PREDICTING FINANCIAL DISTRESS IN THE AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL SERVICE INDUSTRY

This paper looks at the ability of a relatively new technique, a non-linear extension of the Granger thick model concept, hybrid ANN's, to predict failure of financial service firms in Australia. These models are compared with traditional statistical techniques and conventional ANN models. The results suggest that hybrid neural networks outperform all other models in predicting failure for up to two years prior to the event. This suggests that for researchers, policymakers and others interested in early warning systems, hybrid network may be a useful tool for predicting firm failure.     

THE SYSTEMATIC RISK OF DEBT: AUSTRALIAN EVIDENCE*

This paper examines systematic risk (betas) of Australian government debt securities for the period 1979–2004 and makes three contributions to academic research and practical debate. First, the empirical work provides direct evidence on the systematic risk of government debt, and provides a benchmark for estimating the systematic risk of corporate debt which is relevant for cost of capital estimation and for optimal portfolio selection by asset managers such as superannuation funds. Second, analysis of reasons for non‐zero (and time varying) betas for fixed income securities aids understanding of the primary sources of systematic risk. Third, the results cast light on the appropriate choice of maturity of risk free interest rate for use in the Capital Asset Pricing Model and have implications for the current applicability of historical estimates of the market risk premium. Debt betas are found to be, on average, significantly positive and (as expected) closely related, cross sectionally, to duration. They are, however, subject to significant time series variation, and over the past few years the pre‐existing positive correlation between bond and stock returns appears to have vanished.     

FINANCIAL RISK AND UNEMPLOYMENT

There is a strong correlation between corporate interest rates, their spreads relative to Treasuries, and the unemployment rate. We model how corporate interest rates affect equilibrium unemployment and vacancies, in a Diamond–Mortesen–Pissarides search and matching model. Our simple model permits the exploration of U.S. business cycle statistics through the lens of financial shocks. We calibrate the model using U.S. data without targeting business cycle statistics. Volatility in the corporate interest rate can explain a quantitatively meaningful portion of the labor market. Data on corporate firms support the hypothesis that firms facing more volatile financial conditions have more volatile employment.     

混业经营与金融体系稳定性:基于银行危机的全球实证分析

银行混业经营不仅关系到自身效率的提高,更关系到银行体系乃至整个金融体系的稳定性。对全球范围内61个国家的跨国数据进行的实证分析表明,一个国家对银行混业经营的限制越少,该国的金融体系越趋于稳定,发生银行危机的概率也越小。不仅如此,在宏观经济越不稳定的国家,其一般性银行危机演变为系统性银行危机的概率也越大。     

数字金融能力与相对贫困*

本文定义了“数字金融能力”并对其进行了理论分析,检验了数字金融能力减少相对贫困的效应和作用渠道。采用中国家庭金融调查数据进行检验的结果表明,在处理内生性问题的前提下,数字能力和金融能力均显著地减少相对贫困发生概率。交互效应显示,在相对贫困样本分布越多的能力水平上,数字能力和金融能力减贫的概率越大。这种交互特征将有助于缩小贫富差距。在数字金融能力减少相对贫困发生概率的机制方面,提升收入、促进财富积累、缓解流动性约束、影响购物渠道四个中介渠道的贡献比例差异值得特别关注。致力于乡村振兴、促进共同富裕的政策应重视提升相对贫困群体不同层次的数字金融能力。     

金融发展与中国跨省消费风险分担

本文利用中国1978—2008年间的省级数据,考察金融发展对消费风险分担程度的影响,结果发现风险分担程度随时间显著变化。在1978-1992年时间段上,金融深化提高了消费的风险分担程度,而信贷市场发展对消费的风险分担程度的影响并不明显。在1993-2002年时间段上,信贷市场发展提高了消费的风险分担程度,而金融深化降低了消费的风险分担程度。在2003-2008年时间段上,金融深化对消费的风险分担程度的影响并不明显,只有微弱的证据表明,信贷市场发展在该阶段提高了各省人均居民消费的风险分担程度。而证券市场发展对消费的风险分担程度的影响一直不明显。     

TREASURY NOTE AND BANK BILL RATES, THE RISK PREMIUM AND AUSTRALIAN MONETARY POLICY*

This paper examines a link in the Australian monetary transmission mechanism based on the risk structure of certain interest rates. Monthly data on the bank-accepted bill and Treasury note rates reveal a significant reduction in both the mean and variance of the risk premium linking the two rates towards the end of 1989. The two interest rates cointegrate in each of the periods January 1984 to September 1989 and October 1989 to December 1995, though less significantly so in the earlier period, and formal tests indicate that the risk premium was stationary for each of the sub-periods. Well defined error-correction mechanisms suggest that the burden of adjustment to shocks to the money market was shared by the two interest rates. A stationary risk premium, combined with evidence that the Treasury note rate Granger-caused the bank bill rate in both sub-periods, indicates that the Reserve Bank has been able to influence the bill rate by targeting the note rate.     

PRIVATIZATION AND PERFORMANCE: THE CASE OF FOUR AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

ABSTRACT: This paper investigates the performance after privatization of institutions in Australian banking and insurance. Privatization was anticipated to improve firm performance in Australia and elsewhere, yet findings are mixed. A comparative institutional approach is taken to analyzing firm performance in the longer term which allows for further structural change. A CAMEL analysis of performance before and after privatization events is undertaken for four privatized institutions, two each from banking and insurance sectors. These are matched with private peer institutions. Privatized institutions are found to perform quite similarly to private peer institutions both before and after privatization.     

FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE SOURCES OF GROWTH AND CONVERGENCE*

We extend the deterministic, nonparametric production frontier framework by incorporating financial development. Our analysis convincingly shows that (1) failure to account for financial development overstates the role of physical capital accumulation in labor productivity growth, (2) most of this overstated contribution stems from the efficiency‐enhancing role of well‐functioning financial institutions, (3) international polarization is solely driven by efficiency changes, and (4) increased distributional dispersion of productivity is primarily driven by technological change. Model’s extensions to account for the growth effect of changes in the institutional environment only add to the argument about the overstated role of physical capital.