住房反抵押项目投资风险分析

分析了投资于住房反抵押贷款项目的金融机构面临的风险,利用VaR方法计算了不同置信度下的风险损失值,并分析了房价波动、利率波动和死亡率波动等因素对其损失的影响程度。结果显示:房价波动的影响最大,利率波动次之,死亡率波动的影响最小。     

住房价格与居民风险偏好

基于全国范围的调查数据和省级层面数据,本文实证分析了住房价格对居民风险偏好的影响,发现房价水平和房价上涨都显著提高居民的风险偏好。具体而言,在房价水平高、房价增幅大的地区,居民的主观风险偏好态度和客观风险偏好行为显著提高;当居民没有住房贷款、对房屋具有完全产权时,房价对居民的风险偏好影响更强;居民健康状况和拥有房屋数量对房价与居民风险偏好关系的调节效应相对较弱;区域性住房价格与居民股市参与度的关系,也进一步表明住房价格能显著提高居民的风险偏好。     

Gender and Poverty Risk in Europe

This study advances research on the structural dimension in the predominantly individual-oriented field of poverty studies by evaluating to what extent cross-national differences in population and structural characteristics can explain the differences in poverty outcomes by gender. To facilitate an approach that integrates individual and structural context dimensions, the paper takes advantage of multilevel techniques to test gender differences in the risk of being poor, entering into poverty, and exiting from poverty among seventeen European countries. The analysis covers single-adult households, drawing on data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) for the years 2007–8. The study concludes that structural effects, such as welfare state policies, labor market characteristics, level of inequality, and the level of women's empowerment in the country, seem to be more relevant than individual effects in explaining differences in the gender poverty gap among countries.     

Not-So-Strong Evidence for Gender Differences in Risk Taking

Based on a growing body of experimental and other studies, two recent economics survey articles claim to find “strong evidence” that women are “fundamental[ly]” more risk-averse than men. Yet, much of the literature fails to clearly distinguish between differences that hold at the individual level (categorical differences between men and women) and patterns that appear only at the aggregate level (statistically detectable differences in men's and women's distributions, such as different means). There is a resulting problem of possible misinterpretation, as well as a dearth of appropriate attention to substantive significance. Additionally, one of the two surveys suffers from problems of statistical validity, possibly due to confirmation bias. Applying appropriate, expanded statistical techniques to the same data, this study finds substantial similarity and overlap between the distributions of men and women in risk taking, and a difference in means that is not substantively large.     

分析师利益冲突、乐观偏差与股价崩盘风险

"股价崩盘风险"是当前金融危机背景下财务学的一个研究热点。本文使用2003-2010年中国A股上市公司的数据,研究分析师乐观偏差是否影响上市公司股价崩盘风险,并考察分析师面临的"利益冲突"是否会加剧乐观偏差对股价崩盘风险的影响。研究发现:(1)分析师乐观偏差与上市公司未来股价崩盘风险之间显著正相关,且此关系在"牛市"更为显著;(2)机构投资者持股比例越高,机构投资者数量越多,公司存在再融资行为,以及来自前五大佣金收入券商的分析师比例越高,分析师乐观偏差与崩盘风险之间的正向关系就更为显著,说明"利益冲突"会加剧两者的关系。本文的研究对于全面认识分析师在资本市场中的作用,以及如何降低我国股价崩盘风险、促进股市平稳发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

资产选择、风险偏好与储蓄存款需求

本文以消费者最优资产选择模型为基础,采用局部均衡分析方法探讨了通货膨胀、股市收益波动、消费者风险偏好对储蓄存款需求的影响。2001年6月以后,通货膨胀方差下降,股市持续下跌,股市收益率下降,收益率方差也有所下降,但货币需求却加速增长。本文根据不同的相对风险回避指数,模拟了利率、通货膨胀、股市收益率、股市收益率方差等因素对2001年6月至2005年9月平均储蓄存款的影响。在适当的相对风险回避指数下,储蓄存款增加的30%左右可以由这些因素解释;如果不考虑GDP等规模变量,股市收益率下降是导致平均货币需求增长的主要因素。     

可转换优先股在风险投资中的运用

本文从风险投资公司和风险企业在我国的现状为着眼点，分析了采用可转换优先股这一投资工具的优势和可行性，并对可转换优先股的发行和转换条件的设计以及保证投资者权益的附加条款进行了简单的探讨，提出了不同方式下再融资对普通股股东和可转换优先股股东利益一致的观点。     

Internationalisation of the Renminbi as an Investing and a Funding Currency: Analytics and Prospects

This paper develops a three‐currency model to study the determinants of the demand for assets and liabilites denominated in an international currency and to shed light on the prospects for the renminbi as a budding international currency. We show that interest rate differentials would be only one of the factors shaping the renminbi's position, while other factors, including the correlation between foreign countries' economic growth and their bilateral exchange rates against the renminbi, and the correlation between exchange rates of the renminbi with other international currencies, would also be important. A broad interpretation of these findings is that the renminbi will likely be attractive to investors from high‐income economies and fund‐raisers from emerging market economies.     

现金流不确定性、管理者风险偏好和企业创新

文本选取2009～2015年中国A股上市公司作为研究对象,实证分析现金流不确定性对企业创新产生的影响以及管理者风险偏好的调节作用,研究发现:现金流不确定性对企业创新具有显著的抑制作用;相对于国有企业,现金流不确定性对非国有企业创新的抑制作用更加明显;在董事会规模较大和召开董事会会议次数较多的企业中,现金流不确定性对企业创新的抑制作用明显减弱。与此同时,管理者风险偏好能够产生正向的调节效应,即缓解现金流不确定性对企业创新的不利影响。本文的研究结论表明,管理者适度的风险偏好对企业创新具有积极的影响,而完善的公司治理制度同样有助于提高企业的创新水平。     

基于风险偏好的报酬契约与预算松弛研究

风险偏好与预算松弛之间的关系是报酬契约能否有效解决预算松弛问题的重要前提.本文根据报酬契约设计中风险分摊和激励的关系,设计了三种不同类型的报酬契约,采用实验的方法研究在这三种不同类型的报酬契约下,预算下级风险偏好与预算松弛之间的关系.实验结果表明,风险偏好与预算松弛相关,但这种相关性会随着报酬契约的不同而变化.在风险分摊型报酬契约下,预算松弛的程度与预算下级的风险厌恶程度成正比;在激励补偿型报酬契约下,预算松弛程度与预算下级的风险厌恶程度成反比;在风险分摊和激励改善型报酬契约下,无论何种风险偏好的预算下级,预算松弛程度与前两种报酬契约相比会有不同程度的减少.     

创业特质研究:基于黑暗人格和情绪特质的述评

创业特质研究的由归纳特质内涵发展到创业特质要素在创业活动中的作用,实际上,创业特质涉及诸多内容。随着心理学研究的不断深入,创业特质研究开始出现新的内容,即黑暗人格和情绪特质。在对已有文献总结的基础上,对黑暗人格和情绪特质进行了比较分析,并整合了创业特质新内容的相关研究,指出创业特质具有多面性,不是一成不变的,积极特质与消极特质之间应具备一种极限化思维——度,因而未来研究应呈现出一种更加微观、内容整合和情境化思维演进方向。     

Covered Call Investing in a Loss Aversion Framework

In a mean-variance framework, the covered call investment strategy has been seen as an inefficient method of allocating wealth. Covered calls reduce the riskiness of the portfolio and therefore lead to lower portfolio returns. Recent debate has focused on the shortcomings of mean-variance efficiency as an accurate depiction of investor utility. Using alternative utility functions, we find mixed support for the use of the covered call investing strategy. Using loss aversion, however, we reexamine the covered call investment decision and find it significantly enhances investor utility relative to an index portfolio investment strategy. We conclude that loss aversion's more accurate depiction of investor preferences and behavior helps to explain the popularity of the covered call investment strategy.     

西部地区投资困境及对策

西部地区的经济增长主要来源于投资.但西部大开发以来,在政府投资向西部地区倾斜的同时,民间资本却通过商业银行的存贷款渠道由西部流向东部.民间投资的缺失成为西部投资增长的困境,影响到了西部经济增长.本文通过计算投资对西部地区经济增长的推动作用,分析西部地区投资的困境,得出解决西部地区投资困境的方法和途径,以更好地利用外部资源,实现西部地区经济持续增长.     

个体理性、风险偏好、社会地位与我国消费增长--基于跨期替代资产选择理论模型的研究

文章基于跨期替代资产选择理论,建立了一个较符合我国实际的模型,并结合相关经济数据,将其用以分析我国消费增长问题.研究结果发现:(1)提高跨期替代弹性是解决我国消费不足问题的关键;(2)通过减少个体风险偏好或提高其对社会地位的重视程度来增加消费的方法在理论上并不可行;(3)通过减少贫富差距来减少社会地位因素的受重视程度,可能对刺激消费有一定作用.     

基于风险偏好的灰色DEA在武器装备科研立项决策中的应用

针对武器装备科研立项的特点,建立输入、输出指标体系,在考虑了输入、输出指标不确定性的情况下,建立了基于风险偏好的灰色DEA模型,并运用反映决策者风险偏好的θ定位规划求解模型。最后,结合武器装备科研立项的实际情况,定性分析了关键元器件供应等风险因素,通过仿真算例检验了模型的适应性。     

Risk Preferences and Gender Differences in Union Membership in Late Nineteenth-Century Swedish Manufacturing

Women are generally seen as less inclined to join trade unions. This study matches firm–worker data from the Swedish cigar and printing industries around 1900 and examines information on men and women holding the same jobs; such data are rare but important for understanding gender gaps. The results explain the gender gap in union membership among compositors, but not among cigar workers. Differences in union membership varied considerably across firms, with the largest differences found in low-union-density cigar firms where indirect costs (that is, uncertainty and risk) accrued in particular to women workers. The lack of gender differences in mutual aid membership indicates that women were not hard to organize but avoided organizations associated with greater risk for employer retaliation and uncertain returns according to a cost–benefit analysis.