Bridging the gap between technological possibilities and people:: Involving people in the early phases of technology development

Technology provides endless promising possibilities to support people's lives. In reality, it is not a matter of what is possible, but rather a matter of how and when technology will be integrated, accepted and adopted by people. However, conventionally within organizations the areas of technology development and market research are not closely related nor applied in the process of innovation and do not always share the same scope. In that sense there is a gap between the potential of technology and humankind's preferences.This paper discusses the current areas of technology development and market research in a business environment and proposes an integrated approach to bridge the gap between technology and people, in which people, rather than market sizes become central in the development of technology. In addition, it also describes how this approach of people-driven innovation is brought into practice through the development of early experience demonstrators. The core focus of this paper is on the processes and practices regarding innovation within an organization, rather than the adoption of innovation by users or the rate of the adoption of a marketed solution (Rogers, 1995 [E.M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations, The Free Press, New York, 1995. [1]]).     

人工智能技术产业化创新生态系统风险归因及治理体系研究

人工智能在迈向产业化过程中会逐渐形成独特的创新生态系统，但同时也会引发风险危机和治理挑战，给创新生态系统稳健发展带来极大隐患，亟需对创新生态系统的风险治理进行深入探讨。从创新生态系统理论视角出发，聚焦人工智能技术产业化创新生态系统风险治理议题，根据风险诱发属性，将其归结为内生性风险（数据风险、算法风险）和外生性风险（算法歧视、算法滥用），并围绕治理主体、治理原则和治理路径3个方面建立风险治理体系，系统分析人工智能技术产业化创新生态系统的风险治理主体构成以及形成的多层次群落结构，分析和归纳出风险治理需要遵循的根本原则，并详细揭示内生性风险和外生性风险的具体治理路径，旨在为降低我国人工智能技术产业化过程中的风险，促进创新生态系统升级提供理论指导和有益启示。     

Bridging the gap between technological possibilities and people:: Involving people in the early phases of technology development

Technology provides endless promising possibilities to support people's lives. In reality, it is not a matter of what is possible, but rather a matter of how and when technology will be integrated, accepted and adopted by people. However, conventionally within organizations the areas of technology development and market research are not closely related nor applied in the process of innovation and do not always share the same scope. In that sense there is a gap between the potential of technology and humankind's preferences.This paper discusses the current areas of technology development and market research in a business environment and proposes an integrated approach to bridge the gap between technology and people, in which people, rather than market sizes become central in the development of technology. In addition, it also describes how this approach of people-driven innovation is brought into practice through the development of early experience demonstrators. The core focus of this paper is on the processes and practices regarding innovation within an organization, rather than the adoption of innovation by users or the rate of the adoption of a marketed solution (Rogers, 1995 [E.M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations, The Free Press, New York, 1995. [1]]).     

Social contact in a pandemic: Rationality vs. heuristics

During the Covid pandemic, people weighed the benefits of social contact against the risks to their health. Ideally, people would respond based on the true infection rate; this is the rational model. However, there was high uncertainty, so perhaps people relied upon the heuristic model instead. I estimate revealed preferences for health and social contact at the county level and find evidence in favor of the heuristic model. This is important since many models of optimal policy assume that people respond to the true infection rate.     

The cost-effectiveness of celecoxib vs diclofenac in the treatment of osteoarthritis in the UK; an update to the NICE model using data from the CONDOR trial

Abstract

Objectives:

The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) health economic model for assessing the cost-effectiveness of celecoxib plus a proton pump inhibitor (PPI) compared to diclofenac plus PPI in the treatment of osteoarthritis has been updated using new adverse event (AE) risks from the CONDOR trial. In light of this new information, this study aimed to evaluate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of celecoxib plus PPI compared to diclofenac plus PPI.

Methods:

NICE developed a health economic model as part of their 2008 multiple technology assessment of treatments for osteoarthritis. The model was adapted for this study to update the relative risks of adverse events, using data from the CONDOR trial.

Results:

Using the AE data from the CLASS trial alone, celecoxib plus PPI has an ICER of £9538 per QALY when compared to diclofenac plus PPI. When the AE data from CONDOR alone is used, this ICER decreases to £4773 per QALY. Using the pooled data from both trials, celecoxib plus PPI has an ICER of £9377 per QALY compared to diclofenac plus PPI.

Discussion:

The results suggest that when new AE risks are used, celecoxib plus PPI remains a cost-effective treatment for OA when compared to diclofenac plus PPI. However, this analysis is limited by the short time horizon, and additional AEs that have not been considered.     

人工智能关键核心技术创新能力测度体系构建：基于创新生态系统视角

突破关键核心技术是“十四五”时期我国建设世界科技强国面临的重要问题。人工智能作为科技变革的核心力量,科学合理地评价其技术创新能力,对提升我国科技竞争力具有重要意义。基于创新生态系统视角,从创新主体、创新环境和系统效益3个维度对我国人工智能关键核心技术创新能力进行测度。结果发现：①我国人工智能关键核心技术创新能力逐年增强,创新主体数量、企业研发资金、算法等成为主要影响因素。其中,创新主体数量对关键核心技术创新能力的影响高于资源投入;②基础研究在关键核心技术创新过程中扮演着举足轻重的角色;③算法、数据和算力是提升人工智能关键核心技术的三大显著性影响因素,其与该技术生命周期密切相关。我国应坚持创新导向,培育多元创新主体,持续鼓励算法研究,加快开放平台建设和技术标准制定,协调技术发展与治理的关系,实现我国在关键核心技术领域的突破。     

Innovation strategy and the patenting behavior of firms

This paper investigates whether firms’ innovation strategies affect their patenting behavior, as measured by both the probability of having a patent portfolio and the number of active patents held. Three main dimensions of an innovation strategy are taken into account: the relative importance of basic research, applied research and development work in total R&D activities, the product or process orientation of innovation efforts, and the extent to which firms enter into collaborative R&D with other institutions. The major findings can be summarized as follows: (1) taking into account the various dimensions of an innovation strategy turns out to approximate the patenting behavior of firms better than the traditional Schumpeterian hypotheses related to firm size and market power; (2) there is a positive relationship between the patent portfolio of firms and an outward-oriented innovation strategy characterized by R&D partnerships with external organizations - scientific institutions and competitors in particular; (3) process-oriented innovators patent less than product-oriented innovators; (4) a stronger focus on basic and applied research is associated with a more active patenting behavior; (5) firms that perceive high barriers to innovation (internal, risk-related or external barriers) have smaller patent portfolios; (6) the perceived limitations of the patent system do not significantly influence the patenting behavior, suggesting that firms patent for other strategic reasons than merely protecting innovation rents.     

An evolutionary perspective on health innovation systems

This paper elaborates on the general properties of medical innovation processes. It begins with a critical review of different perspectives and methods of investigation used in various streams of research that have previously analysed technical change in the health sector. After profiling and discussing their characteristics, the paper proposes an evolutionary approach to change in medicine constructed around the notion of a ‘Health Innovation System’. Health innovation, it is argued, consists of complex bundles of new medical technologies and clinical services emerging from a highly distributed competence base. Health Innovation Systems are driven by the combination of (1) institutionally-bound interactions among agents (‘gateways’ of innovation) and (2) history-dependent trajectories of change (‘pathways’ of innovation) whose developments emerge from and feed back into the structure of the system through organised transfers of knowledge between research and clinical practice. After drawing examples from recent empirical work on clinical research in specific disease areas, the paper concludes by identifying implications for further research.

Infrastructures, incentives, and institutions: Fostering distributed knowledge bases for the learning society

While much attention has been devoted to information and communication technologies, a more fundamental change at the start of the new millennium is the increasing importance of innovation for economic prosperity and the emergence of a learning society. The analysis in this paper shows that innovation should be understood as a broad social and economic activity: it should transcend any specific technology, even if revolutionary, and should be tied to attitudes and behaviors oriented towards the exploitation of change by adding value.We build on the idea of inclusive learning, which entails a process of shared prosperity across the globe following local specific conditions, and argue that it is crucial to understand the features of knowledge-induced growth in rich countries, as well as the challenges and opportunities for late-industrialized and less-developed countries. To achieve these objectives, we emphasize the relative importance of infrastructures and incentives, but considering the increasingly important role of institutions towards the development of social capital. This is because learning societies will increasingly rely on “distributed knowledge bases” as a systematically coherent set of knowledge maintained across an economically and/or socially integrated set of agents and institutions.This broad concept has motivated the work behind the present paper, which builds on material presented at the 5th International Conference on Technology Policy and Innovation (ICTPI), which was held in Delft, The Netherlands, in June of 2001. Under the broad designation of “critical infrastructures,” the Conference brought together a range of experts to discuss technology, policy and management in a context much influenced by the dynamics of the process of knowledge accumulation, which drives learning societies. Thus, this special issue includes a set of extended contributions to the Delft conference, and the aim of this introductory paper is to set the stage for these contributions, with an original contribution on possible views on the role critical infrastructures play to foster innovation in the learning society.     

Health,Social Insurance and Income

Health, a form of human capital, can be defined by longevity and physical wellbeing. Social policy decisions require an understanding of the factors that contribute to the creation of health inequalities. To learn more about socioeconomic variables and health capital, this paper examines the relationship between three key variables: health, social insurance, and income, for the Swedish population. Using a randomized research survey design, data from 3,600 participants of a larger Swedish study, conducted in 2005, was analyzed. A linear model of Three Stage Least Squares was chosen to correct for simultaneous bias in the Health, Social Insurance, and Income (HSI) Model. Findings confirm the importance of socioeconomic, behavioral and environmental factors in explaining health inequalities. The results clearly show men, educated people, nonsmokers, individuals that exercise and youngsters possess higher health status than other people. The dependency on social insurance is mainly caused by poor health; a higher degree of social insurance dependency was offset by income increases due to age and higher professional level.      

Schumpeter, Schumacher and the Greening of Technology

How compatible are the ideas of neo-Schumpeterians (following in the footsteps of Schumpeter, the modern father of technology and innovation studies), and Schumacher, the modern father of sustainable development? At one level, there appears to be a mutually reinforcing and positive relationship between the application of new technology, innovation and improved environmental performance. However, other environmentalists argue that 'global Schumpeter dynamics', by promoting more rapid economic growth worldwide, will swamp any relative improvements in environmental performance and intensity. The tensions between the two perspectives are perhaps most evident in discussions about a possible shift towards a green 'techno-economic paradigm' (TEP). This paper asks whether a green TEP is possible, and what it might look like, in the light of these two perspectives. Neo-Schumpeterians note that while the current information technology TEP shows some sustainability characteristics, it is not inherently 'green'. However, they consider that the groundwork for a sixth, green TEP can be prepared through a mix of policies on research and development, regulation, transport, etc. Schumacher also saw technology as crucial to developing a sustainable world. But his view of sustainability was based on largely self-sufficient and community-led 'intermediate technology' that applied modern science and technology to local settings on an appropriate human and technical scale. What would be the 'key factor' of a green TEP, analogous to the microchip in the fifth, information and communication technology paradigm? A neo-Schumpeterian possibility is hydrogen, in the form of fuel cells. But whether a hydrogen-based society (and economy) can be called 'green', in the sense of the environmental principles espoused by Schumacher, is highly debatable. A less explored possibility - local self-sufficiency - is much more attuned to Schumacher's ideals. This would require people (and their labour) to become the new 'key factor' in a green TEP.     

Bounded socio-technical experiments as agents of systemic change: The case of a zero-energy residential building

Large-scale shifts in dominant technologies are the necessary components of a transition toward sustainability. Such shifts are difficult because, in addition to technological innovation, they require changes in the existing institutions, professional norms, belief systems and, in some cases, also lifestyles. In the languages of cognitive and policy sciences, higher order learning on a scale ranging from individuals to professional and business communities, to the society at large, is needed. Higher order learning is especially crucial in the types of innovations that depend mainly on synthesis of existing technologies and know-how to achieve radical reductions in energy and material consumption, as is the case with high performance buildings. One way to facilitate this type of learning is through experimentation with new technologies and services.Drawing on our earlier concept of a Bounded Socio-Technical Experiment, in this paper we propose a four-level conceptual framework for mapping and monitoring the learning processes taking place in a BSTE, and apply it to an empirical case study of a zero-fossil-fuel residential building in Boston. Three major conclusions are that: learning took place both on the individual and team level, that individual learning primarily (but not exclusively) involved changes in problem definitions; and that team learning consisted of participant turnover until congruence in worldviews and interpretive frames was achieved. This case study also shows that we must think of innovating in building design as both a process and a product, and that both must be considered in the future efforts to replicate this building.This study highlights that technological innovation about technology as much as about people, their perceptions, and their interactions with each other and with the material world. Sustainability will not be reached by technology alone, but by deep learning by individuals, groups, professional societies and other institutions.     

The meta-technology cost ratio: An indicator for judging the cost performance of CO2 reduction

This paper constructs an innovative ratio of meta-technology cost (MTCR) by combining the meta-frontier framework and shadow price model. This ratio is not only an indicator to account for country-specific technology heterogeneity or technology heterogeneity across a group of countries to measure improvement toward the meta-frontier. This ratio also computes the absolute value difference between the real and ideal minimum marginal abatement costs for the non-market good CO₂ to achieve specific emission reduction. An equally weighted combination of technological readiness and innovation is used to classify countries into groups. The value of the MTCR via the computation of the meta marginal abatement cost (MAC^meta) and group marginal abatement cost (MAC^group-k) allows us to identify the possible improvement of marginal abatement cost (MAC) in absolute value. That is, observation of the MTCR, along with its components the MAC^meta and MAC^group-k, provides more intuitive and comprehensive information for commanding the cost performance of CO₂ reduction than the traditional meta-technology ratio alone.     

The impact of different scenarios for intermittent bladder catheterization on health state utilities: results from an internet-based time trade-off survey

Aims: Intermittent catheterization (IC) is the gold standard for bladder management in patients with chronic urinary retention. Despite its medical benefits, IC users experience a negative impact on their quality of life (QoL). For health economics based decision making, this impact is normally measured using generic QoL measures (such as EQ-5D) that estimate a single utility score which can be used to calculate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). But these generic measures may not be sensitive to all relevant aspects of QoL affected by intermittent catheters. This study used alternative methods to estimate the health state utilities associated with different scenarios: using a multiple-use catheter, one-time-use catheter, pre-lubricated one-time-use catheter and pre-lubricated one-time-use catheter with one less urinary tract infection (UTI) per year.

Methods: Health state utilities were elicited through an internet-based time trade-off (TTO) survey in adult volunteers representing the general population in Canada and the UK. Health states were developed to represent the catheters based on the following four attributes: steps and time needed for IC process, pain and the frequency of UTIs.

Results: The survey was completed by 956 respondents. One-time-use catheters, pre-lubricated one-time-use catheters and ready-to-use catheters were preferred to multiple-use catheters. The utility gains were associated with the following features: one time use (Canada: +0.013, UK: +0.021), ready to use (all: +0.017) and one less UTI/year (all: +0.011).

Limitations: Internet-based survey responders may have valued health states differently from the rest of the population: this might be a source of bias.

Conclusion: Steps and time needed for the IC process, pain related to IC and the frequency of UTIs have a significant impact on IC related utilities. These values could be incorporated into a cost utility analysis.     

A new ICEEMDAN-based transfer entropy quantifying information flow between real estate and policy uncertainty

We quantify the dependence between real estate indices and global economic policy uncertainty for 12 top-advanced countries. Generally, real estate investments are found to be highly risky to information flow from global economic policy uncertainty. amidst policy uncertainty, we find diversification, safe haven, and hedging prospects – based on the market conditions – at short term frequencies only, for the pairs between (a) Japan and the US; (b) Singapore and the US; (c) China and Canada; (d) China and Hong Kong. Our findings underscore market efficiency (inefficiency) at mid-and long-term (short-term) frequencies. In the presence of policy uncertainty, our findings underscore the operability of ingrained market dynamics between real estate investments in the mid-and long-term horizons. It is prudent for investors to combine real estate investments with other asset classes that are less risky to (or are positive recipients of) information flow from global EPU to hedge against adverse market shocks from any asset in the portfolio based on market conditions. Practically, not only should legislations be flexible to the changing market trends in the short term, but they should also be strategically crafted to retain the fundamental market dynamics between real estate investments in the mid-and long-term economic horizons.     

The merger of populations, the incidence of marriages, and aggregate unhappiness

Let a society??s unhappiness be measured by the aggregate of the levels of relative deprivation of its members. When two societies of equal size, F and M, merge, unhappiness in the merged society is shown to be higher than the sum of the levels of unhappiness in the constituent societies when apart; merger alone increases unhappiness. But when societies F and M merge and marriages are formed such that the number of households in the merged society is equal to the number of individuals in one of the constituent societies, unhappiness in the merged society is shown to be lower than the aggregate unhappiness in the two constituent societies when apart. This result obtains regardless of which individuals from one society form households with which individuals from the other, and even when the marriages have not (or not yet) led to income gains to the married couples from increased efficiency, scale economies, and the like. While there are various psychological reasons for people to become happier when they get married as opposed to staying single, the very formation of households reduces social distress even before any other happiness-generating factors kick in.     

Sharing a common resource in a sustainable development context: The case of a wood innovation system

This case study of the Aquitaine wood filière emphasizes the need to integrate a stronger consideration of natural resources in the analysis of innovation systems. The analysis focuses on eight eco-innovation projects representing the Aquitaine wood filière, and carried out under the aegis of the Industries and Maritime Pine of the Future ‘competitiveness cluster.’ We show that dependence on the wood natural resource can configure the limits, objectives and expected performance of such innovation systems. While previous approaches have considered similar innovation systems from territorial, sectoral or technological perspectives, we argue that centering the analysis on this natural resource better enables consideration of the technological and environmental tensions and risks that are likely to destabilize the system.     

纺织企业技术创新项目风险识别研究

在中国最大的纺织工业中心之一绍兴,通过对21家纺织企业51个项目进行调查研究,识别出纺织企业技术创新项目在市场和技术特征等2个维度存在9个关键风险,其中市场维度的关键风险有：＂市场规模＂、＂市场竞争环境＂和＂客户需求变动＂等;技术特征维度的关键风险有：＂技术成熟度＂、＂引进技术或设备的价值＂、＂内部相关技术人员状况＂、＂企业技术开发速度＂、＂项目的技术复杂程度＂、以及＂对外部技术的依赖性＂等。在识别关键风险之后,提出了纺织企业技术创新风险防范的若干建议。在市场风险方面,企业要充分做好市场营销的各项工作;面对竞争者,企业要做好创新成果的知识产权申报;针对顾客需求的多变,企业可设市场情报部门主动了解市场动向和顾客需求变动;在技术风险方面,企业要系统地分析自身的技术不足,可以通过合作创新等方式有效减少创新的风险。     

突破性技术创新研究:现状与展望——基于SSCI和CSSCI期刊的文献计量分析

突破性技术创新是中国落实创新驱动、绿色发展、提升关键核心技术创新能力等多个国家战略的重要路径。本文采用文献计量方法和知识图谱工具,以2001—2018年发表于SSCI和CSSCI期刊的765篇文献为研究样本,从多个视角系统揭示国内外突破性技术创新研究的现状,并对未来研究方向进行展望。主要研究结论是:近18年国内外突破性技术创新研究发文量总体呈逐年上升趋势,国内研究与国外相比起步较晚且持续热度较低、对外合作研究较少且国际影响力不足;突破性技术创新研究遵循的理论基础主要是社会网络理论、动态资源管理理论和组织学习理论;突破性技术创新研究的热点主要集中于技术、组织、资源和财务四个方面,与市场发展问题相关的研究是薄弱环节。进一步从创新主体、创新变轨、研究层次和研究主题四个方面归纳了突破性技术创新研究热点的演化规律和存在问题。突破性技术创新的市场风险、跨国合作战略、大数据赋能和绿色导向会成为未来突破性技术创新研究的主攻方向。     

A proposed convention for measuring the state of the art of products or processes

During 1980, The Futures Group performed a study under contract to the National Science Foundation to devise a convention for describing—in quantitative terms—technological state of the art of essential any technology. In designing this convention we hope that different analysts, working independently, would be able to arrive at a similar conclusion about the state of the art of a technology under study. With such a measure at hand, it would be possible, for example, to evaluate the effectiveness of investment in R&D by evaluating the improvement in the technological state of the art of a given technology, per unit investment.The form of the equation chosen for the state-of-the-art convention was SOA = K₁(P₁/P'₁ + K₂(P₂/P'₂) ? K_n(P_n/P'_n) where SOA = state of the art, K_n = the relative weight associated with each parameter describing the technology, P_n = the value of the particular parameter useful in describing the state of the art, and P'_n = a reference value of the parameter. Various approaches to the selection of the parameters and their weights were described. Of particular interest is a statistical approach which assumes that the state of the art, over time, is an S-shaped curve. In this instance it is possible to compute the value of the weights through an iterative numerical technique.The convention was applied to two technologies: computers and antibiotics, and state-of-the-art measures were developed for each. In the case of antibiotics, selected organism/antibiotic pairs were analyzed to identify the state of the art of a particular antibiotic as applied to the control of a particular microorganism, over time.