基金业绩排名与基金经理的冒险行为

本文利用2005-2010年间开放式股票型和混合型基金的数据,研究年度基金业绩排名对基金经理冒险行为的影响。与相对业绩排名激励机制会导致基金经理过度冒险的假设相一致,本文发现,年中业绩排名靠后的基金经理(输家)在下半年提高所持有资产组合的风险的程度要大于年中业绩排名靠前的基金经理(赢家)。进一步研究发现,基金经理提高下半年所持有资产组合的风险并不能显著提高下半年基金的业绩。特别是在熊市中,提高下半年所持有资产组合的风险反而显著降低了基金下半年的业绩。     

排名压力下的基金风格漂移实证研究

本文以中国2006年到2008年的所有投资基金为研究对象,考察基金在排名压力下投资行为的变化.研究发现,基金投资风格有集中的趋势,并且实际的投资风格与宣称的类别有较大的偏离.在风格漂移影响因素中,市场预期、前期的业绩排名是主要因素.研究还发现,业绩排名前后10％的基金风格漂移程度不同,排名靠前的基金表现出更为积极的风格漂移.在业绩排名压力下,排名在前的基金采取了积极的变换投资风格的行为,这对投资者是有利的.     

资产配置对基金收益影响程度的定量分析

资产配置是证券投资决策的首要环节,它可分为战略性资产配置及包括选时和选股在内的战术性资产配置.资产配置不但影响了基金业绩沿时间的变化,还对基金之间的业绩差异具有较高的解释程度.本文利用中国的市场数据,度量了资产配置对基金收益的影响程度.     

相对业绩差距评估对基金经理风险承担的激励研究

基金经理在选择投资组合风险时,不仅会考虑基金的业绩排名,同时会考虑基金业绩之间的差距,由此提出了业绩差距排名,并提出了新的实证方法,即线性回归的方法来研究业绩差距排名对基金经理风险承担的影响,同时验证了BHS结论在中国基金市场中的适用性。结果表明BHS结论在中国基金市场中是不成立的,同时表明在中国基金市场中基金经理具有相对业绩排名目标,但此相对业绩排名是本文中所提出的业绩差距排名,此结论可以为监管部门规范基金投资行为以及为投资者选择基金提供参考。     

我国基金家族风险调整行为的实证研究

本文选取我国2008年12月31日之前成立的偏股型基金,研究了2006年1月1日至2009年12月31日期间,基金家族内部基金经理根据每年前期家族内部业绩排名而对后期风险进行调整的行为,发现在基金家族内部前7个月排名靠后的基金,后期会显著增大投资组合风险,说明我国基金家族内部存在基金竞赛,即前期排名靠后的基金经理后期倾...     

组合搭配 兼顾操作灵活性

统计显示,在震荡市场背景下,基金业绩与大类资产配置相关度不高,2月份以来不同股票仓位水平基金间的平均业绩相差不大,分化更多来自管理人对个股、板块的选择把握能力。     

基金业绩归因与投资者行为

本文以2006年1月至2016年12月中国64家股票型主动管理基金为样本,从基金净资金流变化的角度,检验了投资者决策与基金业绩结构的关系,以期更好地理解投资者行为。本文结论有:(1)整体上,投资者在衡量基金经理能力时,更关注原始超额收益率或只基于市场风险调整风险敞口,这可能与中国市场投资工具仍然不够充分、风险难以有效对冲有关;(2)机构投资者相比个人投资者对风险敞口的识别更严格;(3)简单模型的优势集中在市场波动低、投资者情绪高的时期;(4)除基金经理能力外,净资金流变化对市场风险报酬也很敏感;(5)从alpha的角度,我国基金市场仍存在“赎回异象”,可能与“处置效应”有关,仍需提升投资者对风险的认知,引导市场形成更加科学的投资观念。     

基于基金经理更换的激励约束效应研究

本文以2005年至2009年为样本期,考察了基金业绩和内部治理机制在基金经理更换中的作用,以及更换后业绩和投资行为的变化。研究发现:业绩能够较好解释基金经理降职,但对升职解释不足。基金经理升职后,继任经理会改变投资风格,从而使得业绩能够保持;而降职之后,继任经理的投资风格和资产配置都发生了显著的变化,从而使得基金业绩在不增加投资组合风险的前提下得以改善。股权较为分散、股东间有效制衡的基金公司旗下的基金经理更容易被更换,但董事会制度与基金经理更换不尽相关。同时中资基金经理更换机制不如合资基金有效。所以,基金经理更换是一种较为有效但尚不完善的激励机制。     

机构投资者博彩行为的传染——基金竞争网络与彩票型股票资产配置

本文以我国2005—2021年开放式股票型与混合型基金重仓持股数据为研究样本,通过三维空间模型构建基金竞争网络,实证检验了基金竞争网络对基金经理彩票型股票资产配置的影响。研究发现,同业基金在彩票型股票资产配置上呈现出显著的一致性,意味着基金经理倾向于学习与模仿同业基金的彩票型股票资产配置策略。上述结论在考虑了外围基金的持仓变动、市场信息等因素的影响后依旧成立。潜在机制表明,在竞争激烈的环境中,基金经理面临更大的解雇风险,促使其博彩偏好上升,从而趋向于学习与模仿同业基金的彩票型资产配置策略。异质性分析表明,同业基金对彩票型资产配置策略的模仿行为存在“家族效应”与“同城效应”。该模仿行为与基金经理的性别、学历等个人特征相关,且在调仓情景下更显著。拓展性分析发现,同业竞争引致的彩票型资产配置可能进一步引发股价崩盘风险。本文为监管层理解机构投资者的博彩行为、制定合理的市场竞争机制提供了有益参考。     

基金投资风格的持续性研究:原因与结果

本文以2006至2010年期间所有开放式股票型非指数型基金为样本,实证研究基金投资风格的持续性以及基金转变投资风格的原因和结果。研究发现:(1)基金的大盘/小盘风格具有一定的持续性,但是价值/成长风格不具有持续性;(2)基金总体上并没有表现出明显的风格择时能力,而过去的业绩是影响基金投资风格发现转变的一个重要原因;(3)适当地改变大盘/小盘风格、适当地保持价值/成长风格有利于提高未来的业绩。     

Discount-Rate Risk in Private Equity: Evidence from Secondary Market Transactions

Measures of private equity (PE) performance based on cash flows do not account for a discount-rate risk premium that is a component of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) alpha. We create secondary market PE indices and find that PE discount rates vary considerably. Net asset values are too smooth because they fail to reflect variation in discount rates. Although the CAPM alpha for our index is zero, the generalized public market equivalent based on cash flows is large and positive. We obtain similar results for a set of synthetic funds that invest in small cap stocks. Ignoring variation in PE discount rates can lead to a misallocation of capital.     

Inexperienced investors and bubbles

We use mutual fund manager data from the technology bubble to examine the hypothesis that inexperienced investors play a role in the formation of asset price bubbles. Using age as a proxy for managers’ investment experience, we find that around the peak of the technology bubble, mutual funds run by younger managers are more heavily invested in technology stocks, relative to their style benchmarks, than their older colleagues. Furthermore, young managers, but not old managers, exhibit trend-chasing behavior in their technology stock investments. As a result, young managers increase their technology holdings during the run-up, and decrease them during the downturn. Both results are in line with the behavior of inexperienced investors in experimental asset markets. The economic significance of young managers’ actions is amplified by large inflows into their funds prior to the peak in technology stock prices.     

Exchange-traded fund ownership and underlying stock mispricing

In response to the increasing proliferation of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and a warning from the Wall Street hero Michael Burry that passive investing has put the stock market into ‘bubble’ territory, we examine the relation between stock ownership by ETFs and mispricing from 2002 to 2018. We find that increased ETF ownership induces overpricing in underlying stocks. We then identify three mechanisms for this relationship: the overpricing of stocks attributable to increased ETF ownership is stronger for stocks that experience an increase in passive ETF ownership; during periods characterised by high investor sentiment; and for illiquid stocks. Our results are robust to a battery of tests including alternative measures for all key variables and are not confounded by the global financial crisis. Additional analyses show that mispricing caused by ETF ownership change is not driven by firm fundamentals and does not exacerbate stocks' information environment around earnings announcement.     

What Determines the Domestic Bias and Foreign Bias? Evidence from Mutual Fund Equity Allocations Worldwide

We examine how mutual funds from 26 developed and developing countries allocate their investment between domestic and foreign equity markets and what factors determine their asset allocations worldwide. We find robust evidence that these funds, in aggregate, allocate a disproportionately larger fraction of investment to domestic stocks. Results indicate that the stock market development and familiarity variables have significant, but asymmetric, effects on the domestic bias (domestic investors overweighting the local markets) and foreign bias (foreign investors under or overweighting the overseas markets), and that economic development, capital controls, and withholding tax variables have significant effects only on the foreign bias.     

Retail Financial Innovation and Stock Market Dynamics: The Case of Target Date Funds

Target date funds (TDFs) are designed to provide unsophisticated or inattentive investors with age-appropriate exposures to different asset classes like stocks and bonds. The rise of TDFs has moved a significant share of retirement investors into macrocontrarian strategies that sell stocks after relatively good stock market performance. This rebalancing drives contrarian flows across equity mutual funds held by TDFs, stabilizing their funding, and reduces stock returns for stocks disproportionately held by these funds when stock market returns are relatively high. Continued growth in TDFs and similar investment products may dampen stock market volatility and increase the transmission of shocks across asset classes.     

Bank pay caps,bank risk,and macroprudential regulation

This paper studies the consequences of a regulatory pay cap in proportion to assets on bank risk, bank value, and bank asset allocations. The cap is shown to lower banks’ risk and raise banks’ values by acting against a competitive externality in the labour market. The risk reduction is achieved without the possibility of reduced lending from a Tier 1 increase. The cap encourages diversification and reduces the need a bank has to focus on a limited number of asset classes. The cap can be used for Macroprudential Regulation to encourage banks to move resources away from wholesale banking to the retail banking sector. Such an intervention would be targeted: in 2009 a 20% reduction in remuneration would have been equivalent to more than 150 basis points of extra Tier 1 for UBS, for example.     

Household portfolio optimization with XTFs? An empirical study using the SHS-base

XTFs are plain-vanilla Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) which replicate a broad, internationally diversified market index. We question, if XTFs can optimize the performance of households’ portfolios when taking multiple relevant asset classes into account, not only stocks. As opposed to most existing studies, we apply representative household portfolio data to estimate households’ portfolios. Households’ portfolios in our sample show similar compositions and can be grouped into one of three stylized portfolio compositions which exhibit asset class concentrations on cash/savings, mutual funds and individual stocks. For each stylized portfolio, we first investigate if an easily investable 60/40 stock/bond XTF portfolio which is risk-adjusted (including (de-)leverage costs) to the risk of the stylized portfolios, achieves higher returns than the stylized portfolios. This is the case for all stylized portfolios, even those with concentrations on cash/savings or mutual funds. Second, we examine risk/return-changes when replacing the entire risky assets of the stylized portfolios with the 60/40 stock/bond XTF portfolio including transaction costs. This leads to return enhancements in all stylized portfolios and particularly in the portfolio with high stock concentrations to risk reductions. Overall, we find that XTFs are generally suitable to optimize the performance of households’ portfolios under consideration of multiple relevant asset classes.     

How Does Size Affect Mutual Fund Behavior?

If actively managed mutual funds suffer from diminishing returns to scale, funds should alter investment behavior as assets under management increase. Although asset growth has little effect on the behavior of the typical fund, we find that large funds and small‐cap funds diversify their portfolios in response to growth. Greater diversification, especially for small‐cap funds, is associated with better performance. Fund family growth is related to the introduction of new funds that hold different stocks from their existing siblings. Funds with many siblings diversify less rapidly as they grow, suggesting that the fund family may influence a fund's portfolio strategy.     

Hedge fund performance attribution under various market conditions

We investigate US hedge funds' performance. Our proposed model contains exogenous and endogenous break points, based on business cycles and on a regime switching process conditional on different states of the market. During difficult market conditions most hedge fund strategies do not provide significant alphas. At such times hedge funds reduce both the number of their exposures to different asset classes and their portfolio allocations, while some strategies even reverse their exposures. Directional strategies share more common exposures under all market conditions compared to non-directional strategies. Factors related to commodity asset classes are more common during these difficult conditions whereas factors related to equity asset classes are most common during good market conditions. Falling stock markets are harsher than recessions for hedge funds.     

Liquidity Dry-ups in equity markets

This paper examines how mutual fund investors’ demand for liquidity provision endogenously affects stock liquidity in the equity market. We find that actively managed funds in the US tend to hold less liquidity than their respective benchmarks, which leads them to rely on only a small fraction of liquid stocks when it comes to liquidity demand. Using mutual fund sell transactions, we further show that mutual funds tend to sell more liquid stocks in their holdings when experiencing outflows. Concentrated sales of liquid stocks, however, significantly reduce the liquidity of these stocks, resulting in liquidity deterioration or dry-up among highly liquid stocks in periods of high market-wide liquidity demand. Overall, the results indicate that mutual funds fail to predict the liquidity of the asset at purchase.