证券声音（2009年8-9月）

梅德韦杰夫（俄罗斯总统）： 俄罗斯因不实施改革而陷入了“挣扎”，这样继续下去我们无法发展，这是一条“死路”。我们必须做出决定改变经济结构，否则俄罗斯的经济就没有未来。一旦经济危机开始侵蚀经济，俄罗斯的经济形势会比其他国家更为糟糕，国家的预算收入会大受影响，其后果可想而知。（8月10日，每日电讯报）     

驱动“三架马车”实达外设突围金融危机

随着全球金融危机逐步向实体经济蔓延,许多企业陷入了重重包围之中——在美国汽车“三巨头”陷入泥潭之后,作为日本经济龙头的日本汽车企业面临全线崩溃。国内企业也不容乐观,截止到目前,已有7万多家出口导向型中小企业倒闭。数据还显示,受金融危机影响,在发布年度业绩预告的376家上市公司中,有241家公司预期全年盈利减少或亏损,即有超过6成公司“报忧”。     

经济正由高速转向中速

现阶段，调控的目标是以“中速增长”为前提，力求用“中速“发展取而代之；短期内。避免硬着陆至“低速”的政策取向将引领未来的宏观经济发展。受此影响，产业发展、行业布局等中观甚至微观的政策也将持续影响资本市场的各种变化。 改革开放三十几年来，我国经济增长高速周期已经结束（32年），依靠充分享受人日红利的外贸和持续高速的固定资...     

发挥专项债券在稳经济发展中的重要作用

<正>受新冠肺炎疫情（以下简称“疫情”）的不确定性和反复性的影响,我国经济遇到了前所未有的困难,如何实现稳中求进,推进经济高质量发展是当前工作的重中之重。而政府的专项债券是实现稳中求进的重要手段,是扩大有效投资、积极应对内外部冲击和经济下行压力的重要举措。     

山区经济面临的困境与出路

<正> 尤溪县山林占全县面积的85.5％,故有“八山一水一分田”之称,森林和水力资源丰富,是全国28个重点林业县之一,又是全国100个农村电气化试点县之一。“七五”期间,全县经济工作有了较大的发展,工农业总产值以平均每年30.1％速度递增,是一个经济比较富裕的山区。一、困境近年来,我县经济受大气候的影响,陷入了困境。主要表现在以下几个方面:     

当前开发贫困地区的思路

（一）当前开发贫困地区存在的问题 1、开发环境的障碍。贫困地区综合开发是一项系统工程,目前仍受山区经济条件诸多方面的制约:其一是交通不便,信息不灵,与富区、城区处于隔绝半隔绝状态;其二,农业经营规模狭小、分散,不利于农业机械化、水利化,制约了连片开发;其三,集体经济薄弱,大部分地区农业贷款以农户为受贷载体,缺乏使用大额贷款的能力。 2、经济要素组合结构失衡。具体表现:（1）资金投入后受“开发热”影响使其作用抵消。一是热衷于上城建和生活基础设施项目,挤占了生产性资金;二是建设项目超标准,资金缺口大,工期延长、生产能力难以形成;三是建成的企业,往往是微利或亏损企业,开工不足,资产部分闲置。（2）贫困地区劳动者文化素质低,技术落后。（3）生产力主体即劳动者超慢发育,使其在经济开发过程中处于不适应、不协调的状态,形成“高投入、低效益”状况,在贫困地区随时可见。     

2023年中国经济有望重回快速发展轨道

<正>随着经济政策和非经济政策都聚焦稳增长促发展,2023年中国经济增速将回到5%—6%的水平,在全球经济下行的大趋势下逆流而上,成为全球主要经济体中的亮点。受国际环境复杂多变、国内疫情反复不断等影响,2022年四季度我国经济内生动力趋弱,下行压力持续加大,预计2022年国内生产总值（GDP）增长3%左右。2022年12月召开的中央经济工作会议直接指出了当前我国经济面临的严峻形势,“需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力仍然较大,外部环境动荡不安,给我国经济带来的影响加深”,并对经济运行中的问题做出针对性部署,要求2023年“突出做好稳增长、稳就业、稳物价工作”,政策聚力“稳增长”的态势更加清晰。     

分享澳大利亚金融监管成功经验

自全球金融危机以来,与其他发达国家相比,澳大利亚经济及金融产业的表现尤为出色。澳大利亚没有陷入经济衰退,没有经历银行破产,而且成功地避免了受其他发达国家影响而导致的大规模金融动荡。澳大利亚贸易部长Simorl Crean（西蒙·克林）和澳大利亚证券及投资事务监察委员会副主席并金融监管局局长Greg Medcraft（格雷格·梅德柯拉夫特）娓娓道来澳大利亚金融监管方面的经验     

2009年八大财经猜想

中国经济如何“保八”增长;中国楼市是否见底;中国股市是否见底;中国经济能否顺利转型;次货危机将如何演化;全球经济是否陷入衰退……     

2009年八大财经猜想

中国经济如何“保八”增长;中国楼市是否见底;中国股市是否见底;中国经济能否顺利转型;次货危机将如何演化;全球经济是否陷入衰退……     

Debt and Taxes and Uncertainty

With a graduated personal tax schedule, Miller showed that there could be an equilibrium debt supply for the corporate sector as a whole. In the presence of uncertainty there is also a unique debt/equity ratio for each individual firm, and this ratio is related to the firm's operational risk characteristics. However, if firms merge and spin off in response to tax incentives, the identity of firms is ambiguous and only the corporate sector is a meaningful construct. These arguments are developed in both discrete and continuous models that employ extensions of the arbitrage-free pricing theory.     

教育与资本怎样的前景怎样的现实

来自政府的声音: "动员各种社会资源,发展教育" 此次论坛上财政部长助理张少春的发言是最受关注的发言之一.他的演讲传达出的信息有这样几方面:第一,谈到现实,他认为全社会对教育的巨大需求与我国公共投入不足已成为我国教育事业发展的突出矛盾.近年来,以公共部门投入为主,多渠道筹措教育经费的教育投入机制成为解决这一问题的重要途径,也使得公共部门与私营部门在教育领域的合作日益密切.第二,谈到前景,他认为,1.中国经济持续、快速的增长对高技能人才产生巨大的需求,这为私营部门的参与提供了广阔空间.2.随着公共财政职能的不断完善,财政资金将在各项教育事业中重新进行分配,进一步优化财政支出结构,提高资金的使用效率.在"十一五"期间,我国将把公共支出的重点转移到农村.我们将逐步把全体农村适龄儿童的义务教育全部纳入公共财政体制.     

Director gender and mergers and acquisitions

Does director gender influence CEO empire building? Does it affect the bid premium paid for target firms? Less overconfident female directors less overestimate merger gains. As a result, firms with female directors are less likely to make acquisitions and if they do, pay lower bid premia. Using acquisition bids by S&P 1500 companies during 1997–2009 we find that each additional female director is associated with 7.6% fewer bids, and each additional female director on a bidder board reduces the bid premium paid by 15.4%. Our findings support the notion that female directors help create shareholder value through their influence on acquisition decisions. We also discuss other possible interpretations of our findings.     

Political corruption and mergers and acquisitions

This research examines the relation between political corruption and mergers and acquisitions (M&As). We find that local corruption increases firm acquisitiveness but decreases firm targetiveness. The levels of corruption in acquirer areas relate positively to the bid premiums and negatively to the likelihood of deal completion. Corruption motivates acquiring firms to use excess cash for payment, which mitigates the negative effect of corruption on acquirer shareholder value. The evidence indicates that acquisitions help acquiring firms convert cash into hard-to-extract assets and relocate assets from the high to low corruption areas, thereby shielding their liquid assets from expropriation by local officials.     

East and west and north and south : A preliminary model

The Brandt report and other proposals for a new North-South world order continue to be the focus of lively debate, yet it is often argued that little concrete has emerged from their recommendations. A major reason for this, the author argues, is that the East-West conflict component is not sufficiently taken into consideration-East-West tensions are a severe constraint on and a determining factor of North-South relations. Using influence diagrams, the author develops a flexible framework for discussion and assessment of N/S-E/W relations.     

Trust and cross-border mergers and acquisitions

A number of studies suggest that social trust matters for investment. Using different measures of trust from World Values Survey, we show that countries where people display higher levels of trust engage in more cross-border M&A activities. When they do, these acquirers pay lower premiums. To the extent that these acquirers also tend to engage in larger acquisitions as well, our findings suggest that a larger selection pool of potential targets and higher value targets enable these acquirers to negotiate for lower premiums. We do not find evidence of the significant effect for target country trust levels. Hence, trust may benefit those acquiring firms in cross-border transactions.     

Tournament-based incentives and mergers and acquisitions

This research examines the relation between tournament-based incentives, which are proxied by the difference between a firm's CEO pay and the median pay of the senior managers, and mergers and acquisitions (M&As). We find that tournament-based incentives are positively related to firm acquisitiveness and acquiring firms' stock and operating performance. Further analysis indicates that positive acquisition performance increases the likelihood of the CEO being promoted from inside the acquiring firm. Our evidence is consistent with the view that tournament-based incentives motivate acquiring firms' managers to make greater efforts and take more risk that result in superior acquisition performance.     

Corporate Innovations and Mergers and Acquisitions

Using a large and unique patent‐merger data set over the period 1984 to 2006, we show that companies with large patent portfolios and low R&D expenses are acquirers, while companies with high R&D expenses and slow growth in patent output are targets. Further, technological overlap between firm pairs has a positive effect on transaction incidence, and this effect is reduced for firm pairs that overlap in product markets. We also show that acquirers with prior technological linkage to their target firms produce more patents afterwards. We conclude that synergies obtained from combining innovation capabilities are important drivers of acquisitions.