Estimating welfare changes from efficient pricing in public bus transit in India

Three different and feasible pricing strategies for public bus transport in India are developed in a partial equilibrium framework with the objective of improving economic efficiency and ensuring revenue adequacy, namely average cost pricing, marginal cost pricing, and two-part tariffs. These are assessed not only in terms of gains in economic efficiency, but also in changes in travel demand and consumer surplus. The estimated partial equilibrium price is higher in all three pricing regimes when compared to the current price. As a result, consumer surplus falls in all three cases. The price increase is much larger with average cost pricing compared to marginal cost pricing or two-part tariffs, and hence a larger fall in demand and consumer surplus occurs due to average cost pricing. While there is a gain in economic efficiency from marginal cost pricing and two-part tariffs, this improvement comes at the expense of reduced public bus transit demand and consumer surplus, given the price inelastic public bus transit demand estimated for India. Given the mobility needs and the developmental concerns of a growing economy such as India, the challenge for policy makers is to balance the gains in economic efficiency in the public bus transit sector against other social, political, and developmental goals.     

Exploring the effectiveness of bus rapid transit a prototype agent-based model of commuting behavior

The introduction of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), typically involving the use of exclusive bus lanes and related bus priority measures, is increasingly advocated as a flexible and cost-effective way of improving the attractiveness of public transit in congested urban areas by reducing travel times and variability. These schemes typically involve the reallocation of road space for exclusive use by buses, presenting commuters with potentially competing incentives: buses on BRT routes can run faster and more efficiently than buses running in general traffic, potentially attracting commuters to public transit and reducing congestion through modal shift from cars. However, a secondary impact may also exist; remaining car users may be presented with less congested road space, improving their journey times and simultaneously acting as an incentive for some bus-users to revert to the car. To investigate the potential for these primary and secondary impacts, we develop a prototype agent-based model to investigate the nature of these interactions and how they play out into system-wide patterns of modal share and travel times. The model allows us to test the effects of multiple assumptions about the behaviors of individual agents as they respond to different incentives introduced by BRT policy changes, such as the implementation of exclusive bus lanes, increased bus frequency, pre-boarding ticket machines and express stops, separately and together. We find that, under our assumptions, these policies can result in significant improvements in terms of individual journey times, modal shift, and length of rush hour. We see that the addition of an exclusive bus lane results in significant improvements for both car users and bus riders. Informed with appropriate empirical data relating to the behavior of individual agents, the geography and the specific policy interventions, the model has the potential to aid policymakers in examining the effectiveness of different BRT schemes, applied to broader environments.     

How rural is too rural for transit? Optimal transit subsidies and supply in rural areas

The optimal supply of rail and bus in low density areas is studied by calibrating a demand and supply model with three modes (car, bus and rail) to an existing low density corridor. Varying the length of the network, the frequencies and the size of the populations, allows to study the trade-off between the consumer surplus losses of the public transport users and the transit operation and maintenance costs savings. We find that for an existing rail network, the optimization of frequency is the prime source of welfare gains. The rail network is marginally beneficial in the sense that keeping the network is welfare improving as long as there is no major repair or replacement investment needed. When population in the smaller towns decreases strongly, it becomes welfare improving to close the existing rail network but a bus service remains beneficial for at least part of the network.     

Shaping carpool policies under rapid motorization: the case of Chinese cities

Rapid motorization and fuel cost hike over the past few years have made carpool a new mode of travel in Chinese cities. But transportation policy makers have been rather ambivalent, if not indifferent, about carpool. Unlike cities in highly motorized societies, little is known about carpooling behavior in emerging economies such as China. This paper provides an initial discussion of carpooling in China by exploring a series of questions. What are the current practice and issues of carpool in Chinese cities? How do carpools in China compare with those in the motorized Western cities? Can carpools help Chinese cities mitigate the negative impacts of rapid motorization? Are foreign policies such as High-Occupancy-Vehicle (HOV) lanes transferable to China? Acknowledging the social benefits of voluntary carpooling, this paper argues: (1) bus lanes may be a better choice than HOV lanes when converting general motor vehicle lanes; (2) policies subsidizing carpoolers cannot be justified on either efficiency or equity grounds because a marginal carpooler is more likely transitioning from a transit user or non-motorized traveler than from a driver. Policy suggestions are proposed to Chinese decision makers.     

Basic economic principles of road pricing: From theory to applications

This paper presents, a non-technical introduction to the economic principles relevant for transport pricing design and analysis. We provide the basic rationale behind pricing of externalities, discuss why simple Pigouvian tax rules that equate charges to marginal external costs are not optimal in ‘second-best’ settings, and discuss the conceptual link between congestion pricing and road capacity. The final part of the paper is devoted to implementation paths for transport pricing policies. A simple numerical model demonstrates how different time patterns of constraints on pricing and capacity policy instruments may lead to different time patterns of efficiency along those implementation paths.     

The politics of congestion mitigation

Most research on congestion overlooks the political context of traffic congestion and congestion mitigation policies. While failed congestion policies around the globe are products of misguided premises and flawed analyses, they are also the products of political processes that emphasize highly visible congestion relief projects and programs over actually relieving congestion. Accordingly, this paper makes and defends four propositions. First, that public officials tend to exaggerate the consequences of (widely unpopular) metropolitan traffic congestion for political gain. Second, that (widely popular) public transit investments are unlikely to meaningfully reduce congestion. Third, that public officials can cynically use congestion as a rationale for funding for high-profile, politically-popular transportation (and, increasingly, public transit) projects. And fourth, that the experience to date suggests that various forms of transport and parking pricing offer the best hope for meaningfully reducing congestion in the coming years.     

The interplay between dockless bikeshare and bus for small-size cities in the US: A case study of Ithaca

As another mode of shared transportation, bikeshare can substitute or complement public transit. Prior studies mainly relied on self-reported survey data or aggregated station-level data from docked bikeshare systems, and their conclusions and implications were focused on large cities. It is largely unknown how and to what extent a dockless bikeshare system complements or substitutes public transit, especially in small cities. This study was set to measure the interplay between Lime dockless bikeshare and bus service in Ithaca, NY – a typical small-size college town – and its environs. By joining about 3.42 million records of bus stop data and 102 thousand Lime bikeshare trip data from 2019, two types of Bikeshare-Bus-Linkage (BBL) trips were identified, namely (1) the first-mile trip where a user rides a Lime to board a bus, and (2) the last-mile trip where a user bikes to their destination after alighting a bus. BBL trips were identified using a spatiotemporal proximity framework based on two important parameters: the catchment radius and the time window between a bus stop event and a Lime trip. Different values were tested with a sensitivity analysis, and the parameters were finally set at 100 ft. and 5 min. As such, 3026 BBL trips were identified, which was 3% of total Lime ridership or 0.1% of total bus ridership. Our findings indicated that Lime provided useful first- and last-mile transfers to bus service for commuters. The complementary effect was particularly strong in the urban core and with transit development and employment land use areas. Moreover, in the morning peak, there were more first-mile trips from residential areas to bus stops in the urban core, while in the evening peak more last-mile trips started from bus stops in the urban core to residential areas. Based on the unique first-mile and last-mile trip patterns identified, policy implications and recommendations for bikeshare operators, local government, transit agencies, and transportation policymakers were discussed to better integrate bikeshare and public transit.     

Design of limited-stop bus service with capacity constraint and stochastic travel time

This paper develops a mathematical model for the optimal stopping design of limited-stop bus service, which allows each bus vehicle to skip some stops. To better reflect the reality, this paper considers the vehicle capacity and stochastic travel time. Also, vehicles are all allowed to skip stops whereas any stop is not allowed to be skipped by two consecutive vehicles. A hybrid artificial bee colony (ABC) and Monte Carlo method is developed to solve the optimal stopping strategy. Finally, the model and solution method are validated by a numerical example, and a sensitivity analysis is performed on the passenger demand.     

Reducing road congestion: a reality check

For some little while now, transport policy seems to be focused on massive relative increases in public transport ridership and reduction of car use, resulting in a hoped-for reduction in road congestion. Starting with concerns with vehicle emissions as far back as the mid-1980s, and moving now into more of a focus on greenhouse gases and congestion, current transport policies are aimed at reducing two perceived externalities of increasing car use—vehicular emissions and congestion. This paper seeks to check the reality of these policy directions and question whether these are desirable, let alone achievable end states. The paper starts by looking at congestion and questions whether or not it is intrinsically bad. The negative and positive aspects of congestion are explored. The concepts of accessibility and mobility are discussed, particularly in relation to congestion and capacity increases, with the idea of trying to understand better what capacity increases or increasing congestion do to these two measures. The expectation must be that congestion levels are likely to continue to increase into the future, both as a result of increasing population and also increasing real wealth and changes in preferences. This section of the paper concludes that it is within the power of the market place to offset some of the negatives of congestion.In the next section of the paper, the potentials to increase public transport ridership are examined. An illustration is provided of the likely impacts of achieving a doubling in public transport ridership in a hypothetical city. It is found that the effects of such an achievement would be relatively small on the overall congestion of the road system, and that these effects would also be likely to be fairly short-lived. At the same time, the investments that would be necessary in the public transport system are enormous, and there is relatively little likelihood that one could achieve such an increase in ridership within current development patterns. The paper also addresses the potential of congestion pricing or road user charges to impact congestion. It is concluded that charging motorists a politically acceptable amount will probably still not make significant impact on overall system congestion, while the potential for serious impacts on the economy become large if the charges are made sufficiently high or the area covered is made sufficiently large. In the final section of the paper, a number of policy directions are put forward as suggestions for how to deal with the issue of congestion, capacity, and the declining share of market of public transport. These policy directions are not generally the ones that are being pursued today. The issue of congestion pricing is revisited, and a case is made for a kilometrage charge on road users to replace most current licensing schemes.     

Pay to drive in my bus lane: A stated choice analysis for the proposed Lincoln Tunnel HOT lane into Manhattan

This paper presents the findings from a stated choice (SC) analysis conducted in the context of proposed changes to the lane system in use for the Lincoln Tunnel crossing into Manhattan. Currently, the approach road (NJ 495) to the Lincoln Tunnel has six lanes, with three in each direction. During the weekday morning peak period, The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) operates a 2.5 miles exclusive bus lane (XBL) for traffic bound for Manhattan. The PANYNJ is considering creating, from existing lanes, a second XBL with the option for passenger vehicles to use it in return for an additional toll, in effect turning it into a high occupancy toll (HOT) lane. Such an approach to increase capacity and reduce congestion is unique nationally and this study looks at drivers' choices between using standard lanes, paying extra to drive on a HOT lane (the new XBL lane), switch to earlier or later departure times, or change their mode of travel. The analysis shows significant differences in the valuation of travel time savings between different population groups and also different departure time periods. The models also reveal a reluctance to change to other crossings, accept changes in departure time or switch to alternative modes.     

Understanding overall output efficiency in public transit systems: The roles of input regulations,perceived budget and input subsidies

This paper examines the combined effects of subsidies, regulations and perceived budget on overall output and technical efficiency in a sample of single-mode bus transit systems using an indirect production function. The main findings are that the average transit system is 67.21% output efficient and systematic and stochastic technical inefficiencies decrease output. In addition subsidies increase output, regulations decrease output and the overall budget effect is an increase in output. Additionally, it identifies the characteristics of two groups of transit systems whose perceived costs after subsidies and regulations are either less or greater than actual total costs.     

Optimisation models for the urban parking pricing problem

Parking pricing strategies are important tools for rebalancing the modal split between private car and transit systems in urban areas. Indeed, high congestion levels are mainly due to users' preference for the private car system. In order to obtain a more balanced modal split it is possible, together with an improvement in transit system quality, to set fees on the use of private cars through road pricing and/or parking pricing strategies. Parking pricing strategies are simpler, since they can be managed without adopting advanced technologies. In this paper some parking pricing strategies are proposed and some optimisation models are formalised.     

Investigating the impacts of built environment on traffic states incorporating spatial heterogeneity

Traffic state in the urban network is a direct reflection of the operational efficiency of the urban transportation system. As the busiest period of the day, traffic states during evening peak hours can effectively measure the capacity and efficiency of the transportation system. The primary objective of this study is to investigate how the potential factors affect traffic states during evening peak hours on weekdays. The geographically weighted regression (GWR) approach was proposed to model the spatial heterogeneity of traffic states and visualize the spatial distributions of parameter estimations. Four types of data including traffic state index (TSI) data, point of interests (POIs) data, road features data, and public transport facilities data were obtained from Shanghai in China to illustrate the procedure. According to the results, the GWR model outperformed the ordinary least square (OLS) model in the explanatory accuracy as well as the goodness of fit. The urban form was revealed to have a significant influence on traffic states and strong local variability for parameter estimations was observed. The number of public and commercial POIs, residential POIs, bus routes, bus stops, the average number of lanes, as well as average traffic volumes can significantly affect the traffic states spatially, and the estimated coefficients of each traffic analysis zone (TAZ) vary across regions. The conclusions of this study may contribute to making the planning and management strategies more efficient for alleviating traffic congestion.     

How does the propensity of living near rail transit moderate the influence of rail transit on transit trip frequency in Xi'an?

Many cities have made massive investments on rail systems to substitute transit for driving. Some studies have considered the confounding effect of attitudes in the connections between rail transit and travel behavior. However, they often focused on the average effect of rail transit and assumed that individuals' responses to transit improvements do not vary by their tastes. Using the 2014 data from Xi'an in China, this study explores the interaction effect between metro transit (heavy rail) and the propensity (i.e., predicted probability) of living in neighborhoods with metro transit on transit use. The propensity is positively associated with commute by metro transit and bus. Further, individuals with a strong propensity use transit equivalently no matter whether they live near metro transit, but metro transit tends to promote transit commute for those with a weak propensity of living near metro transit. Overall, building a rail line helps enhance transit ridership. Planners should also consider the variation in responses by individuals with different tastes when using policies to shape urban travel.     

Examining the influence of stop level infrastructure and built environment on bus ridership in Montreal

We studied transit ridership from the perspective of the transit provider, with the objective of quantifying the influence of transit system operational attributes, transportation system infrastructure attributes and built environment attributes on the disaggregate stop level boardings and alightings by time of day for the bus transit system in the Montreal region. A Composite Marginal Likelihood (CML) based ordered response probit (ORP) model, that simultaneously allows us to incorporate the influence of exogenous variables and potential correlations between boardings and alightings across multiple time periods of the day is employed. Our results indicate that headway affects ridership negatively, while the presence of public transportation around the stop has a positive and significant effect. Moreover, parks, commercial enterprises, and residential area, amongst others, have various effects across the day on boardings and alightings at bus stops. An elasticity analysis provides useful insights. Specifically, we observe that the most effective way to increase ridership is to increase public transport service and accessibility, whereas enhancements to land use have a smaller effect on ridership. The framework from our analysis provides transit agencies a mechanism to study the influence of transit accessibility, transit connectivity, transit schedule alterations (to increase/reduce headway), and land-use pattern changes on ridership.     

Air and high-speed rail transport integration on profits and welfare: Effects of air-rail connecting time

Air-rail integration has become a popular idea to relieve airport congestion and environmental impact of transport industry, especially amid the fast expansion of high-speed rail network around the world. This study examines the circumstances under which air-rail integration can be better justified, by focusing on the effects of reducing air-rail connecting time on transport operators' profits, consumer surplus, and social welfare. We show that while consumers always benefit from less air-rail connecting time (an integrated hub with seamless transfer between air and rail services is always preferred by passengers), operators of the two modes, air transport and high-speed rail, won't have an incentive to integrate unless the cost of integration is sufficiently low. Nonetheless, reducing air-rail connecting time enhances total surplus when the hub airport suffers from a certain degree of capacity constraint and the cost of air-rail integration is not too high.     

Evaluating transport user benefits and social surplus in a transport market—The case of the Norwegian ferries

The article first infers how consumer surplus in a market is linked to revenue under different assumptions about fare elasticity and when using different types of demand functions. This information is added to producer surplus in order to derive social surplus. The method, thus, produces a simple approach for authorities to assess social surplus in a market and its benefits to the users. A modified exponential demand function is applied to calculate consumer surplus and social surplus for 97 ferry services in Norway regulated by the state. The calculations are based on empirical data concerning ferry fare, revenue data at service level and reasonable assumptions about fare point elasticity for services covering different distances.In 2007, these services generated welfare for the users (consumer surplus) and the society (social surplus) amounting to about 5.8 billion NOK and 4.3 billion NOK, respectively. Consumer surplus and social surplus varied considerably amongst the services. Only 3 of the 97 services operate with positive profits and, hence, without subsidies. About 21 of the services contribute negatively to social surplus. Many of these unprofitable services are the only transport alternatives in rural areas and could be argued to continue operation according to politically decided regional measures. Implicitly, maintaining all these 21 services means that the welfare for the people in these areas is valued as up to four times greater than the welfare of the people in the rest of society.     

Exploring built environment correlates of walking distance of transit egress in the Twin Cities

Most studies on walking distance to transit stops either emphasize transit access or do not distinguish transit access and egress. Furthermore, environmental correlates of walking distance may differ by stop location. Using the 2010 Transit Onboard Survey in the Minneapolis and St. Paul Metropolitan Area, this study develops four models to compare the effects of the built environment around transit stops on walking distance of transit egress. Job density is negatively correlated with walking distance, consistent in all four models. Other built environment variables exhibit different impacts by stop location. Particularly, land use mix has positive impacts on walking distance for stops outside of downtown and suburban employment centers whereas job density is more important for suburban centers. Job accessibility and the number of intersections have significant effects on stops within downtown areas but have no significant impacts on stops outside of downtown areas. The number of transit stops has opposite impacts on walking distance for stops within and outside of downtown. Moreover, the built environment tends to have a larger impact on walking distance in downtown areas than non-downtown areas. We then discuss the implications for stop area land use planning and transit stop location choice.     

Key research themes on regulation,pricing, and sustainable urban mobility

ABSTRACT

This article considers both theoretical arguments and practical experience regarding a range of urban pricing and regulation policies, namely road pricing, public transport pricing and regulation, car parking policies, home and low-emissions zones, and regulation and subsidies to bring about cleaner vehicles. It concludes that effective urban transport policies require a consistently structured package of measures, and that the most urgent research needs surround the design of such measures to achieve their objectives while being financially sustainable and attracting public and political support.     

Resolving splits in location/allocation modeling: a heuristic procedure for transit center decisions

A heuristic procedure is developed to assign buses to transit centers (garages) in such a way that all the buses on a particular route are assigned to a single transit center. This research builds on an optimal mixed integer programming location/allocation model that splits the bus assignments when capacity limitations were reached at a transit center. The heuristic procedure adopts a two-step process: namely, assignment of all buses of a route to a unique transit center, then switching of routes to alternative transit centers to enforce capacity limitations. The procedure is shown to still provide cost savings over current locations and allocations for the Vancouver Regional Transit System (VRTS), Canada's largest urban transit network.