Hidden Economy – an Unknown Quantity? Comparative Analysis of Hidden Economies in Transition Countries, 1989–95

The study investigates the size of the hidden economy and related features, in post-socialist countries. After dealing critically with the approach of Kaufmann and Kaliberda, a method based on household electricity consumption is used to estimate the ratio of the hidden economy to the official GDP in 20 countries. Following a uniform growth in the size of the hidden economy in all the countries at the beginning of their transition, stagnation or further increase was experienced in the CIS countries, while an explicit declining tendency could be seen in the remaining economies. Comparisons show that the ratio of the hidden economy in post-socialist countries is significantly larger than in developed market economies. The paper analyses the relationships between the visible private economy, the advancement of reforms, corruption, and the size of the hidden economy.     

Cyclical Dynamics of the Turkish Economy and the Stock Market

Abstract

We analyze the cyclical dynamics of the Turkish economy and the stock market as well as their interactions. We use hidden Markov models that are robust to parameter instability arising from major shifts in economic policy, which have been typically observed in the Turkish economy. These models provide estimates of turning points for the growth, business, and stock market cycles. We identify three states of growth cycles and two states of business cycles in Turkey characterized by different mean estimates. We find that the economy went through five recessions since 1987. Crises are characterized by sharp drops in economic activity and are preceded by slowdowns. These crises are typically followed by strong recoveries during which the economy grows above its long-run average rate. We show that the Turkish stock market goes through three regimes having distinct risk-return dynamics. Bear markets associated with negative returns precede every recession with an average lead time of three quarters, suggesting that the stock market may be a useful forward-looking indicator of the Turkish economy.     

An Empirical Analysis Of Industrial Disputes: Evidence From Indian States

This paper investigates the determinants of industrial disputes using data for fourteen major states of India over fifteen years from 1981 to 1996. We document that other than purely economic factors (e.g. wages, provident fund and other benefits, and factory size); socio-economic, institutional, and political factors have significant impact on industrial disputes. This supports the political economic view of the trade union behavior. We also provide the evidence that liberalization of Indian economy has enhanced industrial peace. Region specific factors as well as the ideology and characteristics of political parties in power of the state governments influence industrial disputes. Fixed capital per employee and overall growth rate of per capita state domestic products has negligible impact on industrial disputes.

     

THE HIDDEN ECONOMY: STATE AND PROSPECTS FOR MEASUREMENT1

To know the size and development of the hidden or underground economy is important for policy making, mainly because the measures undertaken may be misdirected if they are based on biased official statistics. The hidden economy can be measured by considering indicators. The direct methods are based on voluntary surveys and on tax auditing and other compliance methods. The indirect estimation methods rely on the identification of residuals with respect to income and expenditures, as well as in the labor and money markets. The strengths and weaknesses of each of these measurement approaches are discussed and the resulting estimates of the size of the hidden economy are compared. A different approach to measurement is to look at the determinants leading to the existence and growth of the hidden economy. Finally, the method of “unobserved variables” allows the combination of the two approaches by simultaneously considering the determinants and indicators of the under- ground economy. The results show a considerable range of sizes for a given country and year. Though there is a broad range of size estimates, there is general agreement that the hidden economy's size has been growing for all countries over recent decades. Further progress in quantitative knowledge about the hidden economy requires the development of a theoretical model which analyses the interdependencies between the official private sector, the hidden economy, and the public sector.     

The hidden economy in Spain – A monetary estimation, 1964–1998

The aim of this paper is to estimate the level and evolution of hidden income in Spain during the period 1964–1997. To this end, we employ the well-known monetary approach which supposes that the hidden economy is a response on the part of the economic agents to the tax burden, one which manifests itself in an excess of demand for currency. The estimation has been made on the basis of the ADL technique, an ECM and Johansen's cointegration approach. The period chosen was characterised by multiple institutional changes, an increase in the tax burden and wide-ranging financial liberalisation. This has obliged us to formulate a specific monetary model to estimate the hidden economy and is one of the original features of that model. First version received: February 1999/Final version received: March 2001     

Modelling the hidden economy and the tax-gap in New Zealand

This paper develops and estimates a structural, latent variable, model for the hidden economy in New Zealand, and a separate currency-demand model. The estimated latent variable model is used to generate an historical time-series index of hidden economic activity, which is calibrated via the information from the currency-demand model. Special attention is paid to data non-stationarity, and to diagnostic testing. Over the period 1968 to 1994, the size of the hidden economy is found to vary between 6.8% and 11.3% of measured GDP. This, in turn, implies that the total tax-gap is of the order of 6.4% to 10.2% of total tax liability in that country. Of course, not all of this foregone revenue would be recoverable, as not all of the activity in the underground economy is responsive to changes in taxation or other policies. First version received: August 1997/Final version received: March 1999     

Size,trend, and policy implications of the underground economy

We study the underground economy within a dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium framework. Our model combines limited tax enforcement with an otherwise standard two-sector neoclassical stochastic growth model. The Bayesian estimation of the model based on Italian data provides evidence in favor of an important underground sector in Italy, with a size that has increased steadily over the whole sample period. We show that this pattern is due to a steady increase in taxation. Fiscal policy experiments suggest that a moderate tax cut, along with a stronger effort in the monitoring process, causes a sizeable reduction in the size of the underground economy and provides a positive stimulus for the regular economy. Both of these effects jointly increase total fiscal revenues.     

The learning path of the hidden economy: the tax burden and tax evasion in New Zealand

This paper considers the ‘learning curve’ relationship between the aggregate tax rate and the relative size of the hidden economy in New Zealand. Some simple non-linear models are estimated so that the effects of changes in the effective tax rate on the underground economy can be simulated. This study finds that about half of the hidden activity in New Zealand is a learned response to changing opportunities and constraints in fiscal policy, but this amount varies over the business cycle. Simulating a zero tax rate permits us to discover the ‘natural rate’ of underground and criminal activity. Some partial lessons are drawn for taxation policy in that country.     

中国经济体制的市场化改革:背景与沿革、现状与前瞻

文章对中国50年经济体制的沿革作了归纳,指出中国经济体制改革的背景是传统计划经济体制极大地伤害了中国生产力的发展,对中国经济体制的市场化改革作了现状与前景分析。     

Optimum government size and economic growth in case of Indian states: Evidence from panel threshold model

This paper investigates the relationship between optimum government size and economic growth using data of Indian states during 1990-91 to 2017–18. Our results derived from panel threshold regression model show a positive and significant impact of government size on economic growth within the estimated thresholds for both aggregate and sub-panels based on income and regions. Once the government size moves above the upper threshold level, then its impact declines and turns to be insignificant. Thus, our findings suggest the policymakers for maintaining the government size within the thresholds limit.     

促进中部崛起的科学基础与国家援助政策

本文在对“中部塌陷”现象进行深入分析的基础上,探讨了促进中部崛起的科学基础、战略目标和定位以及国家援助政策。作者认为,近年来中部地区出现的塌陷现象并非是全国最严重的,其“增长塌陷”不如东北地区,而“水平塌陷”不如西部地区。促进中部崛起是一项长期的艰巨任务,当前应针对中部地区的典型问题区域,实施有差别的国家援助政策。     

The Role of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Sustaining Growth With Stability in India*

The performance of the Indian economy in recent years has attracted increasing international interest. This paper focuses on the role of fiscal and monetary policies in the evolution of the Indian economy over the years, with particular attention being given to the reforms undertaken in these policies since the early 1990s. The coordination of fiscal and monetary policies has been crucial in the sequencing of the economic reform process carried out since the early 1990s. Monetary policy aims to maintain a judicious balance between price stability and economic growth. With the opening up of the Indian economy and the spread of financial sector reforms aimed at functional autonomy, prudential strengthening, operational efficiency, and competitiveness of banks, considerations of financial stability have assumed greater importance in recent years alongside the increasing openness of the Indian economy. The biggest challenge facing the conduct of fiscal and monetary policy in India is to continue the accelerated growth process while maintaining price and financial stability. Therefore, the self‐imposed rule‐based fiscal correction at both the national and subnational levels has to be consolidated and carried forward. The existence of a high level of fiscal deficit also contributes to the persistence of an interest rate differential with the rest of the world, which then also constrains progress toward full capital account convertibility. The success achieved in revenue buoyancy through tax rationalization and compliance has to be strengthened further.     

Dynamics of rural-urban migration in India: 1960-1981

"This paper analyzes a multi-sectoral simulation model of the Indian economy designed to isolate the sources of Indian economic growth and urbanization since 1960. The model shares many common traits with other computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation models, and its underlying framework is neoclassical. The model stresses spatial issues so that it can provide predictions on rural/urban labor demands, and hence on migration flows. The central issue we seek to evaluate is whether a neoclassical development paradigm can explain adequately the somewhat paradoxical patterns of urbanization and economic growth observed in India since 1960. Our conclusion is a qualified, affirmative response, based on the model's ability to replicate key macroeconomic variables."     

Corporate Islam,Global Capitalism and the Performance of Economic Moralities

Recent years have witnessed the rapid expansion of the Islamic economy, which by some estimates has reached a size of US$4 trillion. The growth of the Islamic economy presents an intriguing test case for the compatibility of global capitalism and moral – in this case specifically Islamic – principles. This article adopts a performative lens to draw attention to the role of the World Islamic Economic Forum and the Global Islamic Economy Summit as legitimation mechanisms celebrating economic diversity and the success of Muslim- entrepreneurs with the aim of increasing the visibility of the Islamic economy. Here, a polyphony of Muslim voices is sought to be consolidated into the voice of ‘business Islam’, with important implications for how the Islamic economy is conceived, defined and delineated.     

The hard shadow of the Greek economy: new estimates of the size of the underground economy and its fiscal impact

This article presents new estimates of the Greek underground economy and explores the link between the underground economy and aggregate debt. We show that the Greek underground economy has been underestimated heavily and has been on a rising trend again since Greece adopted the Euro. We also present evidence that the size of the underground economy is positively related to the debt-to-GDP ratio, implying that fighting the underground economy is also conducive to financial and macroeconomic stability. Our results suggest that for our sample of 11 EMU member countries, the loss of the inflation tax as an economic policy instrument had drastic consequences. While the underground economy did not have a statistically significant impact on aggregate debt before the introduction of the Euro, it has pushed up the debt-to-GDP ratio in our sample since.     

新疆循环经济发展水平评价

新疆经济是典型的绿洲经济,生态环境脆弱,而采掘业、制造业及化工企业的污染,使新疆生态环境面临巨大压力。为了实现经济增长和环境的双赢,近几年来,新疆一直倡导循环经济的发展模式,并且取得了喜人的成绩。通过构建新疆循环经济评价指标体系,利用主成分分析法,综合分析评价新疆经济、资源利用以及环境安全状况,以促进新疆地区循环经济更快更好发展。     

我国经济体制改革的回顾与展望

我国经济体制改革已有28个年头,取得了四大成就:一是市场经济引进多元化竞争;二是经济高速增长;三是人民生活水平普遍提高;四是中国的国际影响力和竞争力在提升.我国在深化改革中面临诸多的体制性障碍和结构性矛盾,可归纳为四大滞后:一是政府职能转变滞后;二是产权制度改革滞后;三是配套改革滞后;四是经济增长方式的改革滞后.我们要清楚地认识当前的形势,解放思想,坚定信心,做深化改革的促进派.     

四川省互联网经济培育研究

自1994年4月20日中国正式接入国际互联网以来,互联网就一直影响着我们的生活。在这二十年里,互联网催生了新技术、新产品和新业务,进而催生了新经济增长(互联网经济)。互联网经济正在成为中国及世界解决就业难题的重要支柱产业、正在成为中国及世界经济增长新的驱动力、正在成为中国及世界经济结构自发转型升级的重要催化剂。四川物产丰富,但交通不便,发展互联经济显得尤为重要。     

Size Does Matter: Technical and Scale Efficiency in Indian State Tax Jurisdictions

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used to measure tax efficiency in 15Indian states from 1980/81 to 1992/93. Tax efficiency is shown to be conditional on state gross domestic product (SDP), agriculture's share in state SDP,and a poverty index. The considerable remaining efficiency differences areattributable to the small size of some tax jurisdiction rather than to technical inefficiency. Multilateral Malmquist tax indices show that six of the states were consistently efficient, while three were consistently inefficient. Tax efficiency grew at an average annual rate of 3.9% until 1986/87, but growth ceased after that date for all but two states.     

Measuring the size and dynamics of U.S. state-level shadow economies using a dynamic general equilibrium model with trends

We use a two-sector dynamic deterministic general equilibrium model that specifically accounts for trends among time-series variables to estimate the size of the shadow economy for the 50 U.S. states from 1999 to 2019, following Solis-Garcia and Xie (2018, 2022). This paper improves on existing measures of the state-level shadow economy (such as the multiple indicators, multiple causes (MIMIC) methodology by Wiseman (2013a)). In particular, this new measure is based on theoretical foundations, extends the previous measure to include the Great Recession, includes dollar value estimates of the shadow economy, and produces considerably more variation over time and across states. Furthermore, we explore determinants of this new shadow economy measure using a panel vector autoregressive model and find that, on average, states with higher levels of economic freedom, lower regulatory barriers, and larger real GDP have smaller shadow economies. States with bigger governments, on average, have larger shadow economies, and the effect of corruption on shadow economic activity is non-linear, with a positive initial and subsequent negative impact.