我国劳动力市场供求波动分析

我国劳动年龄人口将在“十二五”时期达到最高峰.庞大的劳动力供给将给就业造成非常大的压力,就业的结构性矛盾将进一步加剧,劳动力供求的变化趋势和结构性矛盾呈现出新的特点.本文通过分析2001年第一季度到2010年第四季度我国劳动力市场供求变化信息,结合同时期经济波动情况,分析劳动力供求的变动特征,以期为我国现阶段解决失业问题提供有益的政策建议.     

美国劳动力市场的供求结构

美国劳动力市场的供求结构黄泰岩在美国，对劳动力通常是这样界定的：年龄在１６岁及其以上的人口称为工作年龄人口，在工作年龄人口中，有一部分人口国以下原因并不进入劳动大军成为劳动力：一是需要照顾孩子的妇女；二是需要继续上学的学生；三是丧失劳动能力的残疾人；...     

广东劳动力市场结构性失衡探究

由于产业转型和产业结构升级,企业人力资源的需求改变,而教育改革却跟不上步伐,加上各种制度限制劳动力的流动,广东劳动力市场出现了结构性失衡.为缓解这种矛盾,要积极寻求增加就业和升级产业的最佳结合点,大力发展第三产业,鼓励创业和扶持中小企业,取消对劳动力流动的限制等.     

农村劳动力结构性转移的就业议价分析

分析了农村劳动力的结构性转移,认为农村劳动力向城市转移将把城市劳动力从低技术部门挤向高技术部门。通过在三方议价模型中引入技术水平,指出厂商、城市劳动力和农村劳动力在不断达到议价均衡的过程中实现了低技能到高技能的技术进步。     

刘易斯拐点、劳动力供求与产业结构升级

随着劳动力成本的快速上升,中国已出现刘易斯拐点。经验研究表明,劳动力成本上升可能伴随产业结构升级。对此,一个经典的解释是:随着劳动力成本的攀升,产业间的比较优势发生变化,从而诱发产业升级。在当代背景下,产业升级涉及产业链的不同环节,需要上下游企业相互协调与配合,绝非单一企业所能完成。基于此,本文建构了一个带中间品的两商品模型,引入了上下游厂商之间的协调这一因素,在一个更加贴近现实的背景下,说明了劳动力成本与产业升级之间的动态关系,并据此提出了政策建议。     

我国劳动力市场的供求趋势预测

"民工荒"现象并非周期性的暂时现象,而是标志着"人口红利"的逐渐消失。而目前劳动力供给与需求的结构性矛盾和劳动力市场的制度性障碍,更加速了劳动力短缺现象的到来。科学地认识劳动力供求转折点的阶段性变化至关重要,应及时做好应对措施,为新一轮的经济发展做好准备。     

缓解当前房地产供求结构性矛盾的微观金融调节

我国房地产供求呈现出以大户型和非住宅商品房为主的高端房地产供给与中小户型、商品适用房为主的中低端房地产需求之间的错位,以及高昂的房价与缺乏支付能力之间的错位的结构性矛盾.而目前,我国为解决这一问题所采取的宏观货币政策尚未取得预期的效果,其根本原因就在于缺乏与之相对应的微观金融政策.本文认为,只有将宏观货币政策与相对应的微观金融政策相结合,才能有效缓解我国房地产供求结构性矛盾.     

兵团“十一五”期间劳动力供求状况的预测分析

\"十一五\"时期是新疆生产建设兵团加快推进新型工业化、农业现代化、城镇化和市场化、壮大经济实力、调整经济结构、产业发展重点与布局的关键期,而劳动力供求问题又是影响兵团这一系列目标实现的突出问题。文章对兵团\"十一五\"时期的劳动力供求状况变迁的情况进行预测分析。比较准确地量化出兵团在目前及未来的经济增长过程中将会面临的劳动力供求矛盾问题,为政府进行人口发展战略决策和宏观经济决策提供可行性的政策建议。     

“民工荒”的成因和对策探析

“民工荒”代替“民工潮”成为一种新的经济、社会现象。“民工荒”的形成因素是多方面的,既有表象因素,又存在着深层次体制因素。消除“民工荒”,从长期来看,需要逐步消除传统的城乡分割二元结构体制,进行体制创新;从短期看,积极转变政府职能,加强宏观调控,实现产业优化升级和梯度转移,加大对民工的培训力度等。     

解决供求结构性矛盾的关键在于合理拉开需求层次

供求的结构性矛盾是目前我国房地产市场存在的突出问题,中心城区和次中心城区中高价位的商品房供求关系趋于紧张,而城市外围的中低价位商品房销售面临巨大风险,解决这种供求关系不匹配矛盾的关键在于如何合理拉开购房者的需求层次.     

论我国劳动力供需结构失衡下的产业结构转换

中国产业结构升级转换的障碍除了缺乏具有竞争力的技术创新外，最现实的问题是与产业转换相配套的关键要素-劳动力供需结构存在着严重的失衡，劳动力供给结构与劳动力需求结构发生着较大的背离。本文从产业结构与劳动力供需结构的互动关系入手，考察了我国现阶段产业结构与劳动力供需结构存在的问题。分析了产业结构与劳动力结构背离的一些主要原因，认为我国工业化模式和产业的非正常发展是其中的最重要原因。文章最后探讨了产业转换和缓解劳动力供需结构失衡的初步对策。     

Taxes and female labor supply

The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 and the Tax Reform Act of 1986 changed the U.S. income tax structure in a dramatic fashion. In particular, these two reforms reduced the marginal tax rates for married households. In this paper I investigate what part of the rise in labor force participation of married women between 1980 to 1990 (a rise of 13 percentage points) can be accounted by the changes in taxes. I build an heterogeneous agent model populated by married households. Households differ by age and educational attainment levels of their members and decide whether the second earner, the wife, should participate in the labor market. I select parameter values so that the model economy is consistent with the 1980 U.S. economy in terms of income tax structure, wages (skill premium and gender gap), marital sorting (who is married with whom), and female labor force participation. Using counterfactual experiments I find that 20–24 percent of the rise in married female labor force participation is accounted for by the changes in the income tax structure. Changes in wages account for 62–64 percent, and changes in marital sorting account for 14–16 percent of the rise in the participation rate of married women.     

Habit persistence and the long-run labor supply

Standard macroeconomic models possess the undesirable feature that people stop working in the long run. Assuming standard parameters, the neoclassical model predicts that 2% of annual productivity growth leads to a 99% decline in the labor supply after 624 years. Yet, this contradicts the fact that labor hours per capita are relatively stable, even over a long period of time. This paper shows how internal and external habit persistence each work to stabilize the long run labor supply, independent of key parameter choices.     

农民教育培训的供需分析及改善对策--基于安徽省的调查

近年来,农民教育培训工作日益受到重视并快速发展,但与农村的新变化和农民的需求相比仍存在差距。以安徽为例,通过长期实地调查,可以客观分析当前农民教育培训供需失衡及其影响因素,提出可行的发展思路和改善对策。     

Biocapacity supply and demand in Northwestern China: A spatial appraisal of sustainability

Integrating spatial analysis with the supply and demand of biocapacity is critical for the sustainable development of regional eco-economic systems. Previous studies have focused on the temporal analysis of biocapacity at broad geographical scales, but lacked the systematic spatial realization at fine scales. An improvement is proposed of this conventional methodology of the ecological footprint by incorporating land-use data derived from high-resolution remote-sensing images into the calculation of biocapacity supply at regional, provincial and county levels in Northwestern China in 2000. The spatial heterogeneity and its effect on the biocapacity supply were systematically revealed for this region. First, the biocapacity supply declined from the east (the Guanzhong Basin and the Loess Plateau) to the middle (the Qaidam Basin and the Turpan Basin), and turned to rise from the middle to the west (the northwest of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomy). Second, although the gap between biocapacity supply and demand resulted in a small ecological deficit at the regional level, a large ecological deficit was observed at the provincial and county levels, highlighting an unsustainable situation for some of the sub-regions. Importantly, a power law relationship was unveiled between the biocapacity supply and population density, suggesting that (i) the biocapacity supply as a critical indicator could reflect the intensity of human exploitation on local biophysical resources and (ii) humans tend to have a preference to inhabit those areas with high biological productivity. These results provide opportunities to enhance policy development by central and local governments as part of the long-term Great Western Development Strategy of China.     

Fertility,household structure,and parental labor supply: Evidence from China

This study examines the effects of fertility on household structure and parental labor supply in China. To solve the endogeneity problem, we use a unique survey on households with twin children and a comparison group of non-twin households. The ordinary least squares estimates show a negative correlation between fertility and parental labor supply in rural China. Using twinning as a natural experiment, we do not find evidence on the negative effects of fertility on parental labor supply. By contrast, we find that the twinning-induced increase in fertility significantly enhances the coresidence of grandparents in rural China. We suggest that the negative effects of fertility on parental labor supply are mitigated by the childcare provided by grandparents in rural China. We also find that fertility does not induce coresidence of grandparents in urban China. Our results have important implications for population and public childcare policies.     

The anatomy of the aggregate labor supply elasticity

We show that the aggregate Frisch elasticity of labor supply can greatly exceed the corresponding individual-level parameter, and we illustrate the “anatomy” of the former in terms of intensive and extensive margins. The methodology consists of using micro data from the PSID to construct a panel of individuals and an aggregate time series obtained by aggregating these individuals each year. These two data sets represent exactly the same sample at different levels of aggregation, and we use them to identify the parameters of two distinct MaCurdy-type micro and macro equations. We find a micro elasticity of about 0.1 and a much larger macro elasticity that ranges from 1.1 to 1.7. There is no conflict between the two estimates: the micro one reflects only the intensive margin while the macro one reflects, in addition, the much more volatile extensive margin. Furthermore, aggregation of only continuously employed individuals allows us to provide a reliable estimate of the intensive margin elasticity in the range 0.3–0.4. This implies an extensive margin elasticity in the range 0.8–1.4. These findings suggest that micro evidence is not a benchmark for assessing how large the Frisch elasticity of labor supply should be in a model of the aggregate economy.     

Externality in labor supply and government spending

Standard business cycle models face difficulties generating (i) government spending multipliers exceeding unity and (ii) stabilizing effects of government size. Using a simple model with externality in labor supply, we show that a sufficient degree of complementarity between aggregate and private labor supplies is key to reproducing these stylized facts.     

Income tax policy and lifetime labor supply

A progressive income tax structure provides incentives for individuals to alter their rate of work and their age of retirement. Compared to a zero tax or proportional tax equilibrium, progressive taxation induces individuals to take less leisure in the form of retirement in exchange for more leisure during the worklife, especially at high wage levels. The imposition of a special pension tax provision on top of a progressive tax structure offsets the distortion on leisure alternatives imposed by progressivity. Indeed, the pension tax deferral provision can neutralize the impact of tax progressivity on the work profile over life. The magnitude of these tax inducements in the U.S. tax structure are non-trivial and therefore are expected to alter labor supply decisions over the lifetime. The model finds empirical support using data from the Social Security Newly Entitled Beneficiaries Survey.     

股市供求关系研究

<正> 和任何商品一样,股票的价格围绕价值的波动幅度与方向仍然要取决于股市上的供给〔股票、债券等证券品种)与需求(需要购买相关证券品种的资金量)的相互关系。中国股市的成长过程也是一个供给和需求双向扩容的过程影响股市供给与需求的因素有:股市规模的扩张速度(资产证券化率的增长速度)、消除股权结构泡沫(部分国有股、法人股的流通)、新股的发行规模等。