The Uncertainty of Economic Success When Economic Regimes Are Uncertain: A Study of Transition Periods

We construct a model of a reform economy in transition from central planning to free markets. The eventual success of the reform is uncertain. A numerical implementation of the model examines the implications of two alternative paths, instantaneous or gradual price reform. If the controlled-price sector has sharply decreasing returns to scale in production, then gradualism may lead to welfare higher than that of instantaneous reform. Given the inefficiencies in production in many transition economies, this may help to explain why countries that have used gradualism have sometimes fared better than those that have followed a path of rapid price liberalization. J. Comp. Econom., October 1994, 19(2), pp. 217-236. University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas 66045.     

On the Dynamic Consistency of Reform and Compensation Schemes

To make reform possible, politically strong losers have to be bought out. Whether the losers are fully compensated upfront or given running compensation depends on their political influence after reform. We build a simple but general model to study dynamic consistency of compensation and political support for reform. We find that positive but decreasing compensation is required in every period up to the last period the losers have political influence. In that period it increases dramatically. If there are limited resources available to compensate the losers upfront, increasing the cost of reversing the reform may reduce the political feasibility of reform.     

School finance reform: Assessing general equilibrium effects

In 1994 the state of Michigan implemented one of the most comprehensive school finance reforms undertaken to date in any of the states. Understanding the effects of the reform is thus of value in informing other potential reform initiatives. In addition, the reform and associated changes in the economic environment provide an opportunity to assess whether a simple general equilibrium model can be of value in framing the study of such reform initiatives. In this paper, we present and use such a model to derive predictions about the effects of the reform on housing prices and neighborhood demographic compositions. Broadly, our analysis implies that the effects of the reform and changes in the economic environment are likely to have been reflected primarily in housing prices and only modestly on neighborhood demographics. We find that evidence for the Detroit metropolitan area from the decade encompassing the reform is largely consistent with the predictions of the model.     

示范高职院校课程模式改革探讨

介绍了职业教育课程的几种典型模式,分析了各自存在的不足之处。明确发展思路,应加强和国外高职院校的交流与合作,积极探索高职院校课程模式改革的新思路、新方向,努力创建中国高职教育人才培养的新模式。在论述四川建院在课程模式改革过程中的探索和尝试的基础上,提出了对目前课程模式改革的一些思考。     

An econometric model of Kuwait's non-oil GDP

A model covering the production part of the non-oil GDP in Kuwait is specified and estimated for the period 1972-93. The estimated model has passed the test of validation quite well. Therefore, the model has been used to experiment with a number of possible scenarios to depict a future path of all the endogenous variables of the model. The postulated scenarios are adopted from the various policy options of Kuwait's Ministry of Planning. The results have indicated that a quick reform policy will cause a substantial decline in non-oil production and consumption. A better policy option would be to choose a policy between minor and gradual reform.     

燃油税改革对我国节能减排影响的动态CGE研究

2009年1月1日起我国实施成品油税费改革。燃油税是一种经济信号,其变动会引起一个经济体全方位的反应。采用动态CGE模型——MCHUGE模型对燃油税改革对我国节能减排的影响进行仿真研究。研究表明,燃油税改革在短期和长期均能显著降低中国的能源强度,其原因是燃油税改革优化了中国经济的产业结构,第二产业尤其是重工业在GDP中所占比重下降,减少了总体的能源消费。     

Design of reforms with time‐inconsistent voters

Widespread agreement that a political reform is necessary is no guarantee that it is actually undertaken in a timely manner. There is often a delay before action is taken and reform packages that would be most efficient to implement all at once are often done only gradually. We propose a theoretical model explaining this behavior and show that when voters have present‐biased, time‐inconsistent preferences, gradualism can arise in equilibrium and be welfare‐enhancing. This is because without the possibility for gradualism, time‐inconsistent voters would delay implementing the reform even more. Using a citizen candidate model, we allow the agenda setter, who decides which reform schedule to put to vote, to be endogenously determined. We show that voters who are aware of their own time inconsistency can use the election of the agenda setter as a commitment device and appoint an agent who is more patient than the median voter in order to avoid full procrastination and to achieve efficiency‐maximizing gradualism.     

中国上市公司股权分置改革中的利益分配研究

本文通过模型推导和实证分析探讨非流通股东和流通股东在股权分置改革中的利益分配状况,结果发现,在完成股改的公司中,大部分样本公司的两类股东在股改中获得增量收益、实现“双赢”;在流通股东和非流通股东均获得增量收益的公司中,股改的增量收益未能在两类股东间均分;非流通股比重、公司业绩、公司成长性、非流通股转成流通股份额是影响上市公司股改实际对价水平的重要因素,而流通性溢价、流通股东认可程度和非流通股转成流通股期限等因素未能在实际对价水平的确定上起到关键性作用。     

自然垄断产业市场化改革与利益集团博弈陷阱

自然垄断产业市场化改革的动态演进是利益集团博弈的结果,建立了一个自然垄断产业利益集团两阶段动态博弈模型,对自然垄断产业市场化改革的演进机理与利益格局进行分析。首次提出了自然垄断产业改革中的"利益集团博弈陷阱"的概念。     

Economic Reforms and Gender-Based Wage Inequality in the Presence of Factor Market Distortions

A simple three-sector general equilibrium model has been developed with both male and female labour and factor market distortions. The effects of different liberalized economic policies have been examined on the gender-based wage inequality. The analysis finds that credit market reform and tariff reform produce favourable effects on the wage inequality while the liberalized investment policy becomes counterproductive. The basic model has been extended to treat domestic capital differently from foreign capital. In the extended model, all of the above results hold. Additionally, it has been found that domestic capital formation is likely to produce a favourable impact on the gender wage inequality. These results have important policy implications for a small open developing economy.

     

Dynamic Effects in Senegal of the Regional Trade Agreement Among UEMOA Countries

In an international setting characterized by a proliferation of regional trade agreements, seven countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) have created a customs union. The reform raises concerns in some countries, like Senegal, where government is dependent on tariff revenues. The author builds an intertemporal general equilibrium model to analyze the dynamic effects of the reform. Simulation results highlight the desirability for Senegal to pursue regional economic integration along with an outward-looking strategy. The reform is welfare-improving and expansionary with some sectoral diversity. In the long run, government and foreign debts increase.     

Law, trade, and development

This paper uses a Ricardian model to generate predictions about the influence of institutions on trade in differentiated (complex) and commoditized (simple) products and then uses a rich international trade data set for empirical tests. The model draws the distinction between the role of international transaction costs and domestic production costs in the trade of complex and simple products. The effects of institutions predicted by the model are identified with a three-step estimation procedure. We find that when countries have low quality institutions, institutional reform primarily influences production costs and has little influence on the volume of trade. Institutional reform, however, increases the diversity of exports in complex goods markets. Conversely, in countries with more developed institutions, institutional reform primarily influences transaction costs and is associated with gains in the volume and the diversity of complex exports.     

Learning about reform: Time-varying support for structural adjustment

Political support for structural reforms can vary dramatically over time. Countries that have sustained reforms have seen their popularity grow, while others have witnessed sudden reversals of political support. Opinion can reverse itself, without any apparent provocation, when voters are learning about the effects of reform. In this model, structural adjustment causes a drop in government services and temporary unemployment. The unemployed gradually learn about when they will be re-employed. As labor markets adjust and the cost of reform is revealed, support can gradually rise, it can remain low and suddenly rise, or there can be a quick reversal of support for a previously popular policy. Cross-sectional data, event studies and case study support the explanation. Extensions consider international policies to maintain support for reform.     

中国的大国发展道路——论分权式改革的得失

本文从分权式改革的视角提供了一个自洽的逻辑框架,全面地分析了中国的发展道路。这个逻辑框架不仅能够分析中国前期改革的成功,也能够解释目前浮现的诸多社会经济问题。政治集权下的经济分权给地方政府提供了发展经济的动力,尤其是完成了地方层面的市场化和竞争性领域的民营化。但是,内生于这种激励结构的相对绩效评估又造成了城乡和地区间收入差距的持续扩大、地区之间的市场分割和公共事业的公平缺失等问题。由于中国的渐进式分权改革在很大程度上可以看作一个中央政府主导和控制下的机制设计问题,所以,在认清中国分权式改革的得失的基础上,正确地设计合理的改革方略,对于下一阶段改革的成功是至关重要的。如此,中国就可能走出一条独特的大国发展道路。     

金融综合改革项目对企业创新的影响研究——基于地级市面板数据的准自然实验

金融改革与企业创新之间联系紧密。金融综合改革试验区,是否能促进企业向高端技术迈进？此次自下而上的全方位试点工作促进企业的创新发展又具有什么经验和教训？试点工作的金融制度还应怎样优化设计安排才能进一步提升企业创新能力？对此,基于这些问题,以金融综合改革试验区与企业创新之间关系为研究对象,采集2010—2019年的相关面板数据,运用多时点双重差分模型（difference-in-difference,DID）,评估十二个国家金融综合改革试验区的政策效果,研究与讨论金融体制改革与企业创新能力之间的关系及影响,并提出对应的政策建议。研究结果表明：(1)金融综合改革试验区能促进企业创新,显著提高试验区城市的企业创新综合指数;(2)金融体系越发达的试验区促进企业创新的程度越大,金融体系可通过缓解融资约束这个途径正面影响企业创新;(3)金融综合改革试验区能有效降低风险,增强企业创新水平。     

中国垄断行业运营模式模型研究

在全球经济日趋迅速变革,产业链不断重新划分的浪潮中,运营模式创新成为企业发展的必然选择.新的市场形势下,各行业产业链都在不断细分、拆解、重构、融合,这必然对企业原有运营模式提出了创新的要求.在这样的经济和市场背景下,只有那些有能力主动调整和设计全新运营模式的企业,才能在市场中常立不败之地.而垄断行业在国民经济中占有很高的比重,但长期滞后的中国垄断行业改革中问题不断暴露,作为渐近式改革中相对容易,但很重要的运营模式改革不断进行调整,因此,选择合适的垄断行业运营模式模型——技术、市场、政府规制和价值创造系统进行分析意义重大.     

我国金融发展与经济增长关系的实证分析

金融发展与经济增长的模型显示,金融发展对我国的经济增长具有积极的推动作用,但力度有限;不同发展阶段的金融变量对经济增长表现出不同的作用效果。我国的金融发展滞后于经济增长,加快金融深化和金融体制改革有助于推动经济增长。     

The Finnish Corporate Income Tax Reform and the Financial Strategy of Firms: A General Equilibrium Approach

This paper simulates the effects of the recent Finnish corporate tax reform with a computable general equilibrium model. It shows that the impact of the reform on the capital stock depends on the reactions of firms. If the financial strategy is changed to prefer dividend distribution and share issues, the cost of capital falls and the capital stock increases. On the other hand, if the criterion of financial policy is to minimise the welfare loss of current shareholders, the earlier financial behaviour should be continued. In that case,the induced higher cost of capital leads to a lower capital stock. The overall welfare evaluation of the tax reform is not sensitive to the regime shift: the reform should not have been implemented. This is because the increase in interest income taxation distorts saving decisions, expands the net foreign debt of the economy and weakens the terms of trade.     

欧盟碳排放权交易体系第三阶段改革对碳价格的影响

欧盟碳排放权交易体系第三阶段改革成效显著,研究其关键改革政策对碳市场的影响,将为我国的碳市场建设提供一定的经验借鉴。本文选取了第三阶段三项主要改革政策——配额总量递减、折量拍卖、市场稳定储备机制作为评估对象,以第三阶段欧盟碳配额期货价格的日度数据为被解释变量,三大改革政策为解释变量,采用时间序列协整模型和向量误差修正模型对各因素的影响作出评估。研究结果表明,各项改革政策都与碳配额期货价格呈正向协整关系,通过改善市场供求失衡状况,有效推动了第三阶段碳价格的提高,对减排企业形成了长效的激励和约束,提高了欧盟碳排放权交易体系的运行效率。因此,我国在建立和完善碳排放权交易体系进程中,要根据本国情况合理设置配额总量和配额分配方式,设置配额柔性调整机制,不断提高市场流动性,促进碳价格的提高,保证碳排放权交易市场的稳定发展。     

寡头垄断、风险竞争与中小银行的发展困境:2001-2006

金融市场开放和改革使我国中小银行得到了较快发展,但也逐步陷入了风险扩张而绩效下滑的困境中.运用基于Stackelberg模型构建的寡头垄断市场银行风险竞争模型来对中小银行发展困境进行的实证研究发现,在资金价格(存贷款利率)受到严格管制的垄断市场中,银行间的竞争将会导致银行体系风险水平与资产规模的不断扩张,而不是经营绩效的持续提升.要使中小银行摆脱发展困境并得到健康发展,必须在培育银行业专业化分工的同时逐渐打破银行体系的垄断格局,推进利率市场化,放开对资金价格的严格限制,使中小银行的非价格竞争劣势转变为价格竞争优势;同时加强对中小银行的监管,为其营造一个公平竞争的市场环境.