Agricultural technology and land use futures: The UK case

This paper explores how agricultural technology has interacted with recent land use in the UK and how it might do so in the next 50 years. From 1960 to 1985, farmers successfully used technology to increase the output of crop and animal products per unit of land and particularly of labour. This reduced the number of people employed in agriculture, and promoted larger and more specialised farm enterprises. Between 1985 and 2006, food prices were relatively low, and although labour productivity continued to increase, land productivity remained relatively static. However during this period, farmers started to address the effects of agriculture on reduced water quality and habitat loss.For established agricultural products, technological innovation tends to have an incremental effect, working through genetic improvement, the removal of abiotic and biotic stress (e.g. crop nutrition and protection, irrigation and drainage, and animal nutrition, health and housing) and the substitution of labour. Whereas the first two processes tend to be scale-neutral, the substitution of labour is usually easiest to achieve on larger farms. Other key areas for technological innovation include addressing air, soil and water quality, biodiversity, waste reduction, and information management. Over the next 50 years, large step-changes in land use arising from agricultural technology are predicted to arise from the development of new markets for agricultural products. A strong bioenergy sector will strengthen the links between crop commodity and energy prices and will have a major effect on future land use. Climate change and the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions will alter the relative profitability of crop and animal production systems. Lastly, increased public awareness of the links between food, health and the environment could substantially shift the demand for specific agricultural products.Continual improvements in agricultural technology are pivotal to providing society with the flexibility to balance the challenges of improving human well-being with the management of the planet's ecosystem. Increased technological innovation increases the probability that agricultural land can be used for other purposes, but the exact relationship is dependent on trade and environmental policies. The large external effects of agriculture mean that decisions regarding the adoption of future technologies should be taken by farmers working with other stakeholders.     

发展水产品期货市场的几点思考

目前我国还尚未建立水产品期货市场,水产企业及渔民缺乏从事期货交易的环境和经营机制。我国水产品市场具有建立期货市场的内在需求,同时也具备开展期货市场交易的条件。因此,为促进水产市场的稳定发展,健全水产市场体系,完善水产品价格机制,我国有必要培育和发展水产期货市场。本文还提出了完善水产品现货市场、培育期货市场套期保值交易主体、建立健全期货市场监督管理机制等进一步促进水产品期货市场发展的措施建议。     

利用农产品期货市场破解订单农业发展难题

我国的订单农业一直难以得到有效的发展,其中一个很直接的原因是由于履约率低,而导致履约率低的原因又主要是订单农业中的价格风险问题,而利用农产品期货市场可以为订单农业的经营主体提供一个风险规避机制和有效的价格信息。而要利用农产品期货市场发展订单农业就必须对我国目前的农产品期货市场加以完善。     

The case for property investment and the implications of a unitized property market

Abstract

It is well known that direct property investment has often provided a more attractive risk/return profile than gilts and yet it enjoys a comparatively small role in institutional portfolios. This paper begins by updating and confirming that position. It then considers why this should be the case and poses the question of whether the development of a unitized property market might alter institutions’ perceptions of property as an investment in such a way as to increase its portfolio importance.

Section 2 discusses the weighting attached to property in recent years and section 3 discusses the conventional methods of risk/return analysis which present property in a favourable light. The paper then asks why the weighting should be so low and begins (section 4) by looking at arguments that conventional methods of risk/return analysis are misleading when applied to property, leading to an overstatement of return and an underestimate of risk. If institutions are aware of these defects they may adjust their perceptions of risk/return appropriately. We are not, however, persuaded that this is the whole of the explanation. In section 5 we consider other disadvantages or costs of direct property investment which go unrecorded by conventional measures of risk but which might be important to institutions. We confirm there are peculiarities attaching to direct property investment but that these cannot wholly explain the high return that institutions seem to need to induce them to hold only a small proportion of their portfolio in property. We are left, therefore, with the conclusion that institutions’ perceptions of the merits of property investment are a significant factor. Thus, in section 6, we try to identify ways in which an active market in unitized property might encourage institutions to hold larger property portfolios in future.     

Food subsidies and market interdependence: the case of the Moroccan soft wheat subsidy

Among the several propositions advanced to explain the rising cost of subsidizing soft wheat production and consumption in Morocco are the indirect effects emanating from related markets, namely the hard wheat and barley markets. A three-sector supply-demand model, described in this paper, was used to estimate the direct and indirect (induced) effects on government cost of changes in the soft wheat subsidy. The results show that virtually all the indirect effects come from the soft wheat market itself. The indirect effects emanating from the related markets are negligible.     

Determinants of efficiency of vegetable production in smallholder farms: The case of Ethiopia

Improving production efficiency remains as a plausible means of increasing productivity when resource reallocation, and the creation and adoption of new technologies are limited. Technical, allocative and economic efficiencies are derived from a sample of smallholder vegetable farmers in Ethiopia using parametric and non-parametric methods. The results reveal that the two methods yield similar estimates and the existence of substantial inefficiencies in production as well as efficiency differentials among farmers. The analysis of the determinants of efficiency of vegetable production using regression models show that low asset ownership, illiteracy, large family size, inadequate extension contacts, small farm size, age, low off/non-farm income and high consumer spending are the major socio-economic factors causing inefficiency of vegetable production in the study areas. A comparison of the market-driven (vegetables) with the whole-farm (crops and livestock) production efficiency indicates that lower economic efficiency scores for the former might be related to the limited access to capital markets, high consumer spending, and large family size.     

Impact of land fragmentation and resource ownership on productivity and efficiency: The case of rice producers in Bangladesh

The paper analyzes the impact of land fragmentation and ownership of resources on productivity and technical efficiency in rice production in Bangladesh using farm level survey data. Results reveal that land fragmentation has a significant detrimental effect on productivity and efficiency as expected. The elasticity estimates of land fragmentation reveal that a 1% increase in land fragmentation reduces rice output by 0.05% and efficiency by 0.03%. On the other hand, ownership of key resources (land, family labour, and draft animals) significantly increases efficiency. The mean elasticity estimates reveal that a 1% increase in family labour and owned draft animal improve technical efficiency by 0.04% and 0.03%, respectively. Also, a 1% increase in the adoption of modern technology improves efficiency by 0.04%. The mean technical efficiency in rice production is estimated at 0.91 indicating little scope to improve rice production per se using existing varieties. Policy implications include addressing structural causes of land fragmentation (e.g., law of inheritance and political economy of agrarian structure), building of physical capital (e.g., land and livestock resources), improvements in extension services and adoption of modern rice technology.     

Dynamics and resource use efficiency of agricultural land sales and rental market in India

In a populous developing country such as India, developmental interventions are often woven around land, as this is the most critical resource in the livelihood support system of rural communities. In such a socio-economic environment, land has multiple uses. It is the most important source of income, a symbol of social status and prestige, and has very high collateral value for resource poor farm families. In these countries, the migration of rural workers to urban centers in search of employment, coupled with universal individual inheritance characteristics of land ownership, perpetuates the fragmentation of land holdings. In the majority of such cases, the point has been reached where land has become uneconomic and non-viable for cultivation. For farmers left with uneconomic land holdings there are only three options available; sell the land, rent it out, or lease land from others. In such scenarios land lease and land market policies assumes critical importance.     

Commentary: The productivity of variability: an agroecological hypothesis

Most agronomic research seeks to limit the variability of productivity, offering universal ‘recipe knowledge’ that attempts to overwhelm contextual differences. Based on participatory research with a group of eight graziers in Wisconsin, we present the counter hypothesis that the productivity of variability is a key principle of agroecology. Contextual variability across space and time presents farmers with productive opportunities. Appreciating these contextual possibilities offers a universal principle that is not also a recipe.