The impact of oil prices on trade

This paper introduces an oil price–distance interaction variable in a gravity equation to explain how global trade behaves as a result of oil price changes. The findings are that as oil prices increase, international trade becomes more localized in that countries begin trading relatively more with their neighbors. In contrast, when they decrease, trade becomes more dispersed in that the distance between countries becomes less relevant. These results are highly significant across specifications, and the magnitude is not to be ignored. According to the full specification an oil price halving will make trade more dispersed by relatively increasing trade by 40% for a distance of 10,000 miles and by 25% for a distance of 1,000 miles.     

The impact of preferential trade agreements on the duration of antidumping protection

This paper examines the impact of preferential trade agreements on the duration of antidumping protection. We employ a two-step selection model where the first step accounts for the impact of membership in a preferential trade agreement on the original antidumping determination and the second step estimates the impact of membership in a preferential trade agreement on the duration of the measures. We find the duration of antidumping protection is about 17% shorter for preferential trade agreement members compared with targeted countries that are not preferential trade agreement members. The impact on duration depends largely on whether preferential trade agreements have rules related specifically to antidumping. Preferential trade agreements with rules are associated with a 28% reduction in the duration of protection, whereas the duration for preferential trade agreements without rules is not statistically different from the duration for non-preferential trade agreement countries. While the duration of antidumping measures against China is longer than for other countries, the impact of preferential trade agreement rules is robust to controlling for China.     

Energy prices and the expansion of world trade

The share of merchandise output that is internationally traded has significantly increased while tariffs have fallen. However, standard trade models have surprising difficulty linking these two facts. Trade growth slowed in the 1970s as tariffs fell relatively sharply while after the late 1980s trade grew quickly as tariffs fell slowly. This pattern implies that the price-import elasticity has changed over time. Also, tariffs have not fallen enough to generate such a large increase in trade given estimates of this elasticity. Changes in transport costs can resolve both puzzles. I present a vertical specialization trade model with an energy-using transportation sector. In the simulated model, trade growth slows from 1974 to 1985. The oil shocks raised transport costs, offsetting falling tariffs, so the price-import elasticity no longer needs to change. It also generates the observed volume of trade growth since transport costs have fallen over the long run.     

Ricardian trade and the impact of domestic competition on export performance

Abstract This paper develops and empirically examines a model of relative productivity differences both within and across industries for small open economies. We decompose the effect of industry productivity on export performance into direct effect of own‐firm productivity and an indirect effect of higher peer‐firm productivity. In a sample of Chilean and Colombian plants, we find evidence of both a positive direct effect and a negative indirect effect. The empirical evidence supports our theoretical prediction that industry‐specific factors of production and asymmetric substitutability between domestic and foreign varieties drive the negative indirect effect. JEL classification: F10, F11, F12     

Elasticities of substitution and export demands in a world trade model

Alternative complete models of world trade, based on the trade shares matrix approach, are specified and estimated for twenty-seven countries and regions. This model attempts to explain the composition of imports on the bases of relative prices and time trend, given the total quantity of imports of each country. Elasticities of substitution amongst imports of different countries of origin in each import market are obtained and used in the derivation of aggregate export demand functions for the individual countries. There is also a comparison of the predictive performance of the alternative models.     

Beyond trade creation: Preferential trade agreements and trade disputes

This study investigates the effects of preferential trade agreements (PTA) on bilateral trade disputes. We construct a unique and comprehensive dataset on inter-country trade disputes from 1995 to 2007. The dataset covers 110 countries and 1,162 bilateral country-pair trade disputes. Using this dataset in a gravity-type model of trade dispute analysis, we find that countries belonging to the same PTA tend to experience fewer trade conflicts among themselves than with non-member countries. By studying various types of PTA with different dispute settlement mechanisms, we further find that the dispute-reducing effect only comes from PTA with specific provisions on dispute settlement mechanisms. Moreover, the effect is stronger if those PTA explicitly stipulate that members can also resolve their disputes via the WTO Dispute Settlement Body. However, having PTA that do not address how members should resolve their disputes may lead to more dispute initiations than in cases without PTA.     

Free trade agreements without delocation

Small nations fear that FTAs with larger, richer nations will erode their industrial bases. These concerns are recognized in FTA and multilateral talks: small nations may explicitly or implicitly maintain higher trade barriers. Using a model where symmetric liberalization de-industrializes small, poor nations, we characterize the path of protection-asymmetries that allow liberalization without delocation. In welfare terms, the large nation prefers this no-delocation liberalization scheme only when barriers are sufficiently high; the small nation's ranking is reversed. An anti-delocation scheme involving international income transfers is also evaluated and found infeasible.
Accords de libre-échange quand il y a délocalisation. Les petits pays craignent que les accords de libre-échange avec des pays plus grands et plus riches n'entament leur base industrielle. Ces malaises sont reconnus dans les négociations bilatérales et multilatérales: on permet aux petits pays de maintenir explicitement ou implicitement des barrières commerciales plus élevées. A l'aide d'un modéle où la libéralisation des échanges engendre une désindustrialisation des petits pays pauvres, les auteurs identifient les niveaux d'asymétrie dans le niveau de protection qui permettent d'engendrer une désindustrialisation sans délocalisation. En termes de niveau de bien-être, le grand pays préfère cet arrangement sans délocalisation seulement quand les barrières commerciales sont suffisamment élevées; la préférence des petits pays est à l'inverse. On évalue un arrangement sans délocalisation impliquant des transferts internationaux de revenus, et on montre qu'il est impraticable.     

The strategy of trade sanctions in international environmental agreements

This paper analyzes the links between policies aimed at supplying a global public good and international trade in segmented markets. I find that the credible threat to impose trade sanctions may be capable of sustaining full cooperation in the supply of the public good, provided the sanctions are accompanied by a minimum participation clause which serves to coordinate government behavior. In equilibrium, trade is not restricted. But if the threat to impose sanctions were not allowed by the rules of the game, supply of the public good would be Pareto-inefficient.     

Determinants of successful regional trade agreements

This paper investigates the determinants of the effectiveness of regional trade agreements (RTAs) in enhancing bilateral trade. Characteristics of both the country pair and other RTA members are found to significantly influence the trade creation effect of RTAs. However, North/North, North/South and South/South RTAs are found to have similar effects on trade.     

Paths of efficient self-enforcing trade agreements

This paper characterizes the efficient payoff frontier in a three country model where countries face one time adjustment costs of forming trade agreements, and compares it with the constrained efficient frontier when agreements must be self-enforcing. The presence of self-enforcement constraints puts a limit on the magnitude of transfers that can be made between countries, and makes it more likely that bilateral agreements are observed on the constrained efficient frontier. The existence of adjustment costs leads to the possibility that payoffs under a two step agreement, in which an initial bilateral agreement is expanded to include the third country, may Pareto dominate the payoffs from immediate formation of an agreement among all three countries. However, the condition that a two step agreement be efficient in the absence of self-enforcing constraints is neither necessary nor sufficient for the gradual approach to have a lower minimum discount factor. This paper was prepared for the conference “New Directions in International Trade Theory” held at the University of Nottingham. I thank Andres Rodriguez-Clare, Rod Falvey, conference participants, and anonymous referees for helpful comments on an earlier draft.     

Optimal remedies in international trade agreements

This paper takes a mechanism-design approach to characterize a politically optimal trade agreement under the assumption that governments have private information about the fluctuating political pressure they face from domestic interest groups to restrict trade. The optimal mechanism under these changing circumstances involves a remedy system for breach of trade agreements that specifies less-than-proportional retaliations against deviating parties. This result is in contrast to the conventional wisdom in the literature regarding the efficiency of the Reciprocity Principle as a rule of renegotiation in trade agreements. I also consider an institutional structure in which only commensurate retaliations are practical but governments can employ a public randomizing device to authorize retaliations. I show that it is optimal to authorize retaliations only randomly. This suggests a role for the WTO dispute settlement process as a public randomizing device.     

International supply chains and trade agreements

There is a growing literature that examines the role of trade agreements on the formation of international supply chains. The evidence indicates that in general countries that share trade agreements are more likely to develope cross-border supply chains. In this analysis, we argue that in order to examine the effects of trade agreements on the formation of supply chains between two countries, it is not enough to analyse the impact of the trade agreements that the two countries share but it is also important to assess the impact of the trade agreements that they share with third countries. Using data on trade in value added for 129 countries, we show empirically that about 40% of the potential increase in trade in value added induced by a trade agreement between an importing country and a sourcing partner is wiped out by each additional trade agreement signed by the importing country with third nations in which the sourcing partner is not a member. The result has important implications for regions seeking to develop international supply chains but in which the process of integration is highly fragmented.     

Exempted sectors in free trade agreements

Almost all participants in free trade agreements (FTAs) exclude at least a few products or sectors from complete tariff removal on the exports of their FTA partners. The positive tariffs that remain within an FTA are often the highest tariffs that the countries apply on an MFN basis. It seems plausible that such exclusions may be chosen because the domestic producers of these products are viewed as especially vulnerable to competition from imports from the partner country. In brief, they are especially “sensitive sectors.” We develop this idea theoretically and then test it empirically on data from 37 countries in 240 importer–exporter pairs within FTAs. We find support for the sensitive‐sector hypothesis only in the high‐income countries. We find that low‐income countries, in contrast, exempt sectors where bilateral tariff removal would be more likely trade‐diverting and therefore harmful. Our explanation for this, supported empirically, is not that they are following the advice of trade economists, but rather that they are avoiding loss of tariff revenue and may also perhaps be influenced by the greater bargaining power of richer and/or larger partners in their FTAs.     

Dynamic formation of preferential trade agreements: The role of flexibility

In practice, free trade agreements (FTAs) vastly outnumber customs unions (CUs). Nevertheless, the literature traditionally views CUs as optimal for members because CU members coordinate external tariffs. I show that a dynamic FTA flexibility benefit can help explain the prevalence of FTAs: individual FTA members have the flexibility to form their own future FTAs whereas CU members must jointly engage in future CU formation. I show how the relative prevalence of FTAs versus CUs depends on the structure of market size asymmetry across countries and use these predictions to shed some light on FTA versus CU formation in Europe and South America.     

International migration and trade agreements: The new role of PTAs

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and bilateral migration flows. Building on the empirical literature on the determinants of migration flows, I estimate a modified gravity model to assess the role of PTAs and their content on bilateral migration flows. Using a sample of 29 OECD destination countries over the period 1998–2008, I show a strong positive effect of PTAs on bilateral migration flows. I find that the content of PTAs also matters: when visa‐and‐asylum and labour market related provisions are included in PTAs, this further stimulates bilateral migration flows. Different estimation strategies, including instrumental variables, are employed to address the potential endogeneity bias problems related to PTAs and their content.     

Tariff rate quotas and the economic impact of agricultural trade liberalization in the world trade organization

Since their implementation at the Uruguay Round, tariff rate quotas (TRQs) have become a widely used instrument of trade policy in agricultural trade. With almost 1,300 TRQs scheduled at the World Trade Organization, this paper will examine their economic effects more closely. First, the theoretical background of TRQs is examined. Then, a short overview of the Uruguay Round and their institutional background is given. We demonstrate that official statistics, which do not count TRQs as nontariff barriers, are at least highly misleading. Very often, their effects are the same as those of regular quotas, including redistributive effects. The prominent example of the European banana regime is used to illustrate all of these points.A first draft of this paper was presented at the International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 14–21, 2000, Munich, Germany. The results are part of the research project "The Influence of the Institutional Design on the Actual Impacts of Agricultural Trade Liberalization after GATT." Financial support by Volkswagen Stiftung is gratefully acknowledged.     

On the trade-diversion effects of free trade agreements

Trade-diversion effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) have not been thoroughly examined empirically. Using a novel empirical approach, we confirm that FTAs divert trade away from non-member countries and even more so from internal trade (domestic sales) in member countries.     

Managed trade: The US–Mexico sugar suspension agreements

Under the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement, Mexican sugar producers were ultimately granted free access to the US sugar market, while all other suppliers, including US refiners, were subject to supply quotas. Following a surge in imports of Mexican sugar, the American Sugar Coalition initiated anti‐dumping and countervailing duty (ADCVD) proceedings against Mexico in early 2014. In December 2014, the ADCVD cases were halted as a result of two suspension agreements negotiated between the US and Mexico. This paper contributes to a small number of empirical studies that have estimated the impact of suspension agreements. We measure the impacts of the ADCVD filings and the suspension agreements on US domestic raw and refined prices, the raw‐to‐refined margin and the quantity and composition of sugar imports from Mexico. Results suggest US raw sugar prices increased by 3¢ per lb. (14%) under ADCVD proceedings, equivalent to an ad valorem tariff between 40% and 50%, while the suspension agreements increased US raw sugar prices by 5¢ (70% tariff equivalent). US refined sugar prices increased by similar amounts under the ADCVD proceedings and the suspension agreements (4.5¢ per lb.). Ultimately, both the ADCVD proceedings and the suspension agreements significantly reduced sugar imports from Mexico. US sugar refiner economic welfare hinges critically on the quantity and composition of raw sugar imports. As such, refiner revenue, following the ADCVD filings and suspension agreements, is estimated to have declined by 16%, relative to a free trade environment.     

谨慎性原则的再认识

谨慎性原则贯穿于会计准则体系的很多方面,在会计实践操作中发挥着重要作用,是会计职业判断的重要依据.在当前经济形势动荡的环境下.需要重新认识谨慎性原则的意义和作用.本文认为,谨慎性原则的核心是一种风险拨备概念,对当期会计收益的修正相当于一种风险折价,以此来抵御市场变化的风险.     

The impact of oil prices on income and energy

The major determinant of real income growth in Korea is real oil prices, followed by money supply, exchange rates, energy consumption, and government spending. Over the longer horizon, the effects of exchange rates, oil prices, government spending, and money supply become more pronounced. For energy consumption, the most important factor is oil prices, followed by exchange rates, government spending, money supply, and income. For the association between energy consumption and real income, energy consumption influences real income growth only through energy consumption, while real income affects energy consumption only through the error correction term. The findings of the study thus suggest that the level of economic activity and energy consumption mutually influence each other.