财政金融政策对中国民营经济发展的影响效应研究

当前中国民营经济正处于转型发展期,分析影响中国民营经济发展的因素显得尤为重要。本文运用向量误差修正模型实证研究了财政金融政策与中国民营经济发展的关系。结果显示,财政政策、金融政策都会正向长期地促进中国民营经济发展,金融政策对中国民营经济发展的影响效应明显比财政政策大,且财政金融政策均为中国民营经济发展的单向因果原因。在此基础上,提出了促进中国民营经济转型发展的相关财政金融政策建议。     

中国财政政策规则及其体制稳定性分析

本文构建了内生捕捉我国财政政策体制变化的财政规则,并对产出缺口稳定动机和债务稳定动机反应进行了分析。基于马尔科夫转换财政政策反馈规则的实证估计表明,不同体制下,财政赤字与政府债务和产出缺口之间存在不同的政策反应关系;与基于不变参数识别的规则相比,体制转换财政规则能更好地追踪我国财政赤字的时间序列行为。这意味着,假定财政政策体制总是固定的货币政策规则研究以及基于不变财政体制框架VAR度量财政政策冲击高频率效应的实证研究都应慎重。     

中小企业发展的地方财政政策研究

文章通过分析青海省中小企业在发展中面临的外部问题，提出了加强地方财政政策对中小企业支持力度的相关建议。     

Fiscal policy in good and bad times

In this paper we analyze whether the effect of fiscal policy differs across the business cycle. To tackle this question, we use a regime-switching error-correction framework, where nonlinearities are only modeled in the short-run and have no impact on the long-run equilibrium. Regime specific shocks to government revenue and government purchases are identified using sign restrictions. Linear combinations of the impulse responses of these basic shocks are used to construct a deficit-spending shock and a deficit-financed tax-cut shock. We find that active spending policies have a stronger impact in recession, with multipliers exceeding unity, and should be preferred to deficit-financed tax-cuts.     

Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth

This paper surveys the literature on fiscal policy and economic growth. We present a unifying framework for the analysis of long run growth implications of government expenditures and revenues. We find that several tax rates and expenditure categories exhibit a direct impact on the growth rate of the economy. In a creative synthesis we have assigned the relevant literature to the twelve introduced policy variables. Due to the equivalence of some policy variables we are left with six degrees of freedom, where we need four to internalize the model's intrinsic externalities, leaving two instruments to conduct short run fiscal policy.     

中国的总供给-总需求模型:财政和货币政策分析框架

本文构建了一个具有中国特色的总供给-总需求模型,并利用季度数据对此进行了估计和检验。研究表明,这种具有凯恩斯特点的宏观经济模型能在一定程度上解释中国经济的波动。与此同时,我们对模型的动态稳定性进行了一定程度的数理分析,从而揭示了两大宏观经济政策——财政政策和货币政策对稳定经济的作用。     

Fiscal Surprises at the FOMC

We examine a new set of U.S. fiscal forecasts from the FOMC briefing books. These forecasts are precisely those that were presented to monetary policymakers, and include frequently-updated estimates covering six complete business cycles and several fiscal-policy regimes. We detail the performances of forecast federal expenditures, revenues, surpluses, and structural surpluses in terms of their accuracy, bias, and efficiency. We find that forecast errors can be large economically, even at relatively short forecast horizons. While economic activity became less volatile after 1990, fiscal policy became harder to forecast. Finally, cyclically-adjusted deficit forecasts appear to be over-optimistic around both peaks and troughs of the business cycle, suggesting that fiscal policy is counter-cyclical in downturns and pro-cyclical in the early stages of recoveries.     

促进河北低碳经济发展的财税政策研究

目前,河北"高碳经济"特征十分突出,发展低碳经济势在必行。从财税政策角度分析,河北要发展低碳经济,必需结合本省经济发展实际,在积极落实国家财税政策的同时,因地制宜采取具体措施,建立和完善支持河北经济社会低碳发展模式的财税政策体系。     

Fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies

What is the most appropriate combination of fiscal and monetary policies in economies subject to banking crises and deep recessions? We study this issue using an agent-based model that is able to reproduce a wide array of macro- and micro-empirical regularities. Simulation results suggest that policy mixes associating unconstrained, counter-cyclical fiscal policy and monetary policy targeting employment is required to stabilise the economy. We also show that “discipline-guided” fiscal rules can be self-defeating, as they depress the economy without improving public finances. Finally, we find that the effects of monetary and fiscal policies become sharper as the level of income inequality increases.     

我国货币财政政策存在区域效应的实证分析

货币财政政策是现代国家干预经济的两个最重要的宏观调控政策，关于它们的研究文献数不胜数，但是长期以来一直没有对两政策实施后的区域效应给予足够的重视。本文结合目前我国东中西三大经济地带的经济发展已经存在明显差距的现实，通过两地区的简约化模型对1978-2004年间我国货币政策与财政政策在东部和中西部两个样本地区的作用进行了实证分析，结果表明，我国货币财政政策确实存在区域不对称效应，特别是货币政策，具有明显的区域影响差异。     

支持廉租房建设的财税政策选择

"十二五"期间,继续加强廉租房建设、解决低收入者的住房问题依然是摆在各级政府面前的一个重要的经济问题和社会政治问题。财政税收政策作为一种灵活、有效和重要的政策措施,其政策设计和有效运转,对廉租房建设有着重要作用。本文从理论上阐述了政府介入廉租房领域的必要性和合理性,明确了支持廉租房建设可采取的财税政策工具。对我国现阶段廉租房建设面临的诸如地方政府缺乏积极性、廉租房建设资金不足、廉租房供求矛盾突出以及廉租房分配效率低下等困境进行了系统分析。在此基础上,有针对性地提出了进一步支持廉租房建设的财税策略选择。     

财政政策、货币政策调控与宏观经济稳定——基于新凯恩斯主义垄断竞争模型的分析

本文基于包含金融加速器的新凯恩斯主义垄断竞争框架,研究了财政政策和货币政策冲击对我国宏观经济的影响。实证结果表明,财政政策能够解释部分就业、消费和资本存量波动;货币政策冲击则能够解释大部分通货膨胀、就业波动,以及部分产出、消费和投资波动。总体上,模型能够较好地刻画中国宏观经济波动特征。本文认为今后一段时期内,应当将财政政策更多转向民生领域和基础设施建设,重视货币政策调控,从而更有效地调控宏观经济运行。     

投资需求、利率机制与我国财政政策的有效性

本文在传统凯恩斯模型和新古典总供需模型的基础上构建了一个可计量的财政政策利率效应分析模型,并利用2LS方法对模型进行了估计,得出几点结论:一是我国财政政策对真实利率的影响在统计上并不显著;二是财政政策与真实利率之间无关性的估计结果并没有受财政赤字弥补方式和经济运行机制变化的影响;三是相对于财政政策,我国货币政策对真实利率的影响更显著,货币政策的相机变化通过利率机制对财政政策的有效性产生了一定的抵消作用,但程度有限。上述结论意味着,我国财政政策通过利率机制对私人部门投资需求产生的挤出效应是相当有限的。     

技术外溢与吸收能力:基于开放经济下的内生增长模型分析

通过构建中间产品种类扩张型的内生增长模型,本文探讨了开放经济条件下技术外溢与本国技术吸收能力影响长期经济增长的内在机理。对模型的竞争性市场均衡分析得到了均衡增长路径的稳态增长率,并就解的政策含义进行了讨论。模型的基本结论是：技术吸收能力的提高、人力资本积累以及适度的知识产权保护有利于长期经济增长,然而贸易开放度、技术水平差距对稳态增长率的影响效应具有不确定性。     

我国财政政策对产业结构优化的时变效应

研究目标：财政政策对产业结构优化的时变性影响。研究方法：构建带有随机波动率的时变参数因子扩展向量自回归模型,进而通过三维脉冲响应展开时变性分析。研究发现：财政政策对产业结构优化确实产生了时变效应,在经济衰退时期,应该增加财政支出、提高投资性支出占比,结合小幅度减税、提高营业税和消费税占比;在经济平稳时期,应该减少税收、提高营业税占比、降低增值税占比,结合小幅度增加财政支出、提高投资性支出占比、降低一般公共服务支出占比;在经济高涨时期,应该增加财政支出、提高科技支出和投资性支出占比,结合小幅度减税、提高所得税占比、降低营业税占比。研究创新：应用时变参数计量模型研究了财政政策对产业结构优化的时变效应。研究价值：有助于重新认识财政政策与产业结构优化的关系。     

完善公共文化服务体系的财政政策研究

公共文化服务体系作为"十二五"规划的重中之重,是现代政府公共服务体系的重要组成部分,同时也关系着我国经济社会和人的全面发展。建立健全公共文化服务体系,增强公共文化产品供给和服务能力,不断满足人民群众日益增长的精神文化需求,是政府职能在公共文化领域的具体体现,也是服务型政府的历史使命。本文在深刻阐述公共文化服务体系与政府责任的基础上,通过对政府运用财政手段支持公共文化服务体系建设现状的分析,提出建立和完善公共文化服务体系的财政政策,以期推动社会主义文化大发展大繁荣。     

欧洲货币一体化中的财政约束研究——基于价格水平的财政理论(FTPL)视角

随着目前欧元区财政经济状况的整体恶化,稳定与增长的矛盾凸显,欧盟《稳定与增长公约》框架下的财政约束条款再度引发诸多争议。基于价格水平的财政理论(FTPL)视角,本文试图论证为实现欧元区物价稳定和欧元汇率稳定的双重目的,欧盟《稳定与增长公约》框架下的财政约束有其必要性。     

公务员住房与城市公共住房政策的协调研究

在城市公共住房政策的大背景下研究和设计公务员住房政策对于后者发展的合理性和稳定性具有重要的意义。本文以公务员住房政策与城市公共住房政策的协调为研究对象,主要结论如下:城市公共住房政策面临的是租不起房和买不起房两种巨大的供需缺口并存,而公务员住房问题主要表现为购房的供需缺口。公务员住房政策应以实现内部的公平和全社会的公平为方向,改变完全按职级轮候职工住宅和发放住房补贴的做法,由直接提供转向按困难程度和职级结合的货币化补贴为主,对补贴后依然存在购房困难的公务员,才提供职工住宅和周转房。     

Fiscal forecasting performance in an emerging economy: An empirical assessment of Brazil

This study makes use of Brazilian data to analyze government budget balance forecast errors. Besides the analysis of the quality and efficiency of budget balance forecasts, economic, political, and institutional and governance dimensions are explored. The findings show that the data forecasts have low quality and efficiency. Furthermore, it is observed that the budget forecast error is subject to a backward-looking effect, a bias in the economic growth forecasts, as well as cyclical fluctuations. Finally, electoral cycles represent a source of overestimated forecasts, and strong institutions and governance supported by the public are able to suppress opportunistic motivations in budget forecasts.     

Fiscal retrenchments and the transmission mechanism of the sovereign risk channel for highly indebted countries

We formalize sovereign and private sector default probabilities into a monetary model in order to test the hypothesis, which recently appeared in the literature, of whether the consideration of a sovereign risk channel affects the sign and size of output fiscal multipliers. The model is estimated for the most vulnerable Eurozone countries-characterized by high debt-to-GDP ratio-and stochastically simulated conditional on expenditure and revenue policy measures. We show that, conditional on specific fiscal shocks, the risk channel can operate in a pro-cyclical direction, amplifying the temporary contractionary effects of fiscal retrenchments. We show that both the relations between economic fundamentals and sovereign debt spreads and that between sovereign and credit spreads are weak. Therefore, the effectiveness of the risk channel for fiscal consolidations is small, irrespective of the direction of change in the sovereign default probability.