Assessing the Effects of Antitrust Enforcement in the United States

Summary  This article reviews empirical evidence informing an assessment of cartel and merger antitrust enforcement in the United States and makes some reasonable inferences from it. It also explains why an objective assessment based on hard evidence is not possible for the critical deterrence effects of enforcement, or for any of the effects of enforcement against single-competitor exclusionary conduct. Finally, this article describes the reporting by the U.S. Department of Justice of consumer savings from its antitrust enforcement actions, and details the construction of the savings estimates from cartel and horizontal merger enforcement. The views expressed herein are not purported to represent those of the U.S. Department of Justice.     

Market Channels,Quality Incentives and Contract Harvesting: The Case of Maize,Soybean and Groundnut

The development of markets for maize, soybean and groundnut over the last ten years has been characterised by increasing commercialisation and increasing market differentiation, because of the diversity of end uses. Research conducted by the Department of Agriculture in 1987 and 1988 confirmed earlier findings that commercialisation has not led to opportunities at farm level to expand returns through quality improvement. At trader and factory levels, though, the market rewards qualities required for specific end uses. Findings clearly indicate that market development is commodity specific and that generalisation across the three crops encounters difficulties. The significance of imports was found to be different among the three crops. The role of contract harvesting varies independently of the degree of commercialisation; its extent is important in identifying who benefits from post-harvest research. The informal sector was found to be of particular importance in soybean. It was concluded that the only external intervention which would increase farm income was the introduction of specific varieties, which find market rewards from specific users. Large grain size is rewarded in groundnut, while the tahu and tempe industries both require specific soybean varieties.     

OPEC's asset demand function—An empirical study

Conclusion This paper considered a simple and standard model of the demand for U.S. securities by one of its major purchasers, OPEC. By comparing the coefficients of the interest, exchange and inflation rate variables to that of the income variable, we found that both the income and the substitution effect play an important role in determining the Middle Eastern members' demand for United States securities. For the remaining members of OPEC, the income effect seems to play a far less important role. Since the Middle Eastern members are the prevalent force in OPEC, the results for all OPEC members more closely resemble this group than the non-Middle Eastern group. The adjusted coefficients of determination clearly indicate that the economic variables incorporated into our model are able to explain variations in the purchase of U.S. securities by the oil exporting countries quite well. However, we believe that a model incorporating the financial sectors of the U.S., OECD (without U.S.) and OPEC would be more complete. We are in the process of formulating such a model and we hope to report our results in due course. Given the policy importance of these questions, such a model has a good deal of merit. The authors would like to acknowledge the assistance provided by the U.S. Treasury Department in the gathering of data, and the Experimental Statistics Department of New Mexico State University for computer time required for this study. The first author was associated with the Treasury Department when this study was launched. The cutomary disclaimer applies.     

Advance notice of real-time electricity prices

Many utilities are offering real-time pricing (RTP) to their large industrial customers. Under RTP, hourly rates change with real-time supply and demand. As compared to fixed rates, RTP shifts price risk from the utility to the customer. With such a change, it is natural to ask if there is an optimal level of advance notice of prices. This paper contains a simulation of real-time rates for industrial customers with and without advance notice of prices. Advance notice is valuable to customers who can increase elasticity of substitution. This value must be weighed against the cost to the electric utility from an increase in demand forecast error. The simulation suggests that day-ahead advance notice increases welfare for reasonable magnitudes of customer elasticity and utility forecast error.This material was prepared with the support of the U.S. Department of Energy, Grant No. DE-FG48-95R810582 A000. However, any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Department of Energy. This work was also supported in part by funds provided by the University of North Carolina, a Barclays American Research Award, and the Belk College of Business Administration. The authors are grateful for comments provided by Steve Braithwait, Laurence Kirsch, Steve Johnston, Peter Griffes, John Trapani, Mike O'Sheasy, and participants of Research Triangle Institute, Western Economic Association, and Rutgers University Center for Research in Regulated Industries Advanced Workshop in Regulation and Public Utility Economics.     

Investigating Treatment Effects of Participating Jointly in SNAP and WIC when the Treatment Is Validated Only for SNAP

The U.S. Department of Agriculture operates several food assistance programs aimed at alleviating food insecurity. We study whether participation in both participation in both SNAP and WIC alleviates food insecurity compared with participation in SNAP alone. We bound underlying causal effects by applying nonparametric treatment effect methods that allow for endogenous selection and underreported program participation when validation data are available for one program (treatment) but not the other. We estimate average treatment effects using data from the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS). FoodAPS includes administrative data to validate SNAP participation. Information on local food prices allows us to construct a food expenditure‐based monotone instrumental variable that does not require a typical instrumental variable exclusion restriction. Under relatively weak monotonicity assumptions, we identify that the impact of participating in both programs relative to SNAP alone is strictly positive, suggesting that the programs are nonredundant. This evidence can support improved design and targeting of food programs.     

The Case Against a U.S.-Arms Monopoly

The U.S. government is the dominant player in the global arms market. Existing literature emphasizes the many benefits of an international U.S. government arms monopoly including: regional and global balance, stability and security, the advancement of U.S. national interests, and domestic economic benefits from international sales. The purpose of this paper is to balance this largely one-sided treatment of the U.S. government’s dominant position in the international arms market. We discuss several negative consequences and costs associated with U.S. arms sales which call into question the net benefit of the U.S. government’s control over global arms.     

石油国内税的价格效应——基于垂直市场结构的研究

石油进口国的国内税政策不仅影响消费者价格,还通过垂直市场结构传导影响石油公司买卖价差和国际石油价格。本文发现,在生产与贸易中介环节的不同市场结构组合下,石油国内税的价格效应明显不同。如果石油公司间竞争不强,国内税价格传递弹性为负,国际价格下降而石油公司要价上升;如果石油公司间竞争很强,国内税价格传递弹性为正,国际价格和石油公司要价同向下降。结合美国、欧盟和日本的需求弹性特征,实证结果支持了本文的理论分析结果,也为美国、欧盟和日本实际国内税率与最优税率的偏离提供了证据。     

Aggregate net flows,inflows, and outflows of equity funds: The U.S. versus Japan

This paper investigates the aggregate cash inflows and outflows of domestic equity mutual funds as well as their net flows for the U.S. and Japan in an international context. The U.S. and Japan are two representative countries that have the largest and most developed fund markets in the Western world and Asia, respectively. For the purpose of analyzing dynamic relationships between market volatility, market return, and cash flow, this paper employs reduced-form and structural vector auto-regression (VAR) models. The analysis shows much different empirical findings between the U.S. and Japan, which can be explained by different culture and investment sentiments.     

European integration and economic methodology and research: Questions and speculations

This paper will discuss the role of methodology in connection with different theoretical approaches. It is shown that a multitude of paradigms is appropriate when dealing with complex developments such as integration. The question is raised whether it makes sense to discuss a special European approach. Divergent views exist, but some differences between a European and an American tradition seem to exist due to a continent-wide competition among U.S. economists and a more fragmented European scene. Closer integration and academic cooperation in Europe could result in a more unified research environment resembling the U.S. picture. However, the role of language differences must not be overlooked and can contribute to a continuing diversification.Distinguished Address presented at the Forty-Seventh International Atlantic Economic Conference, Vienna, Austria, March 16–23, 1999.     

The challenge of 1992 Europe

Conclusion When the single market of Europe 1992 is in place, the EC will rank next to the U. S. in purchasing power and will represent one of the two largest markets in the world. With the realization of the proposed monetary union, the parallel will become even more striking.Economies of scale and scope will result from: decreased border controls; unified technical standards; reduced distribution and marketing costs; and standardized rules and regulations in the manufacturing and financial sectors. Firms will face many challenges and opportunities in this new market structure. Companies must realize that changes are not limited to just the economic environment but are also taking place in the political, legal, and social environments.The European business environment is experiencing an exciting time of change. Businesses must take advantage of the opportunities presented by a diverse and complex single European market, not only in the economic sense but also in a more complex socio-political one. It is indeed an exciting time of change.     

国际大宗商品期货价格与中国CPI的相关性实证研究

美国次债危机以来大宗初级商品价格持续大幅波动,引发了关于我国大宗初级商品价格上涨是否是导致我国通货膨胀原因的讨论。本文对铜、原油、大豆和糖具有国际代表性的大宗商品价格与我国居民消费价格指数(CPI)进行实证分析,利用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数等计量方法研究了我国大宗初级商品价格变化对CPI的影响。     

中美农产品市场整合及其价格传导机制研究——以大豆市场为例

本文在对中国和美国大豆价格进行格兰杰因果关系检验的基础上,运用VAR模型分析中美两国大豆市场动态的相互影响关系,并探索当面临由外部冲击所导致的上涨压力时,两个大豆市场分担上涨压力的贡献情况;之后运用VECH和TARCH模型分析中美大豆价格波动的传导机制和对称性问题。主要结论如下:首先,中美大豆市场相互影响,互为因果,但美国大豆市场对中国大豆市场的冲击要强于中国大豆市场对美国大豆市场的影响,且美国大豆市场应对外部冲击的能力要强于中国。其次,美国大豆价格的波动主要依靠上期自身波动的传导,而中国大豆价格波动更易受外部冲击的影响;美国大豆价格波动趋于收敛,而中国大豆价格波动趋于发散。再次,中美大豆市场的联合波动也主要受外部冲击影响,两个市场的整合机制较为脆弱。最后,中美大豆价格波动均体现出非对称的特征。     

United States-China two-way direct investment: Opportunities and challenges

There is surprisingly little cross investment between the U.S. and China, the two largest economies in the world. Only 1.5% of the stock of U.S. direct investment abroad was in China at end-2015. The stock of Chinese direct investment in the U.S. is also lower than would be expected given that the U.S. is the world’s largest recipient of FDI. In recent years, however, the flow of direct investment from China to the U.S. has accelerated rapidly, and if current trends persist within a short time there will be a larger stock of Chinese investment in the U.S. than of U.S. investment in China. The small amount of U.S. investment in China can be traced to two primary factors: first, poor protection of property rights, including intellectual property rights (IPR), which limits the potential benefits that U.S. firms can receive from their technology and brands; and China’s restrictions on direct investment in many sectors important to U.S. firms. Among G-20 countries, China is the most restrictive in terms of openness to direct investment. The relatively small amount of Chinese investment in the U.S. can also be traced to two factors: first, much of the initial impetus for Chinese firms to go out was to secure natural resources, while the U.S. is not a resource-rich country relative to its GDP or population; and second, the national security reviews of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. have soured many Chinese investors on the U.S. market. The two countries have agreed to negotiate a Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT). This could open the doors to large amounts of investment in both directions if it addresses key issues. For U.S. firms, access to more sectors and better protection of IPR are crucial. Chinese firms seek a less politicized environment in which to invest. In its Third Plenum decision of 2013 the Communist Party leadership indicated its intention to open more sectors to foreign investment and competition. A BIT could help lock in these necessary reforms.     

中国商品期货市场有效性的方差比率检验

随机游动模型的方差比率检验方法可以被用于检验中国商品期货市场的有效性程度。对1999-2004年间六个商品期货品种的收盘价和结算价的分阶段（1999-2001和2002-2004）检验结果表明：铜期货市场在整个样本期间都基本上达到了弱式有效,而铝、天胶、大豆／豆一、豆粕等品种在2002-2004年间的有效性却表现出一定程度的下降。但是,在2002-2004年间,小麦期货市场的有效性得到了一定程度的提高。这些实证结果表明监管当局应该汲取以往期货市场大幅震荡的教训,有针对性地继续努力改进并提高期货市场的有效性水平。     

Food Access,Program Participation,and Health: Research Using FoodAPS

This piece is an introduction to the symposium on Food Access, Program Participation, and Health: Research using FoodAPS. The symposium includes articles presented at the National Bureau of Economic Research Conference on Food Security on December 7 and 8, 2017. The research herein was supported by the Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, grant number 59‐5000‐5‐0115. The grant included funding to study the effects of various food assistance programs on outcomes, using data from the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS). We describe the programs and the FoodAPS data, and point out highlights from the articles.     

A Global Shortage of Safe Assets: A New Triffin Dilemma?

A number of researchers have claimed that the international monetary and financial system faces a Triffin dilemma in a new fiscal form. In particular, there is said to be a dilemma between satisfying the world’s demand for safe assets and maintaining the solvency of the issuer of such safe assets. On one horn of the dilemma, global deflation threatens if highly creditworthy sovereigns like the U.S. Treasury do not satisfy emerging market demand. On the other horn, a loss of creditworthiness of the issuer threatens as its government debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio rises to satisfy fast-growing global demand. This article suggests that the analogy drawn with the original Triffin dilemma is not tight since the safe asset dilemma does not have a clear cross-over point into instability. This paper casts empirical doubt on the claim that such a dilemma exists. On the demand side, emerging market central banks have actually turned to selling safe assets in the last several years, as against forecasts for an ongoing precautionary accumulation. U.S. Treasury yields have actually risen above those on generic private instruments, the opposite of the predicted widening spread of risky over safe yields. On the supply side, a substantial fraction of U.S. dollar reserve assets is invested in instruments other than U.S. Treasury securities. Reserve managers find safe assets among obligations issued by supranationals, national agencies and even large banks, which enjoy varying degrees of governmental support. Thus, demand for safe assets looks less secular than cyclical and the supply of safe dollar assets does not depend solely on U.S. fiscal deficits.     

英文文摘

Global economy＇s ＂second dip＂ and China＇s challenges
Recently, the prospects of global economic dim.Especially, since late September, the U.S. stock market evaporated over 3.4 trillionS.Global stock markets fall into a bear market. And Europe bogged down in debt crisis. This economic crisis quickly spread to all over the world. Now, fear is occupying the entire world. The world is suffering a crisis of confidence.To deal with it.     

Factor adjustment implications of a free trade agreement between the United States and Thailand

Changes in intra-industry specialization indicators are used to assess factor adjustment pressures that may be experienced by U.S. and Thai industries from a proposed U.S.–Thailand Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Many industries experienced large increases in intra-industry trade over the 2000–2008 period. Ten U.S. industries are found to be candidates for factor adjustment pressures based on past experiences. These industries account for 38% of all U.S. imports from Thailand and 4% of imports from all trading partners. Results also show that nine Thai industries face possible adjustment pressures. These industries account for 9% of Thai imports from the United States. An FTA should result in a larger increase in U.S. exports to Thailand than U.S. imports from Thailand because Thai exporters face much lower tariffs in the U.S. market than do U.S. exporters in the Thai market.     

全球经济“二次探底”与中国面临的挑战

最近这段时间，全球经济前景暗淡，特别是九月下旬以来，美围股票市场蒸发了超过3．4万亿美元，全球股市均陷入熊市之中，而整个欧洲早已经在债务危机的泥淖中不能自拔。难道刚刚过去的金融危机又要卷土重来？所谓“二次探底”是真是假？而此次金融危机又将给中国带来多大的挑战？     

市场与政府:美国实际与中国选择

市场与政府的关系到底是二元对立抑或互补平衡?西方学界内部对之一直存在较大的分歧.本文以宏观政策为主线,通过解构中美两国经济崛起的历史,探讨市场与政府的关系.研究表明,美国政府在经济重塑、危机应对等方面,都发挥了主导作用;美国在布雷顿森林体系建立之后,才真正意义上实行了贸易自由;即使是后里根时代,政府在经济发展中的作用也...