Nonlinear mean reversion in the term structure of interest rates

The expectations hypothesis implies that the yield curve provides information on the future change in the short-term interest rate. However, transaction costs exist in the financial market, which prevent investors from realizing the arbitrage opportunity, when the arbitrage does not fully cover the transaction costs. The purpose of this paper is to assess the effect of transaction costs on the predictability of the term structure by using the threshold vector error correction model, which allows for the nonlinear adjustment to the long-run equilibrium relationship. A significant amount of threshold effect is found, and the adjustment coefficients are regime-dependent. The empirical result supports the nonlinear mean reversion in the term structure of interest rates.     

Hedonic analysis of a housing market in disequilibrium

This paper tests the hypothesis that information about housing market activity and about specific dwellings becomes capitalized into single family dwelling prices through a disequilibrium adjustment process. A dynamic price adjustment model, which is an extension of the standard hedonic model widely used in the literature, is derived, specified, and tested with both micro and aggregated data from the city of Chicago and for the period 1972–1976. The results show that from 32 to 75% of the variance in dwelling prices, unexplained by the standard hedonic attributes under assumptions of equilibrium, is explained by market activity signals such as mortgage interest rates and neighborhood transaction rates of the preceding period. Dwellings about which there is less information, making comparison pricing difficult, are shown to command a price premium. The standard equilibrium hypothesis appears readily rejectable and better predictions are obtained from the disequilibrium specifications. Several directions for extending this line of research are discussed.     

An examination of the equilibrium specification and structure of production for Canadian telecommunications

Multiple-output models of Canadian telecommunications production are estimated under different production equilibria. A specification test is conducted between the short- and long-run equilibrium models and the long-run equilibrium is rejected. In order to capture the nature of the disequilibrium, a dynamic cost of adjustment model is estimated for Bell Canada. There are significant adjustment costs and it is estimated that for $1.00 of marginal capital costs the carrier must incur an additional cost of $0.30 to install the new capital into the production process.     

Testing affine term structure models in case of transaction costs

We empirically analyze the impact of transaction costs on the performance of essentially affine interest rate models. We test the implied Euler restrictions and calculate the specification error bound of Hansen and Jagannathan to measure model misspecification. Using both short-maturity and long-maturity bond return data we find, under the assumption of frictionless markets, strong evidence of misspecification of affine yield models with up to three factors. Next, we incorporate transaction costs in our tests. The results show that the evidence of misspecification of essentially affine yield models disappears in case of monthly holding periods at market size transaction costs.     

Long and Short Run Determinants of Small and Medium Size Enterprise Share: The Case of Venezuelan Manufacturing

Two recent studies of SME share determination have employed a partial adjustment model which specifies disequilibrium as the sole means of explanation. Contemporaneous information is found to be crucial in both analyses and suggests forward looking behaviour in the equilibrium specification. Time series data available for Venezuela allows the testing of such an equilibrium using the Engle and Granger (1987) error correction methodology. We find that current dated variables are important in the short rather than long run determination of SME shares and that only information known at the time the equilibrium is formed enters the long run component. The primary factors explaining equilibrium share are barriers to entry, factor mix, enterprise modernisation and a new exogenous proxy variable, GDP. The main determinants of short run movements are factor mix and enterprise modernisation. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Unemployment,disequilibrium and the short run phillips curve: An econometric approach

The paper specifies a disequilibrium model for the aggregate labour market consisting of demand and supply functions for labour, an adjustment equation for wages as well as for prices, a transactions equation and, finally, an equation that relates measured unemployment to vacancies and to excess demand. The model has a more sophisticated treatment of dynamics than earlier disequilibrium models. The parameter estimates and the goodness-of-fit are satisfactory and the model's implications for the behaviour of several important variables are sensible. In particular, excess demand estimates computed in various ways are reasonable.     

Mixed random forest,cointegration, and forecasting gasoline prices

One of the most successful forecasting machine learning (ML) procedures is random forest (RF). In this paper, we propose a new mixed RF approach for modeling departures from linearity that helps identify (i) explanatory variables with nonlinear impacts, (ii) threshold values, and (iii) the closest parametric approximation. The methodology is applied to weekly forecasts of gasoline prices, cointegrated with international oil prices and exchange rates. Recent specifications for nonlinear error correction (NEC) models include threshold autoregressive models (TAR) and double-threshold smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models. We propose a new mixed RF model specification strategy and apply it to the determinants of weekly prices of the Spanish gasoline market from 2010 to 2019. In particular, the mixed RF is able to identify nonlinearities in both the error correction term and the rate of change of oil prices. It provides the best weekly gasoline price forecasting performance and supports the logistic error correction model (ECM) approximation.     

Further Evidence on PPP Adjustment Speeds: the Case of Effective Real Exchange Rates and the EMS*

Two different approaches intend to resolve the ‘puzzling’ slow convergence to purchasing power parity (PPP) reported in the literature [see Rogoff (1996) , Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 34.] On the one hand, there are models that consider a non‐linear adjustment of real exchange rate to PPP induced by transaction costs. Such costs imply the presence of a certain transaction band where adjustment is too costly to be undertaken. On the other hand, there are models that relax the ‘classical’ PPP assumption of constant equilibrium real exchange rates. A prominent theory put together by Balassa (1964, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 72) and Samuelson (1964 Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 46) , the BS effect, suggests that a non‐constant real exchange rate equilibrium is induced by different productivity growth rates between countries. This paper reconciles those two approaches by considering an exponential smooth transition‐in‐deviation non‐linear adjustment mechanism towards non‐constant equilibrium real exchange rates within the EMS (European Monetary System) and effective rates. The equilibrium is proxied, in a theoretically appealing manner, using deterministic trends and the relative price of non‐tradables to proxy for BS effects. The empirical results provide further support for the hypothesis that real exchange rates are well described by symmetric, nonlinear processes. Furthermore, the half‐life of shocks in such models is found to be dramatically shorter than that obtained in linear models.     

Profit opportunities with the American put-call parity when dividends are not expected

The objective of this research is to study borrowing and lending profit opportunities with the put-call parity of American options when dividends on the stock are not expected. Studying profit opportunities embedded in the put-call parity is intriguing because of their relative simplicity. The only assumptions necessary for the parity to hold are that option markets are frictionless and generate efficient prices of puts and calls around the underlying stock price. For this reason alone (parsimony of postulates) the put-call parity is a tempting vehicle for studying option market efficiency. In this work it is shown that both synthetic lending and borrowing parities (before and after transaction costs), on average and ex post, have negative expected profits (i.e. put-call parity implied rates are inferior to the observed riskless rate). When certain trading rules are established, however, empirical evidence of substantial profit opportunities with both lending and borrowing with the American parity (even after considering transaction costs) is observed. It is also shown that these opportunities are greater for some stocks than for others. The existence of these disparities might be an indication that the pricing mechanism of the respective options is not always in sync. The duration of disequilibrium between the options market and the stock market suggests that such occurrences are not just random bursts.     

融资融券交易价格发现功能研究——基于标的证券确定与调整的视角

作为一项基础性证券制度,融资融券交易通常具有价格发现功能。为了更加清晰地认识融资融券交易的价格发现功能,文章利用沪深证券市场融资融券标的证券确定与调整事件进行实证分析。研究结果表明,融资融券交易的业务发展失衡,融资交易有助于提升标的证券的市场价格,融资融券交易的价格发现功能有待进一步发挥。     

Transaction costs, capital-gains taxes, and housing demand

The paper considers the effect of transaction costs—particularly in the form of capital-gains taxes—on the aggregate demand for owner-occupied housing. The framework is an overlapping-generations model, where consumers can avoid the transaction costs (taxes) by keeping the same house for both periods of life. The first part of the paper analyzes the consumer's choice problem. It distinguishes between costs that are fixed irrespective of the size of the house bought or sold, and costs such as capital-gains taxes that are related to the house value. It is shown that higher transaction costs have lock-in effects, inducing consumers to keep the same house for both periods. Also it is found that under a wide variety of circumstances the amount of housing demanded will increase as the household is being locked in. Finally, the paper looks at the effects on aggregate demand from an increase in capital-gains taxes. It is shown that an increased rate of taxation decreases demand for low tax rates. But for high tax rates, when lock-in effects become important, one generally gets the opposite effect; high tax rates tend to increase housing demand.     

期权“隐含波动率微笑”成因分析

Black-Scholes期权定价模型低估深实值和深虚值期权的现象称为“波动率微笑”。其主要原因是资产价格过程假设和市场机制因素给期权卖方的△套期保值带来了额外风险和成本。确定波动率和随机波动率研究都对BS模型做出了修正。     

Testing a discrete switching disequilibrium model of the UK labour market

This paper develops a test procedure for serial correlation for discrete switching disequilibrium models which include both an endogenous price adjustment equation and lagged dependent variables. The tests are applied to a model of the UK labour market and the model is respecified in the light of the test results.     

A threshold error-correction model for intraday futures and index returns

Index-futures arbitragers only enter into the market if the deviation from the arbitrage relation is sufficiently large to compensate for transaction costs and associated interest rate and dividend risks. We estimate the band around the theoretical futures price within which arbitrage is not profitable for most arbitragers, using a threshold autoregression model. Combining these thresholds with an error-correction model, we show that the impact of the mispricing error is increasing with the magnitude of that error and that the information effect of lagged futures returns on index returns is significantly larger when the mispricing error is negative. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sunk Costs, Contestability, and the Latent Contract Market

The idea that an industry with sunk costs may be contestable even in the absence of long-term contracts has received little attention informal economic theory yet is sometimes popular among practitioners. This paper formally illustrates the argument. In an infinitely repeated game, there exists a class of contestable outcomes in which the monopolist sells only on the spot market and charges low prices along the equilibrium path to prevent customers from resorting to long-term contracts. The crucial test for contestability is the level of transaction costs in the latent contract market.     

An Equilibrium Model Endogenizing the Emergence of a Dual Structure between the Urban and Rural Sectors

This paper presents a general equilibrium model which formalizes the trade-off between economies of specialization and transaction costs. The comparative statics, based on corner solutions, indicate that the general equilibrium will shift between several market structures as transaction efficiency is improved. Introducing a differential in transaction efficiency between the agricultural and manufacturing sectors, we derive the emergence of a city from the evolution of the division of labor, which is driven by improvements in transaction efficiency. The division of labor is necessary but not sufficient for the emergence of cities. A sufficiently high transaction efficiency will make a city emerge from a high level of division of labor between specialized manufacturers.     

ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF ASYMMETRIC PRICE TRANSMISSION

Abstract In this paper, we review the existing empirical literature on price asymmetries in commodities, providing a way to classify and compare different studies that are highly heterogeneous in terms of econometric models, type of asymmetries and empirical findings. Relative to the previous literature, this paper is novel in several respects. First, it presents a detailed and updated survey of the existing empirical contributions on price asymmetries in the transmission mechanism linking input prices to output prices. Second, this paper presents an extension of the traditional distinction between long‐run and short‐run asymmetries to new categories of asymmetries, such as: contemporaneous impact, distributed lag effect, cumulated impact, reaction time, equilibrium and momentum equilibrium adjustment path, regime effect, regime equilibrium adjustment path. Each empirical study is then critically discussed in the light of this new classification of asymmetries. Third, this paper evaluates the relative merits of the most popular econometric models for price asymmetries, namely autoregressive distributed lags, partial adjustments, error correction models, regime switching and vector autoregressive models. Finally, we use the meta‐regression analysis to investigate whether the results of asymmetry tests are not model‐invariant and find which additional factors systematically influence the rejection of the null hypothesis of symmetric price adjustment. The main results of our survey can be summarized as follows: (i) each econometric model is specialized to capture a subset of asymmetries; (ii) each asymmetry is better investigated by a subset of econometric models; (iii) the general significance of the F test for asymmetric price transmission depends mainly on characteristics of the data, dynamic specification of the econometric model, and market characteristics. Overall, our empirical findings confirm that asymmetry, in all its forms, is very likely to occur in a wide range of markets and econometric models.     

The importance of client heterogeneity in predicting make-or-buy decisions

Scholars have begun to merge the transaction cost economics and capabilities perspectives to examine outsourcing decisions. Further integrating these perspectives with intermediation theory, we assert that a firm's decision to use an intermediary when entering a foreign market is largely a function of the intermediary's relative capabilities and relative transaction costs (i.e., relative advantage). We hypothesize that the intermediary's relative advantage is influenced by three significantly intertwined exchange conditions: client heterogeneity, intermediary risk, and firm learning. Using a sample of 929 new foreign market initiatives by a global consulting firm, our results support our theory.     

Modelling and forecasting stock returns: exploiting the futures market,regime shifts and international spillovers

This paper proposes a vector equilibrium correction model of stock returns that exploits the information in the futures market, while allowing for both regime‐switching behaviour and international spillovers across stock market indices. Using data for three major stock market indices since 1989, we find that: (i) in sample, our model outperforms several alternative models on the basis of standard statistical criteria; (ii) in out‐of‐sample forecasting, our model does not produce significant gains in terms of point forecasts relative to more parsimonious alternative specifications, but it does so both in terms of market timing ability and in density forecasting performance. The economic value of the density forecasts is illustrated with an application to a simple risk management exercise. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The stochastic implications of rent maximization: an application to stumpage rates for timber in British Columbia

We construct a model of rent‐maximizing behaviour by a single seller of timber in the absence of a formal market, deriving the stochastic implications of rent maximization for timber prices (stumpage rates) when other input and output (lumber) prices are random. Subsequently, we examine the model's ability to describe monthly, time‐series, stumpage‐rate data from British Columbia, Canada between January 1979 and October 1999. Deviations of stumpage rates from their long‐run trend are also structured by an error‐correction model which suggests that between 13 and 20% of period‐to‐period changes in stumpage rates can be explained by an equilibrium adjustment term. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.