House prices,collateral constraint,and the asymmetric effect on consumption

This paper investigates the asymmetric effect of house prices on various categories of consumption under constrained and unconstrained regimes. We first present a simple theoretical model based on Iacoviello (2004) and Luengo-Prado (2006), explicitly considering the dual role of housing and linking credit constraints to the behavior of consumption in a pair of aggregate Euler equations. We then estimate a threshold regression model and find that LC-PIH holds only under the unconstrained regime. More importantly, durable consumption exhibit a very strong asymmetric effect in response to changes in house prices, while other categories of consumption do not exhibit this asymmetry.     

当前的宏观经济走势和未来中国经济发展前景

常常说土地是财富之母,作为土地系统的代表自然很关心当前的经济形势,我想借这个机会,谈三个问题.第一,经济发展的基本背景,这有助于大家加深对今后中国经济发展的认识;第二,当前中国经济发展的态势;第三,未来中国经济发展的前景.     

House prices and rents in Spain: Does the discount factor matter?

We estimate alternative price-to-rent ratios in the Spanish housing market by considering different stochastic discount factors in present value models similar to those used in the financial literature but where the higher rigidity that characterises this market is taken into account. We identify three robust across-model regularities: (i) the increase in the price-to-rent ratio since the late 1990s helped at first to restore equilibrium, (ii) further increases in house prices raised the ratio between 24% and 32% above equilibrium by 2004, although (iii) at that time the ratio was only around 2% above its short-term adjustment path towards a (new) long-run equilibrium.     

通过供求机制影响房价的因素研究

经济学中,需求和供给的许多影响因素都是密切相关,互相作用的。房地产市场的供给和需求共同决定了房价,这表明了影响需求和供给的因素也都是间接的通过供需影响房价。本文研究了几种主要的通过供求机制影响房价的因素,分析了其影响机制和影响程度。     

Impact of electronic road pricing on real estate prices in Singapore

Since 1998, Singapore has had an Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) system set up with a network of toll gantries to tax vehicles entering designated areas in the city center during peak hours. Using the congestion rate hike with effect from November 1, 2010 as an exogenous shock, we test the effects of the ERP rate hike on retail, office and residential real estate prices. The results show that the November 2010 congestion toll rate increases cause a 19% drop in retail real estate prices within the cordon ERP areas relative to retail real estate prices outside the cordon ERP areas. The results are statistically and economically significant. However, the toll rate hike has no significant impact private office and residential real estate within cordoned ERP areas. The robustness and falsification tests could not reject the negative effects associated with the toll rate hike on retail real estate prices.     

A study on the wealth effects of irish takeovers and mergers

This paper presents the findings of an empirical study on the share-price effects of takeovers and mergers on the Dublin Stock Exchange. The population under study consists of all acquisitions during the period 1965–83, and it is limited to those instances in which both partners were quoted and traded on the exchange. The Market Model has been adapted to take account of market inefficiencies. Any findings are evaluated in the light of other reported research.     

Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit

The financial crisis has brought the interaction between housing prices and household borrowing into the limelight of the economic policy debate. This paper examines the nexus of housing prices and credit in Norway within a structural vector equilibrium correction model (SVECM) over the period 1986q2–2008q4. The results establish a two way interaction in the long-run, so that higher housing prices lead to a credit expansion, which in turn puts an upward pressure on prices. Interest rates influence housing prices indirectly through the credit channel. Furthermore, households’ expectations about the future development of their own income as well as in the Norwegian economy have a significant impact on housing price growth. Dynamic simulations show how shocks are propagated and amplified. When we augment the model to include the supply side of the housing market, these effects are dampened.     

Sarbanes-Oxley wealth effects: focus on technology firms

We evaluate the shareholder wealth effects surrounding the passage of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX). While other studies have also measured wealth effects, none has separately examined technology firms. We discuss the unique characteristics of technology firms and assess whether technology firms are differentially affected. Our results show the portfolio of 218 technology firms experienced significantly more favorable wealth effects than the portfolio of 940 non-technology firms in response to events indicating stringent reform legislation. The cross-sectional analyses suggest that board independence, growth expectations, and R&D expenditures are influential factors in the differential stock price response of technology firms. Across our full sample of 1,158 firms, we find that wealth effects are less favorable for firms that likely will incur high compliance costs and more favorable for firms that are expected to benefit from improved governance and improved transparency.     

Monetary effects on nominal oil prices

The paper presents a theory of nominal asset prices for competitively owned oil. Focusing on monetary effects, with flexible oil prices the US dollar oil price should follow the aggregate US price level. But with rigid nominal oil prices, the nominal oil price jumps proportionally to nominal interest rate increases. We find evidence for structural breaks in the nominal oil price that are used to illustrate the theory of oil price jumps. The evidence also indicates strong Granger causality of the oil price by US inflation as is consistent with the theory.     

Homeownership, wealth accumulation and income status

This paper examines the extent to which homeownership had an independent effect on the ability of low- and moderate-income (LMI) households to accumulate wealth during the mid-to-late 1990s. Using household data from the PSID, we generate a panel of households whose homeownership we observe over a 15 year period and whose wealth accumulation we observe at three points in time: 1994, 1999 and 2001. We investigate the extent to which homeownership has an independent impact on the wealth accumulation of LMI households, controlling for a host of other variables and unobserved heterogeneity. Accounting for the skewed nature of the wealth distribution, we find that each additional year of homeownership increases total net wealth by $13.7 K on average for the full sample. Interacting income status with years of homeownership indicates that the impact of homeownership varies by income status, with each additional year of homeownership being associated with $15 K more in wealth holdings for high-income households and roughly $6 to 10 K more in wealth holdings for LMI households.     

摩根家族的衰落 财富、权力和名声能否兼得?

杰克·摩根没有父亲和祖父的性格刚毅,但受到英国绅士传统的影响,显得不卑不亢,日后照样主持摩根财团大局,使得“摩根”这个品牌至今熠熠生辉。     

The effects of economic news on commodity prices

We assess how commodity prices respond to macroeconomic news and show that commodities have been relatively insensitive to such news over daily frequencies between 1997 and 2009 compared to other financial assets and major exchange rates. Where commodity prices are influenced by news, there is a pro-cyclical bias and these sensitivities have risen as commodities have become increasingly financialized. However, models based on news still do a relatively poor job of forecasting commodity prices at daily frequencies. We also find some asymmetries in how commodity prices respond to news, most notably for gold, which alone among commodities acts as a safe-haven when “bad” economic news emerges.     

Urban structure,gas prices,and the demand for transportation

This paper investigates how the characteristics of demand for space help determine the response of aggregate automobile mileage to increased gasoline prices. A typical monocentric model is considered in which household heads commute to work at the center of city. Precise results are derived under the assumption that all households have the same income and that transportation is a small item in the typical budget. Finally, a numerical projection is made based on estimates of the relevant parameters.     

Founder attachment style and its effects on socioemotional wealth objectives and HR system design

In this paper, we draw on attachment theory from the family science literature to develop theoretical propositions that explain variability in one of the most distinguishing features of family firms – its socioemotional wealth (SEW) preservation objectives. Three different attachment styles of founders (avoidant, anxious, secure) are argued to have an imprinting effect on the family firm regarding the relative emphasis that is placed on the preservation of a particular SEW objective (maintenance of control, dynastic perpetuation, reputation) and in turn the HR strategy it chooses to enact (compliance, commitment, collaborative). Avoidant founders are shown to emphasize control as an SEW goal leading them to choose a compliance HR strategy, while anxious founders emphasize dynastic perpetuation that fits well with a commitment HR strategy. Lastly, secure founders are shown to place a priority on reputation, which a collaborative HR strategy helps to reinforce. Contingencies for these relationships are discussed as well as the implications of our model for theory, practice and research.     

Commodity prices and the CPI: Cointegration, information, and signal extraction

This paper provides theoretical underpinnings for the commodity price/aggregate price relationship, discusses the conditions under which commodity prices are useful information variables for monetary policy, and provides empirical results which suggest why commodity prices have not been very useful for forecasting.     

The effects of potential land development on agricultural land prices

We conduct a national-scale analysis of the determinants of agricultural land values. The theoretical basis for the study is a spatial city model with stochastic returns to future land development. The empirical model of agricultural land prices is estimated with a cross-section on approximately three thousand counties in the contiguous US. The results provide evidence that option values associated with irreversible and uncertain land development are capitalized into current farmland values. For each county, we decompose the current agricultural land value into components measuring rents from agricultural production and rents from future land development.     

The spillover effects of infill developments on local housing prices

This paper examines the spillover effects of infill developments, which involve developing vacant or under-used parcels within existing urban areas that are largely developed, on local housing prices. Employing a difference-in-difference specification on a sample of 275 new developments and 55,887 sale transactions of houses in Singapore, we find that infill developments have a positive and persistent impact on local housing prices. The contagion effect is larger for infill developments that are built on teardown sites. The spillover effect can also be traced to the overpricing of new homes by developers. Overall, the evidence indicates that developers act as price leaders and contribute significantly to price discovery in the local housing market.     

On the distributional effects of trade policy: Dynamics of household saving and asset prices

This paper studies the effect of trade liberalization on inequality. We develop a theoretical framework that generates economy-wide distributions of wealth and income for different levels of trade protection. The model unambiguously determines the effect of liberalization on inequality; and rationalizes why larger inequality can be the outcome of a welfare enhancing policy, as households reduce their buffer savings when liberalization lowers the price of food. The framework reconciles the increase in inequality, the fall in the value of land, and farmers’ opposition to freer trade, that have featured in different liberalization episodes. We also present empirical support for the model’s predictions.