基于SWOT-AHP的长海县经济发展战略选择研究

长海县是我国东北地区唯一的海岛边境县,是辽宁沿海经济带的主要组成部分。本文采用SWOT定性分析方法对长海县经济发展的内外部因素进行综合分析,并借助AHP定量分析方法构建长海县经济发展战略层次结构模型,并通过计算长海县经济发展战略四边形,最后确定长海县经济发展应优先采取WO战略,即两建强县战略、生态立县战略、开放活县战略、创新兴县战略、基础设施先行战略。     

森林经营者风险态度及其度量

风险态度影响个体对风险事件的认识及其对行动方案的选择,不同特性的个体,其风险态度应存在差异。在福建省建阳、建瓯、莆田、连城、上杭、武平、永安等地进行有关森林经营者风险态度问卷调查的基础上,分别利用"标准赌博"衡量法、调查问卷法和经济学试验这三种度量方法,对福建省三类森林经营者的风险态度分别进行度量的结果表明:除了"标准赌博"衡量法无法区分三类森林经营主体风险态度差异性外,调查问卷法和经济学试验均表明各个森林经营者风险态度存在着差异性。森林培育企业和森林培育专业户的风险态度属于风险厌恶,但企业的厌恶程度大于专业户,而兼业农户的风险态度则属于风险偏好。     

实施粮食安全国际化战略的机遇，挑战及原则

中国人口基数大、耕地面积少、人均资源有限的现状,加之全球气候变化、世界人口增长、国际贸易的复杂态势等相关因素使得粮食安全问题日益凸显。在国际国内的多元化环境当中．如何辨识机遇与挑战．并在此基础上提出实施粮食安全国际化战略的原则,具有重要意义。     

Risk, Wealth, and Sectoral Choice in Rural Credit Markets

We model the role of the informal credit sector in developing countries. The informational advantage of informal lenders is portrayed as the ability to monitor borrowers. Monitoring reduces the incentive problem and allows for contracts with lower collateral. This enables informal lenders to serve both individuals who cannot post the collateral required by the formal sector and those who are able but do not want to post collateral. The model is consistent with the conventional view of the informal sector as recipient of spillover demand from the formal sector. It also shows that the informal sector may provide partial insurance as the lower collateral requirement implies greater consumption smoothing for borrowers.     

Farming System Analysis of an Alternative Production System for Peasant Farming in Morogoro,Tanzania

This paper presents an examination and evaluation of traditional and alternative production systems in Morogoro District, Tanzania. The research employed the Farming Systems Research (FSR) framework to identify an alternative production system. The traditional and alternative systems were field tested and evaluated. Cet article examine et évalue deux systèmes agricoles de production, ?un traditionnel, ?autre alternatif, dans la région de Morogoro en Tanzanie. Ce dernier systéme a été identifié en utilisant la méthodologie de recherche appelée “Farming Systems Research”. Une évaluation économique et sur le terrain de ces deux systèmes a été entreprise.     

农产品契约交易中价格风险的转移与分担

本研究认为,交易双方的机会主义行为会使农产品契约交易中的价格风险在交易双方间转移,一方获得风险收益,另一方承受风险损失,风险分担的不公平导致企业与农户之间的利益矛盾。合约中价格条款的合理设计有助于实现风险共担,并可对风险转移现象加以抑制。     

农户农业风险管理策略分析框架及策略应用

本文在构建农户农业风险管理策略矩阵的基础上,通过对浙江、山西和甘肃三个省份共987户农户的实地调查,研究发现目前我国农户主要采用非正规机制来规避农业风险。农户缺乏有效的农业风险管理措施,农业生产经营极具脆弱性。面对农业风险,大部分农户在灾害发生之前只能“听天由命”,灾害发生之后只能自担农业风险,缺乏有效的风险化解机制。     

Screening,Competition and the Choice of the Cooperative as an Organisational Form

Cooperatives are distinguished from investor-owned firms by different decision-making processes. A model is developed in which more cumbersome decision making by cooperatives may be compensated for by improved decision making. Conditions are derived under which cooperatives become efficient organisational forms. It is also shown that circumstances exist in which investor-owned firms and cooperatives can coexist in equilibrium. Finally, circumstances are identified in which competition results in a prisoners dilemma which comprises investor-owned firms only. Favourable public policy treatment of cooperatives may prevent this equilibrium outcome from occurring.     

投资项目财务评价参数测度方法及其应用--以种植业行业为例

本文运用资本资产定价模型和加权平均资本成本模型来测度投资项目财务基准收益率，其他财务评价参数的测度则是采用行业历史数据统计分析法，最后对测度结果进行分析并运用经验判断方法给出行业财务评价参数的建议值。     

农用地分等中ARCVIEW的技术

本文从实际出发，分析了ARCVIEW在地图编绘、图层提取、空间分析等方面的作用，揭示ARCVIEW的特点，希望ARCVIEW在土地分等中发挥更为重要的作用。     

Spatial Yield Risk Across Region, Crop and Aggregation Method

A researcher interested in crop yield risk analysis often has to contend with a lack of field- or farm-level data. While spatially aggregated yield data are often readily available from various agencies, aggregation distortions for farm-level analysis may exist. This paper addresses how much aggregation distortion might be expected and whether findings are robust across wheat, canola and flax grown in two central Canadian production regions, differing mainly by rainfall, frost-free growing days and soil type. Using Manitoba Crop Insurance Corporation data from 1980 to 1990, this research, regardless of crop or region analyzed, indicates that (i) spatial patterns in risk are absent; (ii) use of aggregate data overwhelmingly under-estimates field-level yield risk; and (iii) use of a relative risk measure compared to an absolute risk measure leads to slightly less aggregation distortion. Analysts interested in conducting farm-level analysis using aggregate data are offered a range of adjustment factors to adjust for potential bias.     

森林资源资产化经营风险与防范策略分析

从风险与风险管理的角度出发,将风险理论引入森林资源资产化经营中,提出森林资源资产化经营风险的定义,在分析其主要风险类型的基础上,提出保险、灾害救济、建立风险基金和最低价格保护制度、补贴信贷、加强信息服务、加强基础研究与深化体制改革等防范与应对森林资源资产化经营风险的策略,以促进中国的森林资源资产化管理进程。     

贫困县农户选择从业类型的趋势预测分析——基于马尔可夫链模型的应用

20世纪80年代以来我国农户的生产经营类型发生了巨大变化,由单一的纯农业向多种经营类型转变。农户从业类型的改变趋势必将对我国农业发展和农村劳动力就业格局产生重要影响。贫困县农户的从业类型将呈怎样的发展趋势?其趋势效应如何?本文以国家重点扶持的贫困县湖南省新化县为例,运用马尔可夫链模型,对贫困县农户选择从业类型的趋势进行了定量预测,并预测结果进行了效应分析,进而提出相关政策建议,以期有利于贫困县农户的脱贫致富。     

环境、农事与耕牛——近代江南地区耕牛的饲育与役用

本文从生态适应性的角度探讨环境、耕牛、人之间的关系。由于受环境的限制,近代江南地区的耕牛数量严重不足。基于此,围绕着耕牛的饲育与役用问题产生了一系列的社会关系与社会过程,受农事节律的影响,这种社会关系与过程又表现出很强的季节性特点：春天是备耕的时节,因而也是耕牛交易的高涨时期,迫于需要,许多农家只好以高利贷的形式赊购耕牛;农忙时分,为保证农业生产的顺利进行,贫穷之家则通过租借等方式以获取牛力投入;农闲时分,为节省饲料等费用,许多农家便把耕牛卖掉。而在这一过程中。小农户表现得尤为明显。     

敏感性—概率交叉分析法在农业上市公司投资风险分析中的应用

本文针对农业上市公司投资风险的特点,在比较几种传统风险分析方法的基础上,引入敏感性-概率交叉分析法,并以国内某农业上市公司的典型性投资为实例进行检验性分析.根据敏感性-概率交叉分析的结果,对各敏感性因素进行分类并做出相应的决策,为提高农业上市公司投资风险分析的可靠性和有效发现风险事件以及提高评估水平提供依据.     

国内外农业可持续发展评价理论、方法与应用

可持续发展是当前农业发展研究的主要领域。文章从农业可持续发展研究的框架模型、指标体系、以及权重确定等方面对农业可持续研究进行综述。通过对农业可持续发展研究指标选择的统计分析,对我国农业可持续发展研究进行评价,并指出我国农业可持续发展的研究方向。     

林业企业风险管理的对策和方法

论述了林业企业在生产经营过程中面临的主要风险,提出了切实可行的风险管理对策方法。     

福建林地可持续利用的制度方法选择

介绍明晰所有权、放活经营权、落实处置权、确保收益权等集体林权制度改革的成功做法;阐述选择福建林地可持续利用的制度环境必须有利于林地资源保护、林地资源质量提高、林地集约利用、理顺林地收益分配关系、保障制度效益最大化;指出福建林地可持续利用中承包期限与林权证有效期、林地利用与森林生态保护、林地流转价格、取消林业税费后的管理、限额采伐制度等五个应注意的问题;提出完善林地法律体系,规范政府管理行为,处理好放活经营权、落实处置权与森林资源保护的关系,落实林业经营权,推进使用权再次流转,建立长效管理制度,促进林地可持续利用等福建林地可持续利用应该完善和发展的方向。     

Comparing Open-Ended Choice Experiments and Experimental Auctions: An Application to Golden Rice

We use two experimental valuation methods to estimate consumer demand for genetically modified golden rice. The first is an open-ended choice experiment (OECE) where participants name the quantities of golden rice and conventional rice demanded at each of several price combinations, one of which will be randomly chosen as binding. This allows us to estimate market demand by aggregating demand across participants. This estimate of market demand also allows us to estimate own-price elasticity and consumer surplus for golden rice. Comparing willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates from the OECE with those from a uniform-price auction, we find that OECE WTP estimates exhibit less affiliation across rounds, and the effects of positive and negative information under the OECE are more consistent with prior expectations and existing studies. We also find that, while auction WTP estimates more than double across five rounds, OECE WTP estimates are stable across rounds and are always roughly equal to those from the final auction round.     

面对WT0中国农产品外贸优势及战略选择

一、引言 与中国经济高速增长相一致,中国农产品对外贸易在改革开放后获得了迅速发展。1980年,中国农产品进出口总值为105.9亿美元,1998年已达到262亿美元,增长1.5培,年均增长率为5.1％;其中进口由62.2亿美元增至118.8亿美元,增长0.91倍,年均增长率为3.6％;出口由43.7亿美元增至143.2亿美元,增长2.3倍,年均增长率为6.8％。……