THE INFLATION AND SUPPLY SIDE CONSEQUENCES OF DEMAND SIDE SHOCKS*

This paper outlines a small general equilibrium model derived under the assumptions of imperfect competition and non-constant returns to scale Cobb-Douglas technology. The model is used to simulate the short-run supply side effects of a demand shock. The simulation results reveal that demand shocks lower prices and result in positive supply side effects, which in turn strengthen the positive demand side effects on unemployment.     

A DYNAMIC ENTRY AND PRICE GAME WITH CAPACITY INDIVISIBILITY

Strategic market interaction is here modelled as a two‐stage game in which potential entrants choose capacities and next active firms compete in prices. Due to capital indivisibility, the capacity choice is made from a finite grid and there are economies of scale. In the simplest version of the model with a single production technique, the equilibrium turns out to depend on the ratio between the level of total output at the long‐run competitive equilibrium and the firm's minimum efficient scale: if that ratio is sufficiently large (the market is sufficiently ‘large’), then the competitive price emerges at a subgame‐perfect equilibrium of the capacity and price game; if not, then the firms randomize in prices on the equilibrium path. The role of the market size for the competitive outcome is shown to be even more important if there are several available production techniques.     

总需求和总供给冲击对我国失业和产出动态关系的影响分析

在我国的失业产出关系中,短期内,总供给冲击是产出波动的主要来源,总需求冲击则是失业波动的主要来源,总需求冲击和总供给冲击共同破坏了产出失业之间反向变化关系,但是总需求冲击的破坏作用更多一些。在长期,总需求冲击对产出没有影响,总供给冲击对产出有显著的正的影响,总需求冲击在长期对失业没有影响,但总供给冲击在长期会对失业产生不利影响,即正的供给冲击的累积影响所带来的产出增加在长期使我国的失业率上升。     

ENHANCING EFFORT SUPPLY WITH PRIZE‐AUGMENTING ENTRY FEES: THEORY AND EXPERIMENTS

Entry fees are widely observed in contests. We study the effect of a prize‐augmenting entry fee on expected total effort in an all‐pay auction setting where the contestants' abilities are private information. An entry fee reduces equilibrium entry but can enhance the entrants' effort supply. Our theoretical model demonstrates that the optimal entry fee is strictly positive and finite. In a laboratory experiment, we empirically test the effect of entry fees on effort supply. Our results provide strong support for the notion that a principal can elicit higher effort using an appropriately set entry fee to augment the prize purse.     

MIGRATION AND AGGLOMERATION WITH KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS*

In this paper, a Grossman–Helpman–Romer‐type endogenous growth model is developed that incorporates two regions and mobile workers. While the linkage between final goods firms and intermediate goods firms is strong, the linkage between innovation activities and manufacturing activities is weak in our paper. It is possible for the economy to reach either full agglomeration, partial agglomeration, or segmented agglomeration. We find that mobile workers acquire the highest welfare under full agglomeration. However, under segmented agglomeration, the welfare of skilled workers is not necessarily the lowest.     

GENERALIZED OLIGOPOLY DERIVED DEMAND WITH AN APPLICATION TO TAX INDUCED ENTRY*

Equations are derived for the factor demand of an N firm oligopoly for fairly general market demand curves and production functions. Free-entry is then introduced and it is shown that this may either raise or lower derived demand elasticity. This result is then applied to show that a unit production tax may encourage entry and so cause larger changes in price and quantity in the short run than the long run.     

贫富差距、供求弹性与房价*

近些年,中国的贫富差距和房价居高不下,但现有文献忽视供求弹性与贫富差距交互作用对房价的影响。据此,本文构建结合贫富差距和供求弹性的住房存量调整模型,使用中国2002—2012年7省份33个城市的UHS数据发现,收入和财富的基尼系数对房价有正影响;供求弹性对房价分别有负影响和正影响;收入和财富基尼系数与供求弹性交互项对房价分别有正影响和负影响。据此,为防止房价泡沫,各级政府一方面应缩小贫富差距,另一方面应增加土地和住房供给。     

公共征信机构建立的供求契机及境外实践

征信机构是重要的金融基础设施。结合若干经济现象与经济理论,本文研究表明,对于原生的建立机制而言,后工业化背景下的政府干预是一国建立公共征信机构的供给因素;金融体系的银行主导型特征为需求因素;而爆发重大经济、金融问题则是建立公共征信机构的触发点。公共征信机构是否与私营征信机构并存则主要取决于二者在市场定位、功能定位上的差异程度。当前中国坚持公共征信机构为主导的征信模式有其经济上的必然性、合理性。     

DOWNSTREAM R&D RIVALRY WITH SPILLOVERS AND DISCRIMINATORY INPUT PRICING

This paper examines how discriminatory input pricing by the upstream monopolist affects the R&D choices of downstream duopolists in the presence of R&D spillovers. We show that the monopoly supplier can benefit from a precommitment to uniform pricing because under uniform pricing the downstream firms invest more in R&D, leading to larger output and thus benefiting the supplier. When R&D spillovers are sufficiently large, the downstream firms are also better off under uniform pricing. Moreover, social welfare is always higher under uniform pricing.     

SOUTHERN INNOVATION AND REVERSE KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS: A DYNAMIC FDI MODEL*

We develop a general equilibrium model of endogenous innovation and foreign direct investment (FDI). In the benchmark model, Northern firms innovate with the help of localized spillovers, and a share of new products is transferred to Southern production via FDI. An increase in Southern imitation risk reduces this share. In the extended model, we permit higher‐cost Southern innovation, which yields inefficient specialization in both regions and reduces global growth. However, it generates a U‐shaped relationship between FDI and local imitation. We also allow for “reverse” spillovers in knowledge to Northern innovation, which partially restore global efficiency and growth.     

SHORT-TERM CONTRACTS REGULATIONS AND DYNAMIC LABOUR DEMAND: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

We present a dynamic labour demand model where we evaluate the impact of employment regulations on permanent and temporary employment. We consider three different kinds of regulations, namely firing costs, hiring costs and a constraint on temporary contracts. These regulations differently affect the size and composition of employment. The theoretical results are interpreted and questioned on the basis of empirical evidence on the employment effects of the regulation reforms that occurred in the major European countries in the period 1983–1999. The empirical analysis is based on a new set of time‐varying indicators on permanent employment protection, fixed‐term contracts and temporary agency work regulations. We find evidence in support of the hypothesis that fixed‐term contracts have been effective stepping‐stones to permanent jobs during the period under observation. On the contrary, flexible temporary agency work regulations seem to induce a substitution of permanent with temporary contracts.     

间接税对供需失衡的影响分析

从20世纪90年代后期开始到现在,我国同时出现了两个重要的经济现象,一是间接税高速增长,二是宏观经济供需失衡。本文通过建立一般均衡模型和实证分析,研究了这两种经济现象的内在联系,本文的结论是,征收生产型增值税同时抑制投资和消费,整体上对供需失衡的影响不显著;营业税由于税收容易转嫁、存在双重征税的原因,其增长严重强化了供需失衡局面;以消费为税基的税种全部是间接税,消费平均税率的提高强化了供需失衡局面。     

中国期货市场:过度供给和过度需求下的监管选择

监管经济学认为,监管是受基本供求关系影响的一种产品。我国的金融管制目标、期货市场内生性、法律不完备性、投资者非理性等造成过度监管供给,对期货的负面意识、对微观基础不信任等造成过度监管需求。供给和需求的双重影响决定了我国期货市场的从严监管导向。因此,自1999年以来,我国期货市场的监管一直侧重于规范,而不是发展。     

货币供应与通货膨胀的动态关系研究

本文通过实证研究发现,货币供应量的冲击无法有效解释我国通货膨胀现象,超额的货币供应并不是影响我国通胀的重要原因,而居民对物价水平的预期却能解释未来通货膨胀的变化。因此,从通货膨胀治理的角度来说,调整货币供应抑制通货膨胀的作用非常有限,而通货膨胀预期管理也许更能起到平抑通货膨胀的作用。     

A NEW THEORY OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY AND EMERGENCE OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE FROM DOMESTIC TRADE

Abstract. In the paper a fixed learning cost is introduced into a framework with consumer-producers and transaction costs. The fixed learning cost yields a rate of return on the investment in individual specific learning and training which is increasing in its rate of utilization. Division of labor can avoid duplicated learning costs and generate economies of specialized learning. The tradeoff between economies of specialization and transaction costs can be used to explain concurrent increases in the extent of the market, aggregate demand, productivity, trade dependence, the degree of market integration, the degree of production concentration, diversity of economic structure, variety of different professions, each person's level of specialization, and the extent of endogenous comparative advantage and the emergence of international trade from domestic trade. This model explains demand and supply as two sides of the level of division of labor which is determined by a transaction cost coefficient. Hence, the demand law may not hold even for normal goods owing to complicated interdependencies between the level of specialization and demand and between the level of specialization and prices of traded goods. The extended version of this model with the CES function is used to endogenize variety of consumption in addition to the endogenization of individuals'level of specialization.