Beyond trade creation: Preferential trade agreements and trade disputes

This study investigates the effects of preferential trade agreements (PTA) on bilateral trade disputes. We construct a unique and comprehensive dataset on inter-country trade disputes from 1995 to 2007. The dataset covers 110 countries and 1,162 bilateral country-pair trade disputes. Using this dataset in a gravity-type model of trade dispute analysis, we find that countries belonging to the same PTA tend to experience fewer trade conflicts among themselves than with non-member countries. By studying various types of PTA with different dispute settlement mechanisms, we further find that the dispute-reducing effect only comes from PTA with specific provisions on dispute settlement mechanisms. Moreover, the effect is stronger if those PTA explicitly stipulate that members can also resolve their disputes via the WTO Dispute Settlement Body. However, having PTA that do not address how members should resolve their disputes may lead to more dispute initiations than in cases without PTA.     

ARMS EXPORT CONTROLS, SUBSIDIES AND THE WTO EXEMPTION

Owing to the World Trade Organization (WTO) exemption that allows governments to subsidize arms exports, the arms trade is one of the few remaining areas of trade where we observe export subsidies. This paper examines the effect of arms controls, in the form of licensing delays, on the incentives to subsidize arms exports and conversely the effect of the WTO arms trade exemption on the incentives to break arms control agreements. Our main result is that arms controls and free trade commitments re‐enforce each other. Licensing delays reduce the incentive to subsidise and free trade without subsidies reduces the benefits of a unilateral abrogation of arms controls. Transparency actually worsens the Nash inefficiencies at play in that incomplete information leads to lower subsidies and lower arms exports.     

Income inequality,unemployment, and suicide: a panel data analysis of 15 European countries

One of the reasons behind the re-negotiation of the Lomé Convention, resulting in the Cotonou Agreement, was the alleged inability of the trade provisions of Lomé to increase the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries' market share of the European Union (EU) market. The Cotonou Agreement may lead to the more advanced ACPs being granted future market access to the EU under a generalized system of preferences (GSP), in conformity with World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. To this end, this paper makes a comparative analysis of the effects of the EU's Lomé Convention and GSP on exports of developing countries using a gravity type of model. The results indicate positive and statistically significant export effects of the both the Lomé Convention and the GSP. The export effects are greater in case of the Lomé Convention throughout the study period running from 1973 to 1992. In addition, the paper illustrates the EU country distribution of the export effects and shows that Belgium and The Netherlands are the EU countries that most have increased their imports from the developing countries under both the Lomé Convention and the GSP.     

New trade theory,non-price competitiveness and export performance

This paper develops a demand function for Greece's exports of manufactures according to New Trade Theory. Non-price competitiveness plays a vital role in explaining export performance and failure to include it in the export equation may lead to mis-specification error. Foreign income has a moderately high effect on exports in the long run and no effect in the short run. Exports are also sensitive to domestic and competitors' prices in the long run, but cost and price competitiveness elasticities are close to one, indicating that Greek exporters have some ability to compete on the basis of prices.     

Moving to autarky,trade creation and home market effect: an exhaustive analysis of regional trade agreements in Africa

This article analyses the effects of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) on bilateral trade in Africa. A structural gravity equation is estimated over the period 1955–2014. The overall effect of RTAs on African trade is strong, but depending on the nature of the RTAs, there is a decreasing impact over time. While Economic Integration Agreements (EIAs) still favour trade in Africa, there was no trade creation coming from Free Trade Agreements between 1990 and 2014. However, the provisions of RTAs do not have a negative impact on trade: agreements that include behind-the-border policies do not significantly deter bilateral trade. To explain the declining impact of RTAs, we look at their redistributive impact between members states. There is no evidence that large countries disproportionally export diversified goods due to RTAs (no ‘home effect’). Countries with a good international network (‘hub effect’) benefited more than other countries of RTAs between 1955 and 1990 but this is however less true on the most recent period (1990–2014).     

发达和发展中经济体对华贸易救济的比较研究

本文在对发达经济体和发展中经济体对华贸易救济的特征差异进行分析的基础上,运用贸易救济指控指数和贸易救济涉案金额指数两项指标,进一步分析了其对中国出口贸易影响的差异,得出的结论是:发达经济体和发展中经济体在立案数量、措施选取、涉案行业、涉案金额、案件执行率和诉诸WTO等方面呈现出明显的特征差异,相对其在中国出口贸易中的地位而言,发展中经济体的贸易救济对中国出口贸易的影响大于发达经济体。     

China’s competition and the export price strategies of developed countries

This paper analyzes the impact of Chinese competition on developed countries’ export prices. The empirical application is on Italy, one of the main European manufacturing exporters with exports at high risk of competition from China. Our results show that, following China’s entry into the WTO, the price strategies of Italian firms has been affected. While in general the increasing Chinese export competition resulted in an upgrading of products exported, the impact has been different according to the sector and technological level. The incentives to upgrade have been stronger for low technology sectors, where competition is tougher and varieties of products sold lower. To highlight quality differentials, and isolate the effects on the different segments of the distribution of Italy’s export prices, we run quantile regressions. We find that are mainly those products sold at low prices to face a strong pressure to upgrade.     

Institutions,Institutionalism: 1776–1974

Since developing countries were relatively free from the trade regulations relating to export promotion policies until 1994, the northeast Asian dynamic economies could pursue export promotion policies aggressively during the period of rapid economic growth. Under the current World Trade Organization (WTO) system, there are restrictions or even prohibitions on the developing countries' use of export promotion policies. One may doubt the fairness of the current WTO system, which regulates the use of export promotion policies regardless of different economic development levels. The current paper suggests various ways of allowing developing countries to develop their production capacities and exports of manufactured products. It also provides suggestions on modifying the current WTO regulations in favor of the export promotion policies of developing countries. Such special treatment of developing countries could be justified from the viewpoint of distributional fairness applied to international trade relations.     

Political Economy of Altering Trade Restrictions in Response to Commodity Price Spikes

A model is developed to explain trade policy interventions in response to commodity price spikes. The model predicts that government preferences for averting losses for domestic interest groups lead to changes in trade distortions. In particular, trade interventions in response to downward price spikes are predicted, which is consistent with the proposal for a Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM) in the World Trade Organization (WTO). Higher tariffs are likely in a noncooperative setting, and higher export subsidies will emerge in response. An efficient cooperative trade policy can be achieved in a repeated game setting and with possible involvement of the WTO.     

中国加入WTO环境保护的对策研究

中国目前正积极准备加入世界贸易组织（WTO）,WTO的宗旨是实现世界贸易自由化,而贸易自由化与环境保护之间存在着密切的关系。本文总结了GATT／WTO的多边贸易协议中与环境保护有关的规定与条款,对加入WTO我国环境保护与国际贸易的协调发展提出了对策建议。     

Do SPS measures matter for margins of trade? Evidence from firm-level data

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO) standards, countries are allowed to adapt regulations under the Sanitary and phyto-sanitary (SPS) and technical barriers to trade (TBT) agreements in order to protect human, animal and plant health, as well as environment and human safety. Yet, these measures can become an impediment in international trade, especially for developing countries. Therefore, using an Egyptian firm-level data set and a new database on specific trade concerns raised in the TBT and SPS committees at the WTO, we analyse the effects of product standards on two related aspects: first, the probability to export (firm-product extensive margin), and second, the value exported (firm-product intensive margin). We merge this data set with a new database on specific trade concerns raised in the TBT and SPS committees at the WTO. Our main findings show that SPS measures imposed on Egyptian exporters have a negative impact on the probability of exporting a new product to a new destination. By contrast, the intensive margin of exports is not significantly affected by such measures.     

Impact of oil price changes on Turkey’s exports

Substantial decline in oil prices observed since the second half of 2014 has brought forward discussions on the impact of oil prices on the external balance. This decline is expected to shift real income from oil exporter countries to oil importer countries. In this context, we study the effect of change in oil prices on Turkey’s exports taking into account the fact that Turkey’s export to oil exporting countries has approximately one-third share in total exports, while export to oil importing countries has a share of two-thirds. At the first step, we analyse the effect of oil prices on economic growth of trade partners of Turkey, where countries are grouped according to their net oil export position. We find that the effect of oil prices on different country groups’ growth is asymmetric. In the second stage, for two groups of countries, we estimate growth-export elasticity through Turkey’s export demand function. Finally, we calculate the net effect of oil prices on exports considering different income effects caused by oil price change on each country groups. Results indicate that the net effect of oil prices on the exports is limited given the current export shares.     

Hidden costs of supply management in a small market

Canada regulates its dairy and poultry industries through supply management. The supply‐management programs use target prices, production quotas and import tariff‐rate quotas to raise domestic prices. Canadian supply‐managed producers cannot export their output to world markets as exports would be considered subsidized under World Trade Organization rules. In this paper, we show that once foregone export opportunities are accounted for, supply management may no longer be beneficial to domestic producers of the supply‐managed commodities. The extent to which foregone profits from exports dominate domestic rents depends on Canada's comparative advantage, domestic market elasticities and the extent of supply management distortion in the domestic market.     

VERs and Price Undertakings under the WTO*

Under the rules of the WTO, governments are prohibited from negotiating voluntary export restraints (VERs) but may negotiate price undertakings (i.e. import price minima). While these two policies can have identical effects in models of perfect competition, they can have very different economic consequences with imperfect competition. The model presented here shows that in a model of international Bertrand duopoly, a VER can result in lower domestic prices and profits than a price minimum regime. This suggests that price undertakings should also be prohibited under the WTO.     

A Welfare Ranking of Multilateral Reductions in Real and Tariff Trade Barriers when Firms are Heterogenous

Trade liberalization comes about through reductions in various types of trade barriers. This paper introduces, apart from the customary real trade costs (i.e. iceberg and fixed export costs), two revenue generating trade barriers (i.e. an ad valorem tariff and a trade license) into a standard heterogeneous‐firms‐trade model with Pareto distributed productivities. We derive analytical welfare rankings of all four liberalization channels for an equal effect on two openness measures, for any trade cost level and while all four barriers are simultaneously present, i.e. for any initial equilibrium. We show that when openness is measured at retail prices, not border prices, the welfare rankings are sensitive to the degree of efficiency in revenue redistribution, e.g. the share of tariff revenues wasted on rent‐seeking activities. As a result, multilateral tariff reductions can switch from the least to the most preferred mode of liberalization. Among the other three barriers we establish a universal welfare ranking for any strictly positive level of revenue redistribution and for either measure of openness.     

Adjustment to trade reform in Ecuador

This paper simulates output adjustments and income redistribution in Ecuador with the emerging Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA). The Specific Factors (SF) model of production is used to develop comparative statistics elasticities of changing prices on factor prices and output as Ecuador adjusts to free trade. Skilled and unskilled labor stands to lose due to falling prices in the services and agricultural sectors. Returns to capital and output fall in sectors exposed to import competition while they increase in sectors expected to enjoy higher export demand. The magnitude of the adjustment is large.     

Exchange rate pass-through,price discrimination,and US meat export prices

Exports are becoming increasingly important for US livestock and poultry producers. Consequently, meat industry participants are concerned about the potential impacts of variations in relative currency values. These effects are considered by quantifying the impacts of relative exchange rates on US beef, pork and poultry export prices. In addition, the impacts of GATT and NAFTA agreements on exchange rate pass-through are considered. The results indicate incomplete exchange rate pass-through occurs for several countries. Trade liberalization under GATT has positively influenced US beef and poultry export prices.     

China's membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the exports of the developing economies of East Asia: a computable general equilibrium approach

There is a general perception particularly among the developing countries of East Asia that China's WTO membership would spell bad news for their exports. The ASEAN countries in particular are quite concerned about its likely negative impact on their export and growth potentials. In this light, the main objective of this paper is to empirically assess the trade implications of China's WTO membership for these countries. Only few studies, using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) approach, have addressed the issue of China's WTO membership trade implications. Further, these studies have not adequately addressed the issue from the perspective of the developing countries of East Asia, particularly the ASEAN countries. Using the latest version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and based on the latest tariff reduction commitments by China, the results showed that, contrary to the current perception and previous studies, almost all of the developing countries of East Asia are likely to benefit from China's WTO membership overall, after allowing for anticipated price adjustments. Without the price adjustments, the Philippines and Singapore would have come out as net losers. These findings have confirmed the need for economic and export restructuring among the ASEAN countries and the importance of accelerating their economic integration. They have also highlighted the importance of promoting trade and investment cooperation between China and ASEAN countries.     

Does WTO accession matter for the Chinese textile and clothing industry?

Based on field surveys conducted in Guangdong, Zhejiang andBeijing in 2000 and 2001, this paper argues that accession tothe World Trade Organisation (WTO) by China will create a newcompetitive arena for different categories of textile and clothingfirms located in that country, partly dependent on the sizeand ownership of the firm. From the perspectives of reducingimport tariffs, eliminating export quotas and the regulationson trade disputes, WTO accession does matter for the majorityof Chinese firms in this ‘win–lose’ game.From the perspective of compliance with international standards,this paper argues that accession to the WTO does not reallymatter for some Chinese firms, as they may not survive the intensecompetition prior to 2005, when the effects of the Agreementon Textiles and Clothing materialise.     

Democracy and Accession to GATT/WTO

In this paper we argue that the level of democracy of an applicant country affects the time it takes to gain General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization (GATT/WTO) accession. An extensive empirical search suggests that the GATT/WTO accession duration is likely to be shorter for an applicant whose political regime is more democratic. Meanwhile, countries that initiated applications before 1995 took longer to accede to GATT than those that initiated applications after 1995 to accede to the WTO. The GATT/WTO accession is shortened if the applicant country's economy is large. Such findings are robust to the choice of different econometric methods, data sets and model specifications.