Raising the bar of professionalism in futures studies

This article gives a behind-the-scenes look at how Joe Coates has been fulfilling an agent provocateur role for futures studies in the continuing high quality of his work and his watchdog-like role over the output of the field as a whole.     

A formal model of theory choice in science

Summary. Since the work of Thomas Kuhn, the role of social factors in the scientific enterprise has been a major concern in the philosophy and history of science. In particular, conformity effects among scientists have been used to question whether science naturally progresses over time. Using neoclassical economic reasoning, this paper develops a formal model of scientific theory choice which incorporates social factors. Our results demonstrate that the influence of social factors on scientific progress is more complex than previously thought. The patterns of theory choice predicted by the model seem consistent with historical episodes of theory change. Received: April 8, 1997; revised version: April 30, 1998     

The view from Vienna: An analysis of the renewed interest in the Mises-Hayek theory of the business cycle

We review the post-crisis literature that engages Austrian business cycle theory and we discuss what is being said that is correct, what is being said that is incorrect, and what is not being said that ought to be said. This last category is important due to the fact that the post-crisis literature engaging Austrian business cycle theory has not addressed advances in the theory made since the days of Mises and Hayek. We also highlight three key areas of contemporary economics where Austrian business cycle theory has the potential to do significant work.     

The Austrian School of Economics: A view from London

The Review of Austrian Economics - This paper explores the intellectual context of the Department of Economics at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) during the 1930s. We...     

从美国物质科学资助转变看学科均衡发展

本文介绍了美国从70年代至今对物质科学资助的转变历程,探究其资助转变背后对于学科均衡发展的考量,其中,重点讨论美国国家科学基金会(NSF)在保持美国学科均衡发展中的重要作用和美国在不同时期通过资助转变对学科发展失衡的调节.最后,文章还就美国围绕学科均衡发展进行资助调整对我国的启示进行了分析.     

Supervision of higher executives in commercial banks ——From the view of game theory

After reviewing the bad news and corruptions of the higher executives in commercial banks recent years, the article first analyzes the characteristics of all these things, and use game theory to analyzes the actions between the higher executives and administrative sections and further construes with cost and benefit utility model, and finally put up some countermeasures.     

Devising futures for universities in a multi-level structure: A methodological experiment

Universities have traditionally been key players in producing and validating new scientific knowledge, but other actors have also become major research performers. Meanwhile, the notion of research has been extended considerably, and the environment of universities is also undergoing fundamental changes. Thus, it is timely to consider alternative futures for them, to be better prepared for their new roles. A review of recent works on the future of higher education shows that the starting point in these exercises is either an existing or an abstract university. This approach has three major shortcomings: (i) the broader socio-economic systems, in which universities operate, are not addressed in these analyses, and thus neither the potential changes in these broader settings, nor their impacts on higher education can be explored; (ii) the huge diversity of higher education systems and individual universities cannot be reflected; (iii) the role of other research actors, and more importantly, the links among universities and those other research players are often disregarded.

This article offers an alternative approach, using the case of EU universities as an example, to rectify these shortcomings. A set of ‘cascading’ visions are devised to demonstrate the close links between three levels. First, alternative futures are developed for the EU by considering (i) the overall rationale of EU policies; and (ii) the standing of the EU vis-à-vis the Triad. Second, the different directions are identified, in which the European Research and Innovation Area can evolve. Third, skipping the national level, futures are built for the universities themselves, focussing on their research activities.

The modest intention of the futures presented in this paper is to demonstrate how to use the proposed new approach, and initiate meaningful and lively dialogues among stakeholders. Their diverse accumulated knowledge and experience, as well as distinct viewpoints are indispensable for building policy-relevant visions. The proposed three-level structure of futures – or ‘cascading’ visions – offers several advantages for policy-makers at various levels, the stakeholders of universities, as well as academics interested in prospective analysis of innovation systems.     

Discovery and social learning in non-priced environments: An Austrian view of social network theory

Our purpose here is to engage in a cross-disciplinary discussion between Austrian economics and social network theory. In particular, we ask what role social networks play in the extended order in regard to both individual discovery and whether social networks can be the source of widespread unintended cooperation among individuals unknown to one another. Although Austrians have examined the function that market prices play in generating social cooperation, such discussions tend to steer clear of non-priced environments, such as interaction within social networks. We seek to explore this gap. While we acknowledge that non-price information feedback mechanisms such as status and reputation lack the calculability so crucial to market coordination, we argue that they can nonetheless mimic other important qualities of market prices and generate widespread unintended social cooperation among people unknown to one another. After a general discussion, we apply these ideas to online philanthropic communities.     

基于多中心治理理论的农业科技创新

我国提出的建设社会主义新农村,实现城乡统筹发展是一项长期而艰巨的社会系统性工程,以科技创新作为重要推动的手段,将成为农业发展的根本出路。但农业科技创新也需要有新的治理模式,传统的以城市政府为中心的单中心治理模式由于其内在的制度性缺陷严重影响了科技长入经济的进程。城市、农村以及各级政府、市场和城乡社会三维框架下的多中心治理模式打破了单中心制度安排中最高权威单一性的权力格局,由多个相对独立的发展主体构成的治理网络承担起了农业科技创新区域内的管理和服务职责,并显示出一定的优势。应通过借鉴多中心治理理论中的合理内核,通过构建一种政府引导、市场运作、农民为主、社会参与的＂多元共治＂模式,来推动农业科技创新的顺利进行。     

Health care in rural America: a view from the nation's capital

While the nation's health care system has been the subject of significant attention, the needs of rural Americans and the adequacy of their health care delivery system have been largely overlooked. By considering the unique features of rural America, appropriate delivery models can be developed.     

Expiration and maturity effect: empirical evidence from the Spanish spot and futures stock index

The paper studies how the time remaining to the expiration date of derivative markets affects the volatility of the IBEX-35 index (expiration effect) and its futures market (maturity effect). The innovation of the study lies in both effects being studied together for the Spanish stock market using bivariate ECM-GARCH including dummy variables that express the time left to expiration day. The results obtained show that, during the week of the expiration day, the conditional variance of both markets increases without presenting any significant behaviour in the correlation level. During the second week, however, the conditional variance diminishes and the degree of correlation between both markets increases.     

从文化相对论视角透视民族文化

在文化人类学领域,作为与传统进化论相悖的理论模式,相对论旗帜鲜明的指出：每一个民族都有自己的文化,每一种文化又是不同社会、民族交汇融合衍生的产物。作为人类文明发展链条上不可或缺的一环,其自身的存在与发展均有着不可替代的价值和意义。     

Theories of environmental decay: A radical view

Development practitioners worldwide increasingly recognize the importance of informal institutions—such as norms of cooperation, non-discrimination, or the role of community oversight in the management of investment activities—in affecting well-being, poverty, and even economic growth. There has been little empirical analysis that tests these relationships at the international level. This is largely due to data limitations: few reliable, globally representative data sources exist that can provide a basis for cross-country comparison of social norms and practice, social trust, and community engagement. The International Institute of Social Studies now hosts a large database of social development indicators compiled from a wide range of sources in a first attempt to overcome such data constraints, at a low cost (http://www.IndSocDev.org). The Indices of Social Development are based on over 200 measures from 25 reputable data sources for the years 1990 to 2010.These measures are aggregated into six composite indices: civic activism, interpersonal safety and trust, inter-group cohesion, clubs and associations, gender equality, and inclusion of minorities. Not all data sources provide observations for indicators in each country, but together these data sources allow for comprehensive estimates of social behavior and norms of interaction across a broad range of societies, and increasingly with possibilities to track changes over time. This paper presents the database, highlights the differences, similarities, and complementarities with other measures of well-being, including those around income poverty, multidimensional poverty, and human development.     

高校思想政治理论课教学中两种视角的转换

思想政治理论教学的最终目的,不是传授一套抽象的理论化知识体系,而是提高学生的政治素养和道德行为能力。当前,在高校思想政治理论教学中,由于偏重于宏观视角下的理论教育和知识学习,缺乏微观视角下的个体认知和情感培养,结果容易导致学生政治理论知识学习与提高实际政治素养和道德行为能力的脱节。这就有必要在思想政治理论课教学中辩证运用宏观视角和微观视角,在帮助学生获得抽象政治理论知识的同时,也促进其个体情感的丰富和道德敏感性的增强,最终有助于提高学生在社会实践中的政治素养和道德行为能力。