Foreign Equity Trading and Average Stock‐return Volatility

We examine whether there is a relationship between foreign equity trading and average total volatility, measured as the value‐weighted average of stock‐return variance in the Istanbul Stock Exchange. We employ foreign equity purchase and sale data to track changes in foreign equity trading, which not only enable us to capture effective foreign investor participation but also to observe the potential asymmetric effects of incoming and outgoing funds on the average total volatility. Consistent with the implications of the asymmetric information hypothesis, we find that net equity flow is positively associated with average total volatility. Furthermore, we show that net equity flow affects the average total volatility through the local and idiosyncratic volatilities, suggesting that foreign investors engage in the production of firm specific and market wide information.     

The Business Cycle and Profitability of Trading Strategies

Recent studies show that investor participation in the stock market rises during economic expansion and drops in economic recession. When investor participation is high, investors’ cognitive and behavioral biases are likely to have a strong influence on stock prices. We consider four trading strategies that are based on well-known market anomalies and examine their profitability under different economic conditions. For all four strategies, the portfolios that are formed in the months when the economy is expanding obtain significant profits, whereas the portfolios formed in economic recession months are not profitable. This finding is robust to different ways of classifying recession months.     

The Pricing of Catastrophe Equity Put Options with Default Risk

In this paper, we present a pricing model for catastrophe equity put options with default risk by assuming that the default of the option issuer may occur at any time prior to maturity of the option. Catastrophic events are assumed to occur according to a doubly stochastic Poisson process, and stock price is affected by the catastrophe losses, which follow the compound doubly stochastic Poisson process. As for default risk, we adopt typical structural approaches, and we also allow the correlation between the underlying stock and the assets of the option issuer. Under this framework, we derive a pricing formula for catastrophe equity put options with default risk. Finally, numerical analysis is presented to illustrate effects of default risk on catastrophe equity put option prices.     

实物期权评价方法及波动率全周期估算研究

在不确定性投资中,实物期权评价方法充分考虑了项目投资中的管理灵活性、不确定性和不可逆性,因而更能准确地评估项目投资的价值。项目建设期的现金流出和经营期可能出现的亏损使得现行波动率估算方法难以应用于项目评价中。在分析波动率性质的基础上,以净现值法为基础,应用蒙特卡洛原理,提出了在现金流随机变动条件下实物期权模型中基于全周期的波动率参数估算方法,该方法适用于项目投资且易于操作。     

融资融券对我国股市波动性影响的实证研究

本文选取的样本区间为2008年1月2日到2014年12月31日,通过GARCH模型和TARCH模型研究融资融券对我国股市波动性的影响.研究表明,融资融券机制的引入能降低股市的非对称波动性,但融资融券余额的增减会加大股市的波动性.     

基于高频数据的波动率与成交量动态关系研究

传统的价量分析都是从低频数据来分析股票市场上波动率、收益率与成交量之间的关系。基于高频数据,利用分位数回归并结合高频数据的波动率估计方法对高频数据中所呈现出的价量关系进行研究,并分析了股票价格跳跃过程所带来的跳跃方差与成交量之间的关系。实证分析表明：指数及个股收益率与成交量之间的关系并不显著;波动率、跳跃与成交量之间存在着显著相关的关系,个股的波动率与成交量之间的关系显著并呈现出正向相关关系,而指数的波动率与成交量之间呈现出一种负向关系,并且关系比较微弱;个股的成交量的改变会导致股票价格的跳跃方差的减小,而指数的成交量的改变则使得指数的跳跃方差增大。     

存贷利差对我国商业银行盈利能力影响的实证分析

存贷利差是影响商业银行盈利能力的重要因素之一。本文首先回顾了我国的利率市场化进程,分析了我国商业银行的盈利能力现状,然后利用16家A股上市银行的数据进行存贷利差对商业银行盈利能力影响的实证分析。结果表明,存贷利差与商业银行盈利能力存在显著的正相关关系。为了抵御存贷利差收窄对银行盈利能力之不利影响,本文建议持续推进利率风险管理,增强传统资产负债业务的盈利能力,大力发展中间业务,加强对商业银行资金投向的监管。     

The Dynamic Relationship Between Investments in Brand Equity and Firm Profitability: Evidence Using Trademark Registrations

Abstract

Most marketing practitioners and scholars agree that marketing assets such as brand equity significantly contribute to a firm’s financial performance. In this paper, we model brand equity as an unobservable stock that results from up to 30 years of past brand-related investment flows. Using firm-specific trademarks as investment proxies, our results show a significant long-run impact on financial performance. The dynamic profile of brand-related investments has an inverted-U shape that reaches its peak after 11 years. On average, it takes four years before brand-related investments show a positive return, and investments older than 19 years show no significant impact. For the median trademarking firm, brand equity contributes €265,000 to annual profits.     

基于股东权益最大化的物流基地项目建设和经营策略选择

物流业作为生产型服务业的支柱之一,被公认是促进经济发展的新的增长点。其中,物流基地建设又被看做是推动区域经济和城市物流发展的重要途径。本文以股份制物流基地为研究对象,从项目建设主体和经营主体的选择入手,探索物流基地建设和发展的策略问题及实现物流基地股东权益最大化的途径。     

跨商品期货价差套利——以大连商品交易所豆类产品为例

在简要分析大豆提油套利的理论基础后,基于2006年到2012年6月间的大样本日度交易数据对大豆、豆油、豆粕三者间的数量关系进行了计量实证,实证结果证明提油套利收益率和成功率较高,而反向提油套利则大部分不能成功。     

Optimal No‐Arbitrage Bounds on S&P 500 Index Options and the Volatility Smile

This article shows that the volatility smile is not necessarily inconsistent with the Black–Scholes analysis. Specifically, when transaction costs are present, the absence of arbitrage opportunities does not dictate that there exists a unique price for an option. Rather, there exists a range of prices within which the option's price may fall and still be consistent with the Black–Scholes arbitrage pricing argument. This article uses a linear program (LP) cast in a binomial framework to determine the smallest possible range of prices for Standard & Poor's 500 Index options that are consistent with no arbitrage in the presence of transaction costs. The LP method employs dynamic trading in the underlying and risk‐free assets as well as fixed positions in other options that trade on the same underlying security. One‐way transaction‐cost levels on the index, inclusive of the bid–ask spread, would have to be below six basis points for deviations from Black–Scholes pricing to present an arbitrage opportunity. Monte Carlo simulations are employed to assess the hedging error induced with a 12‐period binomial model to approximate a continuous‐time geometric Brownian motion. Once the risk caused by the hedging error is accounted for, transaction costs have to be well below three basis points for the arbitrage opportunity to be profitable two times out of five. This analysis indicates that market prices that deviate from those given by a constant‐volatility option model, such as the Black–Scholes model, can be consistent with the absence of arbitrage in the presence of transaction costs. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:1151–1179, 2001     

Preferential Rules of Origin and the Multilateral Trading System: Pro-Development Policy Options

With the proliferation of regional trade agreements since the late 1980s and early 1990s, preferential rules of origin have also proliferated. The discussion on these rules has gradually shifted from a purely technical discussion (“how to establish the origin of goods not wholly obtained in one country”, and hence, “how to apply trade preferences in these cases”) to a wider discussion also touching upon the transaction costs caused by having a “spaghetti bowl” of rules, and the actual or presumed neo-protectionist use that is being made of them. In the context of the discussion on possible policy options for developing countries simultaneously involved in (or negotiating) regional and multilateral trade agreements, this article will first give a brief overview of the findings of the recent empirical literature. Some indications are then presented as to what such policy options could look like. This paper was first presented at the Ad-hoc Expert Group Meeting on The Development Interface between the Multilateral Trading System and Regional Trade Agreements, Session III Regulatory Provisions in RTAs, Palais des Nations, Geneva, 15-16 March 2007. It is partly based on P. De Lombaerde, L. J. Garay : Preferential Rules of Origin: EU and NAFTA Regulatory Models and the WTO, in: The Journal of World Investment & Trade, Vol. 6, No. 6, 2005, pp. 953-994; and L. J. Garay, P. De Lombaerde: Preferential Rules of Origin: Models and Levels of Rulemaking, in: S. Woolcock (ed.): Trade and Investment Rulemaking: The Role of Regional and Bilateral Agreements, Tokyo 2006, UNU Press, pp. 78-106.