmental degradation,and energy shortage.Low-carbon economy is policy economy to a large extent.Although the external environment demands low-carbon development of electric power industry,enterprises lack intrinsic motivation.Electric power industry is the pillar industry of China,and is one of the key industries for China＇s low-carbon development.The government needs to ensure its dominant position in the low-carbon development of electric power industry,and reform the government performance management system and promote the planning and management of electric power industry through appropriate public policy,in order to adjust the structure of the electric power industry and take a low-carbon development road with Chinese characteristics.