组织创新的渐变与突变

一个组织在进行创新之后,我们通常会从程度上对创新后的组织进行度量和评估以检查创新的范围。根据原有组织和创新后的组织之间的程度关系,可以把组织创新的方式划分为两种类型:突变型组织创新和渐变型组织创新。有人形象地把前一种创新比喻为外科手术,靠一次手术解决企业病痛,     

超高缓和段的超高旋转与计算

本文介绍了缓和曲线的超高缓和段的超高方式的旋转与计算,有些对在旋转过程中的表述与以前不太一样,计算公式简捷、准确。     

内蒙古地区路基边坡坡度设计分析与探讨

本文结合内蒙古地区自然状况,对不良地质地段路基填筑高度进行分析,介绍了合理路基高度确定原则,通过对已建公路路基高度调查统计,确定路基高度与路基功能关系,最终推荐路基合理高度。     

公路坡度检测及自动测量仪器的研制

为解决公路施工单位和检测部门目前仍然采用人工测量法检测路肩坡度的现状,提出新的公路坡度检测方法,研制公路坡度自动测量仪,实现公路检测仪表化。     

公路路线超高设计的关键问题分析

科技的不断进步与发展，大大推动了交通运输业的发展与完善，公路路线的优化设计在整个公路建设中起着至关重要的作用，道路设计被逐渐的重视起来。现重点分析讨论了公路路线超高设计的几个关键的问题，并针对其存在的问题提出了相应的解决措施与方法。     

超高水充填技术应用与成本控制

我国是一个煤炭开采大国，煤炭开采造成了地表沉陷，引起矿区生态环境、地面村庄建筑物等的破坏。运用超高水充填采煤方式开采，就是在水中添加超高水材料，配制成两种以水为主要成分的具有高流动性的浆体（水含量95%以上），使流入采空区的混合浆体在可控时间内胶结、凝聚，达到一定的强度，以实现充填采空区，控制围岩变形，避免地表下沉的目的。     

坡度对植被混凝土基材早期蒸散效应的影响

植被混凝土基材中的水分是植被生长、生态体系构建的决定性因素,也是生态防护技术及其防护体系的关键,通过研究坡度对基材蒸发效应的影响,为基材早期养护及种子萌发提供依据。通过单一变量法,探讨了不同坡度对基材早期蒸散效应的影响,同时利用称重法得出试验结果。结果表明:坡度陡的区域比坡度缓的区域蒸发速率快,累计蒸发量大;基材上部、中部、下部内的水分蒸发累积量与蒸发变化量的关系都是上部>中部>下部。根据坡度对基材早期蒸发的影响,应在基材养护第2天、第5天、第7天及以后每天进行少量的洒水养护,确保基材水分均匀分布。     

基于Matlab麻阳地区土质边坡坡度与滑坡发育概率关系研究

为查明麻阳地区滑坡发育规律,发掘斜坡坡度与滑坡发育概率之间关系。通过基于Matlab数学软件对麻阳地区129处滑坡发育的原始斜坡坡度进行研究,发现区内滑坡发育频数与坡度具有正态分布特征,调用Jarque-Bera法检验其服从正态分布,接着应用软件内置拟合工具箱求得正态函数关系式与滑坡发育概率。研究结果表明:研究区内山坡坡度区间为23°～43°时,发生滑坡概率为67.72%;坡度在13°～23°与43°～55°区间时,发生滑坡概率为28.87%;坡度小于13°或大于55°时,发生滑坡概率为3.41%。所得分析结果与实际调查的情况吻合较好,可为区内滑坡防治规划提供参考,也为其他从事地质灾害研究工作者提供新的研究思路。     

废弃矿渣坡面在不同坡度下的产流产沙特征

近年来,经济的加速发展促使矿山开采活动日益频繁,废弃矿渣导致的环境问题成为研究热点.本文通过人工模拟降雨实验研究不同坡度下矿渣坡面径流特征.研究结果表明,①降雨过程都分为三个过程:产流汇流阶段、稳定阶段、退水阶段.②在0°、5°、10°坡度下,开始产流的时间为13.25min、2.5min、1.4min,退水历时15.7min、4.01min、3.05min.不同的坡度下开始产流时间退水时间要短,同时随着坡度的增加,开始产流时间和退水时间显著减少.③所有坡度的产流开始后一段时间内,坡面径流率均随着时间的增加而增加,而后达到稳定水平,而产沙量呈先增加后减少的变化规律.不同坡度条件下,坡度越大,产流产沙量越大.     

废弃矿渣坡面在不同坡度下的产流产沙特征

近年来,经济的加速发展促使矿山开采活动日益频繁,废弃矿渣导致的环境问题成为研究热点.本文通过人工模拟降雨实验研究不同坡度下矿渣坡面径流特征.研究结果表明,①降雨过程都分为三个过程:产流汇流阶段、稳定阶段、退水阶段.②在0°、5°、10°坡度下,开始产流的时间为13.25min、2.5min、1.4min,退水历时15.7min、4.01min、3.05min.不同的坡度下开始产流时间退水时间要短,同时随着坡度的增加,开始产流时间和退水时间显著减少.③所有坡度的产流开始后一段时间内,坡面径流率均随着时间的增加而增加,而后达到稳定水平,而产沙量呈先增加后减少的变化规律.不同坡度条件下,坡度越大,产流产沙量越大.     

Bayesian estimation of transition probabilities from repeated cross sections

This paper discusses some simple practical advantages of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in estimating entry and exit transition probabilities from repeated independent surveys. Simulated data are used to illustrate the usefulness of MCMC methods when the likelihood function has multiple local maxima. Actual data on the evaluation of an HIV prevention intervention program among drug users are used to demonstrate the advantage of using prior information to enhance parameter identificaiton. The latter example also demonstrates an important strength of the MCMC approach, namely the ability to make inferences on arbitrary functions of model parameters.     

浅析高速公路岩石边坡喷混植生技术的特点和技术关键

文中对高速公路岩石边坡喷混植生技术进行了较全面的综合总结,主要涉及到喷混植生技术的概念、特点、技术关键及应用。     

城市化率指标的本质与合理目标进度问题

针对当前我国地方政府制定高城市化率目标提出质疑,分析和讨论了这一现象的根源和本质,并指出地方政府不应盲目攀比,而须根据自身基础和发展条件,制定合理的、合适的城市化率目标.     

Repeated substitution method: The ratio estimator for the population variance

This paper proposes a new unbiased estimator for the population variance in finite population sample surveys using auxiliary information. This estimator has a smaller mean squared error than the conventional unbiased estimator, the ratio estimator established by Isaki (1983) and it has the same precision than the regression estimator. Furthermore, it is a much more interesting estimator from the computation viewpoint.     

压力利用率与锤耗的关系研究

主要从六面顶压机顶锤对合成块施压的过程中,合成块所承受压力的受力分析,研究压力变化对锤耗的影响,总结出合成块组装高度设计、试验的理论依据,提出了检验组装高度的技术指标,提高设计可靠性,缩短试验周期,减少生产过程中的顶锤消耗。     

经济转型期交通运输企业财务管理中存在的问题及对策

文章提出了经济转型期交通运输企业在财务管理中存在的诸多问题,比如财务管理目标定位没有突出核心价值等,并有针对性地提出了对策,希望能够为经济转型期的交通运输企业提供借鉴。     

The association between two random elements: A complete characterization and odds ratio models

For random elements X and Y (e.g. vectors) a complete characterization of their association is given in terms of an odds ratio function. The main result establishes for any odds ratio function and any pre-specified marginals the unique existence of a corresponding joint distribution (the joint density is obtained as a limit of an iterative procedure of marginal fittings). Restricting only the odds ratio function but not the marginals leads to semi-parmetric association models for which statistical inference is available for samples drawn conditionally on either X or Y. Log-bilinear association models for random vectors X and Y are introduced which generalize standard (regression) models by removing restrictions on the marginals. In particular, the logistic regression model is recognized as a log-bilinear association model. And the joint distribution of X and Y is shown to be multivariate normal if and only if both marginals are normal and the association is log-bilinear.Acknowledgements The author thanks both referees for their helpful comments which improved the first draft of the paper.     

Partnerships in Local Government: The case of transition support services for young people with learning disabilities

Abstract

This paper examines a type of partnership that is formed to deliver transition support services for young people with learning disabilities. What makes transition partnerships instructive for partnership research is that they are constituted between statutory and non-statutory agencies across a wide range of service sectors. Transition for this population group with its specific needs has often been described as a ‘wicked problem’. The paper suggests that a split between strategic and operational levels of partnership work adversely affects policy implementation and contributes to the inability of stakeholders to bring about improved outcomes for service users.     

A multiple regime smooth transition Heterogeneous Autoregressive model for long memory and asymmetries

In this paper we propose a flexible model to describe nonlinearities and long-range dependence in time series dynamics. The new model is a multiple regime smooth transition extension of the Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) model, which is specifically designed to model the behavior of the volatility inherent in financial time series. The model is able to simultaneously approximate long memory behavior, as well as describe sign and size asymmetries. A sequence of tests is developed to determine the number of regimes, and an estimation and testing procedure is presented. Monte Carlo simulations evaluate the finite-sample properties of the proposed tests and estimation procedures. We apply the model to several Dow Jones Industrial Average index stocks using transaction level data from the Trades and Quotes database that covers ten years of data. We find strong support for long memory and both sign and size asymmetries. Furthermore, the new model, when combined with the linear HAR model, is viable and flexible for purposes of forecasting volatility.     

The cyclicality of job-to-job transitions and its implications for aggregate productivity

This paper analyzes the job-to-job transitions of workers in the United States. First, I propose a new method of correcting the time-aggregation bias. The bias correction does not significantly alter the cyclical properties of the job-to-job transition rates. The bias-corrected series from 1996 to 2011 reveals a procyclical pattern of job-to-job transitions and a large decline since the beginning of the 2000s. Second, I construct a model of on-the-job search and explore the implications of this phenomenon. The calibrated model quantifies the effect of the decline in the reallocation of workers through job-to-job transitions on total factor productivity (TFP). From 2009 to 2011, the model accounts for about 0.4–0.5% annual decline in TFP.