EVA视角的上市公司财务预警实证研究

本文以我国A股上市公司为研究对象,选取了65家处于财务困境的公司和75家财务正常的公司为样本,在传统财务指标的基础上引入EVA,运用主成分分析法构建了财务困境模型。结果表明,相对于传统的财务指标,EVA对企业的财务困境具有较强的判别能力,模型具有超前的预测能力。     

基于时间序列上市公司的财务预警实证研究——以我国制造业上市公司为例

本文以我国制造业上市公司为研究对象,利用其被ST前三年的季度时间序列数据建立财务预警模型,以期能反映上市公司财务变化的动态累积效应。研究表明：基于时间序列数据建立的logistic财务预警模型预测效果优于基于截面数据的财务预警模型;预警方法上logistic逻辑回归较fisher多元判别更佳;模型实证结果显示,公司盈利能力、每股收益和总经理持股比例对公司财务困境有显著影响。     

利益相关者财务预警系统

财务危机又称为财务困境,其最为严重的情况就是破产。国外破产(或企业经营失败)预测模型的研究已经比较成熟,研究范围较广,具有很高的可操作性和准确性。我国学者从20世纪90年代以来,开始研究上市公司财务困境预警问题,从研究内容来看,包括财务困境预测模型的理论构建、财务预警实证模型、财务困境成本研究、财务预警管理系统研究等。主要集中于对财务预警模型的实证研究,包括对预测变量的研究、分     

遗传算法优化上市公司财务预警的实证研究

<正>一引言企业进行预测、防范、控制和处理财务危机,迫切需要建立一个有效的财务困境预测系统,以便对公司的未来财务状况进行分析和预测,及时将企业财务困境扼杀在萌芽状态。本文针对我国目前上市公司的具体情况,利用我国上市公司近几年的数据资料,分别采用BP神经网络和遗传算法优化BP神经网络的方法,构建了基于财务指标和引入非财务信息的财务危机预警模型,旨在财务危机模型系统的实证研究方法上有所创新,提高模型预测的准确度和建模速度,同时扩大模型的适用性。     

基于Logit模型的A股上市公司财务困境预警研究

本文采用2008到2010年的财务数据,选取有代表性的财务指标,对A股上市公司中面临财务困境的47家公司和没有面临财务困境的47家公司利用Logit模型进行估计和预测分析。分析结果表明,Logit模型的预测是有效的,具有良好的精度,是一种有效的财务困境分析和预测工具。     

基于Logistic模型的物流业上市公司财务预警

从物流业104家A股上市公司中选取了60家上市公司作为样本,分别用提取主成分构建逻辑回归模型和原指标构建逻辑回归模型的方法进行财务预警研究,得出了以下结论:用聚类分析方法判断上司公司是否处于财务困境能减少误差且更具有现实意义,方便投资者做出投资决策;主成分构建的逻辑回归模型和原指标构建的逻辑回归模型预测效果并无显著差异,构建的Logistic模型预测正确性都在80%左右,预测效果良好;在以后研究物流业上市公司财务预警时,必须考虑选取主营业务收入增长率、流动资产周转率、现金债务总额比和现金流量比率四个财务指标。     

基于SVM多分类模型的上市公司财务困境预测

目前的财务困境预测模型大多局限于二分类研究,而公司陷入财务困境往往会经历一个逐步衰败的过程,简单的二分类有时会掩盖某些上市公司财务状况逐渐变差的事实。为了更准确地判断上市公司的财务状况,将其按照盈利能力分为财务健康公司、财务亚健康公司和财务困境公司3类,并运用t-1年和t-2年的面板数据,采用基于平均影响值的变量筛选方法构建了SVM多分类模型。实证结果表明,模型的预测能力较好,能够以较少的特征变量实现较高的分类精度,是切实有效的。     

民营上市公司财务困境锁定的实证研究

本文运用路径锁定理论,对民营上市公司财务困境形成过程进行研究,并选取在上海、深圳证券交易所公开上市且陷入财务困境的民营上市公司为样本,对民营上市公司财务困境锁定进行了实证分析。研究表明,民营上市公司财务困境存在路径锁定现象,不同类型的财务困境公司存在不同的路径锁定。     

基于XGBoost的上市公司财务舞弊预测模型研究

研究目标:探讨如何利用大数据和机器学习方法对上市公司财务数据和非财务数据进行分析和挖掘，并应用于上市公司财务舞弊识别和预测。研究方法:提出一种基于机器学习方法的上市公司财务舞弊预测模型Xscore,对上市公司财务舞弊进行预测。研究发现:Xscore模型能够提高模型预测的准确率，在准确率、召回率、AUC指标、KS值、PSI稳定性等方面均优于Fscore模型和Cscore模型，更适合我国上市公司财务舞弊预测。研究创新:基于2000～2020年中国上市公司数据集为观测样本，通过Benford定律、LOF局部异常法、IF无监督学习法，解决了机器学习应用于财务舞弊识别研究时普遍面临的灰色样本问题，甄选兼具领域特性和统计特征的特征变量；首次将XGBoost集成学习方法应用到上市公司财务舞弊预测分析中，有效提高了上市公司财务舞弊准确率。研究价值:本文将XGBoost集成学习方法引入上市公司财务舞弊识别领域，有助于促进人工智能、机器学习在会计学中的研究与应用，为促进上市公司披露高质量的财务信息和维护资本市场秩序提供参考。     

基于财务与非财务指标的财务困境预警研究——以制造业上市公司为例

本文以沪深A股市场2005-2009年294家制造业上市公司为样本,以因财务状况异常而被ST作为公司发生财务困境的标志,分别建立了仅包含财务比率指标的单一模型和同时包含财务和非财务指标的综合模型。研究结果表明,加入非财务类指标后的综合模型,无论是在预测能力方面还是在误判成本方面均得到显著优化。     

Empirical analysis of up-or-out rules for promotion policies

Previous research in the areas of tournaments, human capital, and learning theory have shown that promotion is a function of human capital, experience, ability, and wage growth. These variables were used to estimate a Cox regression using data from a single firm. The survival rates for a Cox regression and an up-or-out regression model are computed. The results suggest that certain up-or-out models are valid even when the firm does not have such a policy and show that an up-or-out procedure predicts the promotion and exit survival rates as well as a Cox regression.     

Corporate financial distress: The case of publicly listed firms in an emerging market economy

Occurrences of financial distress (FD) are not readily obvious yet can span several periods. This paper examines episodes of FD using industry‐relative (IR) firm‐/ accounting‐, market‐ and macro‐level information. Mixed logit regressions reveal that firm‐ and market‐based measures, as well as macro‐level variables explain the likelihood of FD in 263 publicly listed non‐banking firms in the Philippines during the period 1995 to 2018. Rates of identification of firms in financial distressed states of close to 69 percent are obtained at a cutoff probability of 0.30 in the model with time‐varying intercept and slope. This study shows the importance of recognizing heterogeneous firm behavior. The ability to more accurately predict the probability of FD and to determine the financial health of firms can help financial institutions in allocating funds and policy makers in predicting crises episodes.     

Tapping Deep Pockets: The Role of Resources and Social Capital on Financial Capital Acquisition by Biotechnology Firms in Biotech–Pharma Alliances

Strategic alliances with pharmaceutical firms allow small biotechnology firms to acquire needed financial capital in exchange for sharing new, cutting‐edge technologies. This study draws from aspects of resource‐based view and social capital theory to examine the factors that influence the extent of financial capital biotech firms acquire when forming an alliance with pharmaceutical firms. Using a sample of 184 alliances from the period 1995–2000, we found that alliances where the pharmaceutical firm has greater management control are associated with greater acquisition of financial capital by the biotech firm. We also found that the credibility of the pharmaceutical firm is positively associated with the extent of financial capital acquired by the biotechnology firm and that the number of patents that the biotech firm has is negatively associated to the financial capital the biotech firm receives. We discuss the implications of our findings for theory, research, and management practice.     

Less is More,or Not? On the Interplay between Bundles of Slack Resources,Firm Performance and Firm Survival

Although a significant body of research has investigated the independent effects of distinct types of slack resources, current theoretical and empirical work does not sufficiently clarify how bundles of slack resources affect firm outcomes. Drawing on the resource constraints literature and the slack literature, we investigate how distinct bundles of financial and human resource slack influence firm performance and survival. Using a sample of 4715 European information and communication technology firms, we show that neither parallel resource abundance (having slack in financial and human resources) nor parallel resource constraints (lacking slack in financial and human resources) are optimal for firm performance and survival. However, firms with selective constraints that combine slack in financial resources with constraints in human resources exhibit superior performance without decreased survival prospects. Taken together, this study extends current research by providing a more nuanced view of the relationships between slack resources, firm performance, and firm survival.     

Forecasting financial crises for an enterprise by using the Grey Markov forecasting model

The business environment is rapidly changing and some enterprises have announced unexpected restructurings, leading to stagnating stock prices and declines in their business performance. To prepare for calamity, it is becoming increasingly important for enterprise managers to use current financial data for short-term financial forecasting. Managers and investors are increasingly concerned with immediately and accurately forecasting firm financial crises using a limited amount of financial data. This work employs Z-Score value, which can be used to measure multinomial financial crisis index for forecasting, and utilizes Grey Markov forecasting for valuation. Based on the research results, the accuracy of the Grey Markov forecasting model is as expected, with excellent Z-Score, and the model can rapidly forecast the likelihood of firm financial crises. The study results can provide a good reference for government and financial institutions in examining financial risk, and for investors in selecting investment targets.     

上市公司制造业财务预警实证研究

选取了2003-2006年上海、深圳交易所A股市场制造业90家财务危机公司和90家所配对的正常公司为样本。选取了能够体现公司四方面业绩的8个指标,通过因子分析和判别分析,建立企业财务预警模型来对公司情况进行预测。预测精度达到83%,所建立的模型具有较好的预测效果。     

Why doesn’t downsizing deliver? A multi-level model integrating downsizing,social capital,dynamic capabilities,and firm performance

Firms downsize to improve their bottom line results often in reactive response to negative external shocks, such as economic downturns, but even in proactive efforts to enhance organizational performance when they are financially ‘healthy’, such as restructuring. Research reveals, however, that not only does downsizing generally fail to improve a firm’s financial performance, but that it may even lead to reduced financial performance. To investigate this puzzling outcome, we build on previous research and integrate the concepts of downsizing, social capital, dynamic capabilities and performance in a multi-level model as well as discuss how social capital mediates the relationship between downsizing and dynamic capabilities. Thereafter, we develop (a) four propositions to elucidate how changes to the structural dimension of social capital due to downsizing, i.e. the removal of three key social network positions and changes to the firm’s network structure, negatively mediate the relationship between downsizing and a firm’s dynamic capabilities, and (b) two propositions incorporating internal (knowledge intensity) and external (institutional pressures) contextual variables in our model. We conclude by discussing how our research contributes to the downsizing and SHRM literature as well as the resource-based view and social capital literature before providing suggestions for future research and practitioners.     

Exploring creative entrepreneurs’ happiness: cognitive style,guanxi and creativity

Traditional economic theories generally assume that entrepreneurs’ satisfaction is largely affected by financial performance of their entrepreneurial business, while recent research suggests that entrepreneurs’ happiness is more important than financial success. Drawing upon the theories of entrepreneurial cognition and social networks, we develop a model to explore the factors influencing entrepreneurs’ happiness. A total of 270 creative entrepreneurs in Taiwan’s creative industries are studied. Results show that entrepreneurs’ creating cognitive style has a positive effect on both entrepreneurs’ creativity and firm creativity, but entrepreneurs’ planning cognitive style has a negative effect. Findings indicate that entrepreneurs with strong family ties and business ties have high level of individual creativity and firm creativity, which then have a positive influence on entrepreneurs’ happiness.     

CEO compensation: does it pay to be green?

The relationship between chief executive officer (CEO) compensation and various organizational variables (i.e., size, length of tenure of the CEO, board composition and firm performance) has been explored in academic research. However, the relationship between CEO compensation and the firm's reputation based on the firm's commitment to the community and the environment has been relatively unexamined in the academic research. This study's purpose is to empirically examine this relationship using the Fortune Reputation Index as revised by Brown and Perry (1995) . Using a sample of 186 firms in 1990 and 188 firms in 1991, the relationships between CEO compensation and organization size, financial performance and environmental reputation are examined. The results of the study demonstrate that there is a strong relationship between CEO compensation and firm environmental reputation, firm size and firm financial performance. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. and ERP Environment     

Top Management Teams, Strategy and Financial Performance: A Meta-Analytic Examination

abstract    A considerable amount of research has investigated the linkage between top management team (TMT) characteristics and firm financial performance. Much of this research relies on demographic data. While these data are reliable and accessible, findings across studies are not consistent. Meta-analysis of several TMT indicators and firm financial performance provides modest support for direct relationships but indicates moderating influences. Further meta-analysis and a confirmatory factor analysis enrich these findings by examining potential moderating and intervening factors.