REIT Stock Splits and Market Efficiency

An analysis of real estate investment trust (REIT) stock splits is presented. Evaluation of the initial reaction to split REITs supports efficient market pricing where REITs generate statistically significant positive announcement date returns, no statistically significant record date returns, and muted ex-date returns. In the long-term, split REITs do not consistently out perform benchmark portfolios over one-year, two-year, and three-year periods. REITs split subsequent to a substantial run up in stock price and to improve the position of their post split stock price relative to the stock price of the typical REIT.     

The financing decisions of REITs: The case of warrant extensions

In this paper, we examine the warrant price and stock price reactions to the announcement of warrant life extensions by REITs. As predicted by option pricing theory, warrant prices increase in response to these extensions. The stocks of REITs making the extension announcements experience average abnormal returns that are not significantly different from zero. Thus, total firm value appears to increase, with the gains accruing primarily to the warrantholders.     

Real Earnings Management,Liquidity Risk and REITs SEO Dynamics

We analyze how REITs managers use real earnin gs management to address issues of liquidity risk and increased cost of capital they face during seasoned equity offerings. We show that REITs managers engage in real earnings management instead of accrual earnings management to attract more uninformed trading in order to provide the liquidity service at a lower cost during seasoned equity offerings. We find REITs with higher liquidity risk are more likely to manipulate earnings prior to equity offerings and uninformed trading is higher following real earnings management. Firms set the offer price at a smaller discount after engaging in real earnings management and stock returns decline in the long run. The findings are consistent with real option and liquidity risk explanations for equity offerings.     

Asymmetric Correlation and Volatility Dynamics among Stock, Bond, and Securitized Real Estate Markets

We apply a multivariate asymmetric generalized dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model to daily index returns of S&P500, US corporate bonds, and their real estate counterparts (REITs and CMBS) from 1999 to 2008. We document, for the first time, evidence for asymmetric volatilities and correlations in CMBS and REITs. Due to their high levels of leverage, REIT returns exhibit stronger asymmetric volatilities. Also, both REIT and stock returns show strong evidence of asymmetries in their conditional correlation, suggesting reduced hedging potential of REITs against the stock market downturn during the sample period. There is also evidence that corporate bonds and CMBS may provide diversification benefits for stocks and REITs. Furthermore, we demonstrate that default spread and stock market volatility play a significant role in driving dynamics of these conditional correlations and that there is a significant structural break in the correlations caused by the recent financial crisis.     

The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums in Real Estate Returns

We examine the predictable components of returns on stocks, bonds, and real estate investment trusts (REITs). We employ a multiple-beta asset pricing model and find that there are varying degrees of predictability among stocks, bonds, and REITs. Furthermore, we find that most of the predictability of returns is associated with the economic variables employed in the asset pricing model. The stock market risk premium is highly important in capturing the predictable variation in stock portfolios, and the bond market risk premiums (term and risk structure of interest rates) are important in capturing the predictable variation in bond portfolios. For REITs, however, both the stock and bond market risk premiums capture the predictable variation in returns. REITs have comparable return predictability to stock portfolios. We conclude that there is an important economic risk premium for REITs that are not captured by traditional multiple-beta asset pricing models.     

Tracking the Evolution of Idiosyncratic Risk and Cross-Sectional Expected Returns for US REITs

This paper adopts the methodology in Bali and Cakici (Journal of Financial & Quantitative Analysis, 43, 29–58, 2008) in tracking the evolution of the relation between equity REITs’ idiosyncratic risk and their cross-sectional expected returns between 1981 and 2010. In addition to the full sample period, we study this relation for (i) January 1981–December 1992, (ii) January 1993–September 2001, (iii) November 2001–August 2008 and (iv) November 2001–December 2010 and produce empirical results for (i) all sample REITs, (ii) REITs with a price greater than $10 or (iii) REITs with a price greater than $5. Each period represents different dynamics (including the Global Financial Crisis) in the life of the REIT industry and leads to a different hypothesis. Further, we present comparative results based on the Fama-French 3- and 4-factor models. Overall, we document a negative relation between idiosyncratic risk and cross-sectional expected returns and demonstrate that this negative relation changes over time. These findings amplify the “idiosyncratic volatility puzzle,” as reported in the recent finance literature. Interestingly, REITs with a price of $5-to-$10 do well in 2009 and 2010. Further, the momentum factor appears to be influential since the first-ever listing of a REIT in the S&P500 Index in early October 2001.     

THE DAY-OF-THE-WEEK ANOMALY: THE TORONTO STOCK EXCHANGE EXPERIENCE

This paper studies the day-of-the-week effect employing Canadian stock returns from January 1, 1975 to June 30, 1989. The study finds that, as opposed to large capitalization stocks, low capitalization (thinly-traded) stocks tend to have a larger negative return on Tuesday rather than on Monday - possibly due to lags in the price adjustment of these stocks following the release of negative information. Two main issues are investigated in an attempt to explain the day-of-the-week effect and its persistence over time: (a) the role of dividends, and (b) the role of information flows. The study finds that firms are much more likely to go ex-dividend on Monday than on any other day of the week; however, after correcting for the dividend effect, Monday's returns are still significantly negative. With respect to information flows, we find evidence consistent with an information-flows-related explanation of the day-of-the-week effect, particularly with the idea that macro announcements cause negative Monday returns.     

Capital Structure Theory and REIT Security Offerings

In this paper, we examine the stock price reactions to announcements of new security offerings by Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). REITs offer a unique setting in which to study these events because they do not pay taxes at the firm level. Theory suggests that the net tax gain to corporate borrowing is unambiguously negative for a REIT. Contrary to some recent studies, however, we find a positive stock price reaction to debt offerings, while the negative equity-issuance effect is preserved. Further empirical evidence lends support to signalling as the explanation for the positive significant debt-issuance effect.     

Risk-Adjusted Day-of-the-Week, Day-of-the-Month, and Month-of-the-Year Effects on Stock Indexes and Stock Index Futures

This study uses risk-adjusted returns based on the Sharpe Performance Measure to evaluate the presence of three anomalies in two stock index futures, the futures of a smaller firm synthetic index, and their respective underlying spot indexes. The three anomalies are the day-of-the-week, the month-of-the-year, and the day-of-the-month effects. Using the nonparametric Kruskal-Wallis test, we find more evidence of day-of-the-week and day-of-the-month effects in futures index price behavior than in their underlying spot indexes. The January effect is found to be more pronounced for spot indexes than for stock index futures contracts. It is also more pronounced in the smaller firm synthetic index. Our results tend to disagree with efficient market proponents.     

REIT Characteristics and the Sensitivity of REIT Returns

Previous research on the returns to real estate investment trusts (REITs) has considered whether REITs are systematically exposed to general stock-market risk and interest-rate risk. This study examines how the sensitivity of REIT returns to these factors may be influenced by various REIT characteristics. Using a sample of publicly traded REITs, we estimate the sensitivity of REIT returns to stock market and interest-rate changes. We then propose and implement a model for testing whether differences in asset structure, financial leverage, management strategy, and degree of specialization in the REIT portfolios are related to their sensitivity to interest rate and market risk. Our results permit us to offer some inferences about how REITs can alter their risk exposure by managing these characteristics.     

What Determines Stock Price Synchronicity in REITs?

This paper studies the behavior of REIT stock price synchronicity for the years 1997 through 2006. Theory suggests that REIT stock prices should be largely independent of market changes; and, at the very least, REITs should have a low covariance with other assets, including other REIT stocks. The evidence presented below does not support this view. Instead, synchronicity appears to be quite high in the equity REIT market, especially among REITs that larger and more liquid. We also find that REIT stock price synchronicity is negatively related to hedge fund ownership, but positively related to pension fund and insurance company ownership. The evidence further suggests that synchronicity is the highest among industrial and regional mall REITs, and lower among apartment, health care, and mixed property REITs.     

REIT Risk Premium Sensitivity and Interest Rates

This analysis investigates several aspects of the relationship between daily REIT stock risk premiums and various interest rates. Consistent with prior research, the general findings indicate that interest rates do impact REIT returns. This study specifically finds that stock returns are more sensitive to maturity rate spread between short- and long-term treasuries than the credit rate spread between commercial bonds and treasuries. In addition, the analyses document a structural model shift during the nineties that has made REITs more sensitive to credit risk. In additional to change in investor clientele, an analysis of declining REIT credit-worthiness points to a root cause for this shift.     

STOCK PRICE AND DEGREE OF NEGLECT AS DETERMINANTS OF STOCK RETURNS

In prior research the neglected firm effect persists even after controlling for firm size. Several recent studies show that the size effect is a stock price effect. In the present study we investigate whether excess returns on neglected stocks are a manifestation of a stock price effect. Although material evidence supporting an independent neglected firm effect is still found, results are much weaker than in prior studies. Examining a large sample of New York Stock Exchange and American Stock Exchange stocks from 1977 to 1988, we find that both January and non-January months do not have a statistically significant neglect effect after controlling for a price effect.     

RELATIVE STOCK PRICES AND THE FIRM SIZE EFFECT

A stock's relative price ratio, defined as the ratio of the current price to the average of the highest and lowest prices over some holding period, is shown to be a better predictor of future stock returns than firm size. The price ratio has an even stronger January seasonality than does firm size. After controlling for price ratio variations, firm size has no significant relationship to return. The abnormal returns for the price ratio effect are consistent with those predicted by optimal tax selling considerations.     

Institutional Investors, Analyst Following, and the January Anomaly

Average stock returns for small, low stock price firms are higher in January than for the rest of the year. Two explanations have received a great deal of attention: tax-loss selling and gamesmanship. This paper documents that seasonality in returns is not a phenomenon observed only for small firms' stock or those with low prices. Strong seasonality in excess returns is reported for a sample of widely followed firms. Sample firms have unusually low excess returns in January and returns adjust upward over the year. These results are consistent with the gamesmanship hypothesis, but not the tax-loss-selling hypothesis.     

Institutional Investors, Analyst Following, and the January Anomaly

Average stock returns for small, low stock price firms are higher in January than for the rest of the year. Two explanations have received a great deal of attention: tax-loss selling and gamesmanship. This paper documents that seasonality in returns is not a phenomenon observed only for small firms' stock or those with low prices. Strong seasonality in excess returns is reported for a sample of widely followed firms. Sample firms have unusually low excess returns in January and returns adjust upward over the year. These results are consistent with the gamesmanship hypothesis, but not the tax-loss-selling hypothesis.     

Momentum Profitability and Market Trend: Evidence from REITs

This study investigates Real Estate Investment Trusts’ momentum returns in different market states, and explains the momentum phenomenon with a risk-based dividend growth theory of Johnson (Journal of Finance 57:585–608, 2002). Our results show that momentum returns of REITs are higher during up markets. This study finds that winners’ dividend/price ratios are higher than those of losers, and momentum returns are positively correlated with the difference between winners’ and losers’ dividend/price ratios. We also find that momentum returns are higher after the legislation change of REITs in 1992, and that dividend/price ratios of REITs are also higher after 1992, suggesting that a persistent shock to REIT’s dividend/price ratios in 1992 partly explains REITs’ higher momentum returns after 1992. In sum, results of this study suggest that momentum returns of REITs can be jointly explained by a time-varying factor (market state) and a cross-sectional variance in dividend yields.

The pricing of firms with expected losses/profits: The role of January

We examine the role of January in the relation between expected losses/profits and future stock returns. We predict and find that the relation between expected losses/profits and future returns reverses from the usual positive relation in non‐January months to a negative one in January. The reverse January relation is consistent across sample years, is observed in the United States and international markets, and is incremental to other variables associated with January returns. At least part of the reverse January relation is explained by tax‐loss selling. Further analysis shows that the reverse January relation results in a temporary price drift away from fundamental value. In other words, we find that abnormal positive (negative) future returns do not always indicate past under(over)valuation. Overall, our results illustrate the importance of controlling for the effect of January when examining how investors price expected losses/profits.     

Fundamental Drivers of Dependence in REIT Returns

We analyse the empirical relationships between firm fundamentals and the dependence structure between individual REIT and stock market returns. In contrast to previous studies, we distinguish between the average systematic risk of REITs and their asymmetric risk in the sense of a disproportionate likelihood of joint negative return clusters between REITs and the stock market. We find that REITs with low systematic risk are typically small, with low short-term momentum, low turnover, high growth opportunities and strong long-term momentum. Holding systematic risk constant, the main driving forces of asymmetric risk are leverage and, to some extent, short-term momentum. Specifically, we find that leverage has an asymmetric effect on REIT return dependence that outweighs the extent to which it increases the average sensitivity of REIT equity to market fluctuations, explaining the strong negative impact of leverage on firm performance especially during crisis periods that has been documented in recent empirical work.     

The effects of newly listed derivatives in a thin stock market

This study examines the informational feedback effects associated to the listing and trading of derivatives in Switzerland. The observed changes in the price and higher moments of stock returns are representative of a thin stock market. The listing of stock options and index futures generated positive abnormal returns for large stocks and for the index while small stocks essentially benefited from the launching of index options. While reducing the variance of blue chips and of the index, their variance's stochasticity increased (decreased) at index options' (futures) listings. Finally, we detect significant stock and index derivatives' price leads which do not however generate arbitrage opportunities.