Cost savings of using a marketable permit system for regulating light-duty vehicle emissions

In the USA, each individual vehicle is required to meet uniform per-mile emission standards. The uniform standard system does not allow vehicle manufacturers flexibility in achieving overall emission reduction goals for motor vehicles. The system provides manufacturers with little or no incentive to control vehicle emissions beyond what is required. In this paper, an incentive-based marketable permit system is proposed to replace the uniform standard system. Under the marketable permit system, vehicle manufacturers are required to meet corporate average emission standards; they are allowed to buy or sell vehicle emission reduction credits among themselves to meet corporate average standards; and they are allowed to bank vehicle emission reduction credits that are accumulated in earlier years and to use the credits for meeting average standards in later years. It is estimated in this study that relative to the current uniform standard system, the marketable permit system can reduce vehicle emission control costs by $150 to $400 million per year in California, or 13–30% of the costs currently spent on vehicle emission control.     

Modeling different penetration rates of eco-driving in urban areas: Impacts on traffic flow and emissions

Climate change and air quality are two main environmental challenges in metropolitan areas. As road transportation is one of the main contributors, public administrations are facing these problems with a number of complementary policy measures: shift to cleaner modes, new fuels and vehicle technologies, demand management, and the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) applied to transportation. Eco-driving is one of the measures that present large fuel savings at individual level. Although these savings are well documented in the literature, few studies focus on how eco-drivers driving patterns affect the surrounding vehicles and the traffic in general, and more particularly what would be the impact when the number of eco-drivers grows. Using a traffic microsimulation tool, four models in urban context have been built, corresponding to the different types of urban roads. Both the base-case and the parameters setting to simulate eco-driving have been calibrated with real data collected through floating vehicles performing the trips with normal and eco behaviors. In total, 72 scenarios were simulated, varying the type of road, traffic demand, and the percentage of eco-drivers. Then, the CO₂ and NO_x emissions have been estimated through a microscopic emission model. The results show that in scenarios with low or medium demand levels and increasing number of eco-drivers, the effects are positive in terms of emissions. On the other side, with high percentage of eco-drivers and high traffic demand, the emissions rise. Higher headways and smooth acceleration and decelerations increase congestion, producing higher emissions globally.     

The effects of area-wide road speed and curvature on traffic casualties in England

Transport provides a range of benefits to society in terms of mobility, access and economic growth. There are however negative impacts of transport, not least in terms of environmental degradation, damage to property, traffic accidents and loss of life. This paper focuses on road traffic accidents, the reduction of which is an important aim of transport policy world wide. The primary objective of this paper is to develop a series of relationships using spatially disaggregated area-level cross-sectional data between different traffic casualties, road traffic speed and road curvature by controlling for other contributing factors associated with area characteristics. The spatial units of the analysis are the 8019 census wards in England. Ward-level casualty data are disaggregated by severity of the casualty (such as fatalities, serious injuries and slight injuries) and by the severity of the casualty related to various road users.The results suggest that increased average speed within a ward is positively associated with total fatalities and serious injuries; and road curvature is found to be negatively associated with road accidents.     

北京丰台站客运枢纽区域交通改善策略研究

在对国内外研究现状分析的基础上,立足于北京丰台站交通现状分析与评价,针对现状问题和路网约束条件,进行交通策略设计,提出交通改善方案和措施,并运用交通仿真软件对方案进行仿真评价和敏感性分析,给出推荐方案。同时提出相应的交通管理和组织措施。     

Perceived stress and burnout syndrome: A moderated mediation model of self-efficacy and psychological comfort among polish air traffic controllers

How can one protect oneself against stress and burnout syndrome? What is the role of human cognitive processes? This study explores the moderated mediation effects of the trait of self-efficacy in a mode of perceived stress and burnout syndrome in a group of Polish air traffic controllers. The first aim of this study was to develop a better understanding of the construct of perceived stress. We proposed a latent variable, called psychological comfort, to clarify the role of self-efficacy in relation: stress and burnout. The second aim was to test the assumptions about the mediating role of self-efficacy in the relationship between stress and burnout via the level of psychological comfort. The most important aim was to investigate whether the direct and indirect associations between stress and burnout were moderated by the level of psychological comfort. For the study, self-report questionnaires were distributed to 609 active air traffic controllers from 18 air traffic control centers of the Polish Air Navigation Services Agency (PANSA). Three hundred forty sets of questionnaires were returned (55.88%) of which 110 were correctly completed (return rate - 18.1%). We formulated 5 hypotheses. Two of them were confirmed: the indirect effect of perceived stress on occupational burnout via general self-efficacy was significant and the indirect relationship between perceived stress and occupational burnout would be different for air traffic controllers characterized by various levels of psychological comfort. The study emphasizes the role of certain human cognitive resources which may play a role in the relationship between stress and burnout: self-efficacy, perceived stress, and psychological comfort. There are important practical conclusions from the research. Knowing about the level of psychological comfort helps to plan better actions to protect against the negative impact of chronic stress on cognitive functions and against the development of clinical symptoms of burnout syndrome.     

Investigations on the distribution of air transport traffic and CO2 emissions within the European Union

This study analyses the structure of air traffic and its distribution among the different countries in the European Union, as well as traffic with an origin or destination in non-EU countries. Data sources are Eurostat statistics and actual flight information from EUROCONTROL. Relevant variables such as the number of flights, passengers or cargo tonnes and production indicators (RPKs) are used together with fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions data. The segmentation of air traffic in terms of distance permits an assessment of air transport competition with surface transport modes.The results show a clear concentration of traffic in the five larger countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK), in terms of RPKs. In terms of distance the segment between 500 and 1000 km in the EU, has more flights, passengers, RTKs and CO₂ emissions than larger distances. On the environmental side, the distribution of CO₂ emissions within the EU Member States is presented, together with fuel efficiency parameters. In general, a direct relationship between RPKs and CO₂ emissions is observed for all countries and all distance bands. Consideration is given to the uptake of alternative fuels. Segmenting CO₂ emissions per distance band and aircraft type reveals which flights contribute the most the overall EU CO₂ emissions. Finally, projections for future CO₂ emissions are estimated, according to three different air traffic growth and biofuel introduction scenarios.     

铁路交通枢纽与城市综合体设计初探

通过对国内铁路旅客车站交通枢纽设计模式及国外交通枢纽城市综合体典型案例的分析和总结．提出铁路旅客车站结合物业开发设计并形成交通枢纽城市综合体将是国内铁路旅客车站发展趋势之一的观点,以期对今后铁路旅客车站的建筑设计有所启示。     

The impact of air policy on incoming tourist traffic: the contrasting cases of the Caribbean Community and the Middle-East

It is generally agreed that government ownership and participation in national carriers and regulated air service agreements can lead to inefficiencies and abuses of market power. This can result in poor carrier performance and service levels, impeding further growth in tourism markets. This paper contrasts this theory with recent case evidence from the Caribbean and the Middle-East. The former represents the mature exotic type beach holiday while the latter is a fast developing religious, cultural and multi-product form of tourism. In both cases multi-step relationships exist between the development of air transport policy and the number of incoming visitors. The strength and significance of these interrelationships are tested using two separate best-fit Structural Equation Models (SEMs) based on a panel data set of a selection of endogenous and exogenous variables for the period 2000-2007. It is found that, despite both regions’ continued government participation in national carriers, only in the Caribbean has this appeared to have resulted in the expected dampening effect on tourism output, whereas a reverse effect was found for the sample of Middle-Eastern states. Focussing on their formidable hub-and-spoke networks, state owned and vertically integrated Middle-Eastern carriers are still encouraged to offer competitive fare and service levels to capture 6th freedom traffic with the growing number of long-stay visitors being one of the main beneficiaries of this.     

我国铁路客运市场特点及客运专线客流组织原则研究

旅客运输需求是我国铁路客运专线运输组织与经营管理的基础。从市场总量、客流性质、旅客平均运距、跨线客流比例几方面概括我国铁路既有线客运市场的现状特征,基于京津城际铁路客流调查数据,分析城际客运专线客流量的周期性与波动性特征以及客流构成情况。参考国外高速铁路运营的成功经验,提出在坚持路网整体性和产品多样性的前提下,合理运用节拍式列车开行方案,满足旅客出行需求,对我国客运专线客流组织原则及合理开发客运专线产品进行探讨。     

The multi-class, multi-criterion traffic equilibrium and the efficiency of congestion pricing

We consider the effect of the so-called second-best tolls on the price of anarchy of the traffic equilibrium problem where there are multiple classes of users with a discrete set of values of time. We derive several bounds of the price of anarchy for this problem when the tolls are considered and not considered as part of the system cost, with the time-based criterion and the cost-based criterion, respectively. All the bounds give us useful information on the effect of the tolls, which can be used to design network toll schemes.     

Spatial evolution of airport traffic and air transport liberalisation: the case of Greece

This paper explores the evolution of airport passenger traffic in Greece over the period 1978–2006. The country is a member of the European Common Aviation Area, but despite air transport liberalisation, spatial concentration of traffic and asymmetry remain high and have not decreased significantly over time. Greece is still short of traffic generated by low-cost carriers especially outside the main metropolitan airports. The paper argues that further dispersion of traffic could be possible primarily in the mainland if low-cost carriers decide to dynamically enter the Greek market. Potential benefits for regional and tourism development should induce policy makers to work towards this direction.     

The impact of the ‘school run’ on road traffic accidents: A spatio-temporal analysis

Engineering and improved road safety education has resulted in an overall decrease in road traffic accident numbers in Christchurch, New Zealand. The temporal trends of crash data from 1980 to 2004 reveal that lowering of crash rates is not occurring at a uniform rate throughout the day, with comparative increases in crash rates occurring during morning rush hour, and during the ’school run’. No spatial clustering around schools was identified. This suggests that policies to reduce school travel related road accidents need to be focused on reducing overall traffic levels rather than focusing geographically on areas in the immediate vicinity of schools.     

A study on the temporal dynamics of tourism demand in the Asia Pacific Region

Using the monthly statistics of tourists from four different origins (America, Europe, Asia and Oceania) among seven places in the Asia Pacific region for a period from January 1991 to December 2005, we investigate these 28 time series using the Holt‐Winters method, artificial neural network and numerical graphical plots. Interesting comparisons on level fluctuations, trends and seasonal patterns of the time series among the Asia Pacific region are explored. These findings enable us to understand more about the temporal aspect of tourism demand in the Asia Pacific region. In sum, this paper lays out the importance of understanding the trend and seasonality indices in details. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How uncertain is the future of electric vehicle market: Results from Monte Carlo simulations using a nested logit model

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are widely regarded as an important component of the technology portfolio designed to accomplish policy goals in sustainability and energy security. However, the market acceptance of PEVs in the future remains largely uncertain from today's perspective. By integrating a consumer choice model based on nested multinomial logit and Monte Carlo simulation, this study analyzes the uncertainty of PEV market penetration using Monte Carlo simulation. Results suggest that the future market for PEVs is highly uncertain and there is a substantial risk of low penetration in the early and midterm market. Top factors contributing to market share variability are price sensitivities, energy cost, range limitation, and charging availability. The results also illustrate the potential effect of public policies in promoting PEVs through investment in battery technology and infrastructure deployment. Continued improvement of battery technologies and deployment of charging infrastructure alone do not necessarily reduce the spread of market share distributions, but may shift distributions toward right, i.e., increase the probability of having great market success.     

Analysis of the effect of charging infrastructure design on electric taxi driving profiles: A case study approach on the example of Singapore

Replacing conventional vehicle taxis with electric vehicles would be an efficient measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Due to the limited range and long charging times of current battery electric vehicles, it is of utmost importance to provide sufficient charging facilities. This article analyses the impact of the placement and charging power of charging stations on potential mileage and revenue of electric taxis on the example of Singapore. Therefore, we developed an agent-based electric taxi simulation model to investigate electric taxis’ driving profiles with respect to different vehicle types and charging infrastructure designs. This model is also capable of simulating conventional taxi driving profiles. The validation of these simulation results with real taxi data showed that the model is reproducing taxi driving profiles with high accuracy in great detail. We found out that electric taxis could reach the same mileage and revenue as conventional taxis if charging with a power of 160?kW is possible. Furthermore, we discovered that waiting times for available charging stations have a stronger effect on revenue than the length of detours to reach charging stations. Based on these findings, we concluded that it is more important to reduce waiting times by placing sufficient numbers of charging stations at each location before expanding the charging network by installing small numbers of charging stations at many locations.     

An optimal approach for a set covering version of the refueling-station location problem and its application to a diffusion model

This article deals with the refueling-station location problem for alternative fuel vehicles in a traffic network. Alternative fuel vehicles can be characterized by the vehicle range that limits the travelable distance with fuel at full capacity. I propose an efficient formulation of the refueling-station location problem using an optimal property and prove that the problem is NP(Non-deterministic Polynomial)-complete in the strong sense. I consider a special case of the refueling-station location problem in which the construction costs are equal for all nodes. In this case, the problem is to determine refueling station locations to minimize the total number of stations, while making the possible multiple predetermined origin–destination round-trips. I propose an optimal algorithm applicable when no refueling stations currently exist in a traffic network and a dynamic programming based algorithm applicable when a set of refueling stations already exists. I apply the algorithms to a traffic network to study the diffusion of refueling stations and predict the speed and range of station establishment. The computational experiments show that the speed of diffusion depends on the vehicle range and the sequence of the origin–destination demands considered in the diffusion process.     

Estimating the impact of COVID-19 on air travel in the medium and long term using neural network and Monte Carlo simulation

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial impact on the airline industry. Air travel in the United States declined in 2020 with significantly lower domestic and international flights. The dynamic change and uncertainty in the trend of COVID-19 have made it difficult to predict future air travel. This paper aims at developing and testing neural network models that predict domestic and international air travel in the medium and long term based on residents' daily trips by distance, economic condition, COVID-19 severity, and travel restrictions. Data in the United States from various sources were used to train and validate the neural network models, and Monte Carlo simulations were constructed to predict air travel under uncertainty of the pandemic and economic growth. The results show that weekly economic index (WEI) is the most important predictor for air travel. Additionally, daily trips by distance play a more important role in the prediction of domestic air travel than the international one, while travel restrictions seem to have an impact on both. Sensitivity analysis results for four different scenarios indicate that air travel in the future is more sensitive to the change in WEI than the changes in COVID-19 variables. Additionally, even in the best-case scenario, when the pandemic is over and the economy is back to normal, it still takes several years for air travel to return to normal, as before the pandemic. The findings have significant contributions to the literature in COVID-19's impact on air transportation and air travel prediction.     

System dynamics modelling and forecasting health tourism demand: the case of Russian resorts

This article presents the results of the system dynamics modelling of the regional market of health tourism in the Krasnodar region of Russia. The research was based on various indicators characterizing the supply and demand for this type of tourism for years 2006–2012. The medium-term forecast made by constructed model shows a possible decrease in number of health tourists and income of sanatorium organizations. Price competition of inexpensive foreign resorts was a key factor influencing the market of tourist services; therefore ruble devaluation to US dollar may improve the prognostic indicators.     

Hub airport slot Re-allocation and subsidy policy to speed up air traffic recovery amid COVID-19 pandemic --- case on the Chinese airline market

With international air travels largely banned around the world amid the global COVID-19 pandemic, many gateway and hub airports have more ideal slots available for reallocation. Airport traffic recovery replaces airport congestion to become the primary challenge of major airports around the world. With the pandemic well controlled domestically in China, the government liberalizes the hub airport slots for those previously forbidden services to the small/regional airports. This paper thus analytically examines the effect of this slot liberalization. The government subsidy to the small airports has also been considered. It is found that the slot liberalization can speed up airport traffic recovery for both hub and small airports. The hub airport slot liberalization leads to a lower level of minimum subsidy to sustain the survival of the small airports. Given any fixed level of subsidy to the small airport, both the total airport traffic and social welfare would improve with the slot liberalization at the hub airport. When the government can adjust the level of subsidy after liberalizing the hub airport slots, the subsidy could be excessive, if the government emphasizes too much on airport traffic recovery. This would, however, harm the overall social welfare.     

Analysis of the recent evolution of commercial air traffic CO2 emissions and fleet utilization in the six largest national markets of the European Union

This paper presents the results of a study performed to analyze the evolution of commercial air traffic and CO₂ emissions in the European Union, from 2010 to 2013. Data sources are the European Commission's Eurostat Air Transport Statistics (Eurostat) and EUROCONTROL flight plans database. The changes in the fuel efficiency are analyzed and the potential reasons for those changes investigated. The evolution in the airline fleet composition during the last decade is presented as one of the reasons for the improvement in fuel efficiency, measured in burnt fuel per total Revenue Tonne Kilometre (RTK), as well as the different parameters depending on the airline business model (network carriers, low cost companies, etc.) and the aircraft type.Results show a slight reduction in the traffic, both for passengers and cargo (about −0.8%), and a more important reduction in CO₂ emissions (−4.3%), thanks to an improvement in the fuel efficiency parameter (−3.5%) for the three years period. There has been a relevant change in the fleet composition in the last ten years, with the replacement of older models for more efficient ones, and a shift to larger aircraft, particularly in the regional segment. Traffic has decreased in shorter distances (internal EU traffic), but increased in more efficient long range flights (extra-EU traffic), resulting also in an improvement of the efficiency parameter as average aircraft size and stage length increases.