Financial Constraints and Investment Decisions

In what follows we show that liquidity constraints can affect a firm's investment even when the constraints are not currently effective. This happens when, at any given time, the firm believes that internal finance is likely to become a constraint in the future. In these circumstances, the value of the firm becomes a non‐monotonic functional form of the fundamental. Thus, in a dynamic setting, the potential barrier to internal liquidity expansion exerts a global effect on the firm's investment policy, lowering its desired investment profile (Classification JEL: E22, E51 ).     

Overseas Investment and Firm Exports

A firm can serve overseas customers by exporting or by producing in the foreign market. Thus, ceteris paribus , one might expect increases in overseas investment to displace exports. However, most empirical work has found a positive relation between the two variables. The authors use a panel dataset containing 25 years' of data on 932 Japanese manufacturing firms to investigate the effect direct investment abroad has on exports. For the full sample of firms, complementarity is found. The relationship, however, varies across firms. Those that are unlikely to ship intermediates to overseas production affiliates exhibit substitution.     

Idiosyncratic Uncertainty and Firm Investment

We test the impact of idiosyncratic demand uncertainty on investment using a panel of 82 Dutch listed manufacturing firms in the period 1984–1995. The measure of uncertainty is constructed by estimating a state space model at the firm level to isolate idiosyncratic uncertainty from other unobserved components. Generalised Method of Moments estimators show that demand uncertainty, which is specific to the firm, depresses firm investment. More interestingly, we find that idiosyncratic uncertainty is more important in explaining firm investment than total uncertainty that mixes idiosyncratic uncertainty with other sources of uncertainty.     

股票价格的“涟漪效应”研究——基于公司投资决策的视角

公司股价会对其自身的投资决策产生影响,但市场上可能存在一家公司的股价异动会对其他相关公司的投资产生影响的现象,即股票价格的“涟漪效应”.文章选取2007-2014年中国A股上市公司为样本,论证了股票价格“涟漪效应”的存在性,并探讨其作用机制.研究发现:(1)公司投资决策不仅受到自身股票价格的影响,还受到同行公司股票价格的显著正向影响,即存在“涟漪效应”;(2)“涟漪效应”的强弱主要受信息环境的影响,即同行公司股票价格的信息含量较高、信息有效性较强,并有更多分析师覆盖时,股价波动产生的“涟漪效应”则更为明显;(3)公司所属行业的资本密集程度较高、所属地区的市场化程度较低以及公司规模较大时,其投资决策更易受到“涟漪效应”的影响.这说明与社会学习理论和信号理论相一致,同行公司的股票价格可为管理层的投资决策提供有用信息.     

The Effects of Attraction on Investment Decisions

The attraction effect occurs when an inferior item changes a decision-maker's perception of the relationship between other available alternatives, contrary to the expectations of rational decision-making. This study presents the first evidence that this effect, which has appeared persistently in consumer research, can influence investment decisions. The study also finds two distinct patterns of reaction to the inferior item as a sign of "cluster attraction"-a way of spreading investment risk. Evidence of attraction means that the values of important facets of corporate reporting may not be stable across an investor's decisions, but may depend on the items presently available for investment. Results of an experiment conducted with approximately 100 graduate students with investing experience or interest show that the investor's perceived values of reported financial or non-financial performance, quality of earnings, and information source reliability are subject to trade-offs and can be altered by the composition of the decision set, rather than by any intrinsic change in the investment candidate itself. The discussion highlights the implications of these findings for an understanding of how investors regard the qualities of financial reporting.     

Investment Incentives of a Regulated Dominant Firm

We study the investment incentives of a regulated, incumbent firm in a deregulation process. The regulator cannot commit to a long-term regulatory policy, and investment decisions are taken before optimal regulatory policies are imposed. We characterize the regulated incumbent's incentive to invest when a deregulation process is initiated and an unregulated firm enters the market as a result. The change in the marginal return to investment depends on how the investment changes the firm's virtual cost—the sum of its physical production and information costs. When the marginal return to investment increases due to deregulation, social welfare increases as a result of higher investment and more competition. Otherwise, the change in social welfare depends on the total of the effects in the fall of investment and increased competition. We also present conditions under which deregulation enhances welfare.     

大股东的所有权与企业的投资行为研究

Jensen和Meckling早在1976年就指出股权结构影响企业价值,而这一过程是通过影响投资实现的,但是一直缺乏有说服力的经验结果的支持。本文以2004～2007年1039家上市公司共4156个观察值为研究样本,从第一大股东股权的视角出发,研究了股权结构与公司投资水平之间的关系。研究发现,中国上市公司第一大股东的持股比例与公司的投资支出之间存在“下降-上升-下降”的“倒N”型的非线性关系;进一步研究后发现,持股比例在10％～20％的区间投资水平达到最小值,在60％～70％的区间达到最大值。但是这种“倒N”型的非线性关系只存在于非国家控股的公司,当第一大股东为国家股时,这种非线性关系会变得不显著。本文的研究为治理当前我国企业普遍存在的非效率投资、提升企业价值提供了经验证据。     

地方政府干预与企业投资的同伴效应

文章以我国上市公司1999-2012年的数据为样本,研究了我国企业当年新增投资是否会受到同地区不同行业企业平均新增投资的影响,并重点分析了地方政府干预是否会增强上述的企业投资同伴效应.研究发现,同地区不同行业企业间投资的同伴效应是存在的,即企业当年新增投资会随同地区不同行业企业平均新增投资的增加而增加;同时,在地方政府干预较强的地区,在省委书记离任前三年,在每个“五年计划”的最后两年,上述同伴效应更加显著.文章为地方政府干预影响所在地区企业投资的研究提供了新的证据.     

宗教信仰、政治身份与企业投资偏好

文章运用企业家宗教信仰的直接调查数据,考察了企业家的个人宗教信仰对企业投资活动的影响。研究发现,相对于研发型投资,有宗教信仰的企业家偏好于风险相对较小的关系型投资;不同类型的宗教信仰对企业投资偏好具有不同的影响,笃信东方宗教的企业家相对于笃信西方宗教的企业家更加偏好于关系型投资;企业家的宗教信仰对投资偏好的影响因企业家是否具有政治身份而有所不同,相对于有政治身份的企业家,没有政治身份的企业家的宗教信仰会更加显著地正向影响关系型投资,表明政治身份可能会弱化宗教信仰在关系型投资中的作用。     

A Tax Paradox for Investment Decisions under Uncertainty

In this paper we use a real option model for assessing uncertain investment projects and we show that—due to a flexibility premium—taxes asymmetrically affect the option value of projects that differ in their riskiness. Hence, this may generate distortions. We analytically identify a set of neutral tax rates (a tax regime) that preserve the post‐tax investment threshold if taxes change, and determine normal and paradoxical settings for investments. Unlike other tax paradoxes neither depreciation rules nor loss offset restrictions cause these paradoxical reactions. Taxes affect each project individually, depending on the project risks involved. This implies that, for a variety of uncertain projects, taxes cannot be neutral on aggregate.     

政府公共投资决策存在的问题及对策

转变政府职能和提高公共投资效率是政府再造的重要内容。本基于政府公共投资的特点，对我国政府公共投资决策进行了新的审视，并针对存在的问题，在公共投资的科学性、技术性、社会性、生态性、经济性等方面提出了对策建议。     

对外直接投资促进企业创新了吗——基于逆向投资与顺向投资的比较研究

越来越多的中国企业通过对外直接投资走向海外,但对外直接投资能成为推动企业创新的跳板吗?逆向投资与顺向投资对企业创新的影响又是否存在差异?考虑到逆向投资、顺向投资对企业创新影响上的时间特征,文章探讨了逆向投资、顺向投资对企业创新的动态影响机制,并基于高技术企业样本和境外投资数据进行了实证检验。研究发现:逆向投资和顺向投资均能促进企业创新,但在时间特征上具有较大差异;逆向投资对企业创新的影响存在时滞效应,随着投资企业对外来者劣势的克服以及吸收能力的提升,逆向投资才会显著促进企业创新;顺向投资可以在短期内快速推动企业创新,但这种促进效应并不能持续,随着产品本土化改造完成,顺向投资对企业创新的影响也将减弱。     

大力启动民间投资 进一步扩大内需

在当前严峻的国际经济形势下,实现经济较快增长的根本这策是扩大国内需求,进一步形成消费和投资的双重拉动。这不仅需要继续实行积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策,还需要采取措施进一步启动和支持数额巨大的民间投资。     

Impact on Firm Liquidity Arising from Outsourcing Decisions as Evidenced by Off-Balance-Sheet Disclosures

International Advances in Economic Research - Based on transaction-cost and resource-based theories (and other approaches), there is an extensive literature on the range of factors that are viewed...     

国有控股、投资效率与信贷资源配置

银行信贷是我国企业的主要资金来源之一,其配置效率的高低对国民经济发展、企业融资决策有重要影响。本文以我国2001—2008年非金融上市公司为样本,考察了我国上市公司的过度投资行为对银行信贷资金配置的影响,并进一步考察了不同产权性质对投资效率和银行信贷配置影响的差异。本文研究发现,企业过度投资程度越大,越容易获得银行贷款;相对于私有产权控股公司而言,随着过度投资程度的增大,国有控股公司获得的银行信贷规模越大;国有控股公司过度投资的程度要大于私有产权控股公司。上述结果表明,银行的信贷资源更多流向了过度投资的国有控股公司,我国信贷市场的资源配置功能有待优化。     

灰色预测理论在房地产投资决策中的应用

预测是房地产投资决策的重要工作之一。文章在分析GM(1,1)模型和灰色马尔可夫预测模型两种灰色预测模型的基础上,结合实例对房地产价格和开发量进行预测,并取得了比较理想的结果。旨在提高房地产投资决策的科学性。     

The Disposition Effect and Individual Investor Decisions: The Roles of Regret and Counterfactual Alternatives

Recent studies have documented a strong tendency for individual investors to delay realizing capital losses, while realizing gains prematurely (Odean [1996], Shefrin and Statman [1985], Weber and Camerer [1996]). This tendency has been termed the "disposition effect." The disposition effect is inconsistent with normative approaches to stock sales, such as those based on tax losses (see, for example, Constantinides [1983]). We surveyed individual investors, and found that more respondents reported regret about holding on to a losing stock too long than about selling a winning stock too soon. This finding suggests that individual investors are consistently engaging in behavior that they have been warned can cost them money and that they regret later. Two additional experiments confirm the disposition effect and the role of regret, and offer evidence about the role of an agent (broker) in the assignment of blame and regret. We show that investor satisfaction and regret are not simply functions of outcome, but are influenced by counterfactual alternatives and the type of action taken (holding versus selling). We suggest that the disposition effect may be highly related to reduction of anticipated regret.     

Partially Irreversible Investment Decisions and Taxation under Uncertainty: A Real Option Approach

The paper applies contingent claims analysis in a real option investment model in order to investigate taxation's influence on investor's decisions under uncertainty. The results show the distortion from realistic-type tax systems, allow to identify a tax-induced paradox in option valuation for specific settings and acknowledge the property of investment neutrality of well-known 'ideal' tax systems in the context of different degrees of irreversibility. Furthermore, it is clarified that the idea of risk-neutral valuation cannot be adopted by the real option approach in general.