Predicting U.S. jet fighter aircraft introductions from 1944 to 1982: A dogfight between regression and TFDEA

Since its inception in 2001, technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) has been used with a number of applications. This paper presents a formal comparison of TFDEA with a previously published application from Technological Forecasting and Social Change by Joseph Martino. Using the data and multiple-regression model from Martino, we compare results obtained from TFDEA to those previously published. Both techniques predict the first flights of fighter jets introduced between 1960 and 1982 by using first-flight data of aircraft introduced between 1944 and 1960. TFDEA was found to better predict the first-flight dates than the multiple-regression forecast. These results indicate that TFDEA may be a powerful new technique for predicting complex technological trends and time to market for new products.     

Employment in the U.S.: Public discourse and longterm trends

Revised version of a talk delivered at a “Presidential Roundtable on President Clinton’s First Year” at the annual meetings of the Association for Social Economics on January 3, 1994 in Boston.     

Public funding for ocean energy: A comparison of the UK and U.S.

This paper presents a detailed analysis of the activities in which ocean energy public funding in the UK and the U.S. has been spent. It conducts a direct comparison of funding from the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) with that from the UK and Scottish Governments. UK investment in the sector has been relatively sustained and has increased since 2002. Almost $295 million has been spent in total, across multiple funding bodies. U.S. spending began with the establishment of the Marine Hydrokinetic division of the DoE Water Power Programme in 2008, which has administered all non-defence federal public funding for the sector. U.S. funding has steadily increased since 2008, with the total funding approaching $92 million.Approximately 40% of total U.S. spending has been on underpinning R&D activities, compared to 20% in the UK which has had a larger focus on funding full scale test infrastructure and related deployment activities. Whilst the U.S. has seen steadily increasing funding for all activities to support the sector, UK funding for deployment activities, especially test centre infrastructure and demonstration activities, has not been sustained and has had significant peaks and troughs in recent years as funding programmes and initiatives have started and finished.     

Measuring the size and dynamics of U.S. state-level shadow economies using a dynamic general equilibrium model with trends

We use a two-sector dynamic deterministic general equilibrium model that specifically accounts for trends among time-series variables to estimate the size of the shadow economy for the 50 U.S. states from 1999 to 2019, following Solis-Garcia and Xie (2018, 2022). This paper improves on existing measures of the state-level shadow economy (such as the multiple indicators, multiple causes (MIMIC) methodology by Wiseman (2013a)). In particular, this new measure is based on theoretical foundations, extends the previous measure to include the Great Recession, includes dollar value estimates of the shadow economy, and produces considerably more variation over time and across states. Furthermore, we explore determinants of this new shadow economy measure using a panel vector autoregressive model and find that, on average, states with higher levels of economic freedom, lower regulatory barriers, and larger real GDP have smaller shadow economies. States with bigger governments, on average, have larger shadow economies, and the effect of corruption on shadow economic activity is non-linear, with a positive initial and subsequent negative impact.     

2011年美国科技发展现状(上)

虽然美国遭受经济危机重创,经济实力有所下滑,但目前仍为世界第一大经济体,科技实力依然雄厚,整体创新能力世界上最强..随着其金融业的复苏,美国的竞争力也重回世界排名第一.2011年2月,美国政府发布了新的国家创新战略,期望通过加强对教育、基础研究等创新基础要素的投入,推动基于市场的创新,推动清洁能源等国家优先领域的突破,以确保美国经济的增长与繁荣.本文对美国的科技发展现状进行了分析,并对一年来美国落实创新战略的举措进行了综述.     

Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from industry trade between U.S. and U.K.

ABSTRACT

Previous research that assessed the impact of exchange rate changes on the trade balance between the U.S. and U.K. assumed the effects are symmetric. In this paper, we add to the literature on the asymmetric J-curve phenomenon by considering the trade balance of 68 two-digit industries that trade between the two countries. We find short-run asymmetric effects of the real dollar-pound rate in almost all industries. However, short-run asymmetric effects were translated into significant long-run asymmetric effects in 25 industries. Indeed, the asymmetric J-curve hypothesis was supported in 18 industries.     

从“高薪招贤”看高等教育师资队伍建设——中美两国的比较研究

在我国改革开放的过程中,高薪引进国外人才已经成为推动高等教育发展的一种重要手段,并有强化之势,出现了以百万高薪聘请海外学者的事例.作者认为这种"高薪招贤"的做法并不可取.本文介绍了中国与美国高等院校的一般师资状况,对我国的高等教育师资建设改革进行了分析,认为提高我国高校水平应从多种层面入手,诸如提高本国教师的学历水平,加强与国外高校的实质性交流与合作,建立高水平的学术研究文化等等;并认为实行这些措施的主要障碍是观念陈旧,而不是缺乏资金.     

Women's employment patterns during the U.S. inter-war period: A comparison of two states

Establishment data from New York and Ohio, two U.S. states representing mature versus dynamic industrial sectors, are used to decompose changes in women's employment during economic fluctuations in the 1920s and 1930s. By decomposing changes in women's employment, one can distinguish between changes which reflect the gender distribution of employment between various industry categories and changes which reflect employer decisions to mobilize specific groups of workers. The empirical findings suggest that during the inter-war period, economic restructuring in Ohio's mass-production industries resulted in substitution toward women workers. Nevertheless, in both states, working women's segmentation into industries which were less hard hit by the Great Depression confined their employment losses. The results suggest that patterns of gender segmentation which are ordinarily quite rigid may be redefined during the political, social and cultural upheaval that accompanies economic restructuring.     

The evolution of job stability in Canada: trends and comparisons with U.S. results

Abstract.  Using data from the 1976–2001 Canadian Labour Force Survey, we examine the stability of currently held jobs and find no period‐long drop in job stability. However, job stability declined across the 1980s and rose across the 1990s for workers with less than one year of tenure. When 1987 and 1995 are compared, it can be seen that job stability was steady in Canada but fell slightly in the United States, with the difference concentrated among medium tenured workers. We suggest that this difference was due to a slower recovery in Canada in the 1990s, which caused Canadian workers to be less mobile. JEL classification: J63     

Measuring persistence of U.S. city prices: new evidence from robust tests

This article revisits the empirical analysis in Cecchetti et al. (Int Econ Rev 43:1081–1099, 2002) involving long-span U.S. city prices, who estimated the persistence of U.S. price differentials to be around 9 years. After controlling for the structural breaks in the data, we find that U.S. city price level differentials are I(0) stationary processes with the median half-life of convergence ranged between 1.5 and 2.6 years, estimates that are in accordance with what should be expected from a highly integrated economy as the United States. Our results are also robust to a pairwise test of price level convergence.     

中国与美国经贸摩擦现状、原因及对策

当前日益增多的贸易摩擦正对中、美经贸关系的顺利发展产生越来越大的负面影响。研究中、美经贸摩擦现状及产生的原因,可及时采取措施,避免和解决摩擦,以实现中美贸易健康持续发展。     

美国与法国财政联邦主义比较

财政联邦主义是处理中央与地方政府之间财政关系的一种制度设计。美国和法国分别是典型的联邦制国家和单一制国家,其政府间的职权、支出责任、税收与税权的划分以及转移支付关系等,均表现出极强的财政联邦主义特征,通过比较,既可以为财政联邦主义理论提供实证,也能够为我国分税制财政体制的完善提供可资借鉴的内容。     

直接投资引致的美中贸易逆差:经验研究

运用基于误差修正模型的格兰杰因果关系检验模型,在商品分类层面研究关中贸易逆差与关国对华直接投资的内在联系。结果显示：从长期和短期来看,中国制成品的出口都是关中贸易逆差的“因”,中国制成品的出口与关国对华直接投资之间具有显著的双向格兰杰因果关系,因此关国进入中国的FDI,尤其是进入制造业的FDI越多,美中贸易逆差就越大;美中贸易逆差是结构性的,它不仅不会在短期内消除,而且会随着美国劳动密集型产业向中国的进一步转移而加剧。     

MEASURING THE PERFORMANCE OF A COMMUNIST COMMAND ECONOMY: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE CIA ESTIMATES FOR THE U.S.S.R.

There are major methodological and practical problems in comparing the performance of capitalist and communist economies. They have been most carefully analysed for the former Soviet Union, for which there was a huge research input, mainly by the CIA. The CIA effort had considerable merit, particularly in assessing Soviet rates of growth. Unfortunately, it was terminated in 1991, partly because it suffered from unduly harsh criticism, partly because its political relevance waned. However, the CIA archives remain an important source for the study of comparative economic growth. It would be extremely useful if they were opened to scholars, a serious loss if they were destroyed.     

Constitutional protection of economic rights: The Swiss and U.S. experience in comparison

This paper analyzes the contribution of the Swiss and the U.S. Constitution to protect economic liberties, and compares the different strategies that both constitutions rely on to achieve this goal. Pertinent provisions in the Swiss Constitution are rather precise but relatively easy to change, whereas the U.S. Constitution is characterized by vaguely formulated constraints that are difficult to amend formally and that are interpreted by the Supreme Court. Nevertheless, the substantial constitutional changes that did occur in both countries seem to have followed strikingly similar patterns: Initially, regional integration through reciprocal market opening within both countries facilitated the constitutional protection of economic liberties. Subsequently, the constitutional protection of economic liberties eroded in both countries, especially against federal legislation, due to changes in the interpretation of the constitution through the courts, or by formal amendment. Lastly, both constitutions were not immune against sudden demands by special interest groups that were being raised during times of crisis or war. I wish to thank Beat Blankart, Ludger Schuknecht and Barry Weingast for helpful comments.     

Recent trends in the registered nurse labor market in the U.S.: short-run swings on top of long-term trends

Drawing from labor economics, background information is provided for a deeper understanding of recent changes in the nurse labor market. The difference between the short and long-run supply of RNs are distinguished, and the economic forces that determine RNs' decision to be active in the labor market are explained. The ways the nurse labor market may change in the next few years are discussed.     

A comparison of the spatial distribution of innovative activities in China and the U.S.

In order to enhance the independent innovation capability and help China to become an “innovation-oriented country” this article compares the spatial distribution of innovative activities between China (representing a typical developing country) and the United States. We also provide some recommendations for China and other developing countries to optimize the spatial distribution of their innovative activities. Using invention patents as an indicator gathered from the websites of the CSIPO and the USPTO, this paper compares the spatial distribution of innovative activity in China and the U.S. by methods such as rank-frequency, concentration and classification. The results show that the invention patents have experienced rapid growth and significant fluctuation in recent years in China, while the United States has been relatively stable. The spatial diversity of patent distribution in China is more obvious than in the United States. There is a concentrated trend of innovative activities in both China and the United States from the inland areas to the coastal regions.     

房地产市场的过度繁荣:日本与美国的比较

从上世纪80年代末日本和美国的次贷危机比较来看,至少可以得出两个结论:一是房地产市场的过度繁荣,往往是一国经济增长动力减弱之际,而又过度利用金融资源之故;二是次贷市场的发展和扭曲不是次贷危机爆发的根本原因。金融体系有内在的扩张和不稳定性,在现代金融体系下,房地产市场放任自由的发展,其后果往往是投机盛行和被过度金融化,从而导致经济主体过度负债和实质意义上的"次贷",并危及实体经济的平稳运行。