Is the Virtual Integration of Financial Markets Beneficial in Emerging Markets? Evidence from MILA

This article analyzes whether the Latin American Integrated Market (MILA) has been beneficial for its participants. Using a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by Engle (2002), we found evidence that creating MILA increased the correlation levels in stock returns of member countries. Evidence indicates that this increase occurs mainly due to the increase in traded volume in the country with the least developed stock market—Peru.

In short, findings suggest that in an integration process such as MILA, as stock market members differ, in terms of stock market development, the markets will benefit from the integration. However, in the long term these benefits dissipate over time.     

Why Invest in Emerging Markets? The Role of Conditional Return Asymmetry

We propose a quantile‐based measure of conditional skewness, particularly suitable for handling recalcitrant emerging market (EM) returns. The skewness of international stock market returns varies significantly across countries over time, and persists at long horizons. In EMs, skewness is mostly positive and idiosyncratic, and significantly relates to a country's financial and trade openness and balance of payments. In an international portfolio setting, return asymmetry leads to sizeable certainty‐equivalent gains and increases the weight on emerging countries to about 30%. Investing in EMs seems to be about expectations of a higher upside than downside, consistent with recent theories.     

Can Miracles Lead to Crises? The Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises

Emerging market financial crises are abrupt and dramatic usually occurring after a precrisis bonanza. This paper develops an equilibrium asset pricing model with informational frictions in which crisis itself is a  consequence  of the investor optimism in the period preceding the crisis. If preceded by a sequence of positive signals, a small, negative noise shock can trigger a downward adjustment in investors' beliefs, asset prices, and consumption. The magnitude of this downward adjustment  increases  with the level of optimism attained prior to the negative signal. Moreover, with informational frictions, asset prices display persistent effects in response to transitory shocks.     

Prices or Knowledge? What Drives Demand for Financial Services in Emerging Markets?

Financial development is critical for growth, but its microdeterminants are not well understood. We test leading theories of low demand for financial services in emerging markets, combining novel survey evidence from Indonesia and India with a field experiment. We find a strong correlation between financial literacy and behavior. However, a financial education program has modest effects, increasing demand for bank accounts only for those with limited education or financial literacy. In contrast, small subsidies greatly increase demand. A follow‐up survey confirms these findings, demonstrating that newly opened accounts remain open and in use 2 years after the intervention.     

Can Investors Identify Managerial Discretion in Corporate Social Responsibility Practices? The Moderate Role of Investor Protection

This paper analyses investors’ ability to identify if managers use corporate social responsibility as an entrenchment practice to conceal the risk of dismissal associated with managerial discretion and if this detection is determined by the level of investor protection orientation. Results based on an international database of 1949 companies show that investors and markets do not identify managerial entrenchment based on the promotion of sustainable practices, except when such entrenchment is developed by companies located in countries with strong investor protection. In these countries, investors identify and penalise such companies with lower financial performance.     

Is There a Size Effect in the Pricing of Stocks in the Chinese Stock Markets?: The Case of Bull Versus Bear Markets

Size effect studies generally suggest that a return premium exists for small firms. While the size effect has mostly disappeared in recent years in mature markets (e.g., US and UK), it remains mostly strong in developing markets. The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between firm size and excess stock returns in the Chinese stock markets, and to examine this effect in both a bull and bear market. No studies have previously examined these relationships in the Chinese markets. The results of the study indicate that a size effect exists in the Chinese stock markets over the 6-year period from 1998 to 2003. We find small firms have significantly greater excess returns than large firms. Moreover, small firms are found to have a stronger reaction to the direction of the market than large firms. Small firms have significantly greater positive excess returns than large firms during the bull market. However, small firms have significantly greater negative returns (using total market value), or no significant difference in returns (using float market value) during the bear market period.     

Do Stronger Patents Stimulate or Stifle Innovation? The Crucial Role of Financial Development

This study explores the effects of patent protection in a research and development (R&D)-based growth model with financial frictions. We find that whether stronger patent protection stimulates or stifles innovation depends on credit constraints faced by R&D entrepreneurs. When credit constraints are nonbinding (binding), strengthening patent protection stimulates (stifles) R&D. The overall effect of patent protection on innovation follows an inverted-U pattern. By relaxing the credit constraints, financial development stimulates innovation. Furthermore, patent protection is more likely to have a positive effect on innovation under a higher level of financial development. We consider cross-country panel regressions and find supportive evidence for this result.     

Is There Excess Capacity in Rural Banking Markets?

The literature indicates that it is difficult to identify and quantify the degree of excess capacity in banking. Economic theory indicates that there are at least three indicators of excess capacity in banking: (a) low loan-to-asset ratios, (b) low profitability and (c) high per unit operating expense relative to some norm. If excess capacity exists, it will be easiest to identify, through these indicators, at small rural banks. This paper finds significant evidence of excess capacity at rural Colorado banks using univariate analysis; simultaneous equations analysis reinforces this conclusion. It appears that the “excess capacity effect”outweighs the “market power effect”in these rural banking markets.     

Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Human Capital Accumulation? The Role of Gradual Financial Liberalization

We argue that the effect of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) on domestic human capital (HC) accumulation depends on the degree of financial deregulation. Using 383 observations from provincial yearly panel data of the reform period in China, we find the following: FDI has a positive and significant interaction effect with financial deregulation on HC in both least squares dummy variable and system generalized method of moments estimations that address the endogeneity of all important explanatory variables including FDI, financial deregulation, and their interaction term. That is, a higher level of financial deregulation increases the marginal effect of inward FDI on domestic HC.     

Why Do Firms Evade Taxes? The Role of Information Sharing and Financial Sector Outreach

Tax evasion is a widespread phenomenon across the globe and even an important factor in the ongoing sovereign debt crisis. We show that firms in countries with better credit information–sharing systems and higher branch penetration evade taxes to a lesser degree. This effect is stronger for smaller firms, firms in smaller cities and towns, firms in industries relying more on external financing, and firms in industries and countries with greater growth potential. This effect is robust to instrumental variable analysis, controlling for firm fixed effects in a smaller panel data set of countries, and many other robustness tests.     

What's in a “China” Name? A Test of Investor Attention Hypothesis

We study whether a firm's name affects investor attention and firm valuation. Some Chinese firms listed on US stock exchanges have the word “China” included in their company names (“China‐name stocks”), while others do not (“non‐China‐name stocks”). During the 2007 China stock market boom, we find that China‐name stocks significantly outperform non‐China‐name stocks. This is not due to differences in firm characteristics, risk, or liquidity. The “China‐name effect” is largely consistent with the investor attention hypothesis that price pressure caused by increased investor attention on China‐name stocks during the boom period drives up China‐name stocks more than non‐China‐name stocks.     

Is There Volatility Convergence in Asia-Pacific Securitized Real Estate Markets?

We assess whether a group of eight Asia-Pacific securitized real estate markets display similar volatility trend over the past 15 years, 1995–2009, using an econometric model that incorporates common volatility effects across the sample markets. The empirical results indicate the presence of at least one common variance component, and thus partial volatility convergence, among the sample Asia real estate securities markets. During the global financial crisis period, some real estate securities markets are co-integrated in both their first and second moments and demonstrate partial price and volatility convergence. Our analysis that focuses in capturing the common roots in the second moment whilst accounting for time-varying variance has important implications for international real estate portfolio investment.     

Is Group Affiliation Profitable in Emerging Markets? An Analysis of Diversified Indian Business Groups

Emerging markets like India have poorly functioning institutions, leading to severe agency and information problems. Business groups in these markets have the potential both to offer benefits to member firms, and to destroy value. We analyze the performance of affiliates of diversified Indian business groups relative to unaffiliated firms. We find that accounting and stock market measures of firm performance initially decline with group diversification and subsequently increase once group diversification exceeds a certain level. Unlike U.S. conglomerates' lines of business, and similar to the affiliates of U.S. LBO associations, affiliates of the most diversified business groups outperform unaffiliated firms.     

Would Roman Soldiers Fight for the Financial Flows Regime? The Re-issue of Diocletian's Edict in the English NHS

Some 17 centuries after the Roman Emperor Diocletian attempted to set prices across the Roman Empire, a system of national prices (tariffs) is being introduced to the English National Health Service (NHS) to enhance patient choice. Initially, fixed prices will apply to 15 treatments. Costs for these treatments as reported by all NHS providers are examined to ascertain whether the data provide a robust basis for price setting. If prices are calculated such that providers are unable to recover the true costs of efficient service provision, considerable financial disruption could result for no good purpose. The authors explain the lessons that should have been learned from the Roman experiment and the changes that need to be made to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past.     

Is Financial Flexibility a Priced Factor in the Stock Market?

This paper develops a factor analysis–based measure for shifts in corporate financial flexibility (FFLEX) that can be observed from public accounting information. Companies that experience positive shifts in FFLEX are associated with higher future investment growth opportunities. We show that FFLEX is a robust determinant of future stock returns. Firms that have increased their financial flexibility are associated with lower stock returns in the subsequent period. A zero‐cost return portfolio produces a significant positive monthly premium of 0.69%, which is driven by covariance (risk). Risk inherent in the flexibility factor is not explained away by either prominent pricing characteristics or factors.     

How Prepared was Australia for International Financial Reporting Standards? The Case of Listed Firms

We measure the preparedness of listed firms for international financial reporting standards (IFRS) by changes in explanations from Australian GAAP to IFRS between the half-year and annual accounts. About one-third of sample firms changed their explanations for earnings, cashflows or equity by averages of about −7%, 67% and 3% respectively. Most changes are less than 5% for earnings and equity, and tax is the item most commonly revised. More profitable firms and firms with more reconciling items are most likely to change an explanation. In a telephone survey of chief financial officers, 70% revealed that the change followed an incorrect application of an accounting rule in the half-year accounts.