Seasonal variability and a farmer’s supply response to protein premiums and discounts

This article extends the analysis of the impact of a system of protein premiums and discounts to that on a farmer’s planned production. Despite an unambiguously negative impact on expected profits of equally likely premiums and discounts, supply response to the introduction of such a system is shown to depend on the level of seasonal variability faced by the farmer. In particular, farmers in regions which are more seasonally unreliable are likely to feature a negative supply response, whereas those in regions which are more seasonally reliable are likely to feature a positive supply response. Consequently, it is suggested that, overall, protein payments for wheat may have encouraged a shift of wheat-growing activity away from more seasonally unreliable areas.     

Well‐off small‐scale tobacco growers and farm workers in the Mexican agrarian reform (1972–1990)

In this article, I study small‐scale growers of blonde tobacco varieties from the state of Nayarit in Mexico who had contract farming arrangements with the state‐owned company Tabamex (1972–1990). I refer to them as “well‐off small‐scale tobacco growers” given that in the 1960s, 1970s, and the 1980s, they became one of the subaltern social groups that benefited the most from the Mexican Agrarian Reform. I want to set this research apart from the ones carried out on tobacco growers in Nayarit, which have almost exclusively understood this group as agricultural producers and have perceived as secondary, and even as anecdotal, the impact of the high levels of wage labour hired in the region. I argue that in order to have a better understanding of the social relations at play, it is important to take into account that Nayarit tobacco growers have also been employers of farm workers. Hence in my analysis, I have also included the seasonal farm workers hired by these small‐scale tobacco growers because of their importance in the labour force. More specifically, I have looked into the vulnerability and invisibility of these workers both within this branch of agricultural activity and state institutions.     

水稻规模种植户持续种植意愿影响因素研究

[目的]水稻规模种植户在稳定水稻种植面积中起到关键性的作用,如何扶持和稳定规模种植户的持续种植粮食具有十分重要的战略意义。[方法]文章利用浙江省145户水稻规模种植户的调研数据,采用二元Logistic模型对水稻规模种植户的持续种植意愿进行了实证分析。[结果]单位面积平均土地租金和粮食生产总投入对持续种植意愿呈反向影响,粮食销售收入和田地质量提升的投入对持续种植意愿呈正向影响。高额的土地租金和不断增长的粮食生产投入,使得粮食生产收益不断下降,特别是对于具有一定规模的种植户而言,不得不选择消极的种植意愿;与此同时,较高的销售收入能带来较高的生产收益,使得规模种植户更愿意继续种植,而田地质量提升能带来较高的产出率,规模种植户对持续种植也将更有信心。[结论]据此提出降低水稻种植成本、稳定粮农正常收益、规范土地市场、引导农户提高田地投入等政策建议来稳定和激励水稻规模种植户持续种植,保障国家粮食安全。     

CHANGES IN CEREAL PRODUCTION AND YIELD VARIABILITY ON FARMS IN SOUTH EAST ENGLAND

Data from 16 wheat growers and 18 barley growers in South East England were investigated for changes in variability of production and yield between the periods 1964-74 and 1975-84. Sixteen per cent of the increase in variability of wheat production was due to changes in yield variances and covariances. The increase in variability of barley production was not statistically significant. Variability of yield increased for both wheat and barley. Wheat yields became more positively correlated between farms, but barley yields did not. The results for wheat were consistent with the hypothesis of an increase in the number of controlled factors in the production process. Particularly important was thought to be the use of fungicides in the control of many cereal diseases. Increased heterogeneity of the barley crop may have contributed to the decline in the number of between-farm correlations for that crop.     

Dynamic Interrelationships in Hard Wheat Basis Markets

Basis values for hard red spring (HRS) wheat have escalated radically, experienced extraordinary levels of volatility (risk), were subject to a squeeze during 2008, and all these have important implications for market participants. These are particularly important to marketers in the Northern Great Plains in the United States, as well as for Canadian marketers as they confront deregulation in wheat marketing and will be exposed to these risks. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dynamic relationships and interdependencies among terminal market basis values for milling. Specifically, we seek to identify factors impacting basis values for 13%, 14%, and 15% protein HRS wheat in addition to the intermarket wheat spread between Minneapolis and Kansas City wheat futures. We specify a vector autoregression (VAR) model to explore these relationships. Exogenous structural variables are specified in addition to dynamic interrelationships including seasonal and intertemporal variability and dynamic interdependencies among these markets and relationships. Results of interest are that: (1) basis values for these markets have been trending up and have become more volatile; (2) factors impacting this variability are the protein level in HRS, production of hard red winter (HRW), and Canadian wheat (on high protein basis); (3) HRW protein supplies are not significant in the basis equations, but, do impact the intermarket wheat futures spread; (4) quality factors have a significant impact on basis values, notably vomitoxin, falling numbers, and absorption. Dynamic interrelations are also important in that all prices converge quickly toward a long‐term equilibrium. In addition, there are seasonal impacts, dynamic basis interactions, trends, and lagged impacts of protein levels.     

The Amenity Value of Agricultural Landscape and Rural–Urban Land Allocation

We analyse rural–urban land allocation in the light of the increasing environmental role of agricultural landscapes. The landscape amenity value of farmland varies across crops and as a result affects the optimal crop mix in addition to its effect on rural–urban land allocation. Investigating the effects of population and income growth processes, we find that, contrary to market outcomes, the socially optimal allocation may call for more farmland preservation under both processes. In an empirical application to a region in Israel, we find that the extent of market under‐supply of farmland is substantial and that population growth calls for more farmland preservation at the expense of urban land.     

农机社会化服务对小麦生产技术效率的影响

目的 在中国土地规模经营和服务规模经营并重推进粮食作物效率提升背景下,进一步探讨农机社会化服务对小麦生产技术效率提升效应的规模异质性具有现实意义。方法 文章使用随机前沿分析和门限回归分析,利用2018年全国6省区小麦种植户经营情况,对农机社会化服务影响小麦生产技术效率及影响效果规模异质性进行研究。结果 农机社会化服务的采用有助于提升小麦生产技术效率;农机社会化服务对小麦生产技术效率存在门限效应,当农户经营规模低于门限值（0.293hm²）时,农机社会化服务对小麦生产技术效率不具有显著影响,跨越门限值后,农机社会化服务对小麦生产技术效率则具有正向影响效应。基于农户适度规模经营的情况下,农机社会化服务对中等规模（0.293hm²＜Area＜3.333hm²）农户的小麦生产技术效率具有显著正向影响。结论 农机社会化服务有助于提升中国小麦种植户技术效率,但受限于农户规模,推进农机社会化服务发展的同时仍然需要推动土地的适度规模经营。     

加入合作社对种粮大户农机投资及服务供给行为的影响分析

农业机械化水平是衡量现代农业发展程度的重要指标。以种粮大户、合作社等为代表的新型农业经营主体逐渐成为农机投资和提供农机服务的主力军。基于2018年江苏省686个种粮大户的微观调查数据,本文选用了多重跨栏模型并采用控制函数法实证检验了加入合作社对种粮大户农机投资与提供农机服务的影响。研究发现:相较于未加入合作社的种粮大户,加入合作社的种粮大户购买农机和提供农机作业服务的动机更强,户均农机作业服务供给水平更高。具体而言,加入合作社的种粮大户,其农机投资和提供农机作业服务的概率分别上升10.5和12.5个百分点,户均农机作业服务收益约增加3.382万元。由此,本文提出三点政策建议:一是引导种粮大户兼具生产性和服务性的双重功能,并鼓励合作社将种粮大户组织起来,共同开展农机服务。二是发挥合作社的组织优势,引导种粮大户投资相对短缺的农机装备。三是农机补贴向服务供给短缺的农机品种倾斜。     

Optimal Protein Segregation Strategies for Wheat Growers

A technology that can measure wheat grain protein concentration and then segregate grain based on measurements during harvesting is on the horizon. This new technology provides wheat growers with opportunities to segregate grain that can be directed to premium markets. In this article, we identify an individual grower's optimal segregation and blending strategies under non‐uniformly curved price schedules. When price schedules are three‐step shaped, we show that the optimal segregation and blending strategies can be obtained by solving a specified non‐linear programming problem. Based on cash price and protein distribution data for wheat in the U.S. Pacific Northwest region over 1991–2011, an application of our theoretical model shows that on average a Hard Red Winter (respectively, Hard Red Spring) wheat grower should be willing to pay about 17.7 (respectively, 30.8) cents for segregating one bushel of wheat. We also study how growers’ net returns would be affected were the technology to be adopted.     

河北省小麦生产成本收益分析

文章运用成本分析与文献分析相结合的研究方法,对2010~2014年河北省小麦生产中的生产成本、人工费用及土地成本等主要收益指标进行了细致分析,揭示了成本收益的变化规律。研究结果表明:导致河北省小麦生产成本过高的主要原因是物质与服务费中的化肥、机械费、燃油费及人工费用的不断攀升。同时在全国小麦市场价格的下行压力下,河北省又常常遭遇干旱、病虫害胁迫,致使全省单位面积小麦的纯收益跳跃幅度较大,小麦总体收益偏低。其中,2011年与2013年纯收益甚至出现负值。该文通过实际调研,提出了加强技术创新、提高种植小麦补贴标准、提高农业机械化水平、转变经营方式,积极推进小麦产业化、发展多种形式的深加工产业等对策。此外,在稳定产量的基础上,又提出降低成本,提高小麦单价,增加农民收益的建议,进而为河北省小麦生产的可持续发展提供参考依据。     

基于Logistic及文本分析的华北地下水漏斗区农户种植马铃薯意愿研究

[目的]对华北地下水漏斗区-河北地区的农户种植马铃薯的意愿及其影响因素,以及农户生产种植中遇到的问题进行定量与定性分析。[方法]基于149家马铃薯种植户的问卷调查,运用Logistic与文本分析方法进行研究。[结果]经定量分析表明,农业人口占家庭人口的比例、单位面积投入、土地使用情况、资金使用情况、马铃薯种植年限、单位面积产量以及销售渠道等这7个因素对农户种植马铃薯的意愿产生显著性影响;经文本分析发现,农户急切需要得到政府的帮助,特别是生产种植技术、补贴政策、机械化程度以及销售渠道等方面的援助。[结论]农业人口占家庭人口的比例越高,单位面积投入越高,土地使用以及资金使用越高,则农户种植马铃薯的意愿就越低;马铃薯种植年限越高,单位面积产量越高以及销售畅通,农户种植马铃薯的意愿就越高;农户的基本情况如农民的年龄与文化程度、家庭收入特征、用水情况、培训以及补贴状况等因素对马铃薯种植意愿的影响并不明显。     

UNDERWRITING ASSISTANCE TO THE AUSTRALIAN WHEAT INDUSTRY — AN APPLICATION OF OPTION PRICING THEORY

For the ten crop seasons 1979-80 to 1988-89, returns to producers in the Australian wheat industry were underwritten by a government-guaranteed price floor. Similar schemes operate in other rural industries (dairy, apples and pears, dried fruits). Although the underwriting provisions have only been triggered once (in the 1986-87 season), the provision of this scheme has acted to reduce the risk normally associated with returns to producers of wheat in all years of its operation. This reduction in risk has been granted free-of-charge by the Commonwealth Government. The guaranteed price can be viewed as a put option taken out by the Government on behalf of growers — it gives growers the option to sell to the Australian Wheat Board at this floor price. The aim of this paper is to apply to this underwriting arrangement the Black-Scholes formula for valuing options, in order to estimate the cost that growers would otherwise have had to pay to obtain cover (through put options) equivalent to the guaranteed price. We also estimate the magnitude of this form of assistance to the industry, which (until now) has not been taken into account unless the returns to growers fell below the guaranteed price.     

Soil-specific agro-ecological strategies for sustainable land use – A case study by using MicroLEIS DSS in Sevilla Province (Spain)

To reverse the negative environmental impacts of agriculture, a land evaluation decision support system (DSS) known as MicroLEIS-DSS was used to design the most sustainable land use and management practices for selected Mediterranean benchmark sites in Sevilla Province, Southern Spain. This DSS is based on the multifunctional evaluation of soil quality, using input data collected in standard soil surveys, and with particular reference to the peculiarities of the Mediterranean region. Specific agro-ecological strategies to prevent soil degradation in the benchmark sites were designed within two major topics: (i) strategies related to land use planning at a regional level: segregation of agricultural lands, restoration of marginal areas, diversification of crop rotation, and identification of vulnerability areas; and (ii) those related to land management planning at a farm level: organic matter restoration, formulation of tillage practices and workability timing, optimum machinery use, and input rationalization. The predicted results of applying the 12 agro-ecological land evaluation model constituents of MicroLEIS DSS are presented and discussed for each application site. The main conclusion of this paper is that using soil type information in decision-making is at the heart for sustainable use and management of agricultural land. This agro-ecological approach can be especially useful when formulating soil-specific agricultural practices to reverse environmental degradation, based on the spatial variability of soils and related resources.     

基于倾向得分匹配法分析冬小麦粮草兼用对农户农业收入的影响

[目的]冬小麦粮草兼用在保证籽粒稳产,缓解家畜饲草短缺方面具有重要的作用,但是否具有较好的经济效益仍然具有争论,缺乏准确数据支撑。[方法]文章基于甘肃省庆阳市323个农户的调查数据,利用倾向得分匹配(PSM)方法,研究了冬小麦粮草兼用对农户农业收入的影响,以期能为冬小麦粮草兼用的农业收入效应提供实证支撑。[结果](1)冬小麦粮草兼用的确存在明显的农业收入效应。(2)倾向得分匹配法在纠正样本异质性偏差后,估计出冬小麦粮草兼用对农户农业收入的效应为12.8%。而使用传统的OLS参数估计方法实际上把冬小麦粮草兼用对农户农业收入的影响低估了约6.4%。这一结论这为相关部门推广冬小麦粮草兼用技术提供了有力的佐证。(3)冬小麦种植面积,冬小麦产量,养殖数量和玉米种植面积对农户农业收入有显著的正向影响。[结论]基于此,从加快农村土地的流转,扩大农户家庭土地经营规模,引导农户标准化、规模化养殖,重视冬小麦粮草兼用生产模式在陇东黄土高原的推广及应用等方面提出增加当地农户农业收入的政策建议。     

Land rents as a criterion for regionalization—The case of wheat growing in Croatia

The paper explores and tests one of the contemporary principles of economic regionalization of agriculture by using differential land rents in wheat production as a model. The analysis is based upon the assumption that differential rents could serve as a valid principle for regional planning, particularly differential rent I. On the basis of the food self-sufficiency principle declared by the Rome Declaration on World Food Security, the model assesses the economic justification of the Croatian wheat incentives system in relation to wheat production potentials in the counties, starting from those with high potential (the most favourable agroecological conditions for wheat production) towards the counties with low potential, to the level of self-sufficiency as a long-term Croatian strategic vision.The model shows that Croatia can meet its requirements for industrial wheat processing at the level of cumulative farmland areas of three counties, while total consumption can be covered by production of eight counties. This model compromises the fundamental principle of regional economics of wheat production, because up to 2003 incentives were given for 78,000 ha more than what was economically justified for wheat production intended for industrial processing, i.e. for 19,000 ha for total wheat demand. But, wheat production is practised all over Croatia—in all agricultural regions because of tradition on the one side and crop rotation requirements on the other side. This conclusion points to an uneconomic allocation of budget funds for wheat incentives to the counties, whose output results do not justify the incentives. The current subsidy model stimulates production by applying the criterion of a minimum three-hectare area required for wheat incentives. Consequently, a part of wheat production is excluded from the incentive system in the counties with high potential farmland, i.e. in the counties collecting a differential land rent for wheat production, which is uneconomical in terms of macroeconomics.Even though the model featured in this paper exemplifies wheat production in this particular situation, it can be easily used to evaluate the efficiency of incentives for all the crops included in the incentive system, while applying the standards of economics and agricultural regionalization. It can also be used to determine subsequent, more economical distribution of production incentives by channelling uneconomically allocated budget funds into implementation of other agricultural policies and measures.     

补贴政策对农户油茶经营供给时间影响实证分析

基于福建省5个县市的216户油茶种植户的微观调查数据,采用截取回归模型定量分析油茶补贴政策对农户油茶经营供给时间的影响。研究结果表明:油茶补贴收入对户主油茶经营供给时间具有高度显著的正向影响,油茶补贴政策很大程度上调动了农户经营油茶产业的积极性;此外,家庭平均年收入、户主从事非农劳动时间、加入油茶专业经济合作组织、户主时间贴现率对农户油茶经营供给时间具有显著的负向影响;具有社会资本、户主懂得油茶经营管理技术则具有显著的正向影响。因此,提出加大不同形式补贴的力度、加大经营管理技术培训的力度、鼓励发展油茶专业合作社、加大技术研发力度的建议。     

枸杞种植户参与紧密纵向协作的意愿及影响因素分析

运用二元Logistic回归模型分析了枸杞种植户参与假定的纵向协作形式的意愿及相关影响因素。研究表明:枸杞收入占家庭总收入比例较高和生产规模大的枸杞种植户倾向于参加紧密纵向协作形式,枸杞种植户乐意参与紧密的纵向协作,与紧密纵向协作链接市场及技术、资金支持等方面的优势也是分不开的。     

基于使用权的农村土地增值收益分配改革思路

[目的]以公私兼顾、公平与效率兼顾的土地增值收益分配为目标,提出基于使用权的农村土地增值收益分配改革思路。[方法]通过理论联系实际,首先分析农村土地增值收益分配的逻辑基础,包括:公平的逻辑基础——土地增值收益来源,以及效率的逻辑基础——明晰的产权制度;然后以现有土地产权结构和实践经验为基础,完成新型农村土地增值收益分配改革思路的提炼。[结果]在现有产权制度框架下,提炼了一个基于使用权的农村土地增值收益分配改革思路与模式框架,并借鉴现阶段各地区的改革实践经验,探讨了未来可实现的具体模式与改革方向,最后提出了基于使用权的农村土地增值收益分配的制度保障。[结论]基于使用权的农村土地增值收益分配模式更好地发挥了市场在土地资源配置中的基础性作用,规避了现有土地增值收益分配模式的诸多弊端,较好地实现了公平与效率兼顾的农村土地增值收益分配目标。     

Land expansion and growth in low‐ and middle‐income countries*

Over past decades, low and middle‐income countries have experienced considerable expansion of agricultural land, yet this effect on growth has not been examined The following paper shows that the Solow‐Swan growth model can be extended to the case whereby arable land is expanding, as originally suggested by Solow (1956). This extension indicates that land expansion boosts growth, and this effect increases with the relative share of land in income. An empirical analysis over 1990–2018 for 138 low and middle‐income countries supports this finding. The growth impact of land expansion over 1990–2018 varied significantly across the sample of countries depending on how much income was derived from land. This result explains why countries dependent on agriculture have engaged in extensive land expansion: it boosts overall growth. However, these growth benefits must be weighed against the considerable environmental costs of converting forests and other natural habitat to more agricultural land, such as increased carbon emissions, loss of ecosystem services and biodiversity, risk of disease, and impacts on local livelihoods.     

互联网使用对专业苹果种植户农地转入的影响研究 ——基于信息搜寻、社会资本和信贷获得中介效应视角

研究目的：从信息技术使用视角探究互联网使用对专业苹果种植户农地转入的影响及其机制,进而探索互联网能否成为激活农地流转市场的重要媒介。研究方法：内生转换Probit模型和中介效应模型。研究结果：（1）互联网使用对专业苹果种植户农地转入具有显著正向影响。基于反事实假设,使用互联网的专业苹果种植户若未使用互联网,其农地转入概率下降17.6%。（2）互联网使用主要通过提高信息搜寻能力、增加社会资本、提升信贷获得水平三条路径影响专业苹果种植户农地转入。（3）互联网使用对低收入组和自有地面积为小规模的专业苹果种植户的农地转入作用更大。研究结论：要重视以互联网为代表的信息技术对农地流转的促进作用,不断提升农村地区的互联网覆盖率,加快农地流转市场化进程。