Productivity impact of drought tolerant maize varieties under rainfall stress in Malawi: A continuous treatment approach

Drought tolerant (DT) maize varieties have received massive support in sub‐Saharan Africa because of their potential to protect smallholder farmers against drought‐related maize yield losses. Using four waves of household farm panel data from six districts in Malawi, we examine the impact heterogeneity of this technology on maize productivity using a continuous treatment approach. We find strong evidence of positive correlation between maize yield and adoption of DT maize varieties. On average, an increase by one hectare in the area allocated to DT varieties increases maize yield by 547 Kg/ha representing a 44% increase from the average maize yield of 1,254 Kg/ha for our sample. Our findings give evidence that DT maize technology has potential to protect smallholder farmers against drought‐related production losses. Policies that promote increased allocation of maize area to DT maize hold potential to enhance food security. Smallholder farmers especially in drought‐prone areas should be encouraged to allocate at least one‐third of the maize plot to DT varieties while breeders continue with the efforts of breeding a DT variety that is not only drought tolerant but also adapted to all weather conditions. More importantly, the government should ensure provision of timely ex ante weather information to guide farmers on decision‐making with respect to maize varietal choices.     

Breeding for Africa's new smallholder maize paradigm

This paper describes the evolution of a newly emerging smallholder maize paradigm in southern Africa beginning in 1996. This new paradigm involves the breeding, extension, and adoption of a new generation of open-pollinated ‘flinty’ maize varieties that specifically address the needs of southern African smallholder farmers for seed varieties that can be replanted (recycled) and that resist drought and low fertility problems increasingly common in southern Africa. The described mechanism is the extension and breeding work of the Southern Africa Drought and Low Fertility programme (SADLF) of the Centro Internationale por la Mejoridad de Maize y Trigo (CIMMYT). This paper explains the devolution of southern African maize production in the past two decades from centralized large-scale producers to smallholder farms, signalling a shift in research and plant breeding needs. The research/extension approach described here had profound consequences beyond the technical benefits of screening maize varieties for tolerance to stress; it empowered small-scale farmers to become informed consumers of agricultural technology. The transformation of the smallholder from a passive consumer to one actively seeking the best opportunity and seed to produce food, create economic opportunities and address local social conditions is an important development in the history and sustainability of maize production in southern Africa, and one consistent with modern African history of economic liberalization in the global food economy.     

Information Barriers to Adoption of Agricultural Technologies: Willingness to Pay for Certified Seed of an Open Pollinated Maize Variety in Northern Uganda

We examine smallholder farmers’ willingness to pay for agricultural technology and whether information is a constraint to adoption of certified maize seed in Northern Uganda. The uptake of improved maize varieties by smallholder farmers in Uganda remains persistently low, despite the higher yield potential compared to traditional varieties. A recently growing body of literature identifies information constraints as a potential barrier to adoption of agricultural technologies. We used incentive compatible Becker‐DeGroot‐Marschak auctions to elicit willingness to pay for quality assured improved maize seed by 1,009 smallholder farmers, and conducted a randomised evaluation to test the effect of an information intervention on farmers’ knowledge of seed certification. Our results show that the randomised information treatment enhanced farmers’ knowledge of certified seed. However, using the information treatment as an instrumental variable for knowledge, we find no evidence of a causal effect of knowledge on willingness to pay, suggesting that even though farmers are information constrained, this constraint does not affect adoption of certified seed directly. Nevertheless, only 14% of sampled farmers were willing to pay the market price, which corresponds closely with actual observed demand for certified seed in the previous season. This suggests that there are other barriers to adoption than information and awareness.     

Market access by smallholder farmers in Malawi: implications for technology adoption,agricultural productivity and crop income

In Malawi, maize is the major crop and food staple. Given limited off-farm employment opportunities, much-needed increases in household income for improving food security must come from gains in agricultural productivity through better technology and more profitable crops. In the past, hybrid maize and more recently, tobacco were promoted by policy for increasing smallholder income. An analysis of determinants of adoption of these two crops and related income effects is presented. Apart from factor endowment and exposure to agroecological risks, differences in the household's access to financial and commodity markets significantly influence its cropping shares and farm income.     

Unpacking a crop diversity hotspot: farmer practice and preferences in Northern Malawi

Crop diversity is a key principle of sustainable food production systems. Yet, inter and intra specific diversification is declining in many regions of the world. In Northern Malawi, a participatory action research project (Soils Food and Healthy Communities) has conducted agroecological co-learning with farmers for over a decade, providing an opportunity to explore farmer management, crop choice and variety selection practices. Farmers who participate receive seed for 0.10 ha of on-farm testing for one growing season and then decide whether to continue to grow the crop. Cropping system diversity, management practices and traits associated with crops grown and lost were assessed through interviews with 198 farm households (757 fields). We found an average of 1.3 species per field and 4.0 crops per farm. This is almost twice the level of diversity in other reports from Malawi smallholder farms. Farmers cited a wide range of preferred groundnut variety traits, as well as concerns (namely, high labour requirements). Both modern and local maize varieties are being grown and those retained were often associated with early maturity or preferred grain quality traits such as storability. Overall, farmers at this Northern Malawi agroecology education site are growing diverse crop mixtures that include traditional as well as modern varieties of maize and groundnut.     

Adoption of improved maize varieties in the hills of Nepal

Maize (Zea mays L.) is the most important cereal crop in the hills of Nepal, where the grain is used for human consumption and the stover for animal fodder. Maize farms are small, and population pressure necessitates the intensification of existing farming systems. Maize research directed at developing technologies for maize production began in Nepal in 1965. In 2000, a survey was carried out in two districts to determine the current level of adoption of improved maize production practices. In each of these districts, remote and accessible village development committees (VDCs) were surveyed. Questionnaires were administered to 54 randomly selected households in each VDC. A Tobit analysis was used to determine socio‐economic, physical and technology factors that influence the use of improved varieties by farmers. All households use composted farmyard manure, and in the more accessible areas, urea as part of their soil fertility management strategy. Use of improved varieties was less than 60% for all VDCs and only 15% in the most remote VDC. In three of the four VDCs, adoption of improved varieties primarily occurred during the past 5 years. Based on a Tobit analysis, Khet land area, ethnic group, years of fertiliser use, off‐farm income, and contact with extension significantly and positively affected adoption of improved varieties. Farmers in VDCs in central Nepal reported lack of seed to be the major constraint to the adoption of improved varieties, while lack of knowledge of new varieties was the major constraint for farmers in the western VDCs. The results from this survey suggest that the strategy for improving the adoption of new varieties will differ depending on infrastructure and the socio‐economic conditions of the farmers in a given area.     

What does Malawi's Fertiliser Programme do to Private Sector Fertiliser Sales? A Quasi‐Experimental Field Study

Malawi implemented reforms to its Farm Input Subsidy Program (FISP) during the 2015/16 agricultural season that allowed certain large‐scale, private sector fertiliser dealers to sell subsidised fertiliser at their network of retail stores in select districts on a pilot basis. At the same time, small‐scale independent fertiliser dealers were excluded from participating in the pilot. We use a unique panel dataset of large‐scale corporate fertiliser dealers and small‐scale independent fertiliser dealers collected before and after the policy change to estimate the impacts of the FISP on those who participated in the pilot and those who did not, using a difference‐in‐differences estimator. Results indicate that large‐scale dealers who sold the FISP fertiliser under the pilot programme in 2015/16 did not have their commercial sales either crowded‐in or crowded‐out by the FISP pilot. Instead, the average volume of fertiliser sold at each of their retail stores increased by 59% due to an increase in subsidised fertiliser sales. Conversely, small‐scale independent fertiliser dealers who were not allowed participate in the pilot had their commercial sales crowded‐out by the programme. They experienced a 60% decline in the volume of commercial fertiliser sales on average at each store. This implies that the FISP reforms have mainly benefited large‐scale fertiliser dealers who sell 90% of the fertiliser in Malawi, but caused some harm to the many small‐scale independent fertiliser dealers who sell about 10% of the private sector's fertiliser in Malawi, but often operate their businesses in more remote areas.     

Smallholder Demand for Maize Hybrids in Zambia: How Far do Seed Subsidies Reach?

We add to an emerging body of literature on input subsidies in Africa south of the Sahara. Our analysis focuses on demand for seed, characterising smallholders with a high predicted demand for hybrid seed who were not reached by the subsidy programme. We use cross‐sectional data from the 2010 agricultural season and an instrumented control function approach to test the hypothesis that the subsidy on hybrid maize seed in Zambia is selectively biased. Consistent with other literature, we find that the subsidy is a recursive determinant of seed demand, but in 2010, its recipients had more land, more assets, and lower poverty rates. Findings illustrate the social costs of the programme as currently designed and highlight the need to build alternative supply channels if poorer maize growers are to grow hybrid seed.     

Technology adoption under seed access constraints and the economic impacts of improved pigeonpea varieties in Tanzania

Dry‐land legumes, well adapted to drought‐prone areas, have largely been neglected in the past despite the good opportunities they offer for income growth and food (and nutritional) security for the poor. This study evaluated the adoption and impact of two farmer and market‐preferred and disease‐resistant pigeonpea varieties that were developed and promoted in semi‐arid Tanzania. The new varieties were resistant to fusarium wilt, a fungal disease devastating the crop. However, farmers wanting to adopt new varieties did not adopt due to seed access constraints and under‐developed seed delivery systems. Adoption of new varieties is therefore analyzed using an augmented double hurdle model that allows estimating variety adoption conditional on seed access thresholds accounting for the additional information on sample separation. The study identifies the crucial role of seed access (local supply), extension, education, participatory decision making, capital, and household assets in determining adoption. The social economic benefits of the technology and policies for improved seed access were further analyzed using the extended economic surplus method (DREAM model). Even under restrictive assumptions, overall discounted benefits were found to be quite attractive, indicating the need for additional efforts to scale‐up the success story. Analysis of changes in research benefits from relaxing the seed access constraint showed that net gains would increase by up to 30% if farmer access to improved seeds can be assured. Smallholder farmers are the major beneficiaries along with consumers and rural net‐buyers who gain from productivity‐induced lower market prices.     

Smallholder dairy cattle feeding technologies and practices in Tanzania: failures,successes, challenges and prospects for sustainability

In Tanzania, milk production under smallholder farming systems is season sensitive, fluctuations of feeds in both quantity and quality being the major driver. A dry season decline in milk production of over 40% due to feed scarcity is a common phenomenon. Adoption of improved feed production, conservation and utilization technologies and practices in dairy farming communities is poor. This review work was based on a key question which states “Why is adoption of improved dairy nutrition technologies and practices in Tanzania still poor despite being promoted for decades?”. We have shown that major opportunities for curbing dry season animal feed shortage include on-farm optimization of production and use of high yielding pasture varieties including napier grass (Pennisetum purperium Schumach.) and leguminous fodder species. Crop residues in particular maize stover needs to be optimized for effective dry season feeding. The major reasons for low adoption of proven technologies include limited technical knowhow among smallholder dairy farmers augmented by limited extension services and technological costs. For enhancing sustainable uptake; we suggest promotion of on-farm research, public-private partnerships and dairy farmers’ cooperative associations. These are vital for facilitating smooth access to information, investment capital, reliable inputs and markets among the smallholder dairy farmers.     

Estimating the Enduring Effects of Fertiliser Subsidies on Commercial Fertiliser Demand and Maize Production: Panel Data Evidence from Malawi

Most studies of input subsidy programmes confine their analyses to measuring programme effects over a one‐year period. This article estimates the potential longer‐run or enduring effects of fertiliser subsidy programmes on smallholder farm households' demand for commercial fertiliser and maize production over time. We use four waves of panel data on 462 farm households in Malawi for whom fertiliser use can be tracked for eight consecutive seasons between 2003/2004 and 2010/2011. Panel estimation methods are used to control for potential endogeneity of subsidised fertiliser acquisition. Results indicate that farmers acquiring subsidised fertiliser in three consecutive prior years are found to purchase slightly more commercial fertiliser in the next year. This suggests a small amount of crowding in of commercial fertiliser from the receipt of subsidised fertiliser in prior years. In addition, acquiring subsidised fertiliser in a given year has a modest positive impact on increasing maize output in that same year. However, acquiring subsidised fertiliser in multiple prior years generates no statistically significant effect on maize output in the current year. These findings indicate that potential enduring effects of the Malawi fertiliser subsidy programme on maize production are limited. Additional interventions that increase soil fertility can make using inorganic fertiliser more profitable and sustainable for smallholders in sub‐Saharan Africa and thereby increase the cost‐effectiveness of input subsidy programmes.     

彭阳县玉米干旱风险评估与区划

［目的］彭阳县玉米种植区域广泛,但干旱灾害频发,常造成玉米减产甚至绝收。因此加强彭阳县玉米干旱灾害风险评估与区划有着重要的现实意义。［方法］利用彭阳县气象数据以及地形、土壤类型等数据,基于灾害风险评估原理,运用相关分析法、层次分析法,结合GIS技术对彭阳县玉米干旱灾害进行风险评估与区划。［结果］彭阳县北部及西部降水少,玉米干旱危险性较高,南部和东部降水多,玉米干旱危险性较低; 草庙乡土壤保水性最差,玉米干旱敏感性最高,白阳镇、城阳乡土壤保水性最好,玉米干旱敏感性最低; 新集乡、白阳镇、草庙乡耕地面积所占总面积最大,玉米干旱暴露性最高,小岔乡耕地面积所占总面积最小,玉米干旱暴露性最低; 白阳镇灌溉田比例最高,玉米防灾减灾能力最强,彭阳北部1镇3乡都没有灌溉农田,玉米防灾减灾能力最弱。综合来看,彭阳县西北部玉米干旱综合风险较高,西南部和东南部风险较低,其余地区以中等风险为主。［结论］玉米干旱灾害风险评估与区划是科学认识农业干旱的基础,为科学管理以及制定合理有效的防灾减灾方案提供科学参考。     

The roles of public sector versus private sector in R&D and technology generation: the case of maize in Asia

This paper reports the findings of a study whose objectives were to compare and contrast the public and private sectors in Asia in terms of their (1) estimated level of investment in maize breeding research; (2) germplasm outputs; and (3) nature and extent of roles played in the maize seed industry. Since the 1960s, yield gains, rather than area expansion, have fuelled increases in maize production in Asia. Yield gains, in turn, have been due to the shift in maize cultivation from mostly open‐pollinated varieties (OPVs) to mostly hybrids. This transition also shifted the locus of modern maize breeding research from government research organisations to private national and multinational seed companies. In countries where both the public and private sectors participated in maize research, private sector research investment far exceeded that of the public sector. With more aggressive marketing programmes, the private sector captured 89% of the Asian maize seed market in the late 1990s. National public seed research agencies (including universities and cooperatives) developed and produced more maize OPVs than hybrids, mass‐produced and distributed seed cheaply, addressed location‐specific production problems, and provided agricultural extension services. The private seed companies developed, produced, sold and promoted their own proprietary hybrids. The reluctance of the private sector, however, to address the needs of marginal maize farmers should encourage the public sector to continue playing an active role in maize research and development (R&D), seed production and modern maize technology dissemination, especially with adequate support from appropriate government policies.     

The influence of farm input subsidies on the adoption of natural resource management technologies

Farm input subsidies are often criticised on economic and ecological grounds. The promotion of natural resource management (NRM) technologies is widely seen as more sustainable to increase agricultural productivity and food security. Relatively little is known about how input subsidies affect farmers’ decisions to adopt NRM technologies. There are concerns of incompatibility, because NRM technologies are one strategy to reduce the use of external inputs in intensive production systems. However, in smallholder systems of Africa, where the average use of external inputs is low, there may possibly be interesting complementarities. Here, we analyse the situation of Malawi's Farm Input Subsidy Program (FISP). Using panel data from smallholder farm households, we develop a multivariate probit model and examine how FISP participation affects farmers’ decisions to adopt various NRM technologies, such as intercropping of maize with legumes, use of organic manure, water conservation practices and vegetative strips. As expected, FISP increases the use of inorganic fertilizer and improved maize seeds. Yet, we also observe a positive association between FISP and the adoption of certain NRM technologies. For other NRM technologies, we find no significant effect. We conclude that input subsidies and the promotion of NRM technologies can be compatible strategies.     

Ex Ante Evaluation of Drought‐Tolerant Varieties in Eastern and Central Africa

This study presents a model to estimate potential benefits of drought‐tolerant varieties of maize, sorghum and millet in Kenya, Uganda and the Amhara region of Ethiopia. In addition to the benefits from mean yield increases, the model takes into account risk benefits associated with yield‐stabilising varieties. Ex ante estimates provided for different drought zones and for different household types within drought zones of each country suggest that drought resistance generates substantial benefits from both mean yield improvements and yield variance reductions for both consumers and small, medium and large producers.     

Gendered impacts of fertilizer subsidy removal programs in Malawi and Cameroon

Gladwin's^** main contention is that women provide most of the agricultural labor in sub-Saharan Africa and because much of this labor is oriented to food production for home consumption, the effects of structural adjustment programs on them and the children they work to feed are likely to be different than on men who produce crops for commercial and export production. Her specific hypothesis for Malawi is that the removal of the fertilizer subsidy affects women farmers more than men farmers because it reduces fertilizer use on local maize. As part of the structural adjustment program, a major purpose of removing the fertilizer subsidy is to reallocate resources from food production for domestic consumption to cash crop production for export. In Gladwin's analysis, men farmers produce hybrid maize and tobacco for export and women produce the subsistence food crop, local maize. Gladwin's main contention is probably correct. For the Malawi case, the presentation does not support the hypothesis because two of the major underlying assumptions are inappropriate and the evidence provided is inconclusive. This comment proceeds by discussing the two assumptions and corresponding evidence. The purpose of this comment is not to contradict the hypothesis, but to clarify the Malawi situation and to suggest that a different analytical approach is needed in that context.     

Economic impacts of smallholder farmers’ adoption of drought-tolerant maize varieties

Drought and high temperatures are major threats to sustainable food production and consequently the livelihoods of the majority of Africans who depend on fragile agricultural systems. As a response to these threats, climate-smart agricultural technologies, such as drought-tolerant maize (DTM) varieties, have been developed and promoted on the continent. It is well-known that the adoption of improved technologies generally impacts positively on the wellbeing of adopters. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the impact of any technology or intervention is always an empirical question. Therefore, this study sought to determine the factors that influence the adoption of DTM and subsequently estimate how yield, commercialization intensity, and farm income are affected by adoption. To establish causation, we relied on observations from 200 farm households in the Northern Region of Ghana and estimated an instrumental variable regression. Consistent with findings reported in the literature, we found that DTM adoption is primarily driven by access to seed, extension service, labor availability, and location of farm households. In addition, we found that DTM adoption positively impacts on yield and commercialization intensity. The magnitude of impact is not trivial. For example, the yield of farm households increased by more than 150% (936 kg/ha) following DTM adoption. These results imply that policy-makers and development practitioners must support research and promotion of climate-smart agriculture to improve adoption and welfare indicators, such as yield and commercialization.     

Multi-Site Bundling of Drought Tolerant Maize Varieties and Index Insurance

Drought Tolerant Maize Varieties (DTMV) and Rainfall Index Insurance (RII) are potential complements, though with limited empirical basis. We employ a multivariate spatial framework to investigate the potential for bundling DTMV with a simulated multi-site and multi-environment RII, designed to insure against mild, moderate and severe drought risk. We use yield data from on-farm trials conducted by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and partners over 49 locations in Eastern and Southern Africa spanning 8 countries and 5 mega-environments (dry lowland, dry mid altitude, wet lower mid altitude, low wetland and wet upper mid altitude) in which 19 different improved maize varieties including DTMV were tested at each location. Spatially correlated daily rainfall data are generated from a first-order two-state Markov chain process and used to calibrate the index and predict yields with a hierarchical Bayes multivariate spatial model. Results show high variation in the performance and benefits of different bundles which depend on the maize variety, the risk layer insured, and the type of environment, with high chances of selecting a sub-optimal and unattractive contract. We find that complementing RII with a specific DTMV produces contracts with lower premiums and higher guaranteed returns especially in dry lowland increasing the chances of scaling up RII within this environment.     

Production Risks and Food Security under Alternative Technology Choices in Malawi: Application of a Multinomial Endogenous Switching Regression

Employing nationally representative data, we investigate the impact of Sustainable Intensification Practices (SIPs) on farm households’ food security, downside risk and the cost of risk in Malawi. The analysis relies on a flexible moment‐based specification of a stochastic production function in a multinomial endogenous switching regression framework to correct for the selection bias stemming both from observed and unobserved heterogeneity. A quantile moment approach is used to estimate the cost of risk. After controlling for the effects of unobserved heterogeneity and several observable variables on maize production and downside risk functions, estimation results show that the adoption of SIPs increases food security and reduces downside risk exposure and the cost of risk. We estimate greater food security and larger reduction in downside risk from simultaneous adoption of both crop diversification (maize–legume intercropping and rotations) and minimum tillage, suggesting that there are complementary benefits from these practices. We find most of the cost of risk comes from exposure to downside risk. Our findings imply that in dealing with production risks development agents should encourage the adoption of agronomic and resource‐management practices along with other risk mitigation and food security improving strategies.     

A Case of Mistaken Identity? Measuring Rates of Improved Seed Adoption in Tanzania Using DNA Fingerprinting

Studies of improved seed adoption in developing countries are almost always based on household surveys and are premised on the assumption that farmers can accurately self-report their use of improved seed varieties. However, recent studies suggest that farmers’ reports of seed varieties planted, or even whether the seed is local or improved, are sometimes inconsistent with the DNA fingerprinting results of those crops. We use household survey data from Tanzania to test the alignment between farmer-reported and DNA-identified maize seed types planted. In the sample, 70% of maize seed observations are correctly reported as local or improved, while 16% are type I errors (falsely reported as improved) and 14% are type II errors (falsely reported as local). Type I errors are more likely to have been sourced from other farmers, rather than formal channels. An analysis of input use, including seed, fertiliser, and labour allocations, reveals that farmers tend to treat improved maize differently, depending on whether they correctly perceive it as improved. This suggests that errors in farmers’ seed type awareness may translate into suboptimal management practices. The average yield of seed that is correctly identified as improved is almost 700 kg per hectare greater than that of type I errors. This indicates that investments in farmers’ access to information, seed labelling, and seed system oversight are needed to complement investments in seed variety development.