The use of advertising activities to meet earnings benchmarks: evidence from monthly data

Using a unique database of monthly media advertising spending, we examine whether managers engage in real earnings management to meet quarterly financial reporting benchmarks. We extend prior literature by (1) separately analyzing advertising activities, allowing us to explore the possibility that managers could reduce or boost advertising to meet benchmarks; (2) analyzing actual activities as opposed to inferring them from reported expenses, which are also subject to accrual choices; (3) investigating the timing, within a quarter, of altered advertising spending; and (4) examining quarterly earnings benchmarks. We find that managers, on average, reduce advertising spending to avoid losses and earnings decreases. However, we also report that firms in the late stages of their life cycle increase advertising to meet earnings benchmarks. Finally, we find some evidence that firms increase advertising in the third month of a fiscal quarter and in the fourth quarter to beat prior year’s earnings.     

Audit committee accounting expertise,expectations management,and nonnegative earnings surprises

We investigate whether accounting expertise on audit committees curtails expectations management to avoid negative earnings surprises. Controlling for the endogenous choice of an accounting expert, we find that firms with an accounting expert serving on the audit committee exhibit: (1) less expectations management to avoid negative earnings surprises; (2) less nonnegative earnings surprises through expectations management; and (3) more nonnegative earnings surprises that are less susceptible to manipulations of both realized earnings and earnings expectations. We find, however, that the inclusion of an accounting expert on the audit committee curtails expectations management only in the interim quarters. While Brown and Pinello (2007) find a greater magnitude of downward revisions in analysts’ forecasts in the fourth quarter, they also document a lower incidence of nonnegative earnings surprises. Together, this suggests that with an accounting expert, audit committees likely view the fourth quarter downward revisions as driven more by guidance than by manipulation, thus focusing on curbing only expectations management in interim quarters.     

Discussion of “Implications of the integral approach and earnings management for alternative annual reporting periods”

The paper by Gunny, Jacob, and Jorgensen (Rev Account Stud, 2013) provides evidence on whether the earnings volatility induced by year-end adjusting entries results from the integral method of accounting or from purposeful earnings management. The authors find that the variance and negative skewness of annual fiscal-year earnings is greater than the corresponding attributes of alternative annual earnings ending in the first three quarters and interpret these findings as evidence consistent with earnings management rather than settling up annual earnings under the integral method of accounting. While it is difficult to assess the usefulness of their conclusion due to problematic assumptions inherent in the research design, Gunny et al. (2013) reinforce the importance of assessing earnings performance using rolling annual windows. Specifically, they find that the quality of earnings for the alternative annual earnings is greater than that of fiscal-year earnings, highlighting that financial statement users may benefit from using alternative annual earnings to assess current and future performance.     

Stock performance and the mispricing of accruals

I investigate the relationship between contemporaneous stock-price performance and the persistence of accrued earnings, and its impact on the accrual anomaly. I find that, in a fiscal year, accrued earnings for stocks that have performed poorly are less persistent in predicting future earnings than accrued earnings for stocks that have performed moderately. I further find that a hedge-strategy based on accruals earns greater abnormal returns following bad-news years. The results are consistent with conservative accounting causing accrued earnings to be even less persistent in bad-news years and investors failing to efficiently price this differential in persistence.     

The accrual anomaly: Australian evidence

This paper investigates whether there is evidence of the accrual anomaly ( Sloan, 1996 ) in Australia, whereby investors overestimate the impact of accruals on the persistence of earnings. While our results provide general support for the existence of the anomaly in Australia, there are a number of idiosyncrasies. First, there is evidence of Australian investors underestimating the persistence of earnings. Second, there is evidence of investors incorrectly assessing the implications of accruals and cash flows for the persistence of earnings (i.e. an accrual anomaly and a cash‐flow anomaly). Third, returns to a hedged portfolio trading strategy based on reported accruals are decreasing over the three‐year period subsequent to portfolio formation. Furthermore, they are statistically significant only in the first year. Additional analysis of the hedge portfolio results indicates that these results are primarily attributable to a limited number of firm‐year observations in the extreme positive tail of returns.     

The association between quarter length,forecast errors,and firms’ voluntary disclosures

Approximately 60 percent of adjacent fiscal quarters contain a different number of calendar days. In preliminary analyses, we find the change in quarter length is significantly associated with the changes in sales and earnings and that analysts condition on the prior quarter's results when making their forecasts. These results indicate that it is important for analysts to adjust for changes in quarter length when making forecasts. However, we find the quarterly change in days is positively associated with analysts’ sales and earnings forecasts errors, where forecast error equals the actual earnings minus the forecasted earnings. These results indicate that analysts systematically underestimate (overestimate) performance when quarter length increases (decreases). We find evidence indicating investors make similar errors as returns around earnings announcements are positively associated with the change in quarter length, but only when changes in firm performance is more sensitive to changes in quarter length. Corroborating these findings, managers are more (less) likely to discuss quarter length during conference calls when quarter length decreases (increases). These results are consistent with managers’ strategic disclosure incentives. In summary, our evidence suggests analysts and investors fail to fully take account of the quasi-mechanical effect that quarter length has on firm performance and managers strategically alter their voluntary disclosures to take advantage of these failures.     

An Analysis of the Theories and Explanations Offered for the Mispricing of Accruals and Accrual Components

Numerous accounting studies claim that investors fail to rationally price accrual‐related information and that investors are functionally fixated. This study documents the importance of performing robustness tests when testing economic or behavioral explanations for apparent accounting‐related security mispricing. We find that performing robustness tests that exclude a small number of firm‐year observations (approximately 200 firm‐year observations or about 1% of the entire sample) reveals an inverted U‐shaped relation between buy‐and‐hold abnormal returns and total accruals. An inverted U‐shaped relation is inconsistent with the functional fixation (earnings fixation) hypothesis. We conduct similar robustness tests for the abnormal accrual anomaly and the net operating assets anomaly proposed by other investigators, and also find an inverted U‐shaped relation between buy‐and‐hold abnormal returns and abnormal accruals and net operating assets. These findings are inconsistent with the explanations put forth by those investigators. Such evidence leads us to conclude that the accrual‐related anomalies are unlikely to be due to investors' inability to process accounting information, as suggested by the functional fixation hypotheses tested.     

我国上市公司盈余管理时间选择的实证研究

本文研究了我国上市公司在不同季度进行盈余管理的时间选择行为。我们首先采用可操控性应计利润来识别上市公司中期报告中的盈余管理行为,然后进一步通过考察季度间盈余反转来识别。研究结果表明,我国上市公司虽在各个季度都存在盈余管理行为,但第四季度利润中包含了比其他季度更多的盈余管理行为。特别的,巨额冲销的公司在第四季度进行盈余管理调低利润,前三季度表现欠佳而年末好转的公司在第四季度通过盈余管理调高利润。     

Analyst cash flow forecasts and pricing of accruals

This paper investigates how analyst cash flow forecasts affect investors' valuation of accounting accruals. We find that the strength of the accrual anomaly documented in Sloan (1996) is weaker for firms with analyst cash flow forecasts, after controlling for idiosyncratic risk, transaction costs and firm characteristics associated with the issuance of cash flow forecasts. We further show that this reduction in mispricing of accounting accruals is at least partially attributed to the improved ability of investors to price earnings manipulations imbedded in accruals. We investigate several non-mutually exclusive alternative explanations for this improvement in investors' ability and demonstrate that the increased investor attention and the improved accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts both contribute to the mitigation of the accrual anomaly.     

The persistence of earnings and cash flows and the role of special items: Implications for the accrual anomaly

We argue that high accruals are likely to be the outcome of rules with an income statement perspective, while low accruals are likely to be the outcome of rules with a balance sheet perspective, and that this has implications for the properties of earnings. Specifically, earnings persistence is affected both by the magnitude and sign of the accruals. Accruals improve the persistence of earnings relative to cash flows in high accrual firms, but reduce earnings persistence in low accrual firms. We show that the low persistence of earnings in low accrual firms is primarily driven by special items. We then show that special item-low accrual firms have higher future stock returns than other low accrual firms. This is consistent with investors misunderstanding the transitory nature of special items. Further analysis reveals that special item-low accrual firms have poor past performance and declines in investor recognition (analyst coverage and institutional holdings). Special items continue to explain future returns after controlling for these factors.     

利润操纵行为影响会计稳健性吗?——基于季度盈余不同汇总方法的经验证据

本文使用季度盈余的方法研究会计稳健性。以往文献主要使用会计年度(即公历年度)盈余分析我国上市公司的会计稳健性,相对无法有效地分离或控制利润操纵行为对会计稳健性的影响。本文使用不同的方法对季度盈余进行汇总,得到会计年度盈余及其他三种受利润操纵行为影响较弱的年度盈余。研究发现,我国上市公司的会计年度盈余和其他三种年度盈余都表现出了稳健性特征。这一经验证据表明,我国上市公司的报告盈余具有实质意义上的稳健性,利润操纵行为并未影响会计盈余的稳健性。     

Return windows and the value relevance of earnings

Research on the value relevance of annual earnings commonly accumulate stock returns over a 12-month period starting from the fourth month of the fiscal year, resulting in a mismatch between the return window and the earnings period (i.e. the fiscal year). By comparing this return window with alternative windows, we show that the mismatch produces a downward bias in the estimated R² from the regression of stock returns on earnings, especially for firms that announce earnings early. Our results also show that both profits and losses are more value relevant when announced earlier, supporting regulatory calls for timely disclosure.     

Can the earnings fixation hypothesis explain the accrual anomaly?

This paper provides empirical evidence on whether the earnings fixation hypothesis can explain the accrual anomaly originally documented in Sloan (1996). Our analytical model yields the prediction that, if investors fixate on reported earnings, the effectiveness of the accrual strategy will increase in the responsiveness of the stock price to earnings and the differential persistence of cash flows relative to accruals. Our empirical evidence confirms our prediction and lends support to the earnings fixation hypothesis.     

The Persistence and Pricing of the Cash Component of Earnings

Prior research shows that the cash component of earnings is more persistent than the accrual component. We decompose the cash component into: (1) the change in the cash balance, (2) issuances/distributions to debt, and (3) issuances/distributions to equity. We find that the higher persistence of the cash component is entirely due to the subcomponent related to equity. The other subcomponents have persistence levels almost identical to accruals. We investigate whether investors understand the implications of the differential persistence of the three subcomponents. Our results suggest that investors correctly price debt and equity issuances/distributions but misprice the change in the cash balance in a similar manner to accruals. Our tests enable us to empirically distinguish the “accrual” and “external financing” anomalies with results implying that the accrual anomaly subsumes the external financing anomaly. Our results also suggest that naive fixation on earnings is unlikely to be a complete explanation for the accrual anomaly. Our findings are more consistent with investors misunderstanding diminishing returns to new investments.     

Accrual anomaly and mandatory adoption of IFRS: Evidence from Germany

This study examines the effect of mandatory adoption of IFRS on the accrual anomaly in Germany. Using the setting in Germany between 2002 and 2008, we find that the accrual anomaly occurs between 2002 and 2004 (pre-IFRS period) but disappears between 2006 and 2008 (post-IFRS period). Results are consistent after extending the test period to 2010 and controlling for analysts' cash forecasts. We also find that German firms with more significant improvements in analysts following, forecast accuracy, forecast dispersion, and earnings management following mandatory adoption of IFRS in 2005 have greater decline of the accrual anomaly between 2006 and 2008. Overall, our findings suggest that IFRS adoption together with improved reporting enforcement significantly reduces the accrual anomaly in Germany.     

Is cross-listing a panacea for improving earnings quality? The case of H- and B-share firms in China

This study examines whether cross-listed Chinese H- and B-share firms exhibit higher earnings quality relative to non-cross-listed A-share firms based on seven accounting- and market-based earnings quality attributes, including accrual quality, persistence, predictability, smoothness, conservatism, timeliness and value relevance. We find that earnings quality does not differ between cross-listed and non-cross listed firms in terms of accrual quality, timeliness and value relevance, and that H- and B-share firms report earnings with lower quality in terms of persistence and predictability. We also find that the B-firms report smoother earnings, while the H-firms report more conservative earnings. The results of a battery of cross-sectional, endogeneity and sensitivity analyses either confirm our primary findings of no earnings quality difference or reveal lower earnings quality for cross-listed firms than for non-cross-listed firms. Considering that cross-listing in China is primarily driven by government decisions, our findings suggest that, without proper incentives, cross-listing is not likely to be a panacea for higher quality financial reporting.     

New findings on repurchase anomaly — The first-month effect

Prior studies find positive abnormal returns following share repurchase announcements. We examine the association between announcement month and the excess returns. We find that the average excess return is consistently higher for repurchases announced in the first month of a fiscal quarter than for those announced in the other two months. Interestingly, 1st-month and non-1st-month announcers are highly comparable in firm characteristics, pre-announcement returns, and disclosed motives. The magnitude of the first-month effect barely changes after we switch to multivariate regressions, and it remains large under firm-fixed effects. Investment strategies based on BTM, firm size, and pre-announcement return are all improved by a first-month strategy. The first-month effect extends well beyond the first year, but the market does not seem to realize it. We propose an explanation for the first-month effect based on the conjecture that managers receive firm information in an uneven manner throughout a fiscal period. This explanation is supported by our empirical tests. Additional empirical analyses provide results that fail to support several plausible alternative explanations.     

Intraday Stock Price Reactions to Interim-Quarter versus Fourth-Quarter Earnings Announcements

This study investigates intraday patterns of quarterly return-earnings relations. We find that fourth quarter announcements exhibit a lower earnings response coefficient but a more rapid adjustment to new equilibrium levels of prices and a higher R2 than interim quarter announcements. While prior short event window studies document that interim quarter earnings have greater explanatory power than fourth quarter earnings or annual earnings, our analysis indicates that the prior results may be driven by the use of two-day event window that is much wider than what it takes for the market to adjust to fourth quarter announcements.     

14-Week quarters

Many firms define their fiscal quarters as 13-week periods so that each fiscal year contains 52 weeks, which leaves out one or two day(s) a year. To compensate, one extra week is added every fifth or sixth year and, consequently, one quarter therein comprises 14 weeks. We find evidence of predictable forecast errors and stock returns in 14-week quarters, suggesting that analysts and investors do not, on average, adjust their expectations for the extra week. The ease with which 14-week quarters can be predicted, and expectations adjusted, suggests a surprising lack of effort on the part of analysts and investors.