The interaction of speculators and index investors in agricultural derivatives markets

Through the analysis of the weekly Commodity Futures Trading Commission reports on 12 US traded agricultural commodities, we revisit the heated debate on the impact of index flows on commodities prices. After introducing a novel stock‐to‐use proxy that may be used to represent inventory variations at the intra‐month level, we show that speculators, contrary to index investors, are sensitive to commodity‐specific fundamental information. Their endogeneity to commodities markets hinders the estimation of their market impact. Regarding the market impact of index flows, the endogeneity problem is alleviated in two ways: first, we restrict the scope to agricultural commodities, for which index flows are more exogenous to market prices; second, we introduce two novel instrumental variables that are computed from index flows outside the market under analysis. We find that index investment flows are offset by commercial players, not speculators. The serial correlation of index flows may explain the tendency of speculators to synchronize with index investors. There is strong evidence of an index flows' impact in those commodities markets where speculative and index positions are the most correlated. The market impact of index flows is located in periods of liquidity stress, as is the correlation between speculative and index positions. Overall, our results demonstrate an impact of index investors on some agricultural prices and suggest that the synchronicity between speculative and index positions is an important determinant of this impact.     

Are small‐scale rice farmers in eastern India really inefficient? Examining the effects of microtopography on technical efficiency estimates

The article analyzes how controlling for differences in land types (defined by position on a low‐scale toposequence) affects estimates of farm technical efficiency for rice farms in eastern India. Contrasting previous research, we find that farms are considerably more technically efficient when efficiency estimates are carried out at the plot level and control for plot characteristics rather than at the farm level without such controls. Estimates show farms cultivating modern varieties are technically efficient and plots planted with traditional varieties on less productive lands (upland and midupland) operate close to the production frontier. Significant technical inefficiency is found on more productive lands (medium and lowland plots) planted with traditional rice varieties. The finding that these smallholder rain‐fed rice farms are efficient cultivators on some plots contrasts with previous findings of farm‐level inefficiency (i.e., rejects overarching explanations linked to farm operator ignorance or lack of motivation) and suggests more complex explanations are required to address the inefficiency that is present.     

Supermarkets, wholesalers, and tomato growers in Guatemala

The article shows the asset‐related determinants and the impacts of the participation of small farmers in supermarkets versus traditional market channels in Guatemala. Compared to farmers selling only to the traditional market channels, farmers selling to supermarket channels are larger (but are in the upper tier of the “small farmer” category), have more capital, and are much more specialized in commercial horticulture in general and in tomatoes in particular. While they have higher yields, they also have higher input use, including use of chemicals. In fact, they severely overuse pesticides and fungicides. Moreover, these greater input expenditures mean that their profit rates are roughly similar to those of farmers in the traditional market channel. Supermarket‐channel farmers prefer the more demanding wholesale‐supermarket channel because it offers lower risks and lower transaction costs to market, a variety of quality grades of tomatoes, all year long. In turn, the supermarkets, who do not buy direct but rather source from a few specialized‐dedicated wholesalers, rely on this year‐round supply, lower transaction costs, and consistency of quality.     

Market facilities and agricultural marketing: evidence from Tamil Nadu,India

This article analyzes the effect of facilities and infrastructure available at the marketplace on a farmer's decision to sell at the market. The econometric estimation shows that the likelihood of sales at the market increases significantly with an improvement in market facilities and a decrease in travel time from the village to the market. The results suggest that wealth reduces a farmer's cost of accessing market facilities more than it increases her/his opportunity cost of leisure. The policy simulation indicates that the marginal benefits from an improvement in market facility will favor the poorer farmers in the context of India.     

Impact of conservation agriculture technology on household welfare in Zambia

This article examines the determinants and impact of conservation agriculture (CA) technology adoption on farm household welfare in Zambia. To account for selection bias from both observable and unobservable factors, an endogenous switching regression model is employed to estimate the impact of the technology on continuous outcomes like farm output, throughput accounting ratio (TAR), poverty gap, and severity of poverty. A recursive bivariate probit model is however used for the estimation of impact of adoption on a binary outcome like poverty headcount. The empirical findings demonstrate that the adoption of CA technology increases maize output, and farm TAR and reduces household poverty. Moreover, the results reveal that farmers’ years of schooling, social networks, access to credit, extension services, and machinery as well as soil quality positively influence adoption of CA technology.     

Spatial price efficiency in Mozambique's post-reform maize markets

Maize (Zea mays) shortages and maize price instability continue to occur in Mozambique in spite of policy reforms and great capacity for increased production in northern Mozambique. This study measured the efficiency of spatial maize price arbitrage in Mozambique's post‐reform period. Spatial price inefficiency does not seem to explain why food shortages continue to occur in Mozambique, suggesting nonprice market constraints such as poor infrastructure and poor market institutions as more likely explanations. Baulch's spatial efficiency test indicated that it is not profitable to ship maize from northern surplus maize regions to southern Mozambique. Records of interregional maize shipments show that indeed grain is not being shipped from the north to the south. Market liberalization may have improved spatial price efficiency, but high transfer costs still limit trade and potential benefits from freeing markets. Under these circumstances, food shortages and price instability are likely to continue.     

Agricultural diversification and integrated pest management in Bangladesh

We study factors associated with a shift toward diversified, high‐valued vegetable crops and the incentives associated with the use of IPM methods for vegetable producers in Bangladesh. The primary objective is to measure how IPM technologies affect the crop and technology choices of low‐income rice farmers. A three‐season household optimisation model is used to study crop and technology choice under price and yield uncertainty. The model is parameterised using data from vegetable farms and experimental IPM trials conducted in Bangladesh. Simulation results show that access to IPM technology and IPM availability combined with access to credit increase household welfare and lead to higher rates of vegetable adoption. Off‐farm employment opportunities work against vegetable cultivation and IPM use by risk‐averse farmers. Implications for policy and extension efforts are highlighted.     

Economic growth,convergence, and agricultural economics

After nearly two centuries of lagging behind the industrial countries, growth in many developing countries has surged since the early 1990s. This outperformance has major implications for almost all areas of agricultural economics and, if continued, will likely do so into the future. This article aims to identify the key ways in which the changes in rich and poor country growth rates matter for agricultural economists, as a basis for formulating better research agendas. A key impact arises through sharp increases in demand for agricultural resources as demand for livestock products increases. This changing structure of food demand has important implications for nutrition studies and policies, with the emergence of a double burden of malnutrition. On the supply side, growth in developing countries tends to increase domestic food supply, which is also boosted by increases in research and development spending. Growth in developing countries both stimulates and benefits from increases in infrastructure investment, evaluation of which requires new analytical tools. Negative impacts include the contribution of increased demand for livestock products to global greenhouse gas emissions. In terms of trade policy, growth in developing country is tending to lead to convergence of agricultural policies with the pattern of assistance seen in today's developed countries, raising concerns about the future need to deal with collective action problems, particularly those that increase the volatility of world prices.     

The integration of energy and agricultural markets

This article addresses the evolving links between energy and agricultural markets. Prior to 2005, there was little correlation between energy and agricultural commodity prices. In 2006–2008, with the ethanol boom in the United States, there emerged a strong link between crude oil, gasoline, and corn prices. There was little link between ethanol and corn. However, in late 2008 and 2009, the markets changed as ethanol production came under severe economic pressure and 2 billion out of 12 billion gallons of capacity shut down. During this period ethanol became priced more on corn, as the breakeven corn price helped drive the ethanol market. This article explores the drivers in these markets as well as other major issues facing the corn ethanol industry in the United States such as the blend wall. The article concludes with a review of prospects of a future cellulosic biofuels industry.     

Economic development and the role of agricultural technology

In earlier debates on economic development, the agricultural sector's role was somewhat controversial. While dualistic models highlighted the importance of agriculture, the mainstream literature placed a greater emphasis on the creation of a modern industrial sector. Soon agriculture disappeared from the mainstream development literature to re‐emerge recently with a variety of multiple‐sector growth models emphasizing the key role of agriculture and specifically technology in agriculture. This article is an empirical cross‐country analysis of agricultural technology's role in economic development. Specifically, the hypothesis being tested is whether improvements in agricultural technology have a significant impact on long‐run economic growth. The results indicate that agricultural modernization has a positive effect on both measures of economic growth and human development.     

Accounting for agricultural decline with economic growth in Taiwan

In this paper, we develop an empirical model to decompose the evolution of the agricultural share of GDP into three components: price changes, factor endowment changes and technological change. Our results suggest that relative prices have a positive but small influence on the share of agriculture in GDP in both the long‐run and the short‐run. An increase in capital per unit of labor, on the other hand, is associated with a smaller agricultural share. Technical change has been biased in favor of the agricultural sector but this effect has been swamped by the magnitude of the input effects, in particular, the changes in the capital‐labor ratio.     

Decomposition of gender differentials in agricultural productivity in Ethiopia

A number of studies document gender differentials in agricultural productivity. However, they are limited to region and crop‐specific estimates of the mean gender gap. This article improves on previous work in three ways. First, data representative at the national level and for a wide variety of crops is exploited. Second, decomposition methods—traditionally used in the analysis of wage gender gaps—are employed. Third, heterogeneous effects by women's marital status and along the productivity distribution are analyzed. Drawing on data from the 2011–2012 Ethiopian Rural Socioeconomic Survey, we find an overall 23.4 percentage point productivity differential in favor of men, of which 13.5 percentage points (57%) remain unexplained after accounting for gender differences in land manager characteristics, land attributes, and access to resources. The magnitude of the unexplained fraction is large relative to prior estimates in the literature. A more detailed analysis suggests that differences in the returns to extension services, land certification, land extension, and product diversification may contribute to the unexplained fraction. Moreover, the productivity gap is mostly driven by non‐married female managers—particularly divorced women—; married female managers do not display a disadvantage. Finally, overall and unexplained gender differentials are more pronounced at mid‐levels of productivity.     

The increasing importance of nonfarm income and the changing use of labor and capital in rice farming: the case of Central Luzon, 1979–2003

There have been sharp increases in nonfarm income among farm households in Central Luzon for the last few decades. This study attempts to identify the effects of the increasing nonfarm income on the use of tractors and threshers and on the employment of hired labor as a substitute for family labor. We found that while the increased nonfarm income positively affects the ownership of tractors, it has no significant impact on the use of agricultural machines due presumably to the development of efficient machine rental markets. We also found that the increased nonfarm income leads to the increased use of hired labor, thereby releasing family labor to nonfarm jobs.     

Reforms,globalization, and endogenous agricultural structures

In this article, I draw lessons from two quasi‐natural experiments (the transition process in former Communist countries and the rapid globalization of food chains) on the optimality of farms and agricultural structures more generally. I argue that (a) the farm structures that have emerged from the transition process are much more diverse than expected ex ante; (b) this diversity is to an important extent determined by economic mechanisms which are influenced by initial conditions and reform policies; (c) non‐traditional farm structures have played an important role during transition because they were optimal to address the specific institutional and structural constraints imposed by the transition process; (d) there is more diversity than often argued in the farms that are integrated in global food chains; (e) endogenous institutional (contracting) innovations in food chains may lock existing farm structures in a long‐run institutional framework; and (f) indicators based on farm structures are not a good measure of welfare effects of the globalization of food chains.     

Adoption and welfare impacts of multiple agricultural technologies: evidence from eastern Zambia

Using plot level panel data and multinomial endogenous switching regression, this article analyzes the adoption and welfare impacts of multiple agricultural technologies in eastern Zambia. We adapt a multinomial endogenous switching/treatment effect regression framework to correct for selection bias and endogeneity originating from both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. Results indicate that joint adoption of multiple agricultural technologies had greater impacts on crop yields, household incomes, and poverty than the adoption of individual components of the technology package. Our findings suggest that efforts aimed at raising household incomes and reducing poverty should focus on promoting the adoption of multiple agricultural technologies through provision of improved support services such as extension and input supply.     

Modeling the length and shape of the R&D lag: an application to UK agricultural productivity

This article updates total factor productivity (TFP) growth in UK agriculture from 1953–2005 and shows that public and private research and returns to scale explain TFP. Cointegration and causality tests are used to investigate the validity of attempts to explain UK agricultural productivity with R&D and related technology variables. Then, the length and shape of the lag structures are modeled and compared with the structures that are commonly imposed on the data. The rates of return (ROR) to R&D using the data determined lags differ considerably from those obtained by imposing lag shapes. These comparisons show that the ROR to public R&D are sensitive to the lag shape as well as its length and that the omission of other technology variables, such as mechanical and chemical patents pertaining to agriculture and farm size can bias the ROR.     

Isolation and agricultural productivity

This article examines the mechanisms that transmit isolation into productivity. In particular, we study the effect of isolation and transport infrastructure on welfare and agricultural productivity in the case of Madagascar. Madagascar is a good case study given the bad shape of its infrastructure and therefore the significant variation in isolation. Based on comprehensive household survey data combined with a census of communes, we discover a strong poverty–isolation relationship. Further we find the inverse relationship between agricultural productivity and isolation to be surprisingly strong. We isolate the following reasons why productivity might decline with isolation: (i) transportation‐induced transaction costs, (ii) the inverse relationship between plot size and productivity, (iii) increasing price variability and extensification onto less fertile land, and (iv) insecurity.     

Explaining gender differentials in agricultural production in Nigeria

This article uses data from the General Household Survey Panel 2010–2011 to analyze differences in agricultural productivity across male and female plot managers in Nigeria. The analysis utilizes the Oaxaca‐Blinder decomposition method, which allows for decomposing the unconditional gender gap into: (i) the portion caused by observable differences in the factors of production (endowment effect) and (ii) the unexplained portion caused by differences in returns to the same observed factors of production (structural effect). The analysis is conducted separately for the North and South regions, excluding the west of the country. The findings show that in the North, women produce 28% less than men after controlling for observed factors of production, while there are no significant gender differences in the South. In the decomposition results, the structural effect in the North is larger than the endowment at the mean. Although women in the North have access to less productive resources than men, the results indicate that even if given the same level of inputs, significant differences still emerge. However, for the South, the decomposition results show that the endowment effect is more important than the structural effect. Access to resources explains most of the gender gap in the South and if women are given the same level of inputs as men, the gap will be minimal. The difference in the results for the North and South suggests that policy should vary by region.