Anatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices

Although the potential causes and consequences of recent rising international food prices have attracted widespread attention, many existing appraisals are superficial and/or piecemeal. This article attempts to provide a more comprehensive review of these issues based on the best and most recent research, as well as on fresh theoretical and empirical analysis. We first analyze the causes of the current crisis by considering how well standard explanations hold up against relevant economic theory and important stylized facts. Some explanations turn out to hold up much better than others, especially rising oil prices, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, biofuels demand, and some commodity‐specific explanations. We then provide an appraisal of the likely macro‐ and microeconomic impacts of the crisis on developing countries. We observe a large gap between macro and micro factors, which, when identifying the most vulnerable countries, often point in different directions. We conclude with a brief discussion of what ought to be learned from this crisis.     

Implications of high food prices for poverty in Pakistan

The study estimates the impacts of rising world food prices on poverty in rural and urban areas of Pakistan. Household income and expenditure data for 2004/2005 is used to estimate compensated and uncompensated price and expenditure elasticities using the linear approximation of the almost ideal demand system. Taking the unexpected component of higher domestic food prices in 2007/2008, own and cross price compensated elasticities are used to derive the changes in the quantity consumed, food expenditure and impacts on poverty assuming the food crisis happened in 2004/2005. The results indicate that poverty increased by 34.8%, severely affecting the urban areas where poverty increased by 44.6% as compared to 32.5% in rural areas. The estimates show that 2.3 million people are unable to reach even one‐half of poverty line expenditures while another 13.7 million are just below and 23.9 million are just above the poverty line. In the short run, it is important to ensure food availability to these people. In the long run, the policy environment of subsidizing urban food consumers by keeping wheat prices lower than the international price, needs to be reconsidered to provide the right incentives to increase food availability.     

The impact of the use of new technologies on farmers’ wheat yield in Ethiopia: evidence from a randomized control trial

In 2013, Ethiopia's Agricultural Transformation Agency introduced the Wheat Initiative to increase smallholder productivity. In this article, we measure the impacts of the Wheat Initiative package of technologies, and its marketing assistance component alone, on yields among a promotional group of farmers. The package includes improved techniques, improved inputs, and a guaranteed market for the crop. Relying on crop‐cut measures and farmers’ own assessments, we find that full package led to an average 14% higher yields. Implementation of the Wheat Initiative was successful in making certified seed and fertilizer accessible to farmers and increasing their uptake, though only 61% of the intervention group adopted row planting and few farmers received marketing assistance. The measured yield difference may underestimate the true yield difference associated with the technology because of incomplete adoption of the recommended practices by intervention farmers and adoption of some practices by control farmers.     

Market facilities and agricultural marketing: evidence from Tamil Nadu,India

This article analyzes the effect of facilities and infrastructure available at the marketplace on a farmer's decision to sell at the market. The econometric estimation shows that the likelihood of sales at the market increases significantly with an improvement in market facilities and a decrease in travel time from the village to the market. The results suggest that wealth reduces a farmer's cost of accessing market facilities more than it increases her/his opportunity cost of leisure. The policy simulation indicates that the marginal benefits from an improvement in market facility will favor the poorer farmers in the context of India.     

Matching food security and malnutrition indicators: evidence from Southeast Asia

This article aims to understand the relation between household food security and individual undernutrition. The multitude of indicators available raises the question which aspects of food security are captured by the respective indicator. In our analysis, we first assess the relation between the dimensions of food security and households’ socioeconomic characteristics. Second, we examine whether household indicators detect undernutrition in children. Finally, we investigate the role of individual‐specific characteristics for child undernutrition. The analysis is based on a novel data set of 1,200 rural households from Cambodia and Lao PDR, which combines household‐ and individual‐level data. We capture household food security by three indicators including a dietary diversity score, a consumption behavior measure, and an experiential measure. Individual nutrition status is measured via anthropometric indicators. Our results show that different household‐level indicators capture fundamentally different aspects of food security. Moreover, household food security fails to explain stunting for children under five. Dietary diversity indicators, however, explain underweight in children to a small extent. We call for more research on intrahousehold allocation of food and stress the implications of our research for the design and targeting of food and nutrition support programs.     

Reforms,globalization, and endogenous agricultural structures

In this article, I draw lessons from two quasi‐natural experiments (the transition process in former Communist countries and the rapid globalization of food chains) on the optimality of farms and agricultural structures more generally. I argue that (a) the farm structures that have emerged from the transition process are much more diverse than expected ex ante; (b) this diversity is to an important extent determined by economic mechanisms which are influenced by initial conditions and reform policies; (c) non‐traditional farm structures have played an important role during transition because they were optimal to address the specific institutional and structural constraints imposed by the transition process; (d) there is more diversity than often argued in the farms that are integrated in global food chains; (e) endogenous institutional (contracting) innovations in food chains may lock existing farm structures in a long‐run institutional framework; and (f) indicators based on farm structures are not a good measure of welfare effects of the globalization of food chains.     

Enhancing food security in South Sudan: the role of markets and regional trade

South Sudan faces serious problems of food insecurity due to low levels of domestic food production, periodic droughts, widespread poverty, and since late 2013, renewed armed conflict. This article explores market price behavior using cointegration analysis and estimates the effects of production and trade shocks through multimarket model simulations. We show that market prices in the capital city, Juba, of both maize and sorghum are cointegrated with import parity prices of these cereals sourced from Uganda, consistent with observed trade flows. Model simulations, using econometrically estimated demand parameters, suggest that private sector imports of maize and wheat would greatly mitigate the potential fall in consumption in the case of a decline in domestic cereal production. Other simulations indicate that if total imports of cereals are reduced by one‐third (still more than two times the levels of food aid in 2013) because of disruptions to private market flows, domestic prices of cereals could rise by 45% or more. The article concludes that whatever measures are taken involving national food security reserves, it is crucial that government policy serves to maintain incentives for private sector imports to avoid destabilizing market supplies, domestic prices, and ultimately, food consumption of the poor.     

The impact of coffee certification on small‐scale producers’ livelihoods: a case study from the Jimma Zone,Ethiopia

What is the impact of product certification on small‐scale farmers’ livelihoods? To what extent does the participation of Ethiopian small‐scale coffee farmers in certified local cooperative structures improve their socioeconomic situation? To answer these questions, this article employs household data of 249 coffee farmers from six different cooperatives collected in the Jimma zone of Southwestern Ethiopia in 2009. Findings show that the certification of coffee cooperatives has in total a low impact on small‐scale coffee producers’ livelihoods mainly due to (1) low productivity, (2) insignificant price premium, and (3) poor access to credit and information from the cooperative. Differences in production and organizational capacities between the local cooperatives are mirrored in the extent of the certification benefits for the smallholders. “Good” cooperatives have reaped the benefits of certification, whereas “bad” ones did not fare well. In this regard the “cooperative effect” overlies the “certification effect.”     

Land degradation, drought and food security in a less-favoured area in the Ethiopian highlands: a bio-economic model with market imperfections

This paper presents a bio‐economic model of Andit Tid, a severely degraded crop‐livestock farming system with high population density and good market access in the highlands of Ethiopia. Land degradation, population growth, stagnant technology, and drought threaten food security in the area. Drought or weather risk appears to have increased in recent years. The bio‐economic model is used to analyse the combined effects of land degradation, population growth, market imperfections and increased risk of drought on household production, welfare and food security. We find that the indirect effects of drought on household welfare through the impact on crop and livestock prices are larger than the direct production effects of drought. Provision and adoption of credit for fertiliser, although risky in itself, may lead to increased grain production and improved household welfare and food security. Provision of credit may have a negative effect on conservation incentives but this effect may be mitigated by linking a conservation requirement to the provision of credit for fertiliser.     

Toward a green revolution in Africa: what would it achieve,and what would it require?

The current global food crisis has reemphasized the costliness of Africa's failure to achieve food security and poverty reduction. The instrument by which other more successful developing countries achieved these outcomes was a “Green Revolution” in agriculture. While previous research has provided largely discursive appraisals of the viability of an African Green Revolution, this article adopts a more rigorous methodology to address that question. First, an economy‐wide multimarket model, augmented with existing poverty–growth elasticities, is developed to assess the likely impacts of a rapid acceleration in food production (of the kind witnessed in previous Green Revolutions) on food prices, consumption and demand, farmer revenue, and poverty. Our results suggest that a rapid growth in staple production, together with more integrated regional markets, would reduce food prices by roughly 20–40% for consumers and 10–20% for producers among the major crops. This translates into a large rise in farm revenues, annual agricultural growth rates of 6.5% or higher, broader income growth and food security, and over 70 million Africans being lifted out of poverty. The article concludes by emphasizing the kinds of fundamental policy actions and resources that would be required for achieving these outcomes.     

Assets,activities and income generation in rural Mexico: factoring in social and public capital⋆

In recent years, there has been increasing emphasis in the rural development literature on the multiple income‐generating activities undertaken by rural households and the importance of assets in determining the capacity to undertake these activities. Controlling for the endogeneity of activity choice and applying Lee's generalisation of Amemiya's two‐step estimator to a simultaneous equation model, household returns to assets from multiple activities are explored for the Mexico ejido sector. To incorporate the multiple variables representing social and public capital into the analysis, factor analysis is used. The results indicate that the asset position of the household has a significant effect on household participation in income‐generating activities and returns to those activities. Furthermore, the inclusion of measures of social and public capital into the analysis show that these assets play an important role in income‐generating activities and that the influence is dependent on the type of social and public capital as well as the particular activity.     

The increasing importance of nonfarm income and the changing use of labor and capital in rice farming: the case of Central Luzon, 1979–2003

There have been sharp increases in nonfarm income among farm households in Central Luzon for the last few decades. This study attempts to identify the effects of the increasing nonfarm income on the use of tractors and threshers and on the employment of hired labor as a substitute for family labor. We found that while the increased nonfarm income positively affects the ownership of tractors, it has no significant impact on the use of agricultural machines due presumably to the development of efficient machine rental markets. We also found that the increased nonfarm income leads to the increased use of hired labor, thereby releasing family labor to nonfarm jobs.     

An Analysis of the Key Factors Influencing Farmer’s Choice of Crop,Kibamba Ward,Tanzania

The need for further research into indigenous knowledge, in the context of agrarian development strategies, led to this investigation of one aspect of local knowedge; that of crop choice. Through the use of point score analysis, research was conducted in the Kibamba Ward located in the peri‐urban zone of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The main aims were to investigate the key factors underlying farmers’ choice of crop as well as to assess the differences in the decision‐making process between commercial and subsistence farmers. Vegetable cultivation was observed as the main practice, influenced particularly by the physical environment, the availability of machinery as well as certain economic factors. A significant difference in decision making among subsistence and commercial farmers was found. Subsistence farmers placed greater emphasis on the taste of the crop, whereas commercial farmers were predictably more influenced by the market. In addition, this study highlights several practical areas of concern regarding water resources, basic machinery and the lack of formal extension provision in the area. Although the complexity of crop choice is portrayed, a need for future research in different geographical contexts is noted.     

The effects of a large discrete maize price increase on the distribution of household welfare and poverty in rural Kenya1

This study estimates the effects of a large discrete maize price increase on the welfare of a sample of rural Kenyan households. The usual first‐order welfare approximation formula is extended to a second‐order formula that allows for supply and demand responses to the price change. Results show that many rural households are not affected greatly by the price change, and there are about as many gainers as losers. However, these full sample results mask important differences across regions. Welfare gains generally take place in major production areas while losses are in areas where most households are net buyers of maize. Semiparametric methods are used to investigate the relationship between income and the size of the welfare effect, and poverty dominance techniques are applied to study the impacts of the maize price increase on rural poverty.     

You get what you pay for: the link between price and food safety in Kenya

The lack of a reliably safe food supply in developing countries imposes both health and economic costs. Food safety is one of several dimensions of food quality that are typically unobservable at the time of purchase. Branding can overcome this information problem by allowing firms to build reputations based on the quality of their products. If a reputation for food safety is valued directly by consumers, or if food safety is correlated with other valued attributes, firms producing safer food should be able to use their brand equity to charge higher prices. In addition, firms with stronger brand equity have stronger incentives to meet food safety standards in order to maintain that equity. Using data from more than 900 maize flour samples representing 23 distinct brands in eastern and central Kenya, we explore the relationship between price and contamination with aflatoxin. Aflatoxin is a fungal toxin common in maize, groundnuts, and other crops around the world. We find a strong negative correlation between price and contamination at the brand level, consistent with the hypothesized positive relationship between brand equity and food quality.     

The impact of the 2008 financial crisis on dynamic productivity growth of the Spanish food manufacturing industry. An impulse response analysis

The emergence of a financial crisis is an event that can impact the fortunes of nearly all economic agents. The focus here is on the 2008 financial crisis and how firms’ productivity growth was impacted by this crisis in the years that followed. This article focuses on dynamic productivity growth and its components using a firm‐level data set of Spanish meat processing, dairy processing, and oils and fats firms. The impulse response analysis shows that the impact of the crisis on dynamic productivity growth is negative and persistent in the oils and fats industry, initially positive but then negative in the meat processing industry, and positive in the dairy processing industry. The observed magnitudes of change in indicator are between 2% and 5% for oils and fats industries, and of 1% in both dairy and meat industries. Our analysis further confirms that firms’ size is an important factor in explaining how crisis impacts dynamic productivity growth and its components, while we find only slight evidence regarding the firms’ experience in the market.     

The evolution of global farming land: facts and interpretations

Although land plays a crucially important role in economic development and structural transformation, the causes and consequences of the evolution of farming land have received scant attention in recent decades. In this article, I document global and regional changes in aggregate agricultural land use, per capita land use, and average farm sizes. The spatial distribution of global farming land has changed dramatically, with developed countries substantially reducing their share of global agricultural land, and land‐abundant developing countries substantially increasing their share. In per capita terms, we see a rather different pattern, with average farm sizes increasing in rich and more commercialized agricultural systems, and generally declining or staying constant in poorer and less commercialized systems. These outcomes are the result of complex processes that are not always well understood. I conclude the article by suggesting new, or neglected, areas of research that would facilitate a better understanding of these critically important developments.     

Farm share of the food dollar: an IO approach for the United States and Canada

This article develops a method for using input–output data to calculate a farm share estimate for all food rather than the typical approach of estimating a price spread for an individual product. The farm share of the food dollar is approximately 14% in the United States and 17% in Canada. The farm share increased somewhat during the commodity price boom but has generally fallen steadily by approximately 20% since 1997. While the farm share of expenditures on food for home consumption is approximately 22% across both countries, it is 4% in the United States and 7% in Canada for meals consumed away from home. The empirical framework can be extended to other countries given the extensive use of System of National Account data making international and temporal comparisons possible across farm and food marketing systems.