人口红利、劳动力素质与中长期经济增长的关联

在我国经济增长方式转型情况下,劳动力年龄的人口规模、质量及其储蓄水平对未来经济增长具有重大影响。将人口特征变量引入对我国中长期经济增长的分析,结果表明,在人口红利逐渐消失和发展方式转变背景下,提高劳动力素质以强化直接影响是保障我国未来经济增长最有效的措施。     

1998年我国劳动力市场展望

一、1998年我国劳动力市场发展环境分析由于受我国人口年龄结构的影响,未来劳动力增长压力依然十分沉重。据劳动部门推算,整个"九五"期间都是劳动年龄人口增长的高峰期,劳动力资源供给将从"八五"时期的年均1870万人进一步增加到2030万人,即使扣除当年退出劳动年龄和丧失劳动能力的人口约950万,每年仍将净增劳动力1080多万人。随着市场     

山东省实现经济与就业和谐发展的思路探讨

山东省是一个有9000多万人口的经济大省,劳动力资源数量极其丰富。截止到2005年底,山东省经济活动人口5941.8万人,自20世纪90年代以来全省经济活动人口年均增长2.56%,年均增加124.8万人。劳动力资源供给数量增加取决于人口规模的不断扩大。"十五"期间,我省年     

劳动力有限供给、人口转变与中国经济增长可持续性

本文从结构转化视角分析"刘易斯拐点"和人口转变对于中国经济增长可持续性的影响.通过对跨国面板数据分析,结果表明:劳动力比率对资本形成率产生显著的正向影响,劳动力与资本的有效结合是人口红利得以发挥和经济持续增长的重要条件;总抚养比提高不利于资本积累,将对经济增长产生不利影响.中国经验数据分析显示:经济结构转化,劳动力跨部门转移,是中国经济得以长期、高速增长的关键,高投资率是该增长模式的必然结果;"刘易斯拐点"即将到来,农村剩余劳动力逐渐消失,人口年龄结构变化将使新增劳动力明显减少;如果继续保持较高的资本形成率,资本进一步深化,将使资本边际报酬率快速递减,现有的高投资增长模式难以维持,中国经济将逐步进入低速增长阶段.     

广西经济增长中的人口红利效应研究

广西人口红利期与全国比较,具有开启时间晚、潜在人口红利理论值小、持续时间短的特征。虽然实证分析结果表明广西的人口年龄结构变化确实使经济增长收获了一定的人口红利,但是丰富的劳动力资源所面临的供求失衡问题在相当程度上弱化了经济增长中的人口红利效应。广西还剩下不到30年的人口年龄结构"黄金时期",为充分兑现人口红利,政府应采取积极的政策措施,努力将潜在的人口转变机遇转换为现实的经济增长和财富积累。     

我国人口劳动力参与率偏高

在我国,劳动力是最重要的生产投入要素,也是我国在21世纪将遇到的最大挑战。怎样更好地利用现有的劳动力资源,促进国民经济的健康、快速增长,是当前我国政府必须下大力气解决的问题。劳动力参与率作为衡量一国劳动力市场活动水平的重要指标,不仅可以反映国家参与经济活动人口的规模和劳动力资源的利用程度,而且由于它是影响劳动力供给的关键因素,通过影响作为经济增长重要投入要素的劳动力供给量而作用     

我国的就业形式与对策

一、我国就业面临的主要矛盾 (一)劳动力供大于求的矛盾长期存在我国人口众多,劳动力资源丰富,且增长速度比较快,但经济发展水平低,速度低于劳动力人口的增长,在很长一段时间内,劳动力供大于求的矛盾相当突出,而且不会有根本性改变。我国人口从1978年的9.6亿到1992年增长到11.7亿,其中劳动力资源数从1978年的4.9亿到1992年增长到7.2亿,净增2.3亿。这种状况反映到就业上,不仅城镇有一批失业人     

后人口红利时代的经济增长

人口红利是指人口转变中的某一阶段出现充足供给劳动力和高储蓄率给经济带来的正面影响。人口红利之后将面临高老年人口比所导致的人口负债。本文在理论层面讨论人口转变与经济增长的关系,认为人口红利期劳动力增长和高储蓄率是经济增长的动力,人口红利期之后必须通过资本积累、技术进步和人力资源开发,才能保持可持续增长。研究了中国充分挖掘人口转变潜在贡献的现实困境,给出后人口红利时代的理性建议。     

壮大县域经济促进农业剩余劳动力转移

地域间转移是农业劳动力转移的重要途径,大力发展县域经济将更有利于我国目前国情下农业剩余劳动力的转移。一、目前农业劳动力过剩情况严峻我国是一个农业人口占70%以上的国家,"十五"期末我国有农业过剩劳动力2亿多,可以判断,随着今后人口增长和农业劳动生产     

深圳外来劳动力质量随机调查与思考

外来劳动力对深圳经济社会发展贡献很大,但深圳经济社会发展的现实是"GDP总量的增加与劳动力数量并非同步增加"。这是技术要素与劳动力质量提高的结果。重视劳动力资源的投入和资源开发,以提高外来劳动力的质量和充分挖掘劳动者的潜力,是深圳转变经济增长方式的重要内容。本文对深圳外来劳动力的基本情况进行了随机调查,以此论证劳动力质量与经济增长方式转变的关系,以及对提高外来劳动力质量提出相关思考。     

经济增长下的FDI、环境污染损失与人力资本

本文就中国的经济增长、FDI、环境污染损失与人力资本的关系问题,提出了7个待验证命题,并运用2000~2005年面板数据进行了验证。FDI促进了我国经济增长,但也增加了我国的环境污染。环境污染损失成为经济增长与吸引FDI的代价。高人力资本更利于经济增长,而且从质和量上利于吸收FDI,以及利于遏制环境污染,中人力资本也能在一定程度上促进经济增长,但吸收FDI的作用不明显,并且不利于遏制环境污染。整体上,我国已出现"污染避难所"现象。目前中国吸引FDI的核心问题已不仅是能否促进经济增长,而应更加关注如何避免FDI带来的污染问题。本文针对这一问题的核心建议是,促进高人力资本积累,继续大力发展高等教育。     

京族文化生态旅游开发可持续发展研究

广西京族文化生态旅游在具有得天独厚的资源优势的同时也存在发展滞后的现状和制约因素。为了让有限的资源发挥出应有的经济效益和社会效益,要从开发、利用、保护好广西京族文化生态旅游资源,促进民族旅游持续发展角度,探索出促进其发展的对策。     

经济发展要素对国民经济增长贡献的量化分析——以河南省为例

文章通过修正后的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,依据1998—2007近十年的河南统计年鉴数据,构建并导出了河南省国民经济增长模型。在此基础上运用现代计量经济方法测算了社会固定资产投资、社会劳动力资源投入以及信息化建设等主要经济发展要素对河南省国民经济增长的贡献,并科学分析了这些要素对河南经济发展的影响。     

The resource drag

Between 1995 and 2001, Jeffrey Sachs and Andrew Warner published a series of influential empirical studies examining mining and energy’s role in economic growth. Their principal finding was that economies heavily dependent on extractive activity in 1971 grew more slowly than comparable non-extractive economies over the next 19 years. This result has been deemed ‘the resource curse’. The result is generally robust across differing country samples and across extended sample periods. Many have sought to explain the phenomenon, but without unified success. Sachs and Warner suggest that crowding out of a sector or activity with production externalities is the most likely explanation. This paper demonstrates that the relatively slower growth in mineral and energy economies may simply reflect a resource drag whereby optimally managed per capita resource production does not grow substantially over time and hence introduces a drag on the measured growth of per capita economic output. If the resource curse is indeed only a resource drag, this has implications for trade and industrial policies implemented on the presumption that there are growth-reducing market failures associated with mineral and energy production.     

Health investment,physical capital accumulation,and economic growth

This paper analyzes the effect of health investment, and hence of health capital, on physical capital accumulation and long-run economic growth in an extended Ramsey model with an Arrow–Romer production function and a Grossman (1972) utility function. The paper concludes that economic growth is related to both the health growth rate and the health level. While growth in health capital always facilitates economic growth, the gross effect of health level on the rate of economic growth depends on how it affects physical capital accumulation. If the negative effect of health on economic growth through its influence on physical capital accumulation is not taken into consideration, then health level has a positive effect on the rate of economic growth by improving the efficiency of labor production. However, since health investment may crowd out physical capital investment and thus influence physical capital accumulation, excessive investment in health may have a negative effect on economic growth. Empirical tests of these theoretical hypotheses using panel data from individual provinces of China produce results that are consistent with our theoretical conclusions.     

Public capital formation and labor productivity growth in Mexico

This paper addresses the important question whether public investment spending on economic infrastructure enhances economic growth and labor productivity in Mexico. Following the lead of the endogenous growth literature, it presents a modified production function which explicitly includes the positive or negative externality effects generated by additions to the public capital stock. Using cointegration analysis, the paper proceeds to estimate a dynamic labor productivity function for the 1955–94 period that incorporates the impact of the growth rate in the stocks of both private and public capital (as opposed to the flows) and the economically active population (EAP) (rather than the rate of population growth). The results suggest that (lagged) increases in public investment spending on economic infrastructure—as opposed to overall public investment spending—have a positive and highly significant effect on the rate of labor productivity growth. In addition, the estimates suggest that increases in government consumption expenditures may have a negative effect on the rate of labor productivity growth, thus suggesting that the composition of government spending may also play an important role in determining the rate of labor productivity growth. Finally, the findings call into question the politically expedient policy in many Latin American countries of disproportionately reducing public capital expenditures on economic and social infrastructure to meet targeted reductions in the fiscal deficit as a proportion of GDP.     

A note on policies for the oil and gas sector

Production of oil and gas in Indonesia has fallen steadily during the last decade, owing to a combination of reduced exploration efforts and natural decline in currently producing fields. To counter-balance declining reserves in mature oil fields and a lack of expansion of known natural gas reserves, policy makers are now pursuing exploration initiatives more energetically. However, producers have expressed deep concern about the prospects for fair cost-recovery rules, and about the legal and regulatory environment more generally. Three issues are particularly relevant to the investment climate: resource nationalism; the anti-corruption drive; and decentralisation. Steps that the government could take include stemming the erosion of fiscal terms in contracts and ensuring contract sanctity. And although economic nationalists will find it hard to accept, maximising the benefits to the Indonesian people of exploiting the nation's hydrocarbon resources will require the presence of the world's most efficient operators.     

Population policy in South Africa: a critical perspective

The argument in this article is that population growth and the concept of balancing resources against population growth is flawed when the context, in this case South Africa, is gross inequalities in resource distribution. The fact is that causes of poverty are located in the social and political structures which give people unequal access to existing resources or international aid. Population trends reflect the mode of production of that society. It is argued that the Malthusian law of population and the theory of demographic transition is ahistorical and inaccurate. The theory does not explain why population growth rates change. In South Africa, fertility reflects lack of control over one's life and poverty. Migrant labor in South Africa undermined normal social institutions and disrupted family life. Government has emphasized a fear of a future population crisis because of resource shortages and a fear of the growing black population. The South African population development program is extracted and discussed. Questions are raised about the theory of demographic transition, the way resource allocation is ascertained, the relationship between resources and population in a specific area, and the relationship between population growth and development in general. The theory of demographic transition is examined and the Western influences which contributed to population growth through requests for changes in sexual mores and the effects of colonization. When demographic transition theory postulates that mortality rates decline with industrialization as a result of access to medical care and an improved diet, it doesn't take into account the discriminatory health care allocation under apartheid, or the displacement of rural people from their land and undermining of the rural peasantry. Separate development has led to inferior schooling and lack of access to skilled employment. In discussing the availability of resources in South Africa, the question is raised as to whether there is an absolute limit to water, or whether water management or water conservation is at issue, as in the case example of the Transkei. What is economical reflects political decisions about national priorities when consideration is given to alternative strategies for increasing the water supply, or solving pollution problems. The potential to feed South Africans is substantiated, and the problems of maldistribution identified. In establishing the balance between family planning and development, the Population Development Program (PDP) expresses contradictory aims; i.e., seeking community involvement of a politically disenfranchised population. The concept of overpopulation and the application of population control programs in South Africa does not address the problems of poverty and powerlessness.     

基于内生增长理论的煤炭资源对城市化的尾效模型

基于内生增长理论,构建了一个包含人均资本、煤炭资源和环境污染的经济增长模型,运用最优化方法计算出最优均衡解。在此基础上,利用城市化和经济增长的半对数关系,推导出煤炭资源约束对城市化的尾效模型。通过分析得出,要减小煤炭资源对城市化的尾效,必须依靠技术进步,控制污染,减小煤炭资源和污染的产出弹性。     

基于经济增长方式的人力资源开发浅析

作为世界第一人口大国的中国,其丰富的人力资源为社会发展做出了卓越的贡献,而没有经济增长方式的转变,人力资源开发工作很可能会失去目标,同时没有转变经济增长方式带来的经济、社会效益,人力资源开发工作也会缺少一个巨大的推力,其进程必将受到限制。本文是从经济增长方式的内涵、人力资源开发的内涵、转变经济增长方式对人力资源开发的影响进行阐述的。