Mapping causalities of airline dynamics in long-haul air transport markets

The introduction of low-cost air transport services to short-haul routes has significantly shaped the structure of this market segment. Recent research investigates and discusses the transferability of the low-cost carrier business model to long-haul routes and identifies respective challenges such as lower cost advantages over the competing full-service network business model. Our paper complements the existing research with a review of airline dynamics in long-haul air transport markets and the subsequent development of a causal loop diagram of the transatlantic air transport market using systems thinking. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of specific characteristics regarding airline operations in the transatlantic air transport market to investigate the market potential of long-haul low-cost carriers competing with full-service network carriers in this market. We implement these characteristics in a causal loop diagram which comprises the most important elements of and causalities within the long-haul air transport market that affect the development of these elements. These include the generation of transatlantic air transport demand, passenger choice, and airline ticket price and fleet development. The causal loop diagram serves as a framework for qualitative investigation of the market potential of long-haul low-cost services. The paper proves systems thinking to be a feasible approach to map causalities based on knowledge from scientific literature.     

A method for reducing information asymmetry in destination–airline relationships

We propose a measure of business risk in air travel demand at the route level that can reduce information asymmetry during route development negotiations between tourism destinations and airlines. Aviation-exposed risk (AER) conveys information about the level of uncertainty with regard to air travel demand from an airline’s perspective. Using AER, tourism destinations and air service development teams can evaluate their risks from the perspective of the airline and its network. From there, an assessment can be made as to the value of air services in certain circumstances, including whether a direct underwrite or risk share between airlines and destinations is viable and necessary. By applying a portfolio analysis to an airline’s network, we find evidence that AER does indeed mimic the actual capacity distribution of the network. This provides support for AER as a useful risk measure to be used in practice.     

Introduction to the special issue: Air transport in the Global South

Research on the development and impacts of air transport has hitherto focused mainly on developed countries in the Global North, and relatively little on less developed countries in the Global South. The seven papers of this Special Issue of the Journal of Transport Geography aim to address this imbalance and encourage further research on air transport development in the Global South. In recent years, the Global South has witnessed significant changes in air transport networks and policies, with implications for economic growth, spatial development and airline business models. This Special Issue explores some challenges to air transport development in the Global South for countries in Africa, South America, the Middle East and Asia, including links between air transport and economic development, the evolution and key drivers of air transport growth and the spatial distribution of passenger airline networks, and the development and impact of low-cost carriers. It also identifies opportunities for future research in this growing area.     

The long-haul low-cost airline business model: A disruptive innovation perspective

This paper analyzes the impact of the long-haul low-cost (LHLC) airline business model on the air transport industry from a disruptive innovation perspective. We argue that the LHLC business model is set to stay; it is bound to penetrate the mass market that has, to date, been occupied by incumbent network carriers. It will thus lead to significant strategic adaptations in the long-haul air travel market where incumbents are well advised to prepare their responses. We provide a set of strategic response options along the categories of avoiding, accepting and embracing the LHLC business model that can be used by incumbents to defend their competitive positioning in the long-haul air travel market. This paper provides guidelines for airline managers to (re)evaluate the strategies of their own organizations facing the emergence of a potentially disruptive innovation in their industry.     

Boat or airplane? Passengers’ perceptions of transport services to islands. The example of the Greek domestic leisure market

Tourism is often the main economic activity of islands, making transport services vital. Recent research indicates that direct competition between air and sea transport tends to increase for the leisure market segment. This paper looks into the characteristics and perceptions of leisure passengers in an effort to identify the effect they have on modal choice. By examining the Greek Aegean region as a case study, the findings identify differences in passenger perceptions, which can influence modal choice and competition.     

The competitive landscape of air transport in Europe

Competition between airlines and airports increased significantly since the deregulation of the intra-European air transport market in 1997. The passenger has a wider choice in terms of routings and departure airports than twenty-five years ago and pays a lower price. In this paper we investigate in which parts of Europe airline and airport competition are most intense and how the competitive landscape has changed since the liberalisation of the intra-European market.Competition levels are modelled for all air transport markets available to consumers in each western-European municipality using a Multinomial Logit (MNL) model. This allows us to determine how competitive the air transport product available to consumers in each of those municipalities truly is and how competition levels have changed. As opposed to most other competition studies we take all viable direct and indirect flight alternatives into account, as well as competing alternatives from nearby (adjacent) airports. This makes it the most extensive analysis of competition in the European aviation industry performed to date.As expected the results show that airline competition, allowing for grouping of the airlines belonging to the same alliance together, has in general increased since the liberalisation of the intra-European market. This can mainly be ascribed to the rise of the low cost business model. The spatial analysis however shows an uneven outcome. Changes in airline competition are most pronounced in areas that were previously not well served, such as the more remote regions in the United Kingdom, Spain and Italy. In Germany airline competition is lagging behind due to the strong dominance of the STAR alliance. In large parts of Scandinavia, but also in parts of France and Spain, airline competition is considerably less. These areas are often served only by a handful of airports and/or airlines, limiting airline choice and therefore competition.     

A spatial analysis of air transport access and the essential air service program in the United States

In the United States, the goal of essential air service (EAS) is to provide a minimum level of air transport service from smaller, often remote communities to the national network. While supporters of EAS tout the economic benefits of connecting rural and isolated communities, critics cite high costs, low use and antiquated eligibility requirements as factors which compromise the value of the program. In this paper, a comprehensive database of US airports is combined with network analysis techniques and a geographic information system to evaluate population access (at the census tract level) to EAS airports for 2006. Results suggest that redundant coverage of EAS market areas by alternative Federal Aviation Administration designated hub airports can contribute to EAS airport market leakage and that alternative definitions of EAS community eligibility have the potential to dramatically increase programmatic efficiency and reduce federal monies spent on EAS subsidies.     

Unintended trajectories: liberalization and the geographies of private business flight

The global commercial aviation industry has undergone significant regulatory reform during the last 30 years. This paper explores something of the relationship between air transport liberalization and the growth of private business aviation and suggests that the sector’s development is largely an unintended consequence of the increasingly deregulated operating environment in that it has developed to overcome some of liberalization’s negative impacts, including delays, congestion, and perceptions of poor customer service. We argue that liberalization has created innovative market opportunities for private business aviation and illustrate how the sector’s operating models are facilitating new, as yet largely undocumented, forms of aerial mobility. The paper examines: the advantages of private business aviation over scheduled services; business strategies in the sector, especially the idea of fractional jets; the impact of new technologies, particularly the Very Light Jet (VLJ); and, finally, employs Europe as an example of the spatialities of private business aviation.     

The role of inter-island air transport in the Canary Islands

The Canary Islands depend almost completely on air transport for the inter-island distances usually exceeding 80–100 miles.¹ Apart from the transport of heavy cargo and that of low unit value by sea transport, the rest of the traffic tends to choose this means. What is more, tourism is developing in the main island and is highly dependent on air transport. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the quality of regular inter-island air transport in the Canary Islands, and how this is incorporated into the Trans-Insular Transport Axis as a social and economic integrating factor.     

Short haul business travel in the European Union: a segmentation profile

Business travellers tend to be charged a premium for the air services they consume due to the nature of demand, and therefore represent a potentially high source of revenue to airlines. Airlines are keen to secure and maintain executive travel business. The research investigates the short haul business air travel market in Europe, using a conceptual benefit segmentation model that addresses the industrial nature of the market. Three distinct market segments are identified; the schedule driven segment, the corporate cog segment, and the informed budgeter segment. A profile of these market groupings is given and implications for marketing strategy discussed.     

Mutual influence across routes using a common airport: The case of the domestic market in Japan

This paper empirically investigates the mutual influence of traffic volumes across routes serving the same airport. Regression analysis using the data on Japan's domestic air transport market reveals that an increase in passengers on a given route has a positive effect on the number of passengers on other routes that share an endpoint airport with the given route. This result implies that a change in policy for an airport is likely to influence routes that do not serve that airport as well as the routes that do.     

Air transport and tourism—Perspectives and challenges for destinations,airlines and governments

Air transport and tourism are interlinked. Tourism is a driving factor for and, in some cases, a stimulator of change in air transport; most notably the development of new business models such as charter airlines. On the other hand, air transport opened new destinations and tourism forms such as long-haul excursions. Here these interlinks are analyzed in a system model. For the strategic development of destinations, a clear airline policy and air access strategy seems to be necessary. For airlines an assessment and understanding of the business models of destinations is essential. By shaping the external regulative environment of air traffic, government may influence air traffic as well as tourism.     

Growth and internationalisation strategies in the airline industry

This paper analyses the international growth of the global air transport sector to identify factors that determine the emergence of transnational companies and different forms of international expansion in the airline industry. An analysis of the market structure is conducted to understand why traditional, full service airlines have adopted alliances and code sharing to internationalise their business, while low-cost carriers prefer more direct methods to enter new foreign markets.     

Airport ground access and private car use: a segmentation analysis

The increasing scale of, and demand for, civil air transport world-wide has resulted in a greater volume of people travelling to and from airports. The vast majority of these journeys are made by private cars, which has led to traffic congestion and raised levels of air pollution in and around airports. Subsequently, airports are re-evaluating their approach to ground access mode choice and considering how to reduce the reliance on private cars. Based on a survey of passengers at Manchester Airport in the UK, attitude statements pertaining to psychological constructs from the Theory of Planned Behaviour and the Norm-Activation Theory, combined with key factors relating to the passenger’s trip, are used to identify eight behaviourally distinct groups of passengers with varying potential to reduce their private car use. Two of these groups, described as the Conflicted Greens and the Pessimistic Lift Seekers, are identified as having the greatest potential to reduce private car use to airports. Analysis reveals the need for decision makers to address the existing attitude–behaviour ‘gap’ that can prevent positive environmental attitudes being translated into the use of more sustainable modes, as well as tackling the perceived difficulty some passengers associate with using these modes.     

Assessing the air cargo business models of combination airlines

Notwithstanding the fact that the air cargo business is generally a secondary one to the passenger business for combination airlines, it can have an important role to play in their profitability. However, growing challenges are threatening the market positions of the combination airlines. Improving their market positioning depends, amongst other factors, on appropriate business models. Yet, the literature on the air cargo business models of combination airlines is scarce. This paper aims to contribute to closing this gap.The research presented herein aimed to identify the representative business models of the combination airlines' cargo strategies. Three strategies have been considered. The research method included a series of structured interviews with key informants from combination airlines, namely: TAP Cargo, Brussels Airlines Cargo, SATA Cargo, Turkish Cargo, SWISS WorldCargo, Finnair Cargo, AF-KLM Cargo, Emirates SkyCargo, Lufthansa Cargo and IAG Cargo.The ten air cargo business models and the representative business models of each strategy are described. The results suggest an overlap between the business models of different strategies. In addition, the results show that an evolution in strategy does not necessarily require a redesign of the business model, but tailored changes in specific components.     

Passenger airline choice behavior for domestic short-haul travel in South Korea

When the Seoul-Busan line of South Korea's high-speed rail system, dubbed the Korea Train Express (KTX), entered service in November 2010, it was expected that this line would compete with air transport services for short-haul domestic journeys. Therefore this is a study about passengers' choice behavior when traveling short-haul domestic routes in South Korea. It utilizes MNL and NL logit models with selected variables, and the data required for the analyses were gathered through Stated Preference (SP) Techniques. The main SP survey was conducted for three weeks at departure lounges in Incheon International Airport in May 2012. The results reveal that fare, access time and journey time are significantly important with respect to passenger choice. The results further indicate that business travelers are more willing to pay than non-business travelers to reduce access and journey time. It is also noteworthy that reducing access time is more important than reducing journey time for short-haul domestic travelers. The conclusion is that it is significantly important for airline planners or local authorities that want to increase their local market share to invest in relatively fast access modes.     

The potential of horizontal collaboration in airport ground freight services

Since the global economic crisis of 2007–2011, the increasingly dynamic and challenging air cargo market in Europe has forced freight forwarders to improve their performance. In addition to improving their internal transport efficiency, they have also started to look at previously unexplored opportunities for horizontal collaboration in landside airport transport. The aim of this study is to reveal the potential of air cargo transport collaboration on a horizontal level, i.e. between multiple freight forwarders within a single airport. Reviewing existing literature on horizontal collaboration, with a focus on the air cargo industry, we propose a conceptual framework for transport collaboration in the air cargo industry. Based on a comprehensive study on air cargo transport movements within Schiphol, using a simulation model based on company data of 10,747 shipments (6977 tons of cargo) for a period of 30 days, we find several interesting results. Our main finding is that horizontal collaboration can improve the transport performance, by maintaining a high frequency of transport movements and maintaining an acceptable throughput time for air cargo shipments, and at the same time reduce transport costs by up to 40%. For smaller freight forwarders, the frequency of transport deliveries can even increase, while still allowing them to improve the average load factor of transport movements.     

Urban transport justice

Many cities in the world seek to establish more sustainable urban transport systems with a view to reduce accidents, congestion, air and noise pollution, and to improve social interactions, liveability and amenity values. Against this background, this paper frames urban transportation as an issue of justice: contemporary transport systems are characterized by injustice, as they tend to favour and prioritize motorized transport, accepting that considerable environmental and social burdens are put on more sustainable forms of transportation, other traffic participants and society as a whole. To conceptualize ‘urban transport justice’, the paper discusses three dimensions where injustices are apparent: Exposure to traffic risks and pollutants; distribution of space; and valuation of transport time. It is argued that public and political recognition of urban transport injustices provides significant argument for changes in urban planning, transport infrastructure development and traffic management.     

Airline competition on the route between Amsterdam and London

Although liberalization in European air transport business was formally completed with the implementation of the third package of the EU, today the free market effects of abandoning the bilateral system are not yet very manifest. The experiences in the United States indicate that it can last for over a decade before more or less stable competitive positions are set according to liberalized market conditions. The Amsterdam-London route was among the first routes which was liberalized on a bilateral basis. The development of airline competition on this route gives a rather good insight in what might be expected on other European routes the following years. In the ATRG paper, emphasis is laid upon the following competition characteristics: the number of airlines serving the London routes; the frequency offered by these airlines; the average aircraft size; the air fares charged. Special attention is paid to the relative attractiveness of the various airports in the Londen Area. Also the entrance of start-up carriers that offer no frills, no thrills services is covered.     

An assessment of air passenger confidence a year into the COVID-19 crisis: A segmentation analysis of passengers in Norway

The COVID-19 crisis has become the most intense and long-lasting in the history of aviation. There is already a significant literature on the immediate impact of the outbreak, as well as on speculation on the future evolution of the industry. This paper seeks to contribute to this discussion by assessing a year into the crisis the demand related aspects and passenger behavioural impacts of the pandemic. Specifically, the paper aims to identify discrete market segments of air passengers according to their shared attitudes and preferences about air travel in light of the COVID-19 crisis, as well as past behaviour and future travel intentions. To achieve this, we analyse data from a large (n = 2096) online questionnaire survey of air passengers in Norway. The cluster analysis identifies four distinct passenger segments, with each displaying varying attitudes, behaviours, and levels of concern about air travel. One of these groups, described as the ‘Apprehensive Elders’, were identified as having the highest level of concern about flying, and subsequently showed a sharp decline in their intention to travel in the future. Another group, termed the ‘Cautious Commuters’, showed similarly enhanced levels of concerns about flying, but maintained a high propensity to fly following the pandemic despite these concerns. Regarding possible interventions to increase confidence in flying in the future, across all segments the data shows a clear preference for more ‘traditional’ active interventions, including wearing of face masks and enforcement of physical distancing, over and above passive or technological interventions. Norway represents a valuable case as a possible signal for future policy and practice in relation to the recovery of air travel following the pandemic. The findings have important implications for air transport managers and decision makers in terms of managing the perceptions and expectations of different passenger groups as air travel begins to return.