基于SWOT-AHP的长海县经济发展战略选择研究

长海县是我国东北地区唯一的海岛边境县,是辽宁沿海经济带的主要组成部分。本文采用SWOT定性分析方法对长海县经济发展的内外部因素进行综合分析,并借助AHP定量分析方法构建长海县经济发展战略层次结构模型,并通过计算长海县经济发展战略四边形,最后确定长海县经济发展应优先采取WO战略,即两建强县战略、生态立县战略、开放活县战略、创新兴县战略、基础设施先行战略。     

森林经营者风险态度及其度量

风险态度影响个体对风险事件的认识及其对行动方案的选择,不同特性的个体,其风险态度应存在差异。在福建省建阳、建瓯、莆田、连城、上杭、武平、永安等地进行有关森林经营者风险态度问卷调查的基础上,分别利用"标准赌博"衡量法、调查问卷法和经济学试验这三种度量方法,对福建省三类森林经营者的风险态度分别进行度量的结果表明:除了"标准赌博"衡量法无法区分三类森林经营主体风险态度差异性外,调查问卷法和经济学试验均表明各个森林经营者风险态度存在着差异性。森林培育企业和森林培育专业户的风险态度属于风险厌恶,但企业的厌恶程度大于专业户,而兼业农户的风险态度则属于风险偏好。     

实施粮食安全国际化战略的机遇，挑战及原则

中国人口基数大、耕地面积少、人均资源有限的现状,加之全球气候变化、世界人口增长、国际贸易的复杂态势等相关因素使得粮食安全问题日益凸显。在国际国内的多元化环境当中．如何辨识机遇与挑战．并在此基础上提出实施粮食安全国际化战略的原则,具有重要意义。     

Risk, Wealth, and Sectoral Choice in Rural Credit Markets

We model the role of the informal credit sector in developing countries. The informational advantage of informal lenders is portrayed as the ability to monitor borrowers. Monitoring reduces the incentive problem and allows for contracts with lower collateral. This enables informal lenders to serve both individuals who cannot post the collateral required by the formal sector and those who are able but do not want to post collateral. The model is consistent with the conventional view of the informal sector as recipient of spillover demand from the formal sector. It also shows that the informal sector may provide partial insurance as the lower collateral requirement implies greater consumption smoothing for borrowers.     

Farming System Analysis of an Alternative Production System for Peasant Farming in Morogoro,Tanzania

This paper presents an examination and evaluation of traditional and alternative production systems in Morogoro District, Tanzania. The research employed the Farming Systems Research (FSR) framework to identify an alternative production system. The traditional and alternative systems were field tested and evaluated. Cet article examine et évalue deux systèmes agricoles de production, ?un traditionnel, ?autre alternatif, dans la région de Morogoro en Tanzanie. Ce dernier systéme a été identifié en utilisant la méthodologie de recherche appelée “Farming Systems Research”. Une évaluation économique et sur le terrain de ces deux systèmes a été entreprise.     

农产品契约交易中价格风险的转移与分担

本研究认为,交易双方的机会主义行为会使农产品契约交易中的价格风险在交易双方间转移,一方获得风险收益,另一方承受风险损失,风险分担的不公平导致企业与农户之间的利益矛盾。合约中价格条款的合理设计有助于实现风险共担,并可对风险转移现象加以抑制。     

Heterogeneous Risk Preferences,Discount Rates and Land Contract Choice in Ethiopia

This paper analyses the role of risk and rate of time preference in the choice of land contracts. The analysis builds on the risk‐sharing and imperfect market explanations of contract choice. Unique data from Ethiopia, which contain land contract information and experimental risk and rate of time preference measures on matched landlord–tenant partners, are employed in the empirical analysis. The results show that landlord and tenant time preferences are significant determinants of contract choice. For landlords (but not tenants), risk preference is also significant, indicating the importance of financial constraints and production risk in the determination of contract choice. The results are of particular relevance to land market policy in Ethiopia, where production is risk‐prone, financial markets are imperfect, and where there is a major need for the development of vibrant land rental markets.     

Values and Markets: an Analysis of Organic Farming Initiatives in Andalusia

This article sets out the overlapping political and cultural roots of an innovative farming co‐operative in Andalusia, one composed of both ex‐labourers and small farmers. One strand of values involves the realization of a food chain in which no capitalist enterprise can extract profit from their labours: this, together with various conceptions of personal and local autonomy, shapes much of their practice of organic farming. Nevertheless, their labour has to generate an acceptable livelihood through selling food in an environment dominated by large‐scale commercial agriculture in both the ‘conventional’ and ‘organic’ sectors. The article explains how they achieve this by building ties with consumers around a variety of shared values. This focus on the particularities of a radical food movement sheds light on many larger issues, both the nature of markets and competition in the dominant economy, and the debates about organic certification and ‘conventionalization’.     

农户农业风险管理策略分析框架及策略应用

本文在构建农户农业风险管理策略矩阵的基础上,通过对浙江、山西和甘肃三个省份共987户农户的实地调查,研究发现目前我国农户主要采用非正规机制来规避农业风险。农户缺乏有效的农业风险管理措施,农业生产经营极具脆弱性。面对农业风险,大部分农户在灾害发生之前只能“听天由命”,灾害发生之后只能自担农业风险,缺乏有效的风险化解机制。     

Screening,Competition and the Choice of the Cooperative as an Organisational Form

Cooperatives are distinguished from investor-owned firms by different decision-making processes. A model is developed in which more cumbersome decision making by cooperatives may be compensated for by improved decision making. Conditions are derived under which cooperatives become efficient organisational forms. It is also shown that circumstances exist in which investor-owned firms and cooperatives can coexist in equilibrium. Finally, circumstances are identified in which competition results in a prisoners dilemma which comprises investor-owned firms only. Favourable public policy treatment of cooperatives may prevent this equilibrium outcome from occurring.     

投资项目财务评价参数测度方法及其应用--以种植业行业为例

本文运用资本资产定价模型和加权平均资本成本模型来测度投资项目财务基准收益率，其他财务评价参数的测度则是采用行业历史数据统计分析法，最后对测度结果进行分析并运用经验判断方法给出行业财务评价参数的建议值。     

农用地分等中ARCVIEW的技术

本文从实际出发，分析了ARCVIEW在地图编绘、图层提取、空间分析等方面的作用，揭示ARCVIEW的特点，希望ARCVIEW在土地分等中发挥更为重要的作用。     

Estimating Technical Efficiency and Production Risk under Contract Farming: A Bayesian Estimation and Stochastic Dominance Methodology

We investigate production risk, technical efficiency and risk attitudes amongst contract and independent farmers. We use a Bayesian parametric approach and stochastic dominance quantile regression methods to compare technical efficiency and risk attitude of smallholders in Nepal. Using farm‐level data, we find that contract farmers appear to show lower inefficiency and lower production risk. Additionally, contract and independent farmers can increase output by reducing the scale of operation. Regardless of the commodity produced and farming arrangement (contract or independent production), we find that labour, land and other inputs are risk‐augmenting, while the role of capital is mixed. We find a second order stochastic dominance (SSD) for lentils, and first order stochastic dominance (FSD) for tomatoes, ginger and HYV paddy seed commodities. Finally, contract farmers are more risk averse than independent farmers, regardless of the commodity produced.     

The Food Crisis,Industrialized Farming and the Imperial Regime

This paper argues that the food crisis cannot solely be equated with abrupt food price increases or seen as merely market induced. The unprecedented price increases of the first half of 2008, and the extremely low prices that followed, are expressions of a far wider and far more persistent underlying crisis, which has been germinating for more than a decade. It is the complex outcome of several combined processes, including the industrialization of agriculture, the liberalization of food and agricultural markets and the rise of food empires. The interaction of these processes has created a global agrarian crisis that has provoked the multifaceted food crisis. Both these crises are being accelerated through their interactions with the wider economic and financial crisis.     

Spatial Yield Risk Across Region, Crop and Aggregation Method

A researcher interested in crop yield risk analysis often has to contend with a lack of field- or farm-level data. While spatially aggregated yield data are often readily available from various agencies, aggregation distortions for farm-level analysis may exist. This paper addresses how much aggregation distortion might be expected and whether findings are robust across wheat, canola and flax grown in two central Canadian production regions, differing mainly by rainfall, frost-free growing days and soil type. Using Manitoba Crop Insurance Corporation data from 1980 to 1990, this research, regardless of crop or region analyzed, indicates that (i) spatial patterns in risk are absent; (ii) use of aggregate data overwhelmingly under-estimates field-level yield risk; and (iii) use of a relative risk measure compared to an absolute risk measure leads to slightly less aggregation distortion. Analysts interested in conducting farm-level analysis using aggregate data are offered a range of adjustment factors to adjust for potential bias.     

Farming systems and Conservation Agriculture: Technology,structures and agency in Malawi

Conservation Agriculture (CA) is advocated as an agricultural innovation that will improve smallholder famer resilience to future climate change. Under the conditions presented by the El Niño event of 2015/16, the implementation of CA was examined in southern Malawi at household, district and national institutional levels. Agricultural system constraints experienced by farming households are identified, and in response the technologies, structures and agency associated with CA are evaluated. The most significant constraints were linked to household health, with associated labour and monetary impacts, in addition to the availability of external inputs of fertiliser and improved seed varieties. Our findings show that such constraints are not adequately addressed through current agricultural system support structures, with the institutions surrounding CA (in both Government extension services and NGO agricultural projects) focusing attention predominantly at field level practice, rather than on broader system constraints such as education and health support systems. Limited capacity within local institutions undermines long term efforts to implement new technologies such as CA. It is vitally important that the flexibility of farmers to adapt new technologies in a locally-appropriate manner is not closed down through national and institutional aims to build consensus around narrow technical definitions of a climate-smart technology such as CA. To enable farmers to fully utilise CA programmes, interventions must take a more holistic, cross-sectoral approach, understanding and adapting to address locally experienced constraints. Building capacity within households to adopt new agricultural practices is critical, and integrating healthcare support into agricultural policy is a vital step towards increasing smallholder resilience to future climate change.     

风险感知、风险态度对农村土地经营权流转的影响研究 ——以浙江省嘉兴市农村土地经营权流转为例

研究目的:探究风险感知、风险态度对农村土地经营权流转的影响作用,为推进农村土地流转制度创新实践提供理论和实证依据。研究方法:将风险感知理论与风险态度理论相结合,探讨两者对农村土地经营权流转的影响作用,提出研究假设,并通过浙江省嘉兴市农户的调查数据进行验证。研究结果:(1)风险感知对农村土地经营权流转产生显著负向影响;(2)风险态度对农村土地经营权流转产生显著负向影响;(3)风险感知和风险态度的交互作用对农村土地经营权流转产生显著负向影响,表明具有较小风险规避程度的农户,即使感知到农村土地经营权流转具有较大风险时,流转土地经营权的可能性也将增加。研究结论:农村土地制度创新实践中,关注风险感知因素和风险态度因素将有助于推进农村土地经营权流转。     

森林资源资产化经营风险与防范策略分析

从风险与风险管理的角度出发,将风险理论引入森林资源资产化经营中,提出森林资源资产化经营风险的定义,在分析其主要风险类型的基础上,提出保险、灾害救济、建立风险基金和最低价格保护制度、补贴信贷、加强信息服务、加强基础研究与深化体制改革等防范与应对森林资源资产化经营风险的策略,以促进中国的森林资源资产化管理进程。     

Changing Patterns in Family Farming: The Case of the Pampa Region, Argentina

In the past few decades, Argentine agriculture has been significantly reorganized. Changes include the marked growth of export production, the need for an increasing level of capital investment and technological incorporation into farms and the restructuring of public intervention. This paper examines the dynamics of farm exit and the adjustments made by capitalized family farmers in the Pampa region. We suggest transformations in family farms are the result of a substantial shift in their main characteristics which historically combined the use of family labour, a certain accumulation capacity and ownership status. In particular, we will discuss the different and changing patterns of farm operations and the adjustments made with respect to work and land tenure.     

贫困县农户选择从业类型的趋势预测分析——基于马尔可夫链模型的应用

20世纪80年代以来我国农户的生产经营类型发生了巨大变化,由单一的纯农业向多种经营类型转变。农户从业类型的改变趋势必将对我国农业发展和农村劳动力就业格局产生重要影响。贫困县农户的从业类型将呈怎样的发展趋势?其趋势效应如何?本文以国家重点扶持的贫困县湖南省新化县为例,运用马尔可夫链模型,对贫困县农户选择从业类型的趋势进行了定量预测,并预测结果进行了效应分析,进而提出相关政策建议,以期有利于贫困县农户的脱贫致富。