Airline alliance survival analysis: typology,strategy and duration

Alliances have become the organization model of choice in many industries. This study uses data from the Airline Business annual surveys of airline alliances to test a proposed typology predicting survival and duration in airline alliances. The Rhoades-Lush typologies classified key activities of airline alliances by their level of complexity and resource commitment in order to suggest a series of propositions on alliance stability and duration. The results of our analysis indicate that alliances containing joint purchasing and marketing activities had lower risk of termination than alliances involving equity. Furthermore, alliances spanning more than two typologies showed lower risk of termination than one and two typology alliances. This is explained as the ‘strategy effect’ or in other words the tendency of alliances wide in scope to be more resistant to early termination.     

The impact on traffic,market shares and concentration of airline alliances on selected European—US routes

This paper examines the impact of airline alliances on traffic of the constituent airlines using an analysis of US Bureau of Transportation Statistics T-100 International Market Data on a monthly basis for five routes to the US from European hubs. The European hubs are Frankfurt and Paris. The period covered is January 1990–December 2003; a sufficiently lengthy period to enable the derivation of good time-series models before the ‘intervention’ of alliance formation and development. The alliances focussed on are Air France and Delta, part of the SkyTeam Alliance and Lufthansa and United Airlines, part of the Star Alliance. It is possible to distinguish code sharing agreements and then the subsequent immunity from US antitrust legislation. It is also possible to suggest some conclusions on the differences in alliance development in the more liberal open skies environments adopted by many European countries with the more traditional, stricter regulated bilaterals that exist in others such as the UK. Competition is examined using the Hirschman-Herfindahl Index so as to throw light on the impact of alliances on market concentration by route.     

Intermodal alliance and rivalry of transport chains: The air cargo market

This paper examines the effect of multimodal integration on the rivalry between two transport chains – a forwarder–airline alliance and an integrator – under the economies of traffic density. An improvement in multimodal integration by a forwarder–airline alliance would increase the alliance’s output, while reducing the integrator’s output, not only in the multimodal market but also in other markets of the cargo network. It would further increase the alliance’s profit, provided the intermodal improvement is not too costly, while reducing the integrator’s profit, and would likely improve both consumer surplus and total surplus. We also find that an alliance in general leads to greater market shares for the firms involved than outsourcing.     

The geographic effects of US airline alliances

Code-share agreements in the airline industry allow participants the opportunity to offer service to destinations they do not physically serve. This paper concentrates on the recently proposed domestic code-share agreements between United/Delta, Continental/Northwest, and American/US Airways, six of the largest commercial carriers in the United States. Changes in destinations served as well as geographic regions of dominance based upon market share are examined. The result is a clearer view of regions of dominance for each alliance in the United States. The proposed United/Delta alliance shows an expansion across the entire United States. The Continental/Northwest alliance allows the carriers to compete with the “Big Three”. The American/US Airways proposed alliance appears to benefit US Airways (US) more than American.     

Diversity in airline alliance portfolio configuration

Alliances in the airline industry operate as a basic strategy to stimulate competition and both the number and the types of alliances have increased over time. Each airline maintains alliances simultaneously with a variable number of partners. The set of airline's alliance partners constitutes its alliance portfolio. A central theme of these portfolios is the way in which partner selection improve performance. Is the alliance portfolio configuration based on either similar or different partners? We examine how the differences can arise from differences between the partners themselves, from resource complementarity, and from the partners structural positions in the network. The relations between these types of differences and whether they affect firm performance are studied. Codeshare alliances established between airline companies at a global level are analyzed to establish their effects on performance. In particular, the study comprises 135 alliance portfolios all of which from major airlines. The results suggest that structural homogeneity and complementarity improve performance and that alliance portfolio diversity favors network resource complementarity.     

The dynamics of airline alliances

This paper explains the dynamics of airline alliances. Using a system dynamic approach we shall first describe the driving forces behind the formation of alliances before going on to examine the inherent stability of alliances, both internally and externally. Understanding the dynamics of alliances can be useful in two ways. Outwardly, it can help in the thinking up of future scenarios which is something that is especially important to airlines that are looking for an appropriate alliance group but also for established groups looking for new members. Inwardly, such understanding is crucial as far as existing members of alliance groups are concerned when it comes to managing the alliance and achieving better performance.     

Investigating the effects of economies of scope on firms’ pricing behavior: Empirical evidence from the US domestic airline industry

This study investigates to what extent cross-product (belly cargo) output affects (passenger ticket) prices in the US domestic airline industry. The empirical analysis indicates that greater cargo volumes generally result in lower air fares, presumably as a result of the airlines’ realization of economies of scope. This magnitude of this price effect, however, depends on certain firm and route market characteristics. The findings of this study add to extant research on economies of scope, multi-product yield management and airline pricing and provide important insights for policy makers and airline managers alike.     

Air cargo alliances and competition in passenger markets

This paper develops an oligopoly model to investigate the effect of an air cargo alliance on competition in passenger markets. We consider a model in which the partners, while continuing to offer their respective passenger services, jointly offer a new integrated cargo service by utilizing their passenger aircraft and routes. We find that such an alliance will likely increase the partners’ own outputs, while simultaneously decreasing its rivals’ outputs, in not only the cargo market but also the secondary passenger market. Furthermore, the alliance is likely to reduce passenger prices and increase total surplus.     

Modelling strategic alliances in the wide-body long-range aircraft market

The wide-body long-range aircrafts market is characterized by increasing rivalry between Airbus and Boeing. One of the factors that drive their strategic behaviour is technological. We propose a technology indicator to identify conditions under which the aircraft companies have incentives to join a coalition. For this, we provide measurement of the side-payments necessary to sign a strategic alliance aimed at reducing technological barriers in the market. The results suggest that the existence of side-payments guarantees the stability of a strategic alliance if the gap in the technological level between the firms is high, or competition is through prices. For monopoly, a strategic alliance is profitable, but never stable.     

Systematic risk behavior in cyclical industries: The case of shipping

This study explores macroeconomic and industry-level effects on corporate systematic risk (or beta) for the international shipping industry. We document the extent to which stock market betas fluctuate over time in this asset-intensive and cyclical industry. Moreover, we analyze the fundamental determinants of systematic risk. We find evidence for high levels of systematic risk in shipping stocks, which match the fundamental risk characteristics of the industry (such as high financial and operating leverage). Shipping firms exhibit distinct industry-specific beta dynamics compared to firms from benchmark sectors or the average firm in the S&P 500 index. Changes in both economic conditions and industry-specific risk factors explain large proportions of beta variation in the cross-section of firms and over time.     

Determinants of information systems outsourcing in hotels from the resource‐based view: an empirical study

The objective of this study is to determine the factors affecting outsourcing of information system/information technology (IS/IT) activities in hotels from the resource‐based view of the firm. The factors considered are the conditions that the systems area resources must meet for that area to have a competitive value. The reasons, which are both strategic and tactical, are discussed. The former are mainly related to quality, improvement of service and concentration on core activities, whereas the latter are tactical or cost‐related reasons justifying the selection of the outsourcing strategy for this activity. The results indicate the factors determining IS/IT activity outsourcing are related to the creation of valuable resources and to market transaction costs, and the IS/IT area performance does not influence the decision to outsource. It is also shown that the reasons justifying outsourcing are strategic; related to the core competencies and quality of service and not to cost reduction. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of airline financial distress on US air fares: A contingency approach

This article investigates to what extent an airline’s financial distress impacts its pricing behavior. While prior research suggests that, on average, distressed airlines sell at lower fares, it is hypothesized that the magnitude of this effect may depend on certain firm and market specific contingencies. A large-scale empirical analysis using panel data from the US airline industry is conducted. The results indicate that firm financial distress and air fares are generally negatively related. It is further shown that the magnitude of the effect of distress on fares decreases with the magnitude of operating costs and firm’s market shares and increases with firm size and the level of market concentration. Implications for policy makers and managers are discussed.     

Multimarket contact, alliance membership, and prices in international airline markets

This paper tests the mutual forbearance view in the context of airline alliances in the international air travel market. Using passenger booking and airfare data on transpacific routes, we find consistent evidence for the positive association between multimarket contact and airfares. Our results also suggest that multimarket contact between non-aligned airlines is associated with higher airfares, whereas multimarket contact between airlines in the same alliance has no additional upward impact on airfares. Moreover, it is shown that higher airfares tend to exist when airlines have greater multimarket contact on open-skies routes. In restrictive (non-liberal) international markets, however, multimarket contact may not affect airfare.     

Investment into container shipping capacity: A real options approach in oligopolistic competition

We develop a container industry-specific real options investment model in oligopolistic competition taking into account endogenous price function, fuel-efficient investment, endogenous lead times, and endogenous price formation in the second-hand vessel market. We assess how optimal capacity is influenced by competitive intensity, number of players, volatility, fuel-efficiency, lead time, and cost. Moreover, we investigate optimal investment policies. We find that strategic action increases firm value and that it is worthwhile to consider alliances. Additionally, players in the market should consider retrofitting old vessels for fuel economy in economic downturns and using new, fuel-efficient vessels for capacity expansion in market upswings.     

功能型物流企业建立纵向联盟的探讨

针对两种物流市场环境下从事不同物流服务的功能型物流企业之间建立的纵向联盟,从企业的业务量、利润,以及市场价格的影响等方面进行定量分析,结果显示在两种市场环境下建立纵向联盟对联盟企业的影响是一致的,并且对联盟企业都是有利的,从而表明建立纵向联盟可以提高功能型物流企业的竞争力。     

The assessment of the EU–US Open Skies Agreement: The counterfactual and other difficulties

The advent of the EU–US Open Skies Agreement has been widely anticipated. A number of consequences have been predicted, for example, impacts on fares, on passenger volumes, choice and on consumer welfare. Airline costs are also predicted to fall as a result of increased competitiveness and increased cooperation among airlines. In the short period since the implementation of the Agreement, it is relatively easy to assess the supply-side changes that have been made, but more difficult to make wider judgements. For example, can traffic growth be attributed to Open Skies and does airline and alliance market power result in less fare flexibility with consequently less influence on changes in passenger volumes? Have airline costs changed and what has been the source of the savings? This paper offers some insight into the data that will be required to make these and other wider judgements and discusses some methodological difficulties.     

国铁企业员工持股实施路径探析

伴随着国有企业改革的深入推进,国家持续完善员工持股相关制度,不断扩大试点企业范围,支持和指导国有企业推进员工持股。通过阐述国有企业试点情况、国有企业试点属性、员工持股方案和员工持股平台等国有企业员工持股试点推进情况,从符合国家政策要求发展趋势、提升国铁企业市场竞争能力、适应国铁企业经营发展要求和激发国铁企业员工活力等方面,剖析国铁企业员工持股实施优势,提出国铁企业员工持股实施路径,即:争取国家政策支持,精选国铁企业试点,健全试点企业制度,制定试点操作方案,完善运作监管机制,提高国铁企业市场化经营的竞争力。     

Fifth freedoms and airline alliances. The role of fifth freedom traffic in an understanding of airline alliances

An analysis of fifth freedom operations in the Single European Aviation Market identified trends and patterns, which were found to be fundamental to understanding the rationale for airline alliances. Priority issues in achieving the sought after market coverage included the formation of alliances, the achievement of higher corporate strength levels and the quest for lasting and sustainable market positions. The development of a Route/Network Portfolio Management matrix permitted the exploration of strategies available to airlines for the creation of effective alliances towards these ends.     

Airline code-sharing and its effects on on-time performance

Although airline on-time performance has always received much attention, we are unaware of any empirical research that measures the on-time performance effects of domestic airline alliances. In this study, we empirically investigate the on-time performance effects of the largest domestic alliance—between Delta Air Lines, Northwest Airlines and Continental Airlines. We find evidence that code-sharing improves alliance partners' on-time performance and that the size of the codeshare effect on on-time performance depends on pre-alliance competition in a market, with the effect being larger in markets where the partners competed in prior to the alliance.     

The competitive landscape of air transport in Europe

Competition between airlines and airports increased significantly since the deregulation of the intra-European air transport market in 1997. The passenger has a wider choice in terms of routings and departure airports than twenty-five years ago and pays a lower price. In this paper we investigate in which parts of Europe airline and airport competition are most intense and how the competitive landscape has changed since the liberalisation of the intra-European market.Competition levels are modelled for all air transport markets available to consumers in each western-European municipality using a Multinomial Logit (MNL) model. This allows us to determine how competitive the air transport product available to consumers in each of those municipalities truly is and how competition levels have changed. As opposed to most other competition studies we take all viable direct and indirect flight alternatives into account, as well as competing alternatives from nearby (adjacent) airports. This makes it the most extensive analysis of competition in the European aviation industry performed to date.As expected the results show that airline competition, allowing for grouping of the airlines belonging to the same alliance together, has in general increased since the liberalisation of the intra-European market. This can mainly be ascribed to the rise of the low cost business model. The spatial analysis however shows an uneven outcome. Changes in airline competition are most pronounced in areas that were previously not well served, such as the more remote regions in the United Kingdom, Spain and Italy. In Germany airline competition is lagging behind due to the strong dominance of the STAR alliance. In large parts of Scandinavia, but also in parts of France and Spain, airline competition is considerably less. These areas are often served only by a handful of airports and/or airlines, limiting airline choice and therefore competition.