关于美国家庭高负债消费问题的探讨

美国是个家庭高负债消费的国家,本文在追溯美国家庭负债消费历史渊源的基础上,分析了近二十年美国家庭负债消费带来的主要问题,发现近十几年以来美国家庭负债消费明显扩大,2001年以后在低利率政策和资产泡沫之下负债消费逐渐脱离收入上升轨道而依赖于资产价值的增长;重贷套现政策鼓励家庭增加负债,消费住房;债务负担越来越绑定在中低收入家庭身上。这些问题是应当引起我们充分注意的。     

消费需求与国内旅游消费需求的周期性波动同步吗——基于MS-VAR模型时变特征的分析

系统把握消费需求与国内旅游消费需求的周期运行规律与联动机制,是提升我国消费需求与旅游消费需求的协同增长水平、促进需求结构转型升级的关键。文章基于宏观动态演进视角,构建马尔科夫区制转移向量自回归模型（MS-VAR）,通过变量协整分析、模型拟合、周期阶段划分以及格兰杰因果关系检验等动态计量分析过程探究二者周期联动规律。结果证实,消费需求与国内旅游消费需求的周期波动具有同步性,且这一关系形式实则是消费需求周期波动引发旅游消费需求同步变动的结果。文章认为,二者周期同步变动本质上是经济转型过程中,消费结构根据实际购买力水平和消费倾向,不断变更总体消费规模和服务型消费比重,以实现整体消费与局部支出协同增长的自组织与他组织过程。增强二者协同增长水平和推动消费结构优化转型,则需要产业政策与消费政策的共同调节和适时引导。     

中国分部门债务水平与经济增长关系研究：1997—2012

运用单位根、协整和VECM的检验方法,实证检验了中国分部门家庭债务与经济增长之间的关系。结果表明：家庭债务、公共债务和企业债务与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,家庭债务的积累会抑制经济增长,而公共债务和企业债务的增加会促进经济增长,企业债务对经济增长的影响大于公共债务对其影响。     

中国分部门债务水平与经济增长关系研究:1997-2012

运用单位根、协整和VECM的检验方法,实证检验了中国分部门家庭债务与经济增长之间的关系。结果表明:家庭债务、公共债务和企业债务与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,家庭债务的积累会抑制经济增长,而公共债务和企业债务的增加会促进经济增长,企业债务对经济增长的影响大于公共债务对其影响。     

如何客观看待消费需求增长趋势

受国际金融危机和国内经济调整的影响,2008年我国经济增长9％,增速比上年大幅下滑。在经济连续减速的同时,反映消费变化的重要指标——消费品零售额呈现持续增长的态势。据此有观点认为,消费呈现与经济不同步的反周期走势,消费有可能独立于经济变化,继续保持旺盛态势成为拉动经济增长的主力。本文通过深入客观、多角度地分析消费需求的变化,认为消费需求在本轮经济调整中受到的冲击不亚于其他指标,当前消费需求与经济增长仍保持基本同步变化的变化规律,扩大消费需求任重道远。     

家庭服务性消费支出的决定因素——基于中国城镇住户调查数据的实证检验

加快发展现代服务业已成为推动我国需求增长和经济结构战略性调整的重要环节。本文采用2009年和2002年中国六个省份与直辖市的城镇住户调查数据对家庭总服务性消费与各分项服务性消费的决定因素进行了实证检验与扩展分析,发现家庭收入、家庭生命周期阶段、家庭人口性别结构及家庭其他特征变量和城镇人口规模等因素均对我国居民家庭总服务性消费需求和分项服务性消费需求有显著影响,但我国潜在的服务性消费需求还远没有转化为现实需求。本文认为应通过促进产业结构转型升级,改善服务消费条件和环境,提高居民消费意愿,形成一批人口规模适度的城镇,以此促进家庭服务性消费和消费性服务业的发展;更多关注女性的就业和受教育环境,提高女性就业机会和受教育年限,有利于促进居民服务性消费的增长。     

家庭债务消费能力下降中国经济总需求将自我紧缩

债务杠杆所支撑的住宅投资和轿车消费构成了这一轮总需求扩张的原动力。中国家庭自2002年以来第一次开启了大规模的债务消费，但随着2004年的大规模债务消费和生活必需品价格的上涨，家庭部门进行债务消费的能力目前已大为削弱。债务消费增速的放慢将使房地产市场的繁荣自然消退，而且中国经济的总需求也将开始自我紧缩，未来的景象可能是：经济增长速度放慢、企业盈利状况普遍恶化、股市继续下跌。     

促进经济增长的中国政府最优债务率测算

通过构建跨期模型来探讨一国债务与经济增长的关系。理论分析表明,一国债务与经济增长之间存在倒U形关系,即在一定条件下,当一国的债务低于最优值时,提高债务对经济增长具有促进作用,而当债务超过这一最优值时,增加债务则对经济增长具有副作用。在理论分析的基础上,构建了线性时间序列模型,基于中国样本数据证实了中国政府债务与中国经济增长之间倒U形关系的存在,并测算出现阶段中国政府最优债务率约为47％。这一结论表明：中国政府债务目前尚处于合理范围,虽然长期来看中国政府债务的提升空间已不大,但短期内进一步提升的空间犹存,这为中国政府充分运用财政政策提升尚处于探底阶段的中国经济预留了政策空间。     

家庭生命周期视角下城乡居民教育回报率变动研究

在当前老龄化与少子化以及鼓励生育政策形势下,家庭的自然发展演变带来更多家庭需求,居民为家庭提供更多支持和照顾成为普遍现象,居民教育回报率可能因此面临波动甚至下降风险,城乡之间还可能因社会经济环境以及个体家庭差异而不同。引入反映城乡家庭自然发展规律的家庭生命周期理论,基于明瑟收入方程测量教育回报率,应用中国家庭金融调查数据构建Heckman两阶段模型,探讨家庭生命周期对居民教育回报率的影响并总结城乡差异,通过分位数回归进一步解释教育回报率变化的收入异质性。结果表明,家庭生命周期后半程对居民教育回报率产生显著影响,对农村居民的影响尤为明显;当家庭周期自然演变后,居民教育回报率随着家庭需求增加而持续降低,农村居民变化程度强于城市居民。收入异质性表明,城乡低收入居民相比其他居民更容易受家庭周期影响而发生教育回报率下降;中高收入居民的教育回报率随家庭周期而变化的城乡差异始终存在。建议在城乡发展政策以及乡村振兴战略中纳入养老与托育等家庭发展保障,减少家庭需求对教育回报的挤出效应。     

战后美国居民住房消费变化及其发展趋势

自二战结束以来,购置房产不仅成为居民积累财富的重要方式,同时也是拉动美国经济增长的动力之一。受居民收入增长、人口结构变化、信贷扩张及财富效应的影响,美国居民住房消费支出明显上升。本文旨在通过对不同群体的考察,揭示战后以来居民住房消费的变化特征,并对2008年金融危机爆发后美国居民住房消费变化及其发展趋势进行预测分析。     

Keeping Up With the Joneses: Analyzing the Effect of Income Inequality on Consumer Borrowing

Household debt relative to disposable income increased from 60% in 1980 to 104% at the end of 2003. ‘Buying on credit’ has become so popular that an increasing number of firms generate more profit from financing than from selling their products. In this paper, we show that rising income inequality has substantially contributed to increased consumer borrowing. Income inequality affects all components of total household debt, but the impact is strongest on non-revolving debt (installment loans), which is used to finance the purchase of consumer durables. We argue and provide evidence that the income inequality effect on consumer borrowing is a result of conspicuous consumption. Rising income inequality has forced households with smaller income gains to use debt to keep up their consumption level relative to households with larger income gains.JEL Classification: D12, G29, J31, M30     

Idiosyncratic use of credit facilities by consumers in an emerging economy

A worldwide increase in household debt since the turn of the century has created considerable concern about the indebtedness of households, especially those in emerging economies that have been hit particularly hard by the global economic slump. In this study, the credit consumption of consumers in Swaziland (N = 264) was investigated by means of a survey that aimed to identify and describe factors that encouraged consumers' use of credit, the influence of credit on their buying behaviour when choosing major household appliances or furniture as well as consumers' knowledge of the conditions of credit facilities that were available for their use in retail. Findings revealed that consumers unequivocally appreciate the convenience that is associated with credit, specifically to cope with unexpected purchases, to benefit from special offers and opportunity to afford expensive goods. These advantages apparently negate the negative consequences such as high interest rates and strain on household budgets. Mean scores that were obtained in the knowledge test that only reflected upon credit agreements that respondents have actually entered into in the past, confirmed their ignorance pertaining to their contractual obligations and their consequent vulnerability. Consumers' age and gender seem to have noteworthy consequences for efforts to enhance informed consumer decision‐making. Younger females were significantly better informed that their older counterpart while the reverse was true for males, although differences were not significant. The significant inverse relationship between income and the LS‐means for the credit knowledge test differ from findings in developed countries and provide valuable opportunity for further investigation.     

Examining the impact of consumer debt on parent-child interaction

The purpose of this study was to examine the possible relationship between consumer debt and several aspects of parent-child interaction, namely time spent by parents with their child(ren). affectionate interaction between parents and children and disciplinary parent-child interaction. A small, positive relationship was found between consumer debt and disciplinary parent-child interaction. No meaningful relationship was found between consumer debt and parental time spent with child(ren) or affectionate parental-child interaction. Age and number of children are more reliable correlates of parent-child interaction than is amount of household consumer debt.     

The pauper wears prada? How debt stress promotes luxury consumption

Being in debt prevails in the modern society, but little is known about the behavioral consequences of being under debt stress. Based on compensatory consumption theory, this paper examined how debt stress affects people's consumption behavior. Through a survey and three lab experiments, we found that: (1) debt stress increases consumers' luxury consumption intentions; (2) perceived status demotion mediates this relationship, such that debt stress leads to perceived status demotion, which in turn enhances consumers' luxury consumption intentions; (3) lay rationalism moderates this relationship, such that the positive relationship between debt stress and luxury consumption is stronger among less rational consumers. We concluded by discussing the theoretical and managerial implications of our findings.     

海峡两岸经济周期协动性的现状与趋势

利用中国大陆和台湾地区GDP增长率反映海峡两岸的经济周期波动,针对二者的相关分析表明,1990年以来,海峡两岸经济周期已经呈现一定程度的协动性特征,并且这种协动性具有不断增强的趋势。在经济周期协动性的传导机制方面,直观判断,两岸贸易往来与台商对大陆投资是经济周期波动的重要传导渠道,但世界市场经济景气波动的冲击影响也不容忽视。由于受两岸经济规模和结构的差异、两岸经贸交流的不对称性、大陆对外开放程度较低、以及经济运行规律之外政治干扰和政策限制等因素的影响,两岸经济周期协动性还未完全呈现其应有规模。     

Macroeconomic policy cooperation and the G20

Has the G20 achieved its goals in macroeconomic cooperation since 2008? The paper organises the G20's efforts under five themes: macroeconomic stimulus, fiscal consolidation, monetary policy, the global financial safety net and global imbalances. The G20 was initially successful in each of these areas, but this success was short‐lived. While the G20 met its goals on macroeconomic stimulus, it has been less successful in reducing deficits and debt. While it was successful in increasing its resources, the global financial safety net remains too small, too fragmented and institutional reform is incomplete. While the G20 succeeded in moving to more market‐determined exchange rates and avoiding competitive devaluations, it struggled to avoid negative spillovers. Despite years of effort, the G20 has made limited progress in reducing global imbalances. Current account imbalances are creeping back to pre‐crisis levels. Public debt remains high and most economies are moving in the wrong direction in correcting imbalances in household savings and debt. The paper concludes that the G20 has done better in some areas than others. But to suggest the G20 is a forum in decline ignores its shift from reactive crisis response to longer‐term structural challenges outside of the pressing need of an immediate crisis.     

Are Southern‐poor Countries’ Governments more Profligate than their Northern‐rich Counterparts? Fiscal Criteria and Impulse Responses

This study examines the health of public finances in different geographical regions by emphasising the discrepancies in North versus South and rich versus poor countries. The last decade's debt and deficit figures depicting a general fiscal consolidation across regions and income levels show signs of worsening. When the fiscal criteria are adjusted for cyclical factors, fiscal pressure appears in most countries since the end of the 1990s, but has been more persistent in poor countries, and in Asia. The dynamics of governments’ reaction to debt accumulation reveals, however, that most regions exhibit consistent anti‐debt policies to various degrees. The exception is the Latin American and Caribbean region where results suggest a lack of debt‐fighting policies. Among income categories, rich countries generate the highest primary surpluses when confronted with debt accumulation.     

The cyclical behavior of household and corporate credit in emerging economies

Standard consumption-investment theory predicts counter-cyclical (pro-cyclical) behavior of household (corporate) credit whereby households' consumption smoothing and firms' investment motives are aligned. Counter to the theoretical symbiosis consistent with U.S. data, we demonstrate not only in South Korea, but also in 19 emerging economies that the pro-cyclical behavior of household credit dominates that of corporate credit. Our analysis further reveals that dominant, pro-cyclical household credit accompanied by (collateral) assets and fueled by external debt generates counter-cyclical behavior in interest rates, amplifies credit market fluctuation, and hinders the growth of small- and medium-size businesses in the South Korean economy.     

Credit Card Indebtedness and Psychological Well‐Being Over Time: Empirical Evidence from a Household Survey

While a number of studies have investigated the relationship between debt and psychological well‐being, none so far has explored if and how this relationship evolves over time. We seek to fill this gap in the literature by empirically analyzing the impact of household credit card debt on debt stress. Using cross‐sectional data collected by The Ohio State University's Consumer Finance Monthly survey between August 2008 and December 2010, we construct a debt stress index and categorize households into three groups based on the length of credit card indebtedness. Our empirical results provide statistical evidence of time‐varying impacts of credit card debt on stress levels. Specifically, we find that debt stress for short‐run debtors is more than twice that of long‐run debtors. The results are robust across a range of econometric specifications.