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我国劳动年龄人口将在“十二五”时期达到最高峰.庞大的劳动力供给将给就业造成非常大的压力,就业的结构性矛盾将进一步加剧,劳动力供求的变化趋势和结构性矛盾呈现出新的特点.本文通过分析2001年第一季度到2010年第四季度我国劳动力市场供求变化信息,结合同时期经济波动情况,分析劳动力供求的变动特征,以期为我国现阶段解决失业问题提供有益的政策建议. 相似文献
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美国劳动力市场的供求结构黄泰岩在美国,对劳动力通常是这样界定的:年龄在16岁及其以上的人口称为工作年龄人口,在工作年龄人口中,有一部分人口国以下原因并不进入劳动大军成为劳动力:一是需要照顾孩子的妇女;二是需要继续上学的学生;三是丧失劳动能力的残疾人;... 相似文献
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由于产业转型和产业结构升级,企业人力资源的需求改变,而教育改革却跟不上步伐,加上各种制度限制劳动力的流动,广东劳动力市场出现了结构性失衡.为缓解这种矛盾,要积极寻求增加就业和升级产业的最佳结合点,大力发展第三产业,鼓励创业和扶持中小企业,取消对劳动力流动的限制等. 相似文献
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我国劳动力市场的供求趋势预测 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
"民工荒"现象并非周期性的暂时现象,而是标志着"人口红利"的逐渐消失。而目前劳动力供给与需求的结构性矛盾和劳动力市场的制度性障碍,更加速了劳动力短缺现象的到来。科学地认识劳动力供求转折点的阶段性变化至关重要,应及时做好应对措施,为新一轮的经济发展做好准备。 相似文献
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我国房地产供求呈现出以大户型和非住宅商品房为主的高端房地产供给与中小户型、商品适用房为主的中低端房地产需求之间的错位,以及高昂的房价与缺乏支付能力之间的错位的结构性矛盾.而目前,我国为解决这一问题所采取的宏观货币政策尚未取得预期的效果,其根本原因就在于缺乏与之相对应的微观金融政策.本文认为,只有将宏观货币政策与相对应的微观金融政策相结合,才能有效缓解我国房地产供求结构性矛盾. 相似文献
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兵团“十一五”期间劳动力供求状况的预测分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
"十一五"时期是新疆生产建设兵团加快推进新型工业化、农业现代化、城镇化和市场化、壮大经济实力、调整经济结构、产业发展重点与布局的关键期,而劳动力供求问题又是影响兵团这一系列目标实现的突出问题。文章对兵团"十一五"时期的劳动力供求状况变迁的情况进行预测分析。比较准确地量化出兵团在目前及未来的经济增长过程中将会面临的劳动力供求矛盾问题,为政府进行人口发展战略决策和宏观经济决策提供可行性的政策建议。 相似文献
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“民工荒”的成因和对策探析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
“民工荒”代替“民工潮”成为一种新的经济、社会现象。“民工荒”的形成因素是多方面的,既有表象因素,又存在着深层次体制因素。消除“民工荒”,从长期来看,需要逐步消除传统的城乡分割二元结构体制,进行体制创新;从短期看,积极转变政府职能,加强宏观调控,实现产业优化升级和梯度转移,加大对民工的培训力度等。 相似文献
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供求的结构性矛盾是目前我国房地产市场存在的突出问题,中心城区和次中心城区中高价位的商品房供求关系趋于紧张,而城市外围的中低价位商品房销售面临巨大风险,解决这种供求关系不匹配矛盾的关键在于如何合理拉开购房者的需求层次. 相似文献
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论我国劳动力供需结构失衡下的产业结构转换 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
中国产业结构升级转换的障碍除了缺乏具有竞争力的技术创新外,最现实的问题是与产业转换相配套的关键要素-劳动力供需结构存在着严重的失衡,劳动力供给结构与劳动力需求结构发生着较大的背离。本文从产业结构与劳动力供需结构的互动关系入手,考察了我国现阶段产业结构与劳动力供需结构存在的问题。分析了产业结构与劳动力结构背离的一些主要原因,认为我国工业化模式和产业的非正常发展是其中的最重要原因。文章最后探讨了产业转换和缓解劳动力供需结构失衡的初步对策。 相似文献
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《Economics Letters》1986,21(4):379-383
A disequilibrium model of the U.S. labor market in which the unemployment insurance system plays a key role is estimated. An increase in the level of real unemployment benefits markedly lowers employment and raises real wages. 相似文献
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Yuan Cao 《Applied economics》2019,51(9):889-910
This study provides new evidence on on the causal effect of fertility on maternal labor supply in rural China, using the fact that in some parts of rural China couples are allowed to have a second child if their firstborn is female. Estimates show that a second child reduces maternal labor force participation by 4.6 percentage points, labor supply intensity (hours worked conditional on employment) by 1.4 h per week and monthly income by 54.5 Chinese Yuan (18.7 percent). Further, the labor supply of mothers whose husbands are rural-to-urban migrants is the most sensitive to having an additional child, likely because they have more difficulty balancing farming and childcare. Conversely, labor supply is not reduced by fertility for mothers living in three-generation families, most likely because grandparents can provide both time and money to help with childcare. 相似文献
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Using the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) database of the employment of married women in 2006, this paper analyzed the factors that influenced the labor force participation of female workers in urban and rural areas, from the perspectives of individuals and families. The Probit Regression suggested that factors associated with families were of more importance than individual factors and there existed large differences between urban and rural areas. For women from urban areas, individual factors played a more important role than those from rural areas, while family factors were more significant for those who came from rural areas. Thus labor market policies should consider the structural difference between urban and rural women. 相似文献
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Remzi Kaygusuz 《Review of Economic Dynamics》2010,13(4):725-741
The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 and the Tax Reform Act of 1986 changed the U.S. income tax structure in a dramatic fashion. In particular, these two reforms reduced the marginal tax rates for married households. In this paper I investigate what part of the rise in labor force participation of married women between 1980 to 1990 (a rise of 13 percentage points) can be accounted by the changes in taxes. I build an heterogeneous agent model populated by married households. Households differ by age and educational attainment levels of their members and decide whether the second earner, the wife, should participate in the labor market. I select parameter values so that the model economy is consistent with the 1980 U.S. economy in terms of income tax structure, wages (skill premium and gender gap), marital sorting (who is married with whom), and female labor force participation. Using counterfactual experiments I find that 20–24 percent of the rise in married female labor force participation is accounted for by the changes in the income tax structure. Changes in wages account for 62–64 percent, and changes in marital sorting account for 14–16 percent of the rise in the participation rate of married women. 相似文献
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James T. Fu-Kwun Shin-Lian Wan-Ting Yen-Tai 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2006,73(4):422-435
A methodology for the analysis of the supply and demand in the Thin-Film Transitor (TFT)-liquid crystal display (LCD) market in 2004 is proposed. The quarterly history supply and demand data are collected from 63 factories in Taiwan, Korea, Japan, and China during 2000–2003. This method takes into the account supply, demand, and differences between supply/demand. For the supply, a heuristic approach is used to forecast the future supply. For the demand, a transfer function model is used to forecast the future demand. The difference analysis of the supply and demand shows that it can predict whether or not there appears to be a shortage in the market of 2004. In addition, three important managerial implications such as pricing strategy, product-mix decision, and customer's priority are discussed in this paper. 相似文献
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In this paper we shed some light on how restrictions in financial markets, the so-called liquidity constraints, might act in affecting labour supply decisions of Italian workers. One way to neutralize the existence of binding liquidity constraints is simply by supplying additional labor, instead of reducing consumption. We estimate whether resorting to additional labor supply as a smoothing consumption device is at work by using the Italian Survey of Households Income and Wealth (SHIW). The longitudinal dimension of the SHIW dataset allows us to control for individual unobserved heterogeneity. We also use an IV strategy to address the endogeneity of our measure for credit constraints in labor supply equations due to time varying factors.Our results show that liquidity constraints increase the intensity in the supply of men׳s labor. Constrained men work, on average, 4 hours more than their unconstrained counterpart. Self-employed workers turn out to be more sensitive to binding liquidity constraints, possibly because they are more flexible in adjusting the intensity of their labor supply. 相似文献
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Standard macroeconomic models possess the undesirable feature that people stop working in the long run. Assuming standard parameters, the neoclassical model predicts that 2% of annual productivity growth leads to a 99% decline in the labor supply after 624 years. Yet, this contradicts the fact that labor hours per capita are relatively stable, even over a long period of time. This paper shows how internal and external habit persistence each work to stabilize the long run labor supply, independent of key parameter choices. 相似文献
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近年来,农民教育培训工作日益受到重视并快速发展,但与农村的新变化和农民的需求相比仍存在差距。以安徽为例,通过长期实地调查,可以客观分析当前农民教育培训供需失衡及其影响因素,提出可行的发展思路和改善对策。 相似文献
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We estimate a model of intertemporal male labor supply behavior which explicitly accounts for the effect of income taxation and the transfer system. Moreover, we model the demand-side driven rationing risk that prevents agents from choosing the optimal labor supply state. Our results show that elasticities derived in an unconstrained pure choice model are significantly higher compared to a model with involuntary unemployment. This holds true for short-run and long-run labor supply elasticities. 相似文献