打造中长期经济增长新动力

2021年,是"十四五"开局之年,也是奔向"2035年远景目标"起步之年.在中国人均GDP水平刚达到世界平均水平(为美国的五分之一)这样一个历史阶段,中国经济还有巨大的需求可以被释放.对于如何打造中国中长期经济增长新动力,我们有三点建议.     

推动新疆棉花产业稳定高效发展

一、中国及新疆棉花产业在经济领域中的地位 （一）中国宏观经济现状及发展趋势 1、中国经济持续保持高速发展势头 党的十七大提出,2020年将实现中国人均国内生产总值比2000年翻两番,中国人均GDP将达3500美元左右;2020年中国GDP总值将超过80万亿元。2006年中国GDP总值20．94万亿元;按2007—2020年中国年均经济增长10-12％测算,中国经济增长将实现每7年翻一番。     

中国人均GDP时间序列建模与相关分析

人均GDP是衡量一个国家和地区经济发展水平和综合经济实力的重要指标。本文在相关背景下收集了1978-2008年中国人均GDP时间序列数据,应用了SPSS软件进行数据分析并建立时间序列模型,利用模型预测了2009,2010年人均GDP数值,对制定相应的宏观调控政策有十分重要的意义。     

减速的宿命

四年前中国就触碰到了人均GDP7000美元的"魔幻数字",如今减速的命运真的来了。想摆脱吗?出路只能是三选一2010年中国经济总量超过日本之后,紧接着的问题自然是:中国何日超过美国,成为世界第一大经济体?国际货币基金组织(IMF)的预测,中国按照购买力平价(PPP)计算的GDP总量,将从2011年的11.3万亿美元增长为201 6年的19万亿美元,占世界经济总量的18%。而此期间,美国则从15.2万亿美     

中国走向共享式经济发展

在世界现代史上，中国的快速经济增长和发展无人能及。过去长达30年的时间里，其GDP增长率超过9％，人均GDP增长超过8％，促进了社会发展和贫困人口福利的大幅改善。     

森林资源与经济发展水平的关系分析

自然资源与经济发展的关系一直以来都广受学者们的关注,其涵义是指自然资源的丰裕与经济增长呈现负相关关系。即自然资源对经济增长非但没有起到积极作用,反而成了经济发展过程中的陷阱。本文选取了反映我国森林资源数量和质量的指标数据及人均GDP数据,定量分析了反映我国森林资源数量与质量的各项指标与人均GDP之间的关系。实证研究表明:森林资源的变化和经济增长之间呈现出多重形式的关系。     

江苏 一个经济大省的“逆袭”

江苏经济的快速发展或许有其独特的区位优势和特点,然而,对处于转型期的中国社会而言,无疑具有特殊的借鉴意义江苏正成为中国的一极。2012年江苏GDP增长10.1%,超过5.4万亿元人民币,人均GDP突破1万美元。江苏人均GDP自2010年起超越浙江居中国各省区之首,而在中国省市地区生产总值排     

中国经济发展的成就、问题及对策

2003年,中国经济取得了举世公认的重大成就,GDP增长率达到9.1％,比国际组织预测的全球及主要国家的经济增速高2倍左右,经济总规模超过1.4万多亿美元,居世界第六位,人均GDP达到1,090美元。财政金融形势良好,在目前全世界的金融市场中,只有中国的银行业在以20％的速度增长,中国的金融储蓄率达40％,并且有320     

宏观调控与中国经济持续增长

一、中国经济增长达到的阶段及特点据统计,截至去年年底,我国的GDP总额达到十三万六千多亿人民币,按官方汇率折合美元一万六千五百多亿美元,总量在世界排名第七。但是众所周知,由于中国人口基数大,人均水平一直是一个问题。我国在2003年首次人均GDP超过了一千美元,达到一千零九十美元。2004我国人均GDP增长9.5%,达到一千二百多美元。按照世界银行的划分标准,属于下中等发展中国家。可以看出,通过20多年的发展,我国实现了阶段性的转变,由低收入的穷国转变为下中等收入的发展中国家。但是,用GDP衡量一个国家的经济发展水平具有一定的局限…     

企业家才能配置对中国经济增长的影响

本文针对中国29个省域地区1997—2012年的面板数据,研究企业家才能配置对中国经济增长的影响。结果发现,企业家才能的生产性配置和非生产性配置对中国的经济增长分别产生了显著的正向影响和负向影响。这一估计结果在控制了可能影响经济增长的其他经济变量和人口变量后依然是稳健的。平均而言,个体就业比例每增长1个百分点,将使该地区当年的人均GDP增长1.511%;国有就业比例每增长1个百分点,将使该地区当年的人均GDP降低0.418%。本文的结论表明能否制定有利于企业家才能生产性配置的制度和政策对于经济的长期持续发展是至关重要的。     

What has caused China’s economic growth?

Economic growth is driven by numerous factors. However, traditional economic theory focuses on certain key reasons, while ignoring the impact of other factors. Since 1978, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth, but also faces low per capita GDP. To clarify the driving forces behind this situation, we used per capita GDP to represent China’s economic growth and performed total factor analysis based on 13 variables in 7 socioeconomic dimensions using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces over the 40 years since China opened to the west in 1978. We found similar determinants in different regressions. Internal trade, privatization and investment were the primary factors driving Chinese economic development. Surprisingly, we found that the contribution of foreign trade to economic growth (per capita GDP) was weak. Education had a much smaller contribution than science and technology. Using per capita income as the dependent variable to provide a robustness test, we found that China’s income distribution has not paralleled its economic development and the distribution of the benefits of GDP growth to citizens must be improved. China’s experience demonstrates that promoting economic growth requires coordinated development of many factors, and that different policy preferences should be adopted to meet different economic development conditions.     

区域智力资本与区域经济发展

本文通过评价2006年我国31个省(直辖市、自治区)的区域智力资本水平来探索其对区域经济发展的作用.研究发现,区域智力资本与区域经济发展具有较强的正相关性,并且区域智力资本每提高1%GDP则提高0.815%,区域智力资本的构成要素,即区域人力资本、区域关系资本、区域结构资本和区域创新资本也都与区域经济发展有着显著的正相关关系,但它们在对经济发展的贡献度上存在一定的差异性.     

基于幸福感视角的北川旅游经济发展研究

影响幸福的因素有很多,例如经济、婚姻、国家政策.但在北川这个经济和人均GDP还不发达的地区,通过发展旅游促进经济发展、提高人民收入仍然是提高当地百姓幸福感的最有效途径.     

人均收入差距导向的投资战略

除了税收手段直接调整人均收入差距之外,政府可利用投资配置来影响生产过程,进而调整人均收入差距。在总量封闭经济的框架下,本文以人均收入差距最小化为目标,通过引入多地区多产业Cobb-Douglas生产函数、劳动一资本比率、资本时变率,改造最优经济增长模型。实验表明,通过权衡不同地区、不同产业的重要程度,调整投资在不同地区、不同产业之间的配置比率,政府可缩小人均收入差距。     

Development threshold,capital flows,and financial turbulence

We study capital flows in a panel of 130 countries, and derive the implications for the observed patterns of capital flows and capital controls before and into the crisis of 2008–11. We find that the size of capital flows is positively correlated with country's income level. In addition, capital flight has a non-linear relationship with the income level. Using the Hansen threshold estimation, we identify a three-stage threshold effect: for low-income countries (GDP per capita below US$ 3,000), capital flight increases as the income level rises; and only after the economy passes a threshold level (GDP per capita above US$ 5,000), capital flight declines with income. We conclude with a case study of Brazil and Korea, observing that the decisions to implement capital control measures tend to be pushed around by the feedbacks among economic growth, currency appreciation, and the global financial conditions.     

CORRUPTION'S DIRECT EFFECTS ON PER‐CAPITA INCOME GROWTH: A META‐ANALYSIS

Corruption is a symptom of weak institutional quality and could have potentially adverse effects on economic growth. However, heterogeneity in reported findings makes it difficult to synthesize the evidence base with a view to test competing hypotheses and/or support evidence‐based policy and practice. To address this issue, we have extracted 327 estimates of corruption's direct effect on per‐capita GDP growth from 29 primary studies, following a peer‐reviewed and pre‐published systematic review protocol. Precision‐effect and funnel asymmetry tests indicate that corruption has a negative effect on per‐capita GDP growth after controlling for publication selection bias and within‐study dependence. However, multivariate meta‐regression analysis results indicate that the overall effect is not robust to inclusion of moderating variables through a general‐to‐specific procedure for model specification. We report that the marginal effect of corruption on per‐capita GDP growth is more adverse when the primary study estimates relate to long‐run growth, are based on low‐income‐country data only, and extracted from journal papers. The effect is less adverse in studies that use the International Country Risk Guide corruption perceptions index and in those reporting estimates from two‐stage least‐squares estimations.     

Environmental taxes,reforms and economic growth: an empirical analysis of panel data

This paper explores the relationship between environmentally related taxes and the economic growth rate. The analysis also investigates whether this relationship differs between countries that have implemented environmental tax reforms (ETRs) and those that have not. Using panel data from 31 OECD countries over the period 1994–2013, the paper finds that when we allow environmentally related tax revenues to interact with an initial level of real GDP per capita, the overall revenues of these taxes are negatively associated with the economic growth rate in the short and long term. Furthermore, we show that the higher the initial level of GDP per capita, the more environmentally related tax revenues can promote the economic growth rate. The analysis also reveals that the relationship between environmentally related tax revenues and economic growth varies between countries that have a mechanism to redistribute environmentally related tax revenues and those that do not.     

Impact of China's currency valuation and labour cost on the US in a trade and exchange rate model

Ricardian dynamic general equilibrium analyses show that under free trade arrangements a low income country with lower wage cost and large endowment of labour has comparative advantage in trade. Efficiency gains from this enhance economic growth and welfare of households simultaneously in both low income and advanced economies. Theoretical predictions are empirically validated here with structural VAR analysis based on quarterly data over the time period 1995:1 to 2009:1 on China's relative wage cost, interest rate differential, real effective exchange rate (REER), relative GDP and the US current account balance. It is shown how the relative prices of labour, capital and the currency affect the economic activity in China and current account balance in the US. With free capital inflows and outflows and restrictions on labour mobility, comparative advantage of China and the trade deficit of the US will both be minimised if China allows real appreciation of the Yuan and complete adjustment in prices. Higher production cost and prices in China could reduce welfare of Chinese households and the trade imbalance of the US, while higher relative GDP of China lowers the current account balance for the US.     

保险业发展与经济增长的多重均衡

本文在拉姆齐—卡斯—库普曼斯框架下构建了保险业发展影响经济增长的理论模型,模型显示保险业发展与经济增长之间存在门槛效应和多重均衡现象,在保险业发达情形下,经济增长和保险业发展相互促进,保险业不发达情形中经济增长存在低水平陷阱。在理论分析的基础上,以寿险业为例,运用中国各省市1999~2010年的面板数据,通过面板数据门槛回归估计的结果显示：寿险业发展可以促进经济增长;随着人均GDP和保险密度进入更高的区制,寿险业发展对经济增长的促进作用显著提高;当相对寿险深度跨越更高的门槛值后,寿险业促进经济增长的程度降低。     

The Millennium Survey: How Economists View the U.S. Economy in the 21st Century

This essay presents the results of a survey of AEA members on how they expect the U.S. economy to evolve in the next 50 years. More specifically, respondents were asked about changes in a variety of macroeconomic variables and whether such changes would lead to major changes in the economic system or important economic institutions. For the next quarter century, for instance, the respondents foresee the greatest deviation from current trends occurring with regard to growth of per capita GDP, volatility of the financial system, and globalization. They also predict that changes in the economic system will most likely come about from the impact of increasing globalization, increasing inequality of income, and increasing financial instability.