国有林区生态生产总值GEP核算及生态贡献度研究

基于伊春市国有林区共计16个国有林业局在2017年度的年鉴统计数据及黑龙江省森林工业综合统计资料汇编中的相关数据,运用GEP生态生产总值的核算方法,研究了国有林区生态生产总值的核算方法以及生态贡献度问题。结果表明:由于国家采伐机制的限制,国有林区林业产品的生态价值难以转化为商业价值,但国有林区生态服务价值贡献度明显,生态文化服务的价值值得进一步开发。最后,提出应当转变核算思维、拓展核算思路;国有林区政府应当完善核算主体并健全核算体系;提高GEP的生态总值核算实务水平等建议。     

The importance of seasonal variability and tactical responses to risk on estimating the economic benefits of integrated weed management

Seasonal variability is an important source of risk faced by farmers and, regardless of an individual's attitude to risk, there are options to tactically adjust production strategies as the outcomes of risk become known. The objective of this article is to measure the economic benefits of alternative approaches to managing weeds, one of the most serious production problems in Australian cropping systems. A bioeconomic model that combines weed biology, crop growth and economics is developed to value the effects of seasonal variability and the role of tactical responses and sequential decision making in determining an optimal integrated weed management strategy. This shows that there are substantial differences in the measured long‐term benefits from deterministic and stochastic simulations. It is concluded that, for research evaluation of technologies that involve complex biological and dynamic systems, ignoring the impacts of seasonal variability, responses to risk and sequential decision making can lead to an incorrect estimate of the economic benefits of a technology. In this case study of optimal weed management strategies in Australia, the size of the error is high.     

Hedging Multiple Price Uncertainty in International Grain Trade

Commodity and freight futures contracts are analyzed for their effectiveness in reducing uncertainty for international traders. A theoretical model is developed for a trader exposed to several types of risk. OLS hedge ratio estimation is compared to the SUR and the multivariate GARCH methodologies. Explicit modeling of the time-variation in hedge ratios via the multivariate GARCH methodology, using all derivatives, and taking into account dependencies between prices, results in reductions in risk, even after accounting for transaction costs. Results confirm that while the commodity futures contracts are important for hedging risk, freight futures are a useful mechanism for reducing risk.     

Testing for Dynamic Misspecification of Input Demand Functions: An Application to Canadian Agriculture

Previous applications of the inter-temporal quadratic adjustment cost model in agriculture have failed to consider information gained from pre-testing in choosing an appropriate specification for dynamic demand of quasi-fixed inputs. A test strategy is outlined taking account of this information in order to consistently estimate adjustment cost and discount rate parameters. Canadian agricultural data are used in the empirical analysis. Test results suggest that the intertemporal quadratic adjustment cost model is inappropriate for modeling dynamic demand for land, labor and machinery.     

浅议绿色会计

传统的会计核算体系和国民经济核算体系 ,未考虑和核算资源及环境的价值 ,也未将环境污染和资源耗竭所造成的损失从国内生产总值和企业利润中扣除 ,已不适应今天的情况 ,此乃绿色会计产生的原因。绿色会计计算出来的是经过环境调整的国内生产总值和企业利润 ,是符合可持续发展战略和科学发展观要求的。文章从分析资源环境问题和传统会计体系的缺陷入手 ,阐述了绿色会计的任务和核算内容 ,并提出了在我国建立绿色会计的设想。     

Tactical responses to seasonal conditions in whole-farm planning in Western Australia

In dryland agricultural systems, efficient farm management requires a degree of flexibility according to variations in climate from year to year. Tactical adjustments to the mix of farm enterprises can capitalize on good growing conditions and minimise losses under poor growing conditions. In this paper, a discrete stochastic programming model of dryland wheat-sheep farms in Western Australia is used to identify optimal tactical adjustments to climate and to calculate the value of these tactical adjustments. The model, MUDAS, includes nine discrete season types with a wide range of options for tactical adjustments in each. In the standard model, optimal tactical responses increase expected net cash surplus by approximately 22% relative to a fixed or inflexible strategy. In most season types, changes to the long term farm strategy are made on less than 10% of the farm area, although in some seasons over 25% of the farm can require adjustments to the enterprise selected. The benefits of flexibility are not evenly distributed across different season types but occur predominantly in the best and worst seasons. The magnitude of benefits is affected differently by different commodity prices. Benefits of flexibility are due to capitalizing on knowledge about the greater volatility of profits from cropping than from livestock production. Deterministic models and even stochastic models which don't include activities for tactical adjustments miss this key feature of the system.     

The land footprint of the EU bioeconomy: Monitoring tools,gaps and needs

The bioeconomy is gaining growing attention as a perceived win-win strategy for environment and economy in the EU. However, the EU already has a disproportionately high global cropland footprint compared to the world average, and uses more cropland than domestically available to supply its demand for agricultural products. There is a risk that uncontrolled growth of the bioeconomy will increase land use pressures abroad. For that reason, a monitoring system is needed to account for the global land use of European consumption. The aim of this paper is to take a closer look at the tools needed to monitor global cropland footprints, as well as the targets needed to benchmark development. This paper reviews recent developments in land footprint accounting approaches and applies the method of global land use accounting to calculate the global cropland footprint of the EU-27 for the years between 2000 and 2011. It finds a slight decrease in per capita cropland footprints over the past decade (of around 1% annually, reaching 0.29 ha/cap in 2011) and advocates promoting a further decrease in per capita cropland requirements (of around 2% annually) to reach global land use targets for keeping consumption within the safe operating space of planetary boundaries by 2030. It argues that strategic land reduction targets may still go hand in hand with the growth of a smart, innovative and sustainable bioeconomy by reinforcing the need for policies that support greater efficiency across the life-cycle and reduce wasteful and excessive consumption practices. Recommendations for further improving land footprint accounting are given.     

Design of economic information. A pilot study of accounting information in decision-making processes

Accounting information is developed for an analytic decision-making process, whereas many farmers use an intuitive process. The aim is to determine the decisions and parts of the decision-making that farmers use for accounting information, and to what extent accounting information would be more useful if it was designed to fit the decision-making process used. A limited sample of milk-producing farmers in Uppsala County, Sweden, was studied. For detecting scale problems, the values of the financial statement were of primary importance and the design of the profit and loss statement was of secondary importance. For detecting efficiency problems, the values of the profit and loss statement were most important, the content of the commentary information was the second most important, and the design of the financial statement was the third most important. Farmers using an intuitive decision-making process perceived problem detection to be easier if the information was designed to fit the intuitive process. However, farmers using an analytic decision-making process did not perceive problem detection to be easier if the accounting information was designed to fit the analytic process. Also they valued the information designed for the intuitive process.     

试论开展矿产资源核算体系研究的重要意义

开展矿产资源核算体系研究具有重大意义:矿产资源核算体系的建立,支持着国民经济核算方法、资源核算的理论和方法、核算系统模型和综合资源政策及新发展模式等专题研究;通过矿产资源核算体系的建立合理地约束资源消耗的速度,可提高资源利用的国民经济效率;确定资源价值,进行资源核算,可从根本上解决资源利用效益问题;矿产资源核算是界定产权关系,加强矿产资源管理及开发管理是改革矿业体制的关键;资源核算为可持续发展战略的实施提供了一个崭新的视角和核算工具。     

耕地非农化风险及增值收益分配机制研究——以哈尔滨市为例

研究目的:探寻合理分配耕地非农化增值收益的方法,从耕地非农化风险角度构建增值收益分配机制。研究方法:联盟利益分配机制,模糊综合评价法。研究结果:在耕地非农化中,各权利主体所担风险从高到低依次为农民、中央政府、地方政府、村集体;假设各权利主体参与征地行为是一种投资行为,各权利主体耕地非农化增值收益分配比例为中央政府占26%,地方政府占22%,村集体占17%,农民占35%;运用"联盟利益分配机制"测算耕地非农化各权利主体之间的增值收益分配比例是可行的。研究结论:以缩小征地范围、尊重农民意愿为条件制定征地补偿标准不仅体现补偿公平原则,也符合通过市场机制对农民进行补偿的改革方向。     

浅析上市公司消耗性林木资产的会计信息披露

消耗性林木资产是林业经营主体的重要资产,消耗性林木资产的会计信息披露对于提高会计信息的质量以及促进资本市场的持续健康发展具有重要的意义。文章在阐述了会计信息披露相关理论的基础上,重点分析了2010年中国上市公司消耗性林木资产信息披露中存在的主要问题,即缺乏对经营风险的必要提示、有关郁闭度方面的信息披露不充分、成本结转方法披露过于随意、公允价值的披露主观性强等,并有针对性地提出了相应的完善建议,即应在完善消耗性林木资产表内信息披露的同时,强化会计报表附注和财务情况说明书的披露。     

论当代大地质产业战略

地质队伍实行属地化管理后,一个最重要的目标任务是加快推进企业化经营,加快融入地方经济发展。为此,本文提出大地质产业战略的构想和重点内容,并从宏观、中观、微观三方面论述了战略的实施;从五个方面阐明了关键性战术工作,分析了近期、中期、远期市场动态和方向。     

Landlords and farmers: implications of disparities in bargaining power for tenancy in agriculture

The equilibrium allocation of owner operated and rental land in the agricultural sector is examined given risk averse agents, risky returns and asset price risk. The model is extended to account for disparities in bargaining power among landlords and farmers. In the absence of disparities, the competitive equilibrium allocation satisfies the general conditions for optimal risk sharing with an adjustment factor similar to the optimal hedge ratio. Differences in bargaining power result in deviations from the optimal risk sharing conditions. Numerical simulations of tenancy structure are conducted for a developed agricultural economy exposed to various forms of risk. Estimates of parameter values representing the riskiness of returns and asset prices in this study are based on vector auto regressive techniques. The simulations show that a substantial reduction of the rental ratio is obtained in a situation where farmers are equally or more risk averse than landlords. Consequently, the results indicate that the importance of the tenancy institution as a risk sharing mechanism is severely mitigated in the presence of asset price risk, risky returns, relatively risk averse farmers and disparities in bargaining power.     

A choice modelling case study on climate change involving two-way interactions

Choice Modelling applications can be designed to estimate main effects only or multiple-way interactions between attributes. It has been reported that higher order effects generally account for less than 10% of the choice explanation. Nevertheless, the amount of applications testing for interactions among attributes in environmental valuation is very limited. This paper reports a Choice Modelling exercise valuing climate change impacts on plant cover, land erosion and fire risk in Spanish shrublands. Two out of three two-way interactions were found significant and to account for more than 20% of the choice model explanation. Their contribution to the log-likelihood value was comparable to the one of the main effects variables. Moreover, accounting for second order interactions significantly altered the estimates of the implicit prices of attributes compared to the main effects specifications.     

湖北省水利厅财会集中核算的利弊分析及建议

对实施财会集中核算制后的利弊和问题进行了分析，并提出了相关建议：明确会计责任主体，切实实行会计业务代理制；调整会计核算中心的运行模式；促进会计业务层次化和多样化，不断提高会计人员的业务水平。     

京津冀区域冀北地区“粮改饲”结构调整效益分析

［目的］政府出台的“粮改饲”结构调整、种养结合和农业供给侧结构性改革是针对种植业与养殖业供给侧结构问题提出的重大决策。［方法］文章在“粮改饲”策略实施的基础上，以养殖业为切入点，根据京津冀冀北张家口市万全区与塞北管理区的实地调研数据，实证分析“粮改饲”策略实施前后的效益，［结果］按照种植饲草饲料的规模计算，奶牛养殖主体实施“粮改饲”后比“粮改饲”前节省成本910元/667m2，按照奶牛消耗青贮玉米量计算，养殖企业可以节省成本1 820元/(头·年）； 而养殖规模较大经营主体的效益明显高于规模较小经营主体的效益，［结论］得出实施“粮改饲”降低了养殖业成本，提高了养殖业规模效益的结论，并提出对策建议：从农牧业供给侧入手，引导耕地流转，扩大种养业结合经营规模； 从农牧业产业各环节切入，延长产业链条，融合发展“产加销”； 依据区域资源特征，创新粮草轮作模式； 依据饲料饲草种植主体规模进行“粮改饲”补贴。     

RELATIONSHIPS AMONG FARMERS' GOALS AND FARM ADJUSTMENT STRATEGIES: SOME EMPIRICS OF A MULTIDIMENSIONAL APPROACH

A knowledge of farmers' goals provides an important basis for understanding farmers' preferences for, and choices among, various farm adjustment strategies. Such information is also valuable in estimating the acceptability to farmers of various government measures to assist rural adjustment. The goals of Queensland graziers, with and without a history of farm expansion, are compared. Different adjustment strategies are analysed in terms of the ways in which they satisfy different individual goals. A dimensional analysis of relationships among goals and adjustment strategies reveals that, for those willing to expand but without a history of expansion, income and social goals are at odds with each other. For these graziers, property expansion seemed to be the strategy most likely to meet both these goals. For graziers with a history of expansion, income goals were complementary with social goals.     

Incentive-Compatible Pollution Control Policies under Asymmetric Information on Both Risk Preferences and Technology

This article proposes a method to accommodate asymmetric information on farmers' risk preferences in designing voluntary environmental policies. By incorporating stochastic efficiency rules in a mechanism design problem, the government can find incentive-compatible policies by knowing only the general class of risk preferences among farmers. The model also accounts for hidden information on technology types and input use. The method is applied empirically to simulate a pollution control program in New York. Results suggest that participation incentives would be inadequate for many risk-averse producers if the government does not account for the diversity in risk preferences.     

The Need for Comprehensive Climate Change Mitigation Policies in European Agriculture

During the last decade the European Union has shown a firm determination to move to a low carbon economy. Since 2008 the agricultural sector has been part of this strategy and is included in the EU effort sharing decision. Introducing specific GHG mitigation obligations for agriculture could be one option to achieve an overall GHG emission reduction target. One argument for this strategy would be that the agricultural sector is the main contributor of non‐CO₂ greenhouse gases. Nevertheless, a comprehensive EU mitigation policy would most likely have to take into account the particularities of its diverse agricultural sector, reflected by different trends in historical GHG emission reductions, and a varied mitigation cost structure between farming systems. Consequently, using targeted but flexible policy instruments may more equitably distribute the mitigation efforts across Member States and reduce cost inefficiencies. The increased uptake of technological and management emission mitigation measures would be crucial to keep mitigation costs for EU farmers at a minimum. However, while unilateral action would initially signal the EU's commitment to serious GHG mitigation effort in the sector, ultimately a multilateral agreement is needed to minimise emission leakage and to reduce global GHG emissions effectively.     

基于GM(1,1)模型的造纸业上市公司财务研究——以冠豪高新为例

财务风险是企业调整发展战略、提升管理水平的重要参考指标之一。财务风险预测模型的建立能够预测企业在中短期内的财务风险,为企业敲响警钟。以造纸业上市公司冠豪高新为例,选取近五年财务杠杆系数为风险指标,建立GM(1,1)风险预测模型,结果显示该公司短期内财务风险呈下降趋势,调查发现这主要得益于产品成本的降低以及营销策略的改变。