Institutional Portfolio Flows and International Investments

Using a new technique, and weekly data for 25 countries from1994 to 1998, we analyze the relationship between institutionalcross-border portfolio flows, and domestic and foreign equityreturns. In emerging markets, institutional flows forecast statisticallyindistinguishable movements in country closed-end fund NAV returnsand price returns. In contrast, closed-end fund flows forecastprice returns, but not NAV returns. Furthermore, institutionalflows display trend-following (trend-reversing) behavior inresponse to symmetric (asymmetric) movements in NAV and pricereturns. The results suggest that institutional cross-borderflows are linked to fundamentals, while closed-end fund flowsare a source of price pressure in the short run.     

International Portfolio Investment: Theory, Evidence, and Institutional Framework

At first sight, the idea of investing internationally seems exciting and full of promise because of the many benefits of international portfolio investment. By investing in foreign securities, investors can participate in the growth of other countries, hedge their consumption basket against exchange rate risk, realize diversification effects and take advantage of market segmentation on a global scale. Even though these advantages might appear attractive, the risks of and constraints for international portfolio investment must not be overlooked. In an international context, financial investments are not only subject to currency risk and political risk, but there are many institutional constraints and barriers, significant among them a host of tax issues. These constraints, while being reduced by technology and policy, support the case for internationally segmented securities markets, with concomitant benefits for those who manage to overcome the barriers in an effective manner.     

证券投资基金投资组合与投资策略的匹配性研究

对证券投资基金行为选择的研究，一直是金融经济学关注的焦点问题之一。本文对我国证券投资基金投资组合的构建和调整与其投资策略的匹配性问题进行了研究，发现绝大部分证券投资基金存在实际投资所承担的风险远远偏离其投资策略所表明的风险偏好类型。同时，由于市场环境的变化，无论是风险偏好型还是风险中性的基金，在实际投资中大多转型成了风险规避型基金。     

Investment Decisions Depend on Portfolio Disclosures

A weekly database of retail money fund portfolio statistics is uneconomical for retail investors to observe, so it allows direct comparison of disclosed and undisclosed portfolios. This makes possible a more direct and unambiguous test for "window dressing" than elsewhere in the literature. The analysis shows that funds allocating between government and private issues hold more in government issues around disclosures than at other times, consistent with the theory that intermediaries prefer to disclose safer portfolios. Cross-sectional comparisons locate the most intense rebalancing in the worst recent performers.     

权证对投资者投资偏好影响的实证研究

金融衍生产品的出现提高了证券市场信息传递的速度，知情交易者通过对衍生品的投资提高传递的效率。本文通过对我国权证市场和相应标的股票市场交易高频数据的研究，探讨知情交易者在权证市场出现后是否改变了投资的对象。实证结果表明，尽管有部分知情交易者投资了认购权证，但是并没有证据表明知情交易者偏好认沽权证。造成这一结果的原因可能是权证制度自身的缺陷。     

Transparency and International Portfolio Holdings

Does country transparency affect international portfolio investment? We examine this question by constructing new measures of transparency and by making use of a unique microdata set on portfolio holdings of emerging market funds around the world. We distinguish between government and corporate transparency. There is clear evidence that funds systematically invest less in less transparent countries. Moreover, funds have a greater propensity to exit nontransparent countries during crises.     

市场的非理性与组合投资策略

与国外学对美国股票市场的研究结果不同，中国股票市场并不存在动量效应：相反，中国股市却存在一种“轮涨效应”或“补涨效应”，即平均而言，前一段时期内涨幅较小的股票在以后一段时期的表现会比前一段时期内涨幅较高的股票表现更为良好。这个结果同中国证券市场长期以来存在的个股轮番炒作现象是相吻合的。     

Global Economic Divergence and Portfolio Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

This paper studies the role of global and regional variations in economic activity and policy in developed world in driving portfolio capital flows (PCFs) to emerging markets (EMs). Results suggest that PCFs to EMs depend mainly on economic activity at the global level and monetary policy in America and Asia, positively on the former and negatively on the latters. PCFs are procyclical with respect to global activity, but countercyclical to regional activity. In aggregate, regional variations contribute more than global variations. This implies that economic divergence in the developed world can have significant effects on EMs via PCFs.     

Systemic Risk and International Portfolio Choice

Returns on international equities are characterized by jumps; moreover, these jumps tend to occur at the same time across countries leading to systemic risk. We capture these stylized facts using a multivariate system of jump‐diffusion processes where the arrival of jumps is simultaneous across assets. We then determine an investor's optimal portfolio for this model of returns. Systemic risk has two effects: One, it reduces the gains from diversification and two, it penalizes investors for holding levered positions. We find that the loss resulting from diminished diversification is small, while that from holding very highly levered positions is large.     

基于copula的投资组合选择模型的研究

本文首先介绍了投资组合理论与copula,然后给出基于概率P0的收益率等定义,建立基于概率P0的收益率的投资组合选择模型并给出具体解法,接着通过选取上证领先指数与深证领先指数2004年9月1日至2006年5月26日的日收盘数据进行实证分析,发现在收益率(基于概率的收益率)一定的情况下,通过投资组合可以降低风险.     

中国养老基金投资组合分析

在中国既有的资本市场约束条件下，利用有限的投资工具和较低的回报率实现中国养老这部分基金的保值增值。是中国养老基金运作必须解决的一个基本问题。本文根据中国养老基金投资组合策略自身的特点，首先对一个简化的投资风险最优模型进行了分析；其次利用风险最优模型研究了养老基金的投资组合，并在此基础上针对中国养老基金的投资策略提出相关的看法。     

保本基金的投资组合保险策略运用及建议

保本基金的运作核心是投资组合保险策略，我国保本基金均采用简单参数的组合保险策略。在国内零息债券缺乏、股市波动大的情况下，如何设定最低保险额度、合理的风险放大倍数以及动态调整风险资产比例，成为保本基金运作的难题。本首先简要介绍了投资组合保险策略原理，在此基础上分析了国内保本基金的组合保险策略，然后结合运作原理提出改进建议。     

基于copula的投资组合选择模型的研究

本文首先介绍了投资组合理论与copula,然后给出基于概率的收益率等定义,建立基于概率的收益率的投资组合选择模型并给出具体解法,接着通过选取上证领先指数与深证领先指数2004年9月1日至2006年5月26日的日收盘数据进行实证分析,发现在收益率(基于概率的收益率)一定的情况下,通过投资组合可以降低风险。pápápá     

Portfolio Capital Flows in Thailand: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

We study the gross and net terms of portfolio capital flows by examining their determinants. Through the application of the Bayesian model averaging method, the determinants are evaluated by a set of models instead of a single specification. Our findings show that the magnitude of both gross equity and gross debt flows are large, relative to their net terms. Equity inflows and outflows are quite symmetric with similar determinants; debt inflows and outflows are less symmetric. The paper provides partial evidence to support the importance of both internal and external factors as determinants of capital flows.     

Regulatory Arbitrage and International Bank Flows

We study whether cross‐country differences in regulations have affected international bank flows. We find strong evidence that banks have transferred funds to markets with fewer regulations. This form of regulatory arbitrage suggests there may be a destructive “race to the bottom” in global regulations, which restricts domestic regulators’ ability to limit bank risk‐taking. However, we also find that the links between regulation differences and bank flows are significantly stronger if the recipient country is a developed country with strong property rights and creditor rights. This suggests that, while differences in regulations have important influences, without a strong institutional environment, lax regulations are not enough to encourage massive capital flows.     

美国谨慎投资者规则与现代投资组合理论——以受托人的谨慎义务为视角

谨慎投资者规则是英美法系指导受托人投资的基本原则，其衍生于受托人的谨慎义务，先后经历了谨慎人规则，哈佛学院规则和新谨慎投资者规则。现代投资组合理论是美国新谨慎投资者规则的经济学渊源，后者融入了现代投资组合理论的精髓，值得我国在信托投资立法时借鉴。     

论我国海外证券投资的重要性及其投资组合管理

本文探讨了在金融资本一体化背景下,我国进行海外投资的必要性和意义。我国经济的高速增长和外汇储备的不断累积为我国境外投资提供了物质基础,对于我国外币资产的保值增值需求成为境外投资的内在动力;随着我国经济发展逐步进入转型阶段,海外证券投资和资本运作将成为我国经济成功转型必不可少的要件之一;海外证券投资是对国内较为狭窄的投资渠道的一种良好补充,为境内投资者提供了分散化解风险的投资方式。本文还利用过去8年全球资本市场的历史数据和现代金融理论,分析了全球投资和资产配置对投资者带来的实际收益。     

商业银行个人理财业务投资组合研究

个人理财业务具有批量大、风险低、业务范围广、经营收益稳定等优势,在当今商业银行业务中的地位越来越重要。它不仅是一家商业银行高赢利性业务的重要组成部分,还是商业银行之间竞争成败的关键因素之一。我国商业银行的个人理财业务起步较晚,目前只限于银行现有产品的简单组合,真正能帮客户理财,能实现增值的产品不多。笔者认为,用投资组合理论来指导个人理财业务,提供个性化、专业化的个人理财服务是明智的选择。本文着重阐述投资组合理论在个人理财业务中模型的建立、应用及成果检验。