Fertility Decisions and Gender Differences in Labor Turnover, Employment, and Wages

A striking observation of the U.S. and other labor markets is the weak position of women in terms of job attachment, employment, and earnings relative to men. We develop a model of fertility and labor market decisions to study the impact of fertility on gender differences in labor turnover, employment, and wages. In our framework, individuals search for jobs and accumulate general (experience) and specific (tenure) human capital when they work. They can also increase their wage by moving to a job of higher quality. Labor market decisions (e.g., job acceptance and job mobility) may differ across genders: females that give birth may decide to interrupt their labor market attachment in order to enjoy the value of staying at home with their children. The model economy is successfully calibrated to match aggregate statistics in terms of fertility, employment, and wages. We find that fertility decisions generate important gender differences in turnover rates, with long lasting effects in employment and wages. These differences in labor turnover account for almost all the U.S. gender wage gap that is attributed to labor market experience by Blau and Kahn (2000, Journal of Labor Economics15(1), 1–42). The model also implies a very small role of tenure capital in accounting for wage differences between males and females (gender gap), and between females with and without children (family gap). Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E24, J13, J21, J31.     

HOW DO STATE INFERTILITY INSURANCE MANDATES AFFECT DIVORCE?

The technological developments in infertility treatments have increased the success of childbearing among women with impaired fertility. Fifteen U.S. states have mandated insurance coverage of assisted reproductive technology, thus subsidizing and increasing the use of the technology. We exploit the variation of mandates across states and over time to examine the relationship between state mandates and the likelihood of divorce. Using individual‐level data from the 1984–2008 Survey of Income and Program Participation, we find that women are less likely to divorce after the state adopts infertility insurance mandates. We find the effect is larger among women in their 40s, covered by private insurance, with a college degree, and without children. (JEL J12, J13, J18, I13, I18)     

WHY WAIT?: EXAMINING DELAYED WIC PARTICIPATION AMONG PREGNANT WOMEN

Despite the benefits of prenatal participation in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), many eligible women either do not participate or begin participation late in their pregnancies. Using recent nationally representative data, we find that more disadvantaged women are more likely to access WIC and, with some notable exceptions, to participate earlier in their pregnancies. Hispanic women, especially those with language difficulties, enroll in WIC later in their pregnancies. Early WIC participation, particularly among teenagers, is less likely among women experiencing a first birth and depends on the mother’s early recognition of her pregnancy. (JEL I18, I30)     

Why Do Women Wait? Matching, Wage Inequality, and the Incentives for Fertility Delay

This paper explores the interaction between wage inequality and the marriage and fertility decisions of young women. We develop an equilibrium search model of marriage, divorce, and investment in children that allows for differential timing of fertility. We show how patterns of fertility timing in U.S. data can be explained by the incentives for fertility delay implied by marriage and labor markets. We find that these incentives help explain both the cross-sectional relationship between women's wages and fertility timing and the changes over the past 40 years in married women's fertility timing and labor supply. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: J12, J13.     

TAXES,HEALTH INSURANCE,AND WOMEN'S SELF‐EMPLOYMENT

I examine whether the availability of health coverage through the spouse's health plan influences a married woman's decision to become self‐employed. The Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA86) introduced a tax subsidy for the self‐employed to purchase their own health insurance. I test whether this “natural” experiment induced more women without spousal health insurance coverage to select into self‐employment. The most conservative difference‐in‐difference estimates based on an analysis of employed women indicate that the incidence of self‐employment among single women rose by 10% in the post‐TRA86 period, while a multinomial specification based on a sample of both employed and nonemployed women suggests that the increase was about 13%. (JEL J0, J3, I1)     

GENDER AND PUBLIC ATTITUDES TOWARD CORRUPTION AND TAX EVASION

The topics of corruption and tax evasion have attracted significant attention in the literature in recent years. We build on that literature by investigating empirically: (1) whether attitudes toward corruption and tax evasion vary systematically with gender and (2) whether gender differences decline as men and women face similar opportunities for illicit behavior. We use data on eight Western European countries from the World Values Survey and the European Values Survey. The results reveal significantly greater aversion to corruption and tax evasion among women. This holds across countries and time, and across numerous empirical specifications. (JEL H260, D730, J160, Z130)     

UNDERSTANDING MEASURES OF NONMARITAL FERTILITY: THE ROLES OF MARRIAGE AND ACCESS TO HUMAN CAPITAL

This paper proposes an explanation for several decades of rising U.S. nonmarital birth rates and shares, and for cross‐sectional differences in black‐white fertility. Significantly, the explanation does not rely on changes over time or differences across races in individual fertility behavior. It is consistent with the rising nonmarital fertility measures observed in the United States since the mid‐1970s, higher measured fertility for unmarried blacks than whites, and differences across races in the timing of childbearing, despite nearly constant total fertility rates and increasingly similar target family sizes for blacks and whites. The explanation relies on a selection effect associated with changes in the marriage rate and on racial differences in access to human capital investment opportunities. We find strong support for the explanation using U.S. data over the period 1957–2002. Our findings suggest caution in interpreting the results of empirical studies of childbearing that examine marital and nonmarital fertility rates separately, as these studies typically ignore the selection effect of marriage. (JEL J12, J13, I38)     

JUDGING BIAS IN COMPETITIVE ACADEMIC DEBATE: THE EFFECTS OF REGION,SIDE, AND SEX

Debate is a “mind sport” that requires fair and impartial judging. This study examines debate rounds at the Tournament of Champions from 2004 to 2009. We use a binomial choice model to estimate the marginal effects of regional bias, sex bias, and side bias, using transitive predictions to control for idiosyncratic quality. We find evidence of region and side bias but not sex bias. These factors may explain the significant number of nontransitive outcomes in the data. Finally, we suggest some policy remedies to mitigate the impact of biases and further applications of our methodology. (JEL C25, J16, J52, J71, L83)     

Does distance matter for institutional delivery in rural India?

This article estimates the causal effect of distance to health facility on in-facility birth in rural India, taking into account the endogenous placement of the health facility. We find that women living farther away from the health facilities are less likely to give birth at a health facility. Each additional kilometre from the nearest health facility is associated with a 4.4% decline in the probability of in-facility birth. Policy simulation results indicate that providing access to a health facility within 5 km would increase institutional delivery by 10%. Overall, our findings confirm that distance is an important barrier to in-facility births in rural India.     

THE DECLINE IN MALE EMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA: A COHORT ANALYSIS

We use Census data to investigate the sources of the decline in the level of employment of working age males in Australia in recent decades. Alternative measures of the male employment rate are considered before settling on two complementary measures: the full‐time employment rate and the full‐time equivalent employment rate. The latter measure weights part‐time jobs according to the fraction of a full‐time job they represent. Models of the determinants of these two employment rates are estimated using data from the Censuses conducted between 1971 and 2001. We construct a pseudo panel by ‘stacking’ the seven Census data sets ( Deaton, 1997 ; Kapteyn, et al., 2005 ). This facilitates the tracing of birth cohorts over time, in turn making it possible to control for cohort unobserved heterogeneity that may bias cross‐sectional estimates of effects of other characteristics, in particular age and year/time period. We produce evidence that a number of factors have contributed to the decline in male employment, including the decline in couple households with dependent children, growth in income taxes and welfare replacement rates and changes in the structure of labour demand away from traditionally male‐dominated industries. We also find that, all else (observable) constant, more recent birth cohorts have no lower – and possibly higher – employment rates than earlier birth cohorts.     

A synthetic cohort analysis of female labour supply: the case of Thailand

This study analyzes trends and patterns in employment, hours worked, and women’s wages for Thai women, and relations among these variables in models of female labour supply. Labour supply behaviour of Thai women is investigated with synthetic cohort data defined by age, year of birth, and level of educational attainment, constructed from annual labour force surveys from 1985 to 2004. According to pseudo-panel estimates, wage increases lead to a reduction in hours worked, but also an increase in the employment/population ratio, with elasticity estimates that are robust across a variety of specifications. Estimates based on disaggregation by marital status show that marriage provides protection against wage decreases, allowing married women greater choice between hours of work and other household activities. Alternative disaggregations find that younger cohorts of women and those with the highest education show the greatest (positive) response of the employment rate to wage changes, leading to a future Thai labour force with more women and higher educational attainment.     

GENDER EARNINGS DIFFERENCES IN CHINA: BASE PAY,PERFORMANCE PAY,AND TOTAL PAY

We utilize a data set that has not been used in literature—the Life Histories and Social Change in Contemporary China (LHSCCC)—to provide new evidence on male‐female pay differences in China. The data set not only enables us to control for a wide range of pay‐determining characteristics but also is the first to enable an analysis of the different components of pay (e.g., base pay and performance pay) as well as for total pay. We find: (1) Women receive about three‐quarters of male pay for each of the dimensions of base pay, performance pay, and total pay, before adjusting for the effect of different pay‐determining factors; (2) Approximately two‐thirds of the gap reflect the fact that females tend to be paid less than males for the same wage‐determining characteristics (often labeled as discrimination), while about one‐third reflects the fact that males have endowments or characteristics that tend to be associated with higher pay, especially supervisory responsibilities, general labor market experience, occupational skills, education, and membership in the Communist party; (3) Marriage has a large positive effect on the earnings of women in China (and none for men), but childcare responsibilities for children under the age of 6 have a large negative effect on the earnings of women although these are offset almost completely if an elder family member is present, highlighting that childcare responsibilities disproportionately fall on women unless an elder family member is present; (4) Pay premiums for higher level skills and higher supervisory ranks are remarkably small for both males and especially females; (5) With respect to the unexplained or “discriminatory” portion of the gap, females get a huge pay penalty for simply being female, but a substantial portion of this gets offset by the higher pay premium they receive for such factors as Han ethnicity, being married, and education. This suggests that discrimination tends to occur in the form of a pay penalty for simply being female and not from lower returns to the same endowments of pay‐determining characteristics. (JEL J3, J7, M5)     

WAGE PENALTIES AND SEXUAL ORIENTATION: AN UPDATE USING THE GENERAL SOCIAL SURVEY

This study uses data from the 1988 to 2006 General Social Survey (GSS) to examine the effects of sexual orientation on earnings. Previous research using the GSS has found that lesbians earn 18%–23% more than similarly qualified heterosexual women and that wage penalties for gay men are slightly larger than the premia for lesbians. Using behavioral definitions of sexual orientation based on the previous year and the previous 5 yr of sexual activity, we find the familiar wage premia/penalties for lesbian/gay workers in our ordinary least squares estimations, but we find that these wage differences are falling over time. Furthermore, in contrast to the earlier results, for our regressions over the entire sample period, correcting for differential selection into full-time work reduces the estimated penalties for unmarried gay men and eliminates the entire wage premium for all lesbians. There is now a sizeable, though imprecisely measured, penalty for some lesbians. ( JEL J1, J3, J7)     

NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT UNDER MLB FINAL‐OFFER SALARY ARBITRATION SYSTEM

This paper provides a detailed analysis of negotiated salaries under Major League Baseball's final‐offer arbitration process using data from the 2007–2010 seasons. There is a wage premium of 25% for hitters and 14% for pitchers filing for arbitration. Interestingly, there is an additional premium for exchanging offers for hitters but not for pitchers. The additional premium in salary for hitters who exchange offers with their clubs amounts to 7%. (JEL J31, J52)     

HOW DOES SKILLS MISMATCH AFFECT REMITTANCES? A STUDY OF FILIPINO MIGRANT WORKERS

In this article, unit record data on Filipino migrants are used to analyze the issue of skills mismatch, its prevalence, and its impact on remittances sent back home. Results obtained using instrumental variable techniques reveal that significant proportions of highly educated Filipino workers are employed in low‐skilled jobs overseas, with systematic variation by gender and by country of work. We find that skills mismatch impacts significantly on the migrant's remittance behavior, with effects that are differentiated between genders. Specifically, where there is mismatch in the migrant's educational attainment and the migrant's job requirement, we find significant reductions in remittances for men but not for women. (JEL J240, J610, O150)     

THE IMPACT OF INFLATION ON PROPERTY CRIME

Using U.S. data from 1950 to 2010, we analyze to what extent inflation raises the incidence of property crime. To match our theoretical predictions, we consider different types of property crime (larceny, burglary, motor vehicle theft, and robbery) and broad and narrow definitions of inflation separately. We control for the state of the business cycle and demographic changes over time explicitly. Unobserved or difficult‐to‐measure determinants of property crime are captured through a stochastic‐trend specification within a state‐space framework. We find a robust statistical link between inflation and each of the four property crime rates. Our findings are robust to alternative definitions of inflation and the inclusion or exclusion of different control variables. In terms of policy, our findings suggest that monetary policy that creates inflation has costly spillover effects. (JEL J10, J11)     

Long-run matching relationship in the Japanese labor market

This paper investigates the long-run relationship among new hiring, unemployment (job seekers), and unfilled vacancies in Japan, using an annual panel data on 47 prefectures for 1972-1999. We find that these three variables are I(1) processes, and are cointegrated in our panel data. Further, we estimate the panel cointegration equation derived from a Cobb-Douglas matching function by the heterogeneous fully modified OLS and heterogeneous dynamic OLS. The estimation results reveal that conventional within estimates could have non-negligible biases.First version received: November 2002/Final version received: October 2003All correspondence to Shigeki Kano. The authors are grateful to the associate editor and two anonymous referees of this journal for helpful comments. Doctor Stephen J. Turnbull (University of Tsukuba) is also acknowledged for correcting English errors in this paper. Remaining errors are due to the authors. The data set and GAUSS programming code used in this paperare available upon request.     

The Effect of Education on the Timing of Marriage and First Birth in Pakistan

A rapid rise in women’s education levels, an increase in the age at marriage and an increase in the age at which they have their first child are key features of demographic transition in any country. Education is considered to be an essential component in this process because increases in educational attainment are likely to significantly affect both age at marriage and the duration between marriage and first birth - in particular increasing both the age at marriage and the time to first child. This paper uses individual level unit record data from Pakistan to examine the effect of education on the age at marriage and on the duration between marriage and first birth. We jointly estimate educational attainment, age at marriage and duration between marriage and first birth allowing for household level unobserved heterogeneity. We find that educational attainment increases the age at marriage but does not have a statistically significant effect on the duration between marriage and first birth. However, there is a threshold level of education that must be attained before educational attainment starts having an effect on the hazard of marriage.

     

FAMILY PLANNING AND WOMEN'S EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT: EVIDENCE FROM THE ONE‐CHILD POLICY

This paper exploits China's one‐child policy (OCP) to study the relationship between fertility and educational attainment of the mothers of China's “sibling‐less generation.” I take two difference‐in‐differences approaches to estimate the OCP's effect on women's education: one compares gender difference among the ethnic majority group and the other compares ethnicity differences between ethnic majority women and ethnic minority women. I also explore the heterogeneity of the policy's effects by parent's status at the Communist Party. I find that the OCP has a positive and significant effect on women's education and explains about half of the increase in educational attainment for women born between 1960 and 1980. Their increased educational attainment associates with delayed entry into first marriage, delayed entry to parenthood and increased labor supply. (JEL I20, J13, J16, J18)