Oil Prices and Urban Housing Demand

We develop a model of a monocentric, oil‐exporting city. The model predicts a “twist” (rotation combined with a level shift) of the house price gradient with an oil price change due to the combined producer price and transportation cost effects. Empirical findings support the predictions, with house price changes positively linked to the price of oil in cities specialized in oil and gas‐related industries, and negatively linked in suburban areas of all cities. These results quantify the large and differential risks to house prices associated with oil price changes both within and across cities. Overall, estimates suggest a 50% change in the price of oil results in a city‐wide house price change of 15% over five years in a city specialized in the production of oil (export employment share of 50%), whereas house prices for units greater than 15 miles from the city‐center change in relative terms by ?1.5% over the same period.     

Urban Housing Markets Modelling: Short-Run Equilibrium Implications

This paper tests for the existence of short-run equilibrium in the urban housing market in Metropolitan Toronto. The alternative hypothesis is the housing market segmented with respect to locational and structural attributes. We found insignificant differences in attribute prices across hypothesized submarkets. This implies that an unstratified hedonic price regressions model, based on the assumption of short-run equilibrium, is equally efficient in the analysis of housing prices as a model based on a number of subsamples stratified along lines of segmentation.     

Housing Policy in a Nongrowth Era: Problems of the Northeast United States

The ambivalent results of the federal government's large-scale subsidization of low- and moderate-rent housing production in the early 1970s have produced new preoccupations about the directions federal housing programs should take in the light of sharply divergent growth trends among Regions that have become apparent in 1977. As economic and demographic growth in the South and West Regions poses classic problems of adaption to growth, the Northeast and North Central Regions are faced with either nongrowth or decreases in population and employment. This paper discusses adaptions designed to conserve and improve existing housing resources in areas that require only minimal new residential construction. These adaptions include new levels of state-federal housing coordination to make more intense use of private financing in conjunction with the federal Section 8, Coinsurance, and Section 233(f) programs.     

Housing and Urban Development Indicators: A Good Idea Whose Time Has Returned

This special issue of Real Estate Economics is devoted to "Housing and Urban Development Indicators." The issue has been underwritten by the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development as a U.S. Contribution to the United Nation's Habitat II Conference, held in Istanbul, Turkey in June 1996. This introduction first briefly explains the role of indicators in urban research. Current research on indicators is then described, including a major international research effort undertaken in over fifty countries with support from numerous academics and other researchers, the United Nations, the World Bank and a number of governments. Finally, the papers in this issue are introduced and placed in context.     

高校贫困大学生心理问题及对策研究

贫困生作为大学生中的特殊群体,不仅背负着沉重的经济压力,而且还承受着因物质贫困而带来的诸多精神压力,容易引发诸多心理困扰,甚至出现心理疾病。本文着重探讨了目前高校贫困生的主要心理问题,并提出了相应的解决措施。     

基于多中心城市结构的保障性住房价格测算

由廉租住房和成本销售型住房构成的政府供给型保障性住房,其价格在维持较低水平的同时,还应体现出住房品质的差异,从而实现合理的定价。论文针对政府供给型保障性住房,以区位因素为定价依据,将同心圆城市结构住宅租金测算模型进行拓展,建立扩展性多中心城市结构的住宅租金测度模型。同时基于多层次灰色系统建立区位差异指数测算模型,从而实现对不同区位的保障性住房的差别定价,为政府供给型保障性住房价格水平确定提供可操作性的方案。     

城市房屋拆迁补偿不足的经济分析

以城市房屋拆迁补偿问题为研究对象,在纵观国内外城市拆迁补偿实践的基础上,结合序数效用论探究了拆迁冲突频发的原因在于拆迁补偿不足,被拆迁人效用的降低。运用零和博弈的分析手段,揭示了拆迁补偿不足背后的深层社会现象:拆迁人利用其资源和信息等方面的绝对优势来侵占处于弱势地位的被拆迁人利益,说明该博弈的占优策略使得拆迁双方都不能得益,必须通过政策干预来影响博弈可能的解。结合研究结论,提出了相应的政策建议。     

The Report of the President''s Commission on Housing:

This paper discusses the recommendations of the President's Commission on Housing in the area of low-income housing policy and programs. It concentrates on the basic policy proposals concerning future program directions, which occupy the first two chapters of the Commission's Report [7] . It does not attempt to address the continuing problems of extant public housing projects, which occupied a significant fraction of the Commission's time and is the subject of Chapter 3 of the Report . Nor does it consider the special housing concerns of the elderly and handicapped, which are treated briefly in Chapter 4.
The paper first describes recent developments in housing policy, up to the time when the Commission began its deliberations, in mid-1981. It then presents the Commission's analysis of the housing problems confronting lower-income households and summarizes the Commission's policy recommendations. These two sections correspond roughly to the first two chapters in the report. They attempt to summarize the Report as briefly as possible, and devote more attention to the process by which the Commission reached its conclusions, and the analysis which underlay them. The final section discusses the current political status of the Commission's recommendations.     

从城镇居民家庭收入差距看住房需求

通过对不同收入水平的城镇居民的住房支出和可支配收入进行了分析和对比,全景式地描绘了城镇住房市场需求的变化过程。在分析市场经济国家消费结构动态变化的基础上,研究了我国城镇居民住房消费的变动规律,并提出了发展城镇住房市场的建议。     

The Bias of the RSR Estimator and the Accuracy of Some Alternatives

This paper analyzes the implications of cross-sectional heteroskedasticity in the repeat sales regression (RSR). RSR estimators are essentially geometric averages of individual asset returns because of the logarithmic transformation of price relatives. We show that the cross-sectional variance of asset returns affects the magnitude of the bias in the average return estimate for each period, while reducing the bias for the surrounding periods. It is not easy to use an approximation method to correct the bias problem. We suggest an unbiased maximum likelihood alternative to the RSR that directly estimates index returns, which we term MLRSR. The unbiased MLRSR estimators are analogous to the RSR estimators but are arithmetic averages of individual asset returns. Simulations show that these estimators are robust to time-varying cross-sectional variance and that the MLRSR may be more accurate than RSR and some alternative methods.     

住宅消费公平价格与商品住宅性能认定

本通过对影响住宅消费公平价格形成的因素进行分析，并联系商品住宅性能认定制度，阐述了四类因素对住宅消费公平价格形成的影响和与性能认定的联系。对性能认定中存在的问题提出了建议。     

Successful Wage Concertation: The Economic Effects of Wage Pacts and Their Alternatives

Recent debates on pacts have focused on the prerequisites for their emergence, whereas questions of their efficacy have receded into the background. In particular, systematic analyses of the effectiveness of pacts in terms of their capacity to enhance economic performance are missing. The aim of this article is therefore to assess the economic impact of pacts. As the majority of pacts concern wages, the assessment will concentrate on a comparison of the performance of pacts with alternative governance mechanisms for wage policies, that is, alternative pay‐setting modes. The findings show that when wage pacts are endowed with the ability to govern lower‐level pay determination, they are better at enhancing economic performance than other forms of coordination.     

住房和城乡建设事业发展成就显著(人民要论·“十三五”辉煌成就·住房和城乡建设)

住房和城乡建设事业是党和国家事业的重要组成部分,事关经济社会发展全局,事关人民群众切身利益。习近平总书记高度重视住房和城乡建设工作,多次作出重要指示批示,为住房和城乡建设事业发展指明了正确方向、提供了根本遵循。“十三五”时期,全国住房和城乡建设系统深入学习贯彻习近平总书记重要指示批示精神,坚决贯彻落实党中央决策部署,坚持以人民为中心的发展思想,改革创新、担当作为、砥砺奋进,推动住房和城乡建设事业发展取得历史性成就,为顺利完成“十三五”规划目标任务、决胜全面建成小康社会作出了积极贡献。     

Investor Confidence as a Determinant of China's Urban Housing Market Dynamics

China's urban housing market dynamics suggest that evolving investor confidence may be a relevant demand shifter. Such investors are continually updating their beliefs about the state of the macroeconomy and the policy uncertainty related to national and local housing policies. We build a 35 Chinese city real estate confidence index that varies over time and across cities. This index predicts subsequent house price appreciation and new housing sales. We document evidence of heterogeneous effects of investor confidence depending on a city's demographics and the city's elasticity of housing supply. Our results based on a new household‐level expectations survey bolster the case that investor expectations are an important determinant of real estate price dynamics.     

Housing and the Economy: Popular Myths

This paper identifies and tries to clarify the effects of a number of changes in the system of delivering mortgage credit and housing subsidies. First, we examine the trends in housing and mortgage market data and policy. This review highlights the perceived relationships of these sectors to the rest of the economy. We then focus on and develop the relationship between four issues that have been fundamental stumbling blocks to the development of effective policy. The issues are: (1) homeownership affordability, (2) measures of housing needs, (3) the costs of cycles in housing production, and (4) the effects of federal mortgage credit programs.