中国财政政策是否具有顺周期性

作为反周期工具的财政政策,调控行为及效果是研究的一个焦点之一。本文通过梳理相关理论,利用计量方法、设计相机财政统计量、检验财政政策行为特征,得出如下结论:我国财政收入受经济周期影响显著,具有较强的顺周期性。财政支出总量波动顺周期行为显著,但结构变量波动周期特征不一,从类别上分析,购买性支出变量较转移支付变量顺周期特征明显;从时间上分析,财政支出在1998年之前具有一定的顺周期特征,之后逐渐呈现出经济繁荣期的顺周期与经济萧条期的逆周期并存的非对称性特征。与其他国相比,中国相机执行了更多积极的财政刺激措施,在经济下滑时期表现出更高的逆周期性;在经济上升时期具有更高的顺周期性;相机抉择效应大于自动稳定器效应,因此具有显著的非对称性顺周期。     

地方财政政策逆周期调节：财政分权还是债务增发*

财政政策工具实际操作偏离最初设计将会降低政策工具的调控效果，导致宏观经济波动加剧。针对地方政府财政政策的逆周期性调控目标，本文关注财政分权深化和政府债务增发的逆周期性效应。研究发现：地方政府财政政策总体呈现顺周期特征。财政分权程度的提高放大了地方财政政策的顺周期性。地方政府债务增发使地方财政政策呈现逆周期特征。地方政府财政政策及其收入面、支出面均呈现顺周期性，由“顺”转“逆”的债务平衡点分别为0137，0113，0209。当前绝大部分地区的债务规模都在债务平衡点之下。驱动地方政府债务逆周期调控的内在因素是官员晋升激励。晋升激励的程度越高，地方债务逆周期调控的力度就越大。但外部市场融资环境的波动削弱了地方政府债务逆周期调控的力度。本文的政策主张是，不宜过度财政分权，应该扩大地方债发行规模，促使地方财政政策逆周期调节。     

中国金融经济周期波动与财政货币政策协同调控效应分析

实现经济与金融的双重稳定和协调发展是新时期宏观政策调控的重要任务。基于带有时变参数的因子扩展向量自回归模型与动态溢出指数方法对中国金融周期的波动特征及其与经济周期的关联动态展开的分析结果表明,中国金融周期与经济周期之间存在复杂的交互影响关系。整体而言,金融波动对经济波动的溢出影响较强,而经济波动对金融波动的定向影响则相对较弱。进一步地,基于包含潜在门限的时变参数向量自回归模型进行的反事实模拟分析表明,财政政策与货币政策的协同运用有助于实现经济与金融双重稳定的调控目标。平抑经济与金融波动有必要建立健全财政政策短期功效与货币政策长期功效之间的协调机制,并进一步强化价格型货币政策的预调微调机制,以更好地应对内外部金融冲击,实现经济与金融的协调稳定发展。     

财政政策周期特征研究：金融危机以来的争论与共识

财政政策周期特征是近年来研究财政政策有效性的新视角。现有研究普遍指出发达国家的财政政策是逆周期的，但是发展中国家却呈现出明显的顺周期特征。本文回顾了金融危机以来关于财政政策周期特征研究中所存在的争论与共识，包括研究结论的一致性、政策变量选择和方法论分歧、理论解释和中国财政政策研究的基本结论。并以美国中长期预算和智利结构预算为例分析了缓解财政顺周期调控、实现逆周期调控的制度设计经验。     

土地财政与中国经济波动

本文通过对我国2008—2016年的数据整理发现,经济上升时,住宅用地价格与基础设施投资同步上升,但地方政府对企业的征税却反向变化,即存在地方税收政策的反周期现象;同时我们还发现,住宅用地价格在大小和波动上均显著大于工业用地价格。根据发现的特征事实,我们构建了一个反映中国地方政府土地财政行为的DSGE模型。在本模型中,地方政府区分了住宅用地和工业用地、用税收收入和卖地收入为基础设施建设融资,并求解Ramsey最优财政问题。我们通过对模型的贝叶斯估计,从理论和数量上剖析了土地财政动态加速器机制,并发现这一机制能够很好地解释中国经济波动的特征事实。     

量化监管下商业银行顺周期行为及其矫正机制研究

随着巴塞尔委员会逆周期资本缓冲制度的确定,量化监管下商业银行的顺周期行为及其矫正机制再次成为热议的焦点问题。本文讨论了资本监管与会计监管这两个最为重要的量化监管制度所导致的顺周期性。前者的顺周期性源于风险评估技术的内在缺陷,后者的顺周期性则主要通过贷款损失准备与公允价值计量予以体现。本文提出了四点相应的矫正机制,包括根据宏观经济状况逆周期调整资本充足率要求;引入动态贷款损失准备机制;在不活跃市场中慎用公允价值计量;加强与会计准则及货币政策制定机构的协调。     

财政分权、融资约束与税收政策周期性

中国的税收立法权集中,而税收征管执法权却高度分散,宏观税收政策的周期性应由中央和地方政府的财政行为共同决定。本文在税收平滑模型基础上引入财政分权体制下国税和地税部门两个税收政策执行主体,发现中央和地方债务融资约束的不同以及税收共享机制将导致中央、地方税收政策周期相背离——中央税收政策是逆周期的,地方税收政策是顺周期的,而宏观税收政策是非周期性的。基于中国2002—2013年间29个省级单位国、地税征管数据的实证检验为中央、地方税收政策周期相背离的理论假说提供了经验证据。本文的发现不仅为理解税收征管体制改革提供了一个新的视角,而且对优化中央"减税降费"政策效果,从分税制、地方债务、转移支付等财政体制源头上治理税收政策顺周期行为具有参考价值。     

宏观调控中的周期与反周期力量——2004年宏观经济分析夏季报告

随着中国市场化的进程,中国宏观调控中周期和反周期力量发生了深刻的变化。这主要表现在三个方面:一是中央政府和地方政府在宏观调控中的地位和作用发生了变化;二是伴随着经济结构的变化,政府和企业(特别是政府与民营企业)的关系发生了变化;三是宏观调控中财政和货币政策的地位及作用发生了变化。本文分析了这些变化形成的背景及对经济周期与宏观调控所产生的影响,并探讨了由这些变化所导致的本轮经济周期中宏观经济数据中的一些特殊现象。     

宏观政策特征对大类资产收益和风险影响：机理与实证检验

选取2003-2021年中国股票、债券和大宗商品月度数据，在构建中国宏观政策指数的基础上，实证考察宏观政策的松紧程度和周期性特征对大类资产收益和风险的影响及作用机制。研究发现，紧缩的货币政策周期对股票和债券资产收益、债券资产的收益率波动有显著的负向影响，紧缩的财政政策周期对股票和债券资产收益有显著的正向影响，对股票资产的收益率波动有显著的负向影响；财政政策趋紧对股票资产收益有显著的负向影响，货币政策和财政政策趋紧均会增强股票资产收益的波动性，货币政策趋紧对商品资产收益率的波动具有显著的抑制作用；宏观政策的松紧程度和周期性特征会通过影响物价水平进而影响股票和债券资产的收益以及股票资产收益率波动，宏观政策的松紧程度和周期性特征会通过影响市场情绪进而影响债券资产收益。     

政治商业周期及其中国化:理论发展与经验检验

政治家如何赢得更多的支持上台执政是中西方政府换届面临的共同难题。2020年美国大选再次引起全球密切关注。在欧美民主制度安排下,公民选票具有决定性作用,这便为政治家创造了足够的激励刻意营造选前经济繁荣以谋求连选连任,为此特朗普精心营造选前金融和经济繁荣。诺德豪斯创设的机会主义模型为政治商业周期开辟了理论空间,此后对欧美发达国家选举的实证检验推动了政治商业周期理论的繁荣,特别是五大模型的成熟;而对新兴国家的经验分析进一步拓展了政治商业周期的研究空间、增强了理论活力。区别于西方政治商业周期,中国政治商业周期表现为显著的"任期周期"特性,即地方政府主官实际任期分布及政治更替所带来的经济波动影响,就经验研究而言,具体表现为倒U型分布及相关形式特征,如"三上二下式倒U型分布"。对中国问题的探讨拓展了政治商业周期理论的内涵,有助于增强对中国模式的认识,并丰富新政治经济学的研究内容。     

Fiscal Convergence, Business Cycle Volatility, and Growth

This paper analyzes the effects of fiscal convergence on business cycle volatility and growth. Using a panel of 11 EMU and 21 OECD countries and 40 years of data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have smoother business cycles. That is, fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP) is systematically associated with smoother business cycles. We also find evidence that reduced business cycle volatility through higher fiscal convergence stimulates growth. Our empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.     

政府投资、政府消费与世界经济周期:以中国为例

本文从世界经济周期理论模型出发,从理论上证明政府支出的变动将会影响本国或他国经济周期,并证明当参与主体“势均力敌”时,政府支出对世界经济周期的影响与当两国相差悬殊时政府支出对世界经济周期的影响不同。文章以美国为例,分析了不同类别的政府支出对世界经济周期的影响程度不同。同时,文章还以中国为例,证实了发展中国家的政府支出与世界经济周期的关系与发达国家之间的投资与世界经济周期的关系不同,也以计量经济模型分析了政府支出及其滞后值对世界经济周期的影响,并指出作为发展中国家的中国政府支出在应对世界经济危机时,具有稳定功能,也具有“投资”的性质。     

Externality in labor supply and government spending

Standard business cycle models face difficulties generating (i) government spending multipliers exceeding unity and (ii) stabilizing effects of government size. Using a simple model with externality in labor supply, we show that a sufficient degree of complementarity between aggregate and private labor supplies is key to reproducing these stylized facts.     

Long-run growth and volatility: which source really matters?

The aim of the article is to analyse the relationship between long-run growth and business cycle volatility. In particular, the main purpose of this article is to identify which source of volatility is most detrimental to growth. Using cross-country data from 1970 to 2000, and several indicators of volatility (such as inflation, exchange rate, government expenditure, output and investment volatility) this article shows that although, all these measures of volatility are remarkably harmful for growth, business cycle investment volatility is the main source that hampers long-run growth. This relation is robust to different measures of business cycle, and to different sub-samples of countries.     

Measuring the Chinese business cycle

This article documents the business cycle characteristics of the Chinese economy by adopting both nonparametric and parametric methodologies. The two approaches are applied to relevant macroeconomics indicators – Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Industrial Production (IP) indices – aiming to investigate the growth cycle (deviation cycle). We provide a clear chronology of the Chinese growth cycle. One significant characteristic of the Chinese growth cycle is the relatively direct influence of government policies. However, recently these policy effects have become less significant when compared to global economic influences. Our study provides an enhanced understanding of the properties of business cycle dating algorithms and as such contributes to future Chinese business cycle research.     

Fiscal policy,government size and EMU business cycle synchronization

We provide new evidence on the effects of fiscal policy and government size on pairwise business cycle synchronization in EMU. A novel time-varying framework is employed to estimate business cycle synchronization and subsequently a panel approach is used to establish the role of fiscal variables in determining the pairwise synchronization observations across time. The findings suggest similarities in the size of the public sector, yet divergence in fiscal policy stance, matter for the determination of business cycle synchronization. Hence, increased fiscal federalism in EMU will contribute to increased business cycle synchronization. Our results remain robust to different specifications and sub-periods.     

政府规模与宏观经济稳定性 ——来自新兴市场经济的证据和RBC模型的分析

本文研究的核心是政府支出和收入规模对于宏观经济稳定性的影响。对新兴市场国家的实证分析表明,政府消费规模对产出具有非稳定效应,一般性政府支出规模和产出波动率的负向关系可能并不存在。本文首先构建了包含累进型税收机制和需求扰动型政府支出的实际经济周期模型（RBC）,模型拟合出政府支出规模的非稳定效应和税收的稳定效应。当将政府支出视为生产性支出后,支出规模的稳定效应体现出来,虽然在规模进一步扩大后稳定效应会消失。     

Useful Government Spending and Macroeconomic (In)stability under Balanced-Budget Rules

It has been shown that an otherwise standard one‐sector real business cycle model may exhibit indeterminacy and sunspots under a balanced‐budget rule that consists of fixed and “wasteful” government spending and proportional income taxation. However, the economy always displays saddle‐path stability and equilibrium uniqueness if the government finances endogenous public expenditures with a constant income tax rate. In this paper, we allow for productive or utility‐generating government purchases in either of these specifications. It turns out that the previous indeterminacy results remain unchanged by the inclusion of useful government spending. By contrast, the earlier determinacy results are overturned when public expenditures generate sufficiently strong production or consumption externalities. Our analysis thus illustrates that a balanced‐budget policy recommendation which limits the government's ability to change tax rates does not necessarily stabilize the economy against belief‐driven business cycle fluctuations.     

A MODEL OF AN OPPORTUNISTIC-PARTISAN POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLE

According to political business cycle theory, separate opportunistic and partisan approaches exist. It is obvious, as seen from theoretical and empirical points of view, that politicians aim for both opportunistic as well as partisan goals. This paper presents a model of a pre‐election political business cycle that manifests an indication of competence and a post‐election political business cycle that occurs because of the uncertainty of an election's winner monetary policy. In the pre‐election period competent governments expand the economy. The post‐election cycle depends on whether a leftist or a conservative government is in power in the pre‐election period, and if they are re‐elected or not.     

FORGETFULNESS AND THE POLITICAL CYCLE*

This paper examines a mechanism that underlies both the political business cycle and the cycle in non-economic policies executed by politicians. We show that if rational voters suffer from forgetfulness (a noise in the memory). then government expenditure on the production of public good increases as elections approach. Hence, the model describes a cycle that is observed in the government expenditures of democratic societies. Unlike previous models, this model does not require that the government have information superiority over rational voters with respect to its competency. According to this model, incumbents transfer resources from the beginning of their terms of service and use them near the end of their terms. We also find that the less concave the production function, the wider the cycle.