Short selling and exchange-traded funds returns: evidence from the London Stock Exchange

An exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a security that tracks a basket of stocks. An ETF investor gains immediate exposure to the basket, by taking either a long or short position on this instrument. Both hedgers and speculators can short ETFs, making the informational content of increases in ETF short interest difficult to interpret. Using high-frequency (daily) short-interest data for ETFs traded on the London Stock Exchange between June 2006 and April 2010, we examine the price impact on ETFs of increases in short interest. Contrary to most of the previous empirical evidence for individual stocks, we find that large increases in ETF short interest are associated with subsequent over-performance relative to a benchmark index and this pattern is most pronounced during pre-financial crisis period.     

Market Underreaction and Overreaction of Technology Stocks

Several studies have assessed stock market under- or overreaction of stocks and there is some agreement among them. However, there is much disagreement about what constitutes market underreaction or overreaction, and the conditions that cause it. The substantial variation in results among studies may be partially attributed to the types of firms that are contained in any sample. We investigate this premise by focusing on a sample of technology stocks that experienced an extreme change in stock price, along with a corresponding control sample of non-technology stocks that experienced a similar extreme change in stock price on the same day.

Based on the subsequent stock price behavior of each sample, we find a greater degree of overreaction within extreme positive changes in technology stock prices (winners) than in non-technology stock prices. In addition, we find a greater degree of underreaction within extreme negative changes in technology stock prices (losers) than in non-technology stock prices. When considering winners and losers collectively for technology and non-technology firms, it appears the market is overoptimistic when it initially revalues technology stock prices relative to non-technology stock prices.

The degree of under- or overreaction of technology stocks varies within the sample of technology stocks, and is conditioned on firm-specific characteristics. Overall, our results suggest that technology stocks exhibit unique stock price behavior subsequent to an extreme change in price, and that this unique behavior can even vary among technology firms according to firm-specific characteristics.     

Performance and diversification benefits of foreign-equity ETFs in emerging markets

This study provides a comprehensive review of the risk-return characteristics, performance and international diversification benefits of an uncharted fast-growing segment of the global exchange-traded fund (ETF) market by examining 17 foreign-equity ETFs traded in 6 emerging markets. The results indicate that the sample ETFs domiciled in these economies perform poorly providing relatively low returns while exposing emerging market investors to substantial total and systematic risks. In addition, these ETFs are found to be more sensitive to downside risk, making them relatively more vulnerable to market downturns. Although the foreign-equity ETFs are designed to provide investors with full international diversification benefits, we find that they are significantly affected by their local market conditions and sentiments, making them ineffective international diversification tools.     

Overreaction to extreme market events and investor sentiment

This article investigates the role of investor psychology, captured here by investor sentiment index, in driving individual stock price reactions to extreme movements in the broader market. In addition to confirming prior evidence of overreaction, we find much stronger overreaction when investor sentiment is low rather than high. This is consistent with the role of the contrast dimension of an uncommon event, suggested in the psychology literature, over and above the emotion of surprise it brings about. In a low sentiment environment, the contrast is sharper and hence leads to stronger overreaction.     

Exchange traded funds: leverage and liquidity

This paper examines the differences between leveraged and unleveraged Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), particularly for liquidity and volatility characteristics. The impact of leverage on intraday liquidity (spread and depth) is analysed in two periods – one of normal volatility and the other of abnormal/high volatility. There is a significant difference in spread and depth of leveraged and unleveraged ETFs in periods of both normal volatility and high volatility; however, this difference is more pronounced in higher volatility periods. In high volatility periods, liquidity typically diminishes in all ETFs, and this is even more so for the leveraged ETFs. When leveraged ETFs are segregated into multiples based on their power to replicate the underlying benchmark (i.e. multiples of ?3, ?2, ?1, 2, 3), the difference in spreads between normal and high volatility periods is typically larger. The double-leveraged ETF has the most significant difference between the positive and negative counter parts. However, the relationship in the progression of the multiples does not change linearly to correspond with the level of volatility. This may be due to the nonlinear relation between volume and volatility. We shed light on the magnification effect of financial leverage on microstructure of the ETFs.     

The heterogeneous volume-volatility relations in the exchange-traded fund market: Evidence from China

We decompose the trading volume of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) into specific components according to different triggers of trades: (i) private information, (ii) disagreement among investors due to their different opinions on public information or having different information, and (iii) investor impatience. Then we examine the particular impact of each type of ETF trade on the market volatility of the tracked index. Focusing on the three ETFs tracking the CSI 300, we show that ETF trades stemming from investor disagreement are a key determinant of CSI 300 volatility, dominating other factors considered. Liquidity ETF trades can partially explain CSI 300 volatility. However, little evidence supports a significant correlation between privately informed trades of ETFs and CSI 300 volatility.     

The Role of Industry Effects in Simultaneous Reversal and Momentum Patterns in One-Month Stock Returns

When stocks are ranked by returns in one month, the portfolio of loser stocks tends to outperform the portfolio of winner stocks in the subsequent month. Yet industry portfolios tend to display momentum. We develop a model of information diffusion among agents with constrained information processing ability that reconciles these well-documented phenomena. We test whether this model or the overreaction hypothesis is consistent with the data. Additionally, a trading strategy based on the model outperforms strategies based on overreaction and on industry momentum. The strategy produces abnormal returns while controlling for market–risk and the size, book value, January, momentum, and liquidity effects.     

价格涨跌幅限制起到了助涨助跌作用吗?

价格涨跌幅限制是否具有助涨助跌作用对于判断涨跌幅限制的实施效果具有重要的意义。既有的研究表明 ,股价在发生涨跌停时存在一定的过度反应。然而 ,本研究发现 ,在股价发生涨跌停时 ,虽然涨跌幅限制不能完全消除过度反应 ,但是可以显著地减小而不是增大过度反应的程度。本研究还发现 ,价格涨跌停本身并不是导致过度反应的原因 ,因为股价不仅在涨跌停时存在过度反应 ,而且在大幅度变化但未达到涨跌停时也存在过度反应。本文据此认为 ,没有证据表明价格涨跌幅限制具有助涨助跌作用。     

Regime switching and the (in)stability of the price–rent relationship: evidence from the US

Present value models of house prices assert that in the absence of self-fulfilling bubbles, a house price is equal to the present discount value of all future rents, which implies a linear relationship between house price and rent, and hence a stable price-to-rent ratio. Using a Markov switching error correction model, we re-examine this relationship in the US housing market and find two distinctive regimes: one with a long-run relation between house price and rent predicted by the present value models and the other in which the relation is nonlinear. Furthermore, we find evidence that deviations of house prices from the present value models’ predictions are caused by the overreaction of house prices to movements in rents rather than speculative bubbles attributable to extraneous factors.     

Price limits on a call auction market: Evidence from the Warsaw Stock Exchange

We empirically investigate the impact of price limits on volatility and autocorrelation in the call auction segment of the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE). Because call auctions offer time-out periods to investors, we do not expect price limits to counter overreaction and panic in this market structure. Indeed, our empirical findings show that price limits result in excess volatility on the next trading day and strong continuation of price movements, which indicates that price limits only delay the adjustment of prices to equilibrium levels. Our results question the necessity of price limits in the call auction system of the WSE.     

Relationships among U.S. oil prices and oil industry equity indices

The cointegration analysis suggests that the pure oil industry equity system and the mixed oil price/equity index system offers more opportunities for long-run portfolio diversification and less market integration than the pure oil price systems. On a daily basis, in the oil price systems all oil prices with the exception of the 3-month futures can explain the future movements of each other. In the mixed system, none of the daily oil industry stock indices can explain the daily future movements of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices, whereas these prices can explain the movements of independent companies engaged in exploration, refining, and marketing. The spillover analysis of oil volatility transmission suggests that the oil futures market has a matching or echoing volatility effect on the stocks of some oil sectors and a volatility-dampening effect on the stocks of others. The policy implication is that, during times of high oil volatility, traders should choose the S&P oil sector stocks that match their tolerance for volatility and use the right financial derivative to hedge against or profit from this volatility. The day effect for volatility transmission suggests that Friday has a calming effect on the volatility of oil stocks in general. The effect for Monday is not significant.     

The Availability Heuristic and Reversals Following Large Stock Price Changes

The author explores the effect of the availability heuristic on large daily stock price changes and on subsequent stock returns. He hypothesizes that if a major positive (negative) stock price move takes place on a day when the stock market index rises (falls), then its magnitude may be amplified by the availability of positive (negative) investment outcomes. In both cases, the availability heuristic may cause price overreaction to the initial company-specific shock, resulting in subsequent price reversal. In line with the hypothesis, the author documents that both positive and negative large price moves accompanied by the same-sign contemporaneous daily market returns are followed by significant reversals on the next 2 trading days and over 5- and 20-day intervals following the event, the magnitude of the reversals increasing over longer postevent windows, while large stock price changes taking place on the days when the market index moves in the opposite direction are followed by nonsignificant price drifts. The results remain robust after accounting for additional company (size, beta, historical volatility) and event-specific (stock's return and trading volume on the event day) factors, and are stronger for small and volatile stocks.     

Do Speculative Stocks Lower Prices and Increase Volatility of Value Stocks?

The influence of speculative stocks on value stocks is examined through a set of economics experiments. The speculative asset is designed to model a company involved in a rapidly growing market that will be saturated at some unknown point. Using a control experiment where both assets are similar value stocks, we find statistical support for the assertion that the presence of a speculative stock increases the volatility and diminishes the price of the value stock. In addition, the temporal minimum price of the value stock during the last phase of the experiment is lower in the presence of the speculative stock (when the trading price of the speculative asset is declining sharply). These results indicate that an overreaction in the speculative stock tends to divert investment capital away from other assets. An examination of the relative magnitude of monthly closing price changes confirm strong correlations between the Dow Jones Average and the more speculative Nasdaq index during the time period 1990 to 2001 and particularly during the two years prior to the peak in March 2000 (0.72 correlation) and the March 2000 to August 2001 decline (0.79 correlation). Supplementary experiments using independent (or legally separate) markets trading the same asset show that a higher price in one market does not lead to a higher one in the other.     

The winner-loser anomaly: recent evidence from Greece

This article finds evidence of significant reversals in returns over the medium term in Greek stocks. In contrast with previous research, return reversals are more pronounced for past winners, suggesting that the market overreacts to a greater extent to good news. These contrarian returns are particularly elevated when portfolios are formed using quartiles and during tranquil and bull markets. The optimum contrarian strategy involves skipping the first 6 months of the holding period and implementing the contrarian strategy for a period of 18 months, as returns exhibit continuation followed by reversal. The profitability of the contrarian investment strategy is robust to adjustments for risk and seasonalities. It is the tranquil times and not the crisis/volatile times that generates a significant and profitable contrarian strategy. The recent credit crisis and resulting stock market falls, resulted in extreme movements in some Greek stocks and testing of the contrarian strategy problematic, especially when portfolios are decile ordered. Our findings also highlight the importance of survivorship bias and also suggest that contrarian strategies that just use market beta may be ill-equipped to take into consider extreme market movements, illiquidity and short-sales constraints.     

Price clustering of IPOs in the secondary market

This article studies the integer price clustering of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in the secondary market trading during the first 240 trading days after their IPO dates. The results indicate the huge difference between the integer price frequency of IPOs in the primary market and that of matched stocks in the secondary market almost disappears on the first trading day after IPO. The integer price frequency of IPOs is still significantly higher than that of matched stocks during the first 240 trading days. However, after controlling for price level, trading characteristics and IPO price support, the integer price frequency of IPOs conforms to that of matched stocks and that those IPOs with integer offer prices have the same integer price frequency as IPOs without.     

An analysis of the spillover effects of exchange-traded funds

This article used the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity-Autoregressive Moving Average (GARCH-ARMA) and the exponentially Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity-Autoregressive Moving Average (EGARCH-ARMA) models to study the impact of the spillover and the leverage effects on returns and volatilities of stock index and Exchange Trade Fund (ETF) for developed and emerging markets. Previous unexpected returns for developed and emerging markets which have an opposite influence pattern on ETFs’ returns were identified. The spillover effects from returns are excellent for Hong Kong, followed by Singapore. Meanwhile, Taiwan's stock index return was recorded to have a strong negative impact on ETF return. Notably, this article shows that the spillover effects on stock index and ETF volatilities existed with bilateral influences. Despite a strong positive asymmetric volatility effect in Korea's ETF market, the leverage effect appears to play important roles in the explanation of both stock index and ETF returns.     

Determining the information share of liquidity and order flows in extreme price movements

Liquidity and order flows have been found to be major causes of extreme price movements (EPMs) in previous studies. However, few studies have clarified whether the impacts of these factors to EPMs are transient or permanent. In this paper, we represent the fluctuation of liquidity as a time series of price. The measurement of permanent price impact is converted to the price discovery problem solved by a quantile vector error correction model. Empirical results using the high frequency data in the Chinese stock market indicate that both liquidity and order flows contribute to the permanent component of the EPMs. However, liquidity is the dominating factor, which accounts for more than 60–80% of the information share in EPMs scenarios.     

我国股市涨跌幅限制日内效应的实证研究

本文利用我国沪市ST股和普通股的5分钟高频数据对我国股市涨跌幅限制的效应进行分析。结果表明,虽然普通股和ST股在接近涨跌幅限制时均存在趋势反转现象,但普通股10％的涨跌幅限制存在一定的磁吸效应,而ST股5％的涨跌幅限制不存在磁吸效应。这与国外其他研究以及国内基于其他方法得出的研究结论存在差异。本文的分析还说明,国内所谓涨跌幅限制的冷却效应只是股价正常的均值回复,与涨跌幅限制制度无关。     

Tail dependence between gold and sectorial stocks in China: perspectives for portfolio diversification

This article analyzes the relationship between gold quoted on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Chinese sectorial stocks from 2009 to 2015. Using different copulas, our results show that there is weak but significant tail dependence between gold and Chinese sectorial stock returns. This means that the dependence between extreme movements of the two assets is not pronounced and confirms the role of gold as a safe haven asset. Based on analyzing the efficient frontier, CCC-GARCH optimal weights, hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness, we further show that adding gold into Chinese stock portfolios can help to reduce their risk. Gold appears to be the most efficient diversifier for stocks of the materials sector and the less efficient for the utilities sector. As a robustness check, we also compare gold to oil and indicate that gold is more efficient than oil in the diversification of Chinese stock portfolios.

     

Investor Overreaction: Evidence That Its Basis Is Psychological

Probably no subject in recent financial literature has generated more controversy than whether investors behave rationally in pricing stocks, or whether they overreact to market information, resulting in prices being too high or too low. Although the efficient market hypothesis states that, with minor exceptions, securities are rationally priced, repeated evidence has been presented of predictable over- and underreactions. This evidence is based primarily on consistently higher returns for out-of-favor stocks and below-average returns for favored issues. The existence of overreaction in the marketplace, if it can be proven, is important to both investment decision-making and theory, and in more acute cases can be the major cause of financial bubbles and panics.

We present evidence of overreaction by showing that important fundamentals upon which securities prices depend demonstrate little movement in the face of major changes to the returns of favored and unfavored stocks. We can find no explanation other than psychological influences to account for this finding. The paper also provides evidence that over- and underreaction may be a part of the same process.