Where are the electric vehicles? A spatial model for vehicle-choice count data

Electric vehicles (EVs) are predicted to increase in market share as auto manufacturers introduce more fuel efficient vehicles to meet stricter fuel economy mandates and fossil fuel costs remain unpredictable. Reflecting spatial autocorrelation while controlling for a variety of demographic and locational (e.g., built environment) attributes, the zone-level spatial count model in this paper offers valuable information for power providers and charging station location decisions. By anticipating over 745,000 personal-vehicle registrations across a sample of 1000 census block groups in the Philadelphia region, a trivariate Poisson-lognormal conditional autoregressive (CAR) model anticipates Prius hybrid EV, other EV, and conventional vehicle ownership levels. Initial results signal higher EV ownership rates in more central zones with higher household incomes, along with significant residual spatial autocorrelation, suggesting that spatially-correlated latent variables and/or peer (neighbor) effects on purchase decisions are present. Such data sets will become more comprehensive and informative as EV market shares rise. This work’s multivariate Poisson-lognormal CAR modeling approach offers a rigorous, behaviorally-defensible framework for spatial patterns in choice behavior.     

Interplay between ethanol and electric vehicles as low carbon mobility options for passengers in the municipality of São Paulo

The Brazilian cities as well as many of the large urban centers in the world continue to expand, increasing the demand for mobility and transport, while, at the same time, the same cities are investing in greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation to avoid climate change. Brazil's urbanization rate increased from 26% in 1940 to almost 70% in 1980. During this period, the Brazilian population tripled and the urban population multiplied by seven. In 2010, the transport sector in São Paulo accounted for 71% of the total emissions released by the energy sector. Ethanol has been considered a fuel with less greenhouse gas emissions, when compared with fossil fuels. However, ethanol production would have to double to meet the expected demand. Electric vehicles (EVs) market is expanding around the world, and is also an option to reduce the transport emissions, if powered by clean electricity. To assess whether the adoption of EVs might bring more benefits than the current ethanol, we develop prospective scenarios supported by the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) simulation tool, taking a bottom-up tank-to-wheel approach to consider the CO₂ emissions of car in São Paulo. The scenario considering a substitution of 25% of gasoline-powered cars by EV in 2030 showed a reduction in energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, around 15% and 26% respectively in that year in comparison with 2015. We discuss the interplay between ethanol and EV, also considering emission coefficients from life cycle analysis conducted in Brazil, and concluded EV will have higher positive impact on climate change mitigation than ethanol.     

Transport policy in Australia—Evolution,learning and policy transfer

Urban transport policy in Australia has changed markedly over the period since the first generation of modern urban transport strategies were published in the 1960s. This is illustrated through a review of 43 transport strategies published for the five largest cities (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide) in Australia between 1965 and 2010. The review is complemented with observations from a survey of public servants in the policy and strategy divisions of state and territory transport agencies. The results of this research are examined using the Dolowitz–Marsh framework, considering the need to seek policy transfer, who is involved, what is transferred, from where policy lessons are learnt, the degree of transfer, constraints to policy learning and demonstration that transfer has occurred. The evidence for policy transfer and learning is mixed. Transport policy adopted by the states of Australia for their respective capital cities has been remarkably similar between the cities and has changed in a similar way over time, indicating the almost seamless transfer of concepts. Less positively, there is little published evidence that the performance of previous strategies has been critically examined and lessons learned, and that the approaches adopted in strategies are superior to alternative approaches and are able to achieve the objectives set for them.     

‘Gap Year' in China: views from the participants and implications for the future

This paper contributes to debate about how tourism is conceptualised. It takes a discursive approach to understanding some of the rules and relations that have influenced the way tourism has been defined ‘conventionally’ with particular attention to a way of seeing tourism that has the hallmarks of a tourist looking-glass. From here an examination is made of more contemporary movements that undermine conventional discourse. In searching for some common ground between these different approaches to tourism, a synthesis can start to be developed around the idea of relations and context. Tying these contemporary analyses to a relational and contextual basis invites some coherence in the search for new directions for tourism discourse.     

How do cities approach policy innovation and policy learning? A study of 30 policies in Northern Europe and North America

This paper reports on a study of current practice in policy transfer, and ways in which its effectiveness can be increased. A literature review identifies important factors in examining the transfer of policies. Results of interviews in eleven cities in Northern Europe and North America investigate these factors further.The principal motivations for policy transfer were strategic need and curiosity. Local officials and politicians dominated the process of initiating policy transfer, and local officials were also the leading players in transferring experience.A range of information sources are used in the search process but human interaction was the most important source of learning for two main reasons. First, there is too much information available through the Internet and the search techniques are not seen to be wholly effective in identifying the necessary information. Secondly, the information available on websites, portals and even good practice guides is not seen to be of mixed quality with risks of focussing only on successful implementation and therefore subject to some bias. Officials therefore rely on their trusted networks of peers for lessons as here they can access the ‘real implementation’ story and the unwritten lessons. Organisations which have a culture that is supportive of learning from elsewhere had strong and broad networks of external contacts and resourced their development whilst others are more insular or inward looking and reluctant to invest in policy lessons from elsewhere. Solutions to the problems identified in the evidence base are proposed.City to city policy transfer is a very active process in the field of transport. Not enough is yet understood about its benefits or the conditions under which it is most effective. Such understandings should help to promote and accelerate the uptake of effective and well matched policies.     

How adult children in the UK and the US view the driving cessation of their parents: Is a policy window opening?

Both the UK and the US have rapidly ageing and increasingly diverse populations very dependent on driving. A comparative study commissioned by the UK Department for Transport found that in both the UK and the US adult children of older drivers, whilst often concerned about their parents’ continued driving, were also worried about the burden they would carry when their parents stopped driving, although there were differences by race and ethnicity. This study suggests that a policy window may be opening through which babyboomers can advocate for a range of driver training, roadway and vehicle improvements, expansion and enhancement of traditional public transportation and community transport options, improvements in accessibility and pedestrian infrastructure, and supportive land use and housing policies that would allow older people to drive safely longer, and, find meaningful mobility options when they can no longer drive. Policy responses must recognise and respond appropriately to differences by race and ethnicity.     

Social influence in the global diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles – A meta-analysis

Alternative fuel vehicle technologies are needed to mitigate rising greenhouse gas emissions from transport. Social influence is integral to the diffusion of private vehicles which are highly visible and fulfil practical as well as social functions. This paper provides the first meta-analysis of empirical studies which measure the strength of social influence on consumer vehicle choice. A systematic literature review identified 21 studies that examined three types of social influence: interpersonal communication; neighbourhood effect; and conformity with social norms. A random effects meta-analysis found a significant and small to moderate effect of social influence on vehicle choices (r = 0.241, p < 0.001). The overall effect size did not vary significantly between types of social influence nor between types of vehicle (conventional or alternative fuel). However, further analysis using meta-regression found that heterogeneity in social influence effect size across studies was explained by differences in countries' cultural receptiveness to normative influence. These findings have important implications for policy and modelling analysis of alternative fuel vehicle adoption, for which diffusion is both a socially and culturally-mediated process.     

Evaluating and implementing transport measures in a wider policy context: the ‘Civilising Cities’ initiative

In the UK, local authority transport departments are being encouraged to implement transport schemes that can contribute cost-effectively to achieving a wide range of corporate policy objectives. The ‘Civilising Cities’ initiative, funded by the UK's RAC Foundation and the Department for Transport, seeks to identify—through a set of Pilot Projects—how packages of transport measures (usually in partnership with initiatives from other agencies) can contribute to improving local quality of life. One key feature of the project has been the development of a comprehensive Indicator Framework for cross-sector evaluation, that has defined a set of indicators covering nine areas of quality of life: neighbourhood, environment, transport, health, education, local economy, crime, participation and lifestyle. The paper outlines the philosophy behind the project, the range of policy instruments being examined and describes the Indicator Framework and its application.     

New York City’s congestion pricing experience and implications for road pricing acceptance in the United States

Public acceptance is widely recognized as a major barrier to widespread adoption of road pricing in the United States and internationally. Using New York City as a case study, this paper analyzes how Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s 2007 congestion pricing proposal gained widespread public support but was ultimately blocked in the State Legislature. The paper assesses the implications of New York’s experience for pursuing congestion pricing and mileage-based taxes in the United States. A central conclusion from this analysis is that gaining approval of pricing will require changing how motorists view the effect of pricing on them personally. Given the power of even small groups of auto users to block pricing through the political process, pricing proposals need to be perceived as benefiting drivers individually and not simply society at large. The paper discusses approaches to road pricing in light of New York City’s experience.     

Is there a good governance model for the delivery of contemporary transport policy and practice? An examination of Melbourne and Perth

Land use and transport integration (LUTI) is a contemporary planning policy and practice that supports sustainable transport. Attempts to implement LUTI have raised questions about the appropriate organisational structure and the role of governance to deliver this policy. This paper presents the discussions from two public fora held in 2008 in Melbourne and Perth, Australia. Their purpose was to examine the governance arrangements for land use and transport integration. It is concluded that integration of land use and transport agencies does not mean that land use transport integration will be achieved in practice. Rather than simple organisational re-structuring, a focus on networked governance, together with strong regulation, is conducive to inclusive policy development and the implementation of land use and transport integration policies.     

Airport alliances and mergers – Structural change in the airport industry?

Recent years have seen a global trend towards the emergence of multi-airport companies operating at a global scale. This paper employs industrial and transaction costs economics to identify the main drivers that shape the patterns of international cross-ownership structures that have emerged in the airport industry. In addition, implications for competition and competition policy are drawn.     

Reviewing Thailand's master plans and policies: implications for creative tourism?

This article contributes to an understanding of how creative tourism is perceived on a national level, by using Thailand as a case analysis. The primary objective of this article is to investigate Thailand's plans and policies for the creative economy at both national and ministry levels in relation to creative tourism. It also identifies how a national strategic plan can provide a blueprint for individual agency master plans to provide policy support for the development of the creative economy in the tourism sector. Thailand is chosen as an example of how government and related agencies can contribute to a national creative tourism movement in the country, especially in the light of the Tourism Authority of Thailand branding campaign to stimulate creative tourism to the destination. The qualitative research methodology through content analysis is used to scrutinise the plan and policy contents from the selected government agencies. The results demonstrate a better view of how creative tourism is positioned in the Thailand context and contribute to a policy study on the creative economy in the tourism sector as well as in creative tourism.     

How does the inclination to bicycle sway the decision to ride in warm and winter seasons?

Many cities are creating policies and programs aimed at expanding bicycling mode shares. Attitudes towards bicycling in combination with weather conditions, however, can strongly influence the decision to ride. In locations with wide annual seasonal variation, attitudes can radically alter demand on bicycle networks across the year. Though researchers have looked at weather impacts on bicycling, the link between attitudinal factors that might impact riding decisions and seasonal variation remains understudied. This paper investigates heterogeneous taste preferences about the inclination to bicycle for riders who ride only in the warm weather and those who ride all year long (including during severe winters). This research relies on survey data from Edmonton, Canada and presents results from a hybrid discrete choice model. After controlling for age, sex, education, income, the supply of bike lanes, and the latent variable “bicycling inclination,” the results indicate that attitudes have a significantly positive impact on the decision to ride across seasons. The findings suggest that public education and season-specific training programs—particularly aimed at adults and women—have the potential to increase bicycling all year around.     

How large is the gap between present and efficient transport prices in Europe?

In this paper, we analyse the gap between present transport prices and efficient transport prices. Efficient transport prices are those prices that maximise economic welfare, including external costs (congestion, air pollution, accidents). The methodology is applied to six urban and interregional case studies using one common optimal pricing model. The case studies cover passenger as well as freight transport and cover all modes. We find that prices need to be raised most for peak urban passenger car transport and to a lesser extent for interregional road transport. Optimal pricing results for public transport are more mixed. We show that current external costs on congested roads are a bad guide for optimal taxes and tolls: the optimal toll that takes into account the reaction of demand is often less than one third of the present marginal external cost.     

How does demand uncertainty affect food and beverage capacity in the hotel industry?

This study investigates the effect of demand uncertainty on hotels’ food and beverage (F&B) capacity using the operation data of international tourist hotels in Taiwan. The empirical results of this study show that demand uncertainty leads to an increase in F&B capacity. Moreover, the magnitude of this effect increasingly strengthens for hotels with larger F&B scales. Our results together with other studies on room capacity collectively indicate that hotels’ overcapacity problem resulting from demand uncertainty considerably varies with hotel scales and between different hotel sectors.     

Why is electric vehicle uptake low in Atlantic Canada? A comparison to leading adoption provinces

This paper investigates potential electric vehicle (EV) adoption among households in Atlantic Canada, a region lagging in terms of EV uptake. The data come from a 2015 Survey for Preferences and Attitudes of Canadians towards Electric Vehicles or SPACE, with an intent to investigate electric mobility prospects in Canada through a series of socioeconomic, attitudinal, and stated preference (SP) questions. A latent class (LC) random utility model is used to segment Atlantic respondents based on their sociodemographic and environmental attitudes, and to estimate their willingness-to-pay for different vehicular features. A separate model is estimated for leading adoption provinces (Ontario and British Columbia), and compared to the Atlantic model. Results indicate that cash incentives and the quality of battery warranty are important features shaping the choice of vehicle powertrain in the Atlantic sample. Contrary to the model obtained from the leading provinces, electric range, maintenance cost, free parking, and access to high occupancy vehicle lanes are not significant attributes in the Atlantic model. With respect to segmentation, the adoption of EVs in the Atlantic model increases with youth, education, and progressive attitudes towards the environment, while income is not a determining factor. Our results imply some support for EVs among Atlantic consumers, though at less advanced levels than the leading adoption provinces in Canada. However, the high purchase price of EVs, lack of financial incentives, and limited public charging infrastructure are seen as key reasons for low EV deployment in Atlantic Canada. The demographic profiles of the plug-in oriented group, found in this study, suggest targeted decisions regarding policy and marketing.     

An assessment of the free and secure trade (FAST) program along the Canada–US border

Several new programs were introduced under the Smart Border Action Plan of 2001 to ensure both secure and efficient trade across the Canada–US border. This article evaluates just how well one of the programs, Free and Secure Trade (FAST), has succeeded in expediting shipments and reducing delays at the border. The results of this study indicate that the FAST program has reduced the average border wait time at four of the five busiest crossing ports. However, the benefits associated with the FAST program are unevenly distributed among the ports, determined by the ability to accommodate infrastructure improvements, and firms, with larger trucking companies and exporters reaping the benefits and small and medium-sized trucking firms and exporters burdened by costs and often unable to capitalize on the program’s benefits. Recommendations for program improvement include: greater regulatory cooperation between Canada and the US to reduce costly duplication and paperwork, and providing tax incentives or subsidies to small and medium-size firms as a means to increase the participation rate in the program.     

Framing scrappage in Germany and the UK: from climate discourse to recession talk?

This paper highlights the distinctive discursive framing of transport policy in Germany and the UK. Using an analysis of the introduction of the ‘scrappage bonus’ in both countries, against the background of the financial crisis, we show how distinct nationally specific discourses and political cultures are expressed within these. The German government was an early adopter of the policy, but the UK government was relatively late in introducing its own scheme. While the German scrappage scheme was introduced officially as an environmental bonus, the UK scheme did not make any reference to environmental concerns. We argue that these differences are important in the context of a wider research aim, to identify nationally specific mobility regimes and to develop an understanding of different possible pathways towards more environmentally friendly transport futures.