美国金融监管体系的问题与变革

金融危机暴露美国金融监管出了问题,既有自由市场主义监管理念的根本问题,也有原监管体系在对付混业经营过程中的诸多缺陷和漏洞,美国政府试图通过立法对金融监管体系进行重大变革,以防范未来的系统性风险和金融危机,实现金融市场效率与风险的平衡。     

美国金融监管体系改革动向及其对我国的启示

次贷危机引发了美国对其金融监管体系及其监管理念的反思。最近,美国财政部向国会提交了《现代金融监管架构改革蓝图》。本文在分析该改革蓝图主要内容的基础上,对其所反映的美国金融监管理念的转变进行了探讨,即从分机构、分业监管向综合、跨业监管的转变,从监管局部性风险向监管金融市场系统性风险的转变和从规则导向监管向原则导向监管的转变,最后提出我国金融监管体系改革的对策建议。     

美国金融监管体系的问题与变革

金融危机暴露美国金融监管存在的问题,既有自由市场主义监管理念的根本问题,也有原监管体系在应对混业经营过程中的诸多缺陷和漏洞,美国政府正试图通过立法对金融监管体系进行重大改革,以防范未来的系统性风险以及金融危机的爆发,实现金融市场效率与风险的平衡.     

互联网金融下我国金融监管面临的挑战及对策

目前,互联网金融的发展给我国金融市场的发展带来重大的机会,由于其独特的3A服务(3A即是anytime、anywhere、anyhow三个单词的缩写)确保广大金融投资者的利益。这里要说明的是,互联网金融的发展正向的推动了金融市场的发展,然而,互联网本身具有的缺点也给我国金融市场的发展带来问题。本文主要是通过理论和实践相关,着重探讨互联网金融监管的重要性,从而进一步的分析出目前我国金融监管遇到的挑战,以便从监管系统和监管理念上面提出合理的建议,为我国互联网精通的发展做好保障。     

金融危机下美英金融监管改革的比较与借鉴

有效的金融监管是防范金融风险最有力的外部约束力量。本轮金融危机的发生和蔓延暴露了各个国家在金融监管理念、体制及国际合作等多方面的问题。金融监管未能跟上金融创新的步伐，从而导致监管的缺失是其主要原因之一。在金融市场产品不断创新、复杂性不断增加的同时，如何提升监管能力，建立一个适应金融市场发展水平和风险状况的有效金融监管制度环境，成为各国政府重点思考的问题之一。本文通过比较金融危机下，关、英两国金融监管改革方案出台的背景、主要内容及异同，总结出对我国金融监管改革的借鉴和启示。     

金融监管信号传递与金融市场有效运行

金融市场是金融监管当局与金融市场参与者之间动态博弈、合作共生的信息不对称系统。通过把信号博弈和重复博弈思想引入金融监管理论研究,构建以金融市场有效运行为反馈信号的金融监管当局与金融市场参与者之间的监管信号传递模型,分析金融市场治理中有效监管信号的传递机制。结果表明：金融监管力度与金融市场有效运行水平之间存在分离、混同两种均衡关系;在金融监管声誉效应的驱动下,金融监管当局倾向于选择混同均衡策略,而不是分离均衡。因而只有建立通畅的金融监管信号传递及反馈机制,强化并放大金融监管信号显示,增大监管乘数效应,形成良性的监管声誉效应,才能保障金融市场的有效运行。     

日本的金融监管体制改革及对中国的启示北大核心CSSCI

二战后,日本的金融监管体制经过改革,增强了其金融监管主体的独立性,使得金融监管重点由事前监管转变为事后监管,金融监管的覆盖面更加广泛,投资者利益得到了充分保护。金融监管改革还提升了日本金融体系的市场化程度,增强了金融机构抵御风险的能力。但日本的金融监管体制还存在着职能监管的有效性不足、监管协调工作缺乏制度保障、金融机构内部控制体系薄弱、不良债权问题尚未完全解决等一系列问题。随着我国经济发展进入新常态,金融监管体制的改革势在必行。因此,研究和借鉴日本金融监管体制改革的成功经验和教训,具有重要的现实意义。     

危机后德国金融监管改革述评

金融危机暴露了现行金融监管制度存在的问题从而引发各国监管改革行动。德国的监管改革是弥补监管漏洞为主的局部修正,主要包括修改风险管理的最低要求、改革金融市场监管工具、加强金融市场监管力度、探索前沿金融工具定值模型、加强国际监管合作、加强宏观审慎监管等六个方面。通过这些监管制度的改革,德国加强监管力度,继续强调风险防范的监管目标,并借以强化其在国际金融体系中的地位和影响力,德国监管变化对我国的金融监管改革具有重要的启示意义。     

金融监管理念与实践探讨

本文通过分析当前我国金融监管理念在实践中存在的几个误区,认为金融监管理念要从传统的控制风险转变到隔离风险上来,树立金融监管就是金融服务的理念,建立并完善对金融机构的效益监管,创新监管的手段和方法,最后提出了一种适应现代金融监管理念的新型金融监管体系。     

英国金融监管改革与新的金融监管框架

自2007以来,英国出台了多项金融监管改革方案,一方面应对金融危机的冲击,另一方面致力于构建保障金融体系长期稳定的机制。在新的金融监管框架中,金融监管权力重新回到英格兰银行手中,在英格兰银行内部设立金融政策委员会,并设立审慎监管局和金融行为局,分别负责宏观审慎管理、金融机构和金融市场监管以及金融消费者权益保护。英国新的金融监管体制的有效性尚需进一步观察,但其加强宏观审慎管理、提高中央银行监管权限和地位、强化对消费者权益保护等方面的理念,值得我国在完善金融监管体系中关注与借鉴。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.