Building Small City and Town Sams and CGE Models

In this paper we attempt to describe both the data sources and organizational methods that allow for effective and easily created SAMs and regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. Small cities of around 100,000 people will face very different constraints than a town of 2000 people. Unfortunately, most CGE models typically describe relatively large geographical areas and are therefore not able to capture the uniqueness of individual cities within the region. An illustrative example using these methods demonstrates that the economic impacts vary substantially over different municipalities to the same economic shock.     

THE TRANSPORT SECTOR AND REGIONAL PRICE DIFFERENTIALS: A SPATIAL CGE MODEL FOR CHINESE PROVINCES

With regression formulas replaced by equilibrium conditions, a spatial CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model can substantially reduce data requirements. Detailed regional analyses are thus possible in countries where only limited regional statistics are available. Alhough regional price differentials play important roles in multiregional settings, transport does not receive much attention in existing models. This paper formulates a spatial CGE model that explicitly considers the transport sector and FOB/CIF prices. After describing the model, the performance of our model is evaluated by comparing the benchmark equilibrium for China with a survey-based interregional I-O table for 1987. The structure of Chinese economies is summarized using information obtained from the benchmark equilibrium computation. This includes regional and sectoral production distributions and price differentials. The equilibrium for 1997 facilitates discussion of changes in regional economic structures that China has experienced in the decade.     

The Influence of Geography on the Spatial Agglomeration of Production in the European Union

Abstract

Small regions and towns often experience problems such as high out-migration and unemployment. In these situations there is an urgent need to do something positive. Infrastructure development projects, partially financed by the national government, are a popular suggestion. We ponder the relevance of these actions in this paper in a context of project evaluation. We introduce computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling as a complement of the other quantitative evaluation techniques. We will use the town of Lapua in South Ostrobothnia, Finland, which is planning to implement two large-scale infrastructure projects, as an example. Our simulation tool is the Finnish multi-sector and interregional CGE RegFin model. We consider the regional short-run effects of the construction phase, the long-run effects of new business activity and the so-called secondary effects based on the commuting and trade patterns of the households.     

CGE EVALUATION OF A UNIVERSITY'S EFFECTS ON A REGIONAL ECONOMY: AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF EXPENDITURE AND KNOWLEDGE IMPACTS

In recent years many universities have commissioned studies of the effects of their institutions on their local economies. Typically, these impact studies have concentrated on the demand-side stimuli to the regional economy that the university generates. Normally, the studies are undertaken with comparative-static input-output models. The present study employs a dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium model to investigate supply-side as well as demand-side effects. There are a range of supply-side effects that have been investigated in the spatial econometrics literature. The supply-side impacts of the university that we examine in particular are a rise in the average skill level of the local workforce, and successful R&D outcomes. CGE modelling allows simulation of the associated productivity effects, while the dynamic features of the model allow for consequent effects on a region's population and capital stock growth rates to be taken into account.     

USING A CGE MODEL TO IDENTIFY THE POLICY TRADE-OFF BETWEEN UNEMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION. THE EFFICIENT PHILLIPS CURVE

This paper provides a new reading of a classical economic relation: the short-run Phillips curve. Our point is that, when dealing with inflation and unemployment, policy-making can be understood as a multicriteria decision-making problem. Hence, we use so-called multiobjective programming in connection with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to determine the combinations of policy instruments that provide efficient combinations of inflation and unemployment. This approach results in an alternative version of the Phillips curve labelled as efficient Phillips curve. Our aim is to present an application of CGE models to a new area of research that can be especially useful when addressing policy exercises with real data. We apply our methodological proposal within a particular regional economy, Andalusia, in the south of Spain. This tool can give some keys for policy advice and policy implementation in the fight against unemployment and inflation.     

An Application of an Integrated Transport Network– Multiregional CGE Model: a Framework for the Economic Analysis of Highway Projects

This paper develops a framework for the economic analysis of highway projects that is then used to estimate the dynamic economic effects of a highway project on the economic growth and the regional disparity in Korea. The framework is composed of a transport model and a multiregional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The transport model measures a change in interregional shortest distances and the accessibility due to the highway project. The CGE model estimates the spatial economic effects of the project on GDP, the price, exports, and the regional distribution of wages and population. The simulation allows policy makers to determine which highway development deserves the priority for investment, based on consideration of economic growth and regional economic equity in the long run. The simulation found that all the highway projects have positive effects on GDP and export growth as well as regional equity in terms of wage and population.     

ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION OF ARMINGTON IMPORT ELASTICITIES FOR A REGIONAL CGE MODEL OF THE ILLINOIS ECONOMY

One of the main concerns associated with the development and use of regional CGE models is the determination of key parameter values, particularly substitution and other price elasticities. A common problem is the lack of appropriate regional data for econometric estimation. Consequently, it is important to identify key parameters that are likely to be important in determining quantitative results and then to prioritize these for estimation where appropriate data are available. In this paper, the focus is on the estimation of the regional trade (import) substitution parameters, which tend to be important in analysis for regional economies (given their openness to trade). Here, commodity import elasticities for the Illinois economy are estimated and tested in a single region CGE model of the Illinois economy. In our econometric estimation, we apply a model that takes account of market size and distance in estimating the substitutability between commodities produced in Illinois and other US states.     

‘Policies in Motion’, Urban Management and State Restructuring: The Trans‐Local Expansion of Business Improvement Districts

This article examines the ways in which business improvement districts are being introduced into UK cities. In advancing this analysis, the focus here is on the means through which one or two Manhattan business improvement districts have been constructed as ‘models’ of urban management, taken out of their particular local/regional and national contexts and introduced into a diverse set of local political economic contexts in UK cities and towns. Examining the way business improvement districts have become a policy in motion, the article sketches out the emergence of entrepreneurial urban governance arrangements in the UK as part of the state's changing spatiality in the industrialized economies of Western Europe and North America. I argue that these changes make UK cities and towns increasingly receptive to the business improvement district model of downtown management. Seeking to move beyond the sometimes rather one‐sided representations of policies that find themselves on the move, the article seeks to connect the ‘exporting’ and ‘importing’ zones of policy transfer, arguing for an open and permeable conceptualization of these places. It draws on work in Manhattan, New York to unpack the nature of the political–economic relations that business improvement districts were part of, before moving on to examine the dynamics of policy transfer and the early days of the introduction of this downtown ‘model’ into UK cities.     

EVALUATING SUPPLY-SIDE AND DEMAND-SIDE SHOCKS FOR FISHERIES: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM (CGE) MODEL FOR ALASKA

This study used computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to investigate the economic effects of three exogenous shocks to Alaska fisheries: (1) reduction in pollock allowable catch (TAC); (2) increase in fuel price; and (3) reduction in demand for seafood. Two different model versions, ‘Keynesian’ and ‘neoclassical’, were used to estimate impacts on endogenous output, employment, value added, and household income. By using a CGE model, this study overcomes the limitations of fixed-price models (such as input–output models) including (1) inability to calculate welfare effects due to fixed prices; and (2) difficulty of addressing supply-side shocks. There are currently few examples of CGE studies addressing fisheries issues appearing in the literature. Among those, this study is unique in that it uses a relatively disaggregated sector scheme and examines both supply-side and demand-side shocks.     

COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS FOR DEVELOPMENT POLICY ANALYSIS IN LDCs

Abstract. The use of CGE models has gained much popularity among policy analysts in LDCs and there is a fast growing body of literature on this area of economics. In this survey, the advantages of general equilibrium approach over partial equilibrium approach in analysing a wide range of policy issues are highlighted. The evolution of CGE modelling is discussed and more than 60 CGE applications related to different policy issues in LDCs are surveyed. This comprehensive survey shows that the CGE models have become quite popular analytical tools among policy analysts in LDCs over the last decade or so. The debate in the economic profession regarding the value and appropriateness of using CGE models for policy analysis is examined in the final section of this paper. Some of the criticisms levelled at CGE models are discussed and it is argued that despite this criticism such models are capable of providing insight into important policy problems.     

Interregional Input–Output Modelling in Indonesia: A Constrained Growth Rate Approach with Endogenous Investment

In interregional input–output (IO) models, investment can be endogenized in many different ways, varying from dynamic Leontief-type solutions to computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. However, large versions of these models are difficult to implement because of the absence of the required data. In this paper, a different, less data-demanding treatment of regional investment is presented for an interregional IO forecasting model in which a simultaneous solution is given for regional GDP by industry, on the one hand, and for regional aggregate investment, on the other hand. In this way, investment plays its role as a disaggregate demand factor by industry and region, as well as being an aggregate supply constraint on regional capital stock at the same time. Some empirical results are presented for a 27-region model in Indonesia, which has been used by the government during the preparations for the new national 5-year plan for 1994–1999.     

REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AND ITS IMPACTS ON GROWTH, POVERTY AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION: THE CASE OF VIETNAM

Trade liberalization and regional economic integration have recently accelerated in East Asia, where several free trade areas have been established or are under negotiation. Vietnam, after acquiring Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) membership in 1995, has signed a bilateral trade package with the United States and participated in the China-ASEAN free trade area. This paper attempts to analyze the impact on Vietnam of ongoing regional economic integration, focusing on growth, poverty reduction and income distribution. For this purpose, we have constructed a globally linked Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and made use of Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database version 6.0 and Vietnam's living standards surveys. The simulation analysis shows that the regional economic integration generally has a positive impact. It both enhances welfare and improves income-distribution for Vietnam. Household income and consumption increase, and poor and rural household groups benefit more than urban high income groups.     

论现代中心城市的经济价值

现代中心城市在引导区域经济发展和带领周边城市进步的过程中体现出巨大的经济价值。本文深入探讨了现代中心城市经济价值的构成,建立了评价中心城市经济价值的指标体系,初步提出了评价中心城市经济价值的方法和思路。     

城乡统筹背景下重庆市近郊区小城镇规划的探讨——上海“一城九镇”建设对重庆的启示

城市区域化和区域城市化成为一种趋势,大城市近郊区的小城镇具有良好的区位优势,作为联系城乡的纽带,拥有更多的发展机遇.以上海市"一城九镇"的规划建设经验为参照,以城乡统筹发展为导向,寻求一种适合自身特色的重庆市近郊区小城镇开发建设模式.     

The shrinking mining city: urban dynamics and contested territory

Shrinking mining cities — once prosperous settlements servicing a mining site or a system of mining sites — are characterized by long-term population and/or economic decline. Many of these towns experience periods of growth and shrinkage, mirroring the ebbs and flows of international mineral markets which determine the fortunes of the dominant mining corporation upon which each of these towns heavily depends. This dependence on one main industry produces a parallel development in the fluctuations of both workforce and population. Thus, the strategies of the main company in these towns can, to a great extent, determine future developments and have a great impact on urban management plans. Climate conditions, knowledge, education and health services, as well as transportation links, are important factors that have impacted on lifestyles in mining cities, but it is the parallel development with the private sector operators (often a single corporation) that constitutes the distinctive feature of these cities and that ultimately defines their shrinkage. This article discusses shrinking mining cities in capitalist economies, the factors underpinning their development, and some of the planning and community challenges faced by these cities in Australia, Canada, Japan and Mexico.     

DETERMINANTS OF CITY GROWTH AND OUTPUT IN INDIA

To investigate what determines urban population and economic growth, the determinants of urban population growth and economic output in India are examined empirically. City growth and economic output regressions are estimated using several approaches. Since only growing areas are usually designated as towns, the urban population of districts that are larger geographical areas than cities are estimated. It is found that, at the district level, manufacturing has a positive impact on city size, and proximity to large cities causes nearby cities to be larger, reflecting agglomeration effects.     

县域经济的发展与城市化进程的推进——关于沈阳和大连的实证分析

以辽宁省的沈阳和大连为例,通过聚类分析和因子分析对沈阳和大连所属的县域城市竞争力作对比.实证分析表明,沈阳和大连的县域经济差异显著.因此,壮大县域经济是沈阳当前乃至今后的迫切任务.应通过产业结构升级、加快基础设施建设等措施发展县域经济,将县级城市作为其中心城市的卫星城,为城市化的发展注入新的活力.     

关于我国中等城市发展问题的探讨--兼论京津冀地区中等城市的成长

在对我国中等城市发展研究回顾的基础上,结合国际上对中等城市的研究进展,以京津冀地区为例探讨我国中等城市发展的相关问题:中等城市可以包括除特大城市和一般小城镇之外的所有城市;在确定中等城市时,应从"次区域发展中心"的角度进行综合分析和研究论证,以形成更加合理的区域城镇网络;中等城市的发展应更加突出个性,加强特色建设.     

改革开放30年我国小城镇的发展

改革开放三十年,我国小城镇获得了飞速发展,在拉动区域经济发展、转移农村人口和提升我国城市化水平等方面发挥了功不可没的作用.如今,我国经济发展已经到了一个新的历史时期,在工业化方面,进入到工业化的中后期;在城市化方面,城市化速度较快;在生产方面,逐步进入一个IT支撑的时代;在消费方面,逐渐来到了一个高档耐用消费品占主导地位的时期.面对这样的新时期,不仅需要对我国小城镇发展的功过得失做个基本的判断,更需要为我国小城镇的进一步发展提出建设性的意见.