Mean-Variance Optimal Reinsurance Arrangements

Reinsurance reduces the risk but it also reduces the potential profit. The aim of the paper is to derive optimal, from the cedent's point of view, reinsurance arrangements balancing the risk measured by variance and expected profits under various mean-variance premium principles of the reinsurer. We find that quota share, excess of loss or combinations of excess of loss with quota share are the optimal rules according to a fixed expected gain of the cedent     

Reinsurance Arrangements Maximizing Insurer's Survival Probability

The article concerns the problem of purchasing a reinsurance policy that maximizes the survival probability of the insurer. Explicit forms of the contracts optimal for the insurer are derived which are stop loss or truncated stop loss depending on the initial surplus, a quota to be spend on reinsurance and pricing rules of both the insurer and the reinsurer.     

Catastrophe Bonds,Reinsurance, and the Optimal Collateralization of Risk Transfer

Catastrophe bonds feature full collateralization of the underlying risk transfer and thus abandon the reinsurance principle of economizing on collateral through diversification of risk transfer. Our analysis demonstrates that this feature places limits on catastrophe bond penetration, even if the structure possesses frictional cost advantages over reinsurance. However, we also show that catastrophe bonds have important uses when buyers and reinsurers cannot contract over the division of assets in the event of insolvency and, more generally, cannot write contracts with a full menu of state‐contingent payments. In this environment, segregation of collateral—in the form of multiple reinsurance companies, as well as catastrophe bond vehicles—can ameliorate inefficiencies due to reinsurance contracting constraints by improving welfare for those exposed to default risk. Numerical simulation illustrates how catastrophe bonds improve efficiency in market niches with correlated risks, or with uneven exposure of buyers to reinsurer default.     

The Tail Stein's Identity with Applications to Risk Measures

In this article, we examine a generalized version of an identity made famous by Stein, who constructed the so-called Stein's Lemma in the special case of a normal distribution. Other works followed to extend the lemma to the larger class of elliptical distributions. The lemma has had many applications in statistics, finance, insurance, and actuarial science. In an attempt to broaden the application of this generalized identity, we consider the version in the case where we investigate only the tail portion of the distribution of a random variable. Understanding the tails of a distribution is very important in actuarial science and insurance. Our article therefore introduces the concept of the “tail Stein's identity” to the case of any random variable defined on an appropriate probability space with a Lebesgue density function satisfying certain regularity conditions. We also examine this “tail Stein's identity” to the class of discrete distributions. This extended identity allows us to develop recursive formulas for generating tail conditional moments. As examples and illustrations, we consider several classes of distributions including the exponential family, and we apply this result to demonstrate how to generate tail conditional moments. This holds a large promise for applications in risk management.     

Optimal Proportional Reinsurance Policies in a Dynamic Setting

We consider dynamic proportional reinsurance strategies and derive the optimal strategies in a diffusion setup and a classical risk model. Optimal is meant in the sense of minimizing the ruin probability. Two basic examples are discussed.     

再保险业的风险管理探析

再保险业的风险特性决定了它是一个风险程度高、专业性强的领域，实施科学有效的风险管理是再保险企业经营活动的关键环节。因此，对完善的再保险企业风险管理系统的组成部分及其主要内容、对再保险业风险管理的主要技术手段进行了详细分析介绍。     

An Extension of Arrow's Result on Optimal Reinsurance Contract

We consider the problem of finding reinsurance policies that maximize the expected utility, the stability and the survival probability of the cedent for a fixed reinsurance premium calculated according to the maximal possible claims principle. We show that the limited stop loss and the truncated stop loss are the optimal contracts.     

The Uses and Abuses of Finite Risk Reinsurance

Finite risk reinsurance has become the subject of investigations, litigation, and possibly new regulation. This article provides an overview of finite risk solutions and products, describing their main features and their legitimate role in helping (mainly) industrial companies manage timing, funding, and insurance risks.
Finite risk solutions generally take the form of structured insurance products designed to help companies manage risks often regarded as exotic or "tail" risks, such as environmental or asbestos liability. Although such products are underwritten by insurance or reinsurance companies, they typically involve limited risk transfer (hence the name "finite risk") while providing the insured companies with a means of pre-funding their expected losses, or what is often called "pre-loss financing." Of course, companies could choose to self-insure such risks by establishing a reserve for future losses. But finite risk provides a more credible and transparent alternative—one that reassures investors both by capping the liability and eliminating the possibility for manipulation of reserves.
Abuses of finite risk products usually concern the degree to which transactions are accounted for, disclosed, and represented to investors as achieving "significant risk transfer" when there is little or no such transfer. In the authors' words, "Users of finite should ask themselves whether the transaction helps the financial statements clearly represent the true economic income and risks of the business and, if not, then consider not doing the deal."     

VAR and CTE Criteria for Optimal Quota-Share and Stop-Loss Reinsurance

Abstract

It is well known that reinsurance can be an effective risk management tool for an insurer to minimize its exposure to risk. In this paper we provide further analysis on two optimal reinsurance models recently proposed by Cai and Tan. These models have several appealing features including (1) practicality in that the models could be of interest to insurers and reinsurers, (2) simplicity in that optimal solutions can be derived in many cases, and (3) integration between banks and insurance companies in that the models exploit explicitly some of the popular risk measures such as value-at-risk and conditional tail expectation. The objective of the paper is to study and analyze the optimal reinsurance designs associated with two of the most common reinsurance contracts: the quota share and the stop loss. Furthermore, as many as 17 reinsurance premium principles are investigated. This paper also highlights the critical role of the reinsurance premium principles in the sense that, depending on the chosen principles, optimal quota-share and stop-loss reinsurance may or may not exist. For some cases we formally establish the sufficient and necessary (or just sufficient) conditions for the existence of the nontrivial optimal reinsurance. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate our results.     

BT模式下商业银行贷款的风险及其防范

“财富黑马”严介和以及他的太平洋建设集团一直都是业界关注的焦点。然而该公司最近频频遭遇多家银行逼债,公司及严介和本人能被冻结的财产已经被多家法院重复冻结数次,我们不禁要问,太平洋究竟怎么了?本文追根溯源,系统分析了太平洋集团赖以生存的BT模式及其特点,并对BT项目融资模式下商业银行贷款面临的风险及相关防范措施进行了深入探讨。     

再保险业务组合风险的实证分析

为了充分反映再保险业务线之间的相依性结构以及由此而产生的风险分散化效应,本文用完全正相关假设及学生t联接函数的3种形式来评估一个再保险组合的风险价值(VaR)和尾部条件预期(TCE),认为联接函数的选择对多业务线保险公司的资本需求和分散性效应都有明显影响。学生t类联接函数能够灵活反映多业务线之间相依性的联接函数,随着自由度的变化,可以模拟损失分布之间的不同相依性结构。     

新形势下企业财务风险的控制方法研究

在界定财务风险涵义的基础上,分析了新形势下财务风险的形成原因。认为财务管理环境的变化是产生新的财务风险的外部原因;财务管理系统功能不强、环境适应能力差是产生新的财务风险的内部原因。并在此探讨的基础上提出了以强化系统功能为目标的财务风险防范措施。     

Measuring Investment Risk Based on Tail Thickness

In recent years, both institutional andindividual investors have come to rely heavilyupon techniques for analyzing (defining andmeasuring) risk. In this respect, the issue thatcontinues to require the attention of academicresearchers and practitioners alike is how toconcisely define investment risk and, moreimportantly, how to best measure it. Selecting anappropriate risk definition involves trade-offsamong ease of measurement, forecast ability, andintuition of individual investors. The purpose ofthis paper is to present an alternative index formeasuring unconditional (or total) risk. Theproposed measure reflects behavior in general, andthickness in particular, of the lower tail of thedistribution of returns. We therefore argue itprovides a more useful and reasonable indexbecause, unlike measures frequently used, itsestimation depends upon the most relevant datafrom the sample distribution. We describe riskanalysis based on lower tail behavior and identifyits advantages over existing methods. Finally,using data of weekly returns to the CREF StockFund, we provide an empirical example toillustrate the technique.     

Optimal Regulation Under Uncertainty

This paper is concerned with the problem of price regulation when demand is uncertain. Uncertainty gives rise to substantial difficulties in determining both the return a firm's owners should be provided and a set of prices capable of producing that return. We argue that conventional approaches to price regulation are incapable of attaining the economically desirable objectives of efficiency and an equitable return to investors. The deficiencies in current practices are attributable to the separation of the risk measurement-return determination and price setting activities in the conventional approach. We present a model of the regulated firm that synthesizes contemporary financial market theory and the theory of the firm under uncertainty. ¹ 1 A recent paper by Baron 1 furnishes an excellent review of a host of diverse issues involving the behavior of the firm under uncertainty and the role of financial markets.
In our approach, the income stream produced by the firm is valued ex ante in the financial market according to investors' perceptions and preferences over riskreturn characteristics. We portray the firm as producing risk and return by choosing among available production technologies to maximize its market value, given the prices set by regulators. Within this framework, it is shown that regulators can choose the lowest prices consistent with an equitable return to investors. We also show that prices so chosen induce the choice of the optimal technology by the firm.     

Intergovernmental Fiscal Arrangements and Provincial Consumption Risk Sharing in China

This paper utilizes a panel data set on two major fiscal reforms in China—the fiscal contract system (FCS) in 1980-93 and the tax-sharing system (TSS) after 1994—to examine how the various aspects of intergovernmental fiscal arrangement affect the ability of the fiscal system to facilitate risk sharing. The high revenue decentralization and the proliferation of extrabudgetary revenue items in the FCS generally weakened the central government's ability to support interprovincial risk sharing. This situation was reversed in the TSS period. In addition, the effect of central-to-local transfer (transfer-in) and local-to-central transfer (transfer-out) on risk sharing was asymmetric in the sense that transfer-out enhances risk sharing but transfer-in does not.     

对人身险再保险在寿险公司风险管理中应用的探讨

随着人身保险业务的不断发展,寿险公司面临非正常死亡风险、长寿风险、利差风险和特别承保风险.人身险再保险是寿险公司转移风险、防止责任累积过大的风险管理工具之一,主要分为比例再保险、非比例再保险和财务再保险三种类型.寿险公司应通过科学确定自留额、选择合适的分保方式、谨慎采用财务再保险来安排人身险分保.     

基于复杂网络的再保险市场系统性风险研究

近年来我国保险业快速发展,部分规模较大、复杂度较高的保险机构因与其他保险机构关联度高而居于再保险网络的核心,决定了再保险市场的系统性风险传播机制,对我国金融体系整体稳健性以及服务实体经济的能力具有重要影响,为此,迫切需要对系统重要性保险机构和保险业系统性风险进行识别判断。本文将再保险市场统计意义上的结论运用到风险传染动力学模型的构建中,使校准后的模型更贴近实际,研究了再保险国际化比率、破产阈值、紧急折价抛售系数、保险赔付占保险损失比率等因素对再保险市场稳健性的影响。运用最大熵理论解决了再保险交易对手方的信息不完全问题,寻求再保险转移矩阵和我国保险业发生系统性风险时总赔付额的临界点,研究发现我国的再保险复杂网络中有可能存在再保险旋涡,部分资金规模庞大且偿付能力充足的保险公司广泛进行再保险业务,导致风险集聚,但发生再保险旋涡的概率极其低,再保险复杂网络整体上十分稳健。论文探索了再保险市场的风险传播机制,论证了"联系太紧密而不能倒"的保险机构相比于"太大而不能倒"的保险机构,一旦倒闭对再保险市场稳健性的影响更大,为识别系统重要性保险机构,及早发现并防范保险业系统性风险提供了新的方法和思路。     

盯市风险下的期货套期保值

本文把盯市风险引入传统的期货套期保值框架，论证了在考虑盯市风险的情况下，一个关注每日最大亏损值的套期保值者会显著地减少他的期货头寸。在一个中期的套期保值期内，该套期保值者的期货套期保值头寸约为其现货头寸的80％。盯市风险的影响随着套期保值期的延长而缓慢减弱。如果套期保值者关注的是每日平均亏损值，在一个中期的套期保值期内盯市风险的影响极小。     

Optimal Risk Management Using Options

This article provides an analytical solution to the problem of an institution optimally managing the market risk of a given exposure by minimizing its Value-at-Risk using options. The optimal hedge consists of a position in a single option whose strike price is independent of the level of expense the institution is willing to incur for its hedging program. This optimal strike price depends on the distribution of the asset exposure, the horizon of the hedge, and the level of protection desired by the institution. Moreover, the costs associated with a suboptimal choice of exercise price are economically significant.