市场短期操纵行为与订单簿高频信息的关联研究——基于中国市场的实证分析

利用2016年11和12月中国A股市场的5秒高频数据,考量订单簿斜率指标与资产价格之间的关系。结果显示：订单簿斜率指标对存在于高频环境中的市场异象有着较好的解释力。由于订单簿斜率指标在不同市值条件下呈倒挂现象,且买卖订单簿斜率指标与资产价格呈现不同的相关关系。因此,订单簿斜率能在一定程度上捕捉市场操纵行为的信号。该研究有助于更好地理解中国股票市场中的操纵行为,也可为预警机制的建设提供有效的指标选择。     

商业银行银行账户利率风险管理面临的挑战

银行账户利率风险是目前商业银行面临的主要市场风险之一。该文基于当前商业银行风险管理实践揭示其银行帐户利率风险管理在计量、运用方面面临的挑战,指出商业银行必须从制度、计量、监测、控制等方面逐步建立相应体系,以强化银行账户利率风险管理,适应监管要求和新资本协议要求。     

以人为本是情报信息业发展的必然趋势

本文对现阶段图书情报业的现状进行了探讨,指出以"书"为本的图书情报一体化是图书情报工作停滞不前的主要原因,提出以"人"为本才是图书情报业面向科研,面向经济,面向市场发展的必然趋势。     

从普遍“类本质”到具体的“历史化”——《1844年经济学-哲学手稿》中“异化”思想探微

异化理论是马克思《手稿》中影响最大的理论,本文从异化的内涵及表现、异化的成因及解决为切入点,探讨了《手稿》的"马克思主义"与之后的"马克思主义"思想之差异。本文认为,《资本论》的马克思主义才是真正重要的马克思主义,而《手稿》只是准备之作,马克思本人后来对其中的观点多有发展、修正。     

The Book-to-Price Effect in Stock Returns: Accounting for Leverage

This paper lays out a decomposition of book‐to‐price (B/P) that derives from the accounting for book value and that articulates precisely how B/P “absorbs” leverage. The B/P ratio can be decomposed into an enterprise book‐to‐price (that pertains to operations and potentially reflects operating risk) and a leverage component (that reflects financing risk). The empirical analysis shows that the enterprise book‐to‐price ratio is positively related to subsequent stock returns but, conditional upon the enterprise book‐to‐price, the leverage component of B/P is negatively associated with future stock returns. Further, both enterprise book‐to‐price and leverage explain returns over those associated with Fama and French nominated factors—including the book‐to‐price factor—albeit negatively so for leverage. The seemingly perverse finding with respect to the leverage component of B/P survives under controls for size, estimated beta, return volatility, momentum, and default risk.     

The information content of a limit order book: The case of an FX market

In this paper we examine the question of whether knowledge of the information contained in a limit order book helps to provide economic value in a simple trading scheme. Given the greater information content of the order book, over simple price information, it might naturally be expected that the order book would dominate. Using Dollar Sterling tick data, we find that despite the in-sample statistical significance of variables describing the structure of the limit order book in explaining tick-by-tick returns, they do not consistently add significant economic value out-of-sample. We show this using a simple linear model to determine trading activity, as well as a model-free genetic algorithm based on price, order flow, and order book information. We also find that the profitability of all trading rules based on genetic algorithms dropped substantially in 2008 compared to 2003 data.     

Fixed price and book building methods in an exogenous environment: Evidence from Indonesia stock market

Book building has become a popular method of selling new shares. Although previous models suggest that book building is an efficient method for price discovery in initial public offering (IPO) issuance, empirical evidence provides mixed results. Previous empirical findings on IPO methods have been obtained from markets that allow issuers to choose the IPO method, and this setting is not free from endogeneity issues. We investigate the effect of IPO method (fixed price vs book building) in Indonesia, which is an emerging market that offers an exogenous setting for IPO methods. More specifically, Indonesia used the fixed price method for IPOs before October 2000 and used the book building method thereafter following the introduction of new IPO regulations. Using estimation methods that consider clustering phenomena, we find that book building yields larger underpricing and greater volatility than the fixed price method. Moreover, a positive relationship is observed between underpricing and aftermarket volatility for the book building method and book building IPOs underperform fixed price IPOs. No relationship was observed between underpricing and long-term performance for book building IPOs. Compared with previous models, our findings suggest that book building does not represent a quality IPO method and suffers from agency conflict; thus, this method needs improvement.     

The total cost of trading Belgian shares: Brussels versus London

Since 1990, London’s SEAQ International (SEAQ-I) has attracted considerable trading volume in Belgian equities. This paper investigates competition between the Brussels CATS market and London’s SEAQ-I. Toward this end, we gathered extensive limit order book data as well as transactions and quotation information. With regard to liquidity (indirect costs), measured by the quoted and effective bid–ask spread, the paper concludes that CATS outperforms SEAQ International for both measures. The effective spread is of course substantially smaller than the quoted spread, with the CATS effective spread showing a U-shaped form. This paper, unique in employing an extensive data set that includes all hidden orders and the whole limit order book, produces results in line with the different market microstructure models. Total trading costs on CATS are lower (higher) for small (large) trade sizes.     

Algorithmic trading in a microstructural limit order book model

We propose a microstructural modeling framework for studying optimal market-making policies in a FIFO (first in first out) limit order book (order book). In this context, the limit orders, market orders, and cancel orders arrivals in the order book are modeled as point processes with intensities that only depend on the state of the order book. These are high-dimensional models which are realistic from a micro-structure point of view and have been recently developed in the literature. In this context, we consider a market maker who stands ready to buy and sell stock on a regular and continuous basis at a publicly quoted price, and identifies the strategies that maximize their P&L penalized by their inventory. An extension of the methodology is proposed to solve market-making problems where the orders arrivals are modeled using Hawkes processes with exponential kernel.

We apply the theory of Markov Decision Processes and dynamic programming method to characterize analytically the solutions to our optimal market-making problem. The second part of the paper deals with the numerical aspect of the high-dimensional trading problem. We use a control randomization method combined with quantization method to compute the optimal strategies. Several computational tests are performed on simulated data to illustrate the efficiency of the computed optimal strategy. In particular, we simulated an order book with constant/ symmetric/ asymmetrical/ state dependent intensities, and compared the computed optimal strategy with naive strategies. Some codes are available on https://github.com/comeh.     

Effects of alternative sample space representations on the accuracy of auditors' uncertainty judgments

Elicitation of an auditor's uncertainty judgment for an account requires a focus on either possible audit values or possible book value misstatements. These alternative sample space representations are formally equivalent in that they differ by a known constant (i.e. book value). However, findings in the psychological literature suggest that such a framing variable may affect auditors' information processing when uncertainty judgments are elicited. This paper describes an experiment which measured the effects of alternative sample space representations on the accuracy of auditors' uncertainty judgments. In contrast with the psychological literature, significant judgment accuracy differences were not detected. Potential reasons for and implications of this result are discussed.     

An International Analysis of Historical and Forecast Earnings in Accounting-Based Valuation Models

Abstract:  In this paper we examine whether the valuation properties of historical accounting amounts, namely earnings and equity book value, differ from those of forecasted earnings for firms in 17 developed countries classified into six accounting regimes. We compare the performance of a historical model and a residual-income forecast model for explaining security prices. The historical model uses the book value of equities and actual historical earnings and the forecast model uses the book value of equities and analysts' forecasts of earnings in the residual income for estimating the intrinsic value of the firm. The results suggest that book values, historical earnings or forecasted earnings are value relevant in most regimes and countries examined. The forecast model offers significantly greater explanatory power for security prices than the historical model in the Anglo-Saxon and North American countries, Japan, Germany, and three Nordic countries. The explanatory power of the historical model is similar to that of the forecast model in the Latin countries, two Nordic countries, and Switzerland. We find that the forecast model performs similarly to the historical model where financial analysts' forecasts are noisy and analysts are less active. Further results indicate that the forecasted earnings are more value-relevant than the historical earnings in countries with stronger investor protection laws, less conservative GAAP, greater income conservatism, and more transparent accounting systems.     

Measuring the resiliency of an electronic limit order book

An electronic limit order book is resilient when it reverts to its normal shape promptly after large trades. This paper suggests a continuous-time impulse response function based on intensities, which formalizes resiliency in terms of a time-frame and probability of order book replenishment. This is then estimated for trading on an LSE order book, using an appropriate parametric model which views orders and cancellations as a mutually-exciting ten-variate Hawkes point process. Consistent with findings in the related literature, in over 60 per cent of cases, the order book does not replenish reliably after a large trade. However, if it does replenish, it does so with a fairly fast half life of around 20 s. Various other dynamics are quantified.     

The effects of the Asian crisis, corporate governance and accounting system on the valuation of book value and earnings

This paper examines the value relevance of earnings and book value in four Asian countries, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand, in the period surrounding the Asian financial crisis. Specifically, we examine the impact of the economic environment on the value relevance of book value and earnings. We also examine the effects of corporate-governance mechanisms and the type of accounting system together with the economic environment on the value relevance of accounting numbers. Our results indicate that the value relevance of earnings in Indonesia and Thailand was significantly reduced during the Asian financial crisis while the value relevance of book value increased. In Malaysia, the value relevance of both earnings and book value decreased during the crisis. In Korea, neither book value nor earnings was significantly impacted by the crisis. Our results indicate that the level of corporate-governance mechanisms has an impact on the extent of changes in the value relevance of book values, but not earnings. Specifically, the value relevance of book value declines when corporate governance is weak. Finally, our results indicate that accounting systems (i.e., IAS or tax-based) also affect the extent of changes in the value relevance of book value resulting from the crisis.     

Reclassification of Financial Assets under IAS 39: Impact on European Banks' Financial Statements

In response to the financial crisis, the IASB issued on 13 October 2008 an amendment to IAS 39 which enables entities to reclassify non-derivative financial assets held for trading and financial assets available-for-sale. This paper examines the influence of this controversial amendment on the 2008 financial statements of 219 European banks which apply IFRS. I find that approximately one-third of the sample banks have taken extensive advantage of these reclassification opportunities. The mean reclassification amount is 3.9% of total assets and 131% of the book value of equity, respectively. I further document that reclassifying banks avoid substantial fair value losses, and hence, report significantly higher levels of return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), book value of equity and regulatory capital. In particular, the mean ROE switches sign from a negative ROE of ?1.4% to a positive ROE of 1.3% due to gains from reclassifications. Overall, this paper documents a substantial impact of the amendments on banks' financial statements and suggests analysing these reclassifications with particular caution.     

Hybrid markets, tick size and investor trading costs

This paper shows how the tick size affects equilibrium outcomes in a hybrid stock market such as the NYSE that features both a specialist and a limit order book. Reducing the tick size facilitates the specialist's ability to step ahead of the limit order book, resulting in a reduction in the cumulative depth of the limit order book at prices above the minimum tick. If market demand is price-sensitive, and there are costs of limit order submission, the limit order book can be destroyed by tick sizes that are either too small or too large. We show that trading cost is minimized at larger tick sizes for larger market orders, creating an incentive to submit smaller orders when tick size is reduced. With a smaller tick size, specialist participation increases and specialist profit increases slightly for small market orders, and considerably for large market orders.     

A comparison of Merton's option pricing model of corporate debt valuation to the use of book values

Many studies use the book value of debt as a proxy for its market value because most corporate debt does not trade. I call this practice the book value of debt (BVD) approximation, and it appears to be justified by the observation that the average market value of debt is close to its book value. Many corporate bonds, however, trade at values significantly different from their book values, and consequently the BVD approximation can create important biases. I compare the accuracy of the BVD approximation to Merton's option pricing (OPT) model of corporate debt valuation, and find consistent evidence that the Merton model provides more accurate estimates. I also show that this model is an easily estimated alternative to the BVD approximation. In short, the BVD approximation not only creates significant biases, but it is also an unnecessary simplification.     

Trade size clustering and the cost of trading at the London Stock Exchange

For the London Stock Exchange, this paper investigates differences in trading costs between market maker (off-book) and order book trades, in the context of clustering in trade sizes and prices. We report several substantial findings. Even after controlling for differences in trade size, the realised spread measure is lower for off-book trades. For the order book, trade size clustering is not associated with differences in transaction costs nor with differences in the information content of trades. For the off-book market, trades in clustered (popular) sizes carry significantly more information than non-clustered trades. Despite the significant differences in the price impact estimates between the order book and off-book, we show that traders placing large orders off-book are still better off than trading via the order book as they benefit from a large discount from the current midpoint price. Additionally, we highlight that price and size clustering tend to occur simultaneously rather than being substitutes in this market setting.     

More on a statistical analysis of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes

In this paper, we extend the existing empirical evidence on the relationship between the state of the limit order book (LOB) and order choice. Our contribution is twofold: first, we propose a sequential ordered probit (SOP) model which allows studying patient and impatient traders’ choices separately; second, we consider two pieces of LOB information, the best quotes and the book beyond the best quotes. We find that both pieces of LOB information explain the degree of patience of an incoming trader and, afterwards, its order choice. Nonetheless, the best quotes concentrate most of the explanatory power of the LOB. The shape of the book beyond the best quotes is crucial in explaining the aggressiveness of patient (limit order) traders, while impatient (market order) traders base their decisions primarily on the best quotes. Patient traders’ choices depend more on the state of the LOB on the same side of the market, while impatient traders mostly look at the state of the LOB on the opposite side. The aggressiveness of both types of traders augments with the inside spread. However, patient (impatient) traders submit more (less) aggressive limit (market) orders when the depth of the own (opposite) best quote and the length of the own (opposite) side of the book increase. We also find that higher depth away from the best ask (bid) quote may signal that this quote is ‘too low (high)’, causing incoming impatient buyers (sellers) to be more aggressive and incoming patient sellers (buyers) to be more conservative.     

The impact of regulatory reform on the value-relevance of accounting information: Evidence from the 1993 regulatory reforms in New Zealand

This paper examines the impact of the 1993 financial reporting regulatory reforms in New Zealand on the value-relevance of accounting information. The study achieves this by regressing stock data of companies on book values and earnings for the pre- and post-regulatory periods. The Financial Reporting Act of 1993 was enacted in New Zealand as part of a wider package of company law reform. The 1987 share market collapse led to a Ministerial Committee of Inquiry that criticised the quality of financial reporting and the high level of non-compliance with accounting standards. The Committee recommended establishing an Accounting Standards Review Board to give the accounting standards a force of law. Whether this development increases the value-relevance of accounting information is an empirical question. The results, however, fail to find any significant increase in the total value-relevance of accounting information in the post-regulation period. There is, however, a corresponding increase in the incremental explanatory power of equity book values in the post-regulation period. This study also extends extant research on the effect of regulation on the value-relevance of accounting information by incorporating firm-specific factors to isolate the effect of regulation.     

Quasi-centralized limit order books

A quasi-centralized limit order book (QCLOB) is a limit order book (LOB) in which financial institutions can only access the trading opportunities offered by counterparties with whom they possess sufficient bilateral credit. In this paper, we perform an empirical analysis of a recent, high-quality data set from a large electronic trading platform that utilizes QCLOBs to facilitate trade. We argue that the quote-relative framework often used to study other LOBs is not a sensible reference frame for QCLOBs, so we instead introduce an alternative, trade-relative framework, which we use to study the statistical properties of order flow and LOB state in our data. We also uncover an empirical universality: although the distributions that describe order flow and LOB state vary considerably across days, a simple, linear rescaling causes them to collapse onto a single curve. Motivated by this finding, we propose a semi-parametric model of order flow and LOB state for a single trading day. Our model provides similar performance to that of parametric curve-fitting techniques but is simpler to compute and faster to implement.